Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
Apple is a fantastic stock to own in the long term. Here are a few reasons why:

1) Their following is fanatical and obsessed with owning only Apple products. These individuals would need a substantial reason to defect to competitor product. For instance, when they compare the S3 to the iPhone and see the differences are insignificant, they will stick with Apple.
2) Their international markets have tremendous growth potential (ie China). This alone could drive huge future growth.
3) They are perceived to be the highest quality technology product. Consumers who want the "best" are by default attracted to Apple.
4) They have 137 billion in cash. Fund managers love the prospects of this money.
5) Apple has an ecosystem that locks-in customers. If someone owns an Apple TV, it makes sense to buy the iPhone over an Android phone since the iPhone integrates nicely with the other Apple product.
6) Novel products allow for the creation of entirely new markets. These lead to massive increases in profits. Novel products could include the infamous iTV.

What could be potential problems? Here's a few:

1) A competitor producing a product that substantially surpasses Apple in features/quality. I'm not sure what major feature has been left out of phones/tablets/computers so it seems like industry will be fairly static on this front.
2) A competitor could beat Apple in introducing a new novel product and capture the majority of the market for years. What product may that be? Google glasses?

As far as the short term goes, I didn't see anything particularly awful in the earnings release. The low profit number can easily be explained by the lack of iMac availability and low profit margins due to the overhaul of products (its expensive to setup all new production lines).

In conclusion, I'd take the sensationalist headlines with a grain of salt.

Disclosures: Long Apple
 
:lol: predicted it yesterday, its always the same inflated best "gueses" by analysts thats almsot impossible to reach and then disapointment.
 
Anything special with $700? Why not $600 or $800?

I'm not a gambler, but 700 has been an extremely lucky number for me over the years. In this case between the low share price I paid getting in as well as the huge number of shares I was able to buy during Apples tough years, I ended up with more than my wildest expectations.
 
AAPL stock is going down because of their sucka$$ commercials-- come'on, how many times do we have to see that orchestra playing music to demonstrate iPhone's noise reduction technology, which every other cell phone has too!

No seriously, AAPL is going down because its price is based on growth, and it's not growing now, and they are sitting on a pile of cash, and you don't get high valuations based on cash sitting in the bank.
 
are they done by billionaires? are you telilng me that if you can predict the market, you wouldn't have been rich off your ass by now? give me a break. Sure you can predict stuff like moving average and price points of where people probably stake their money, but it's a chicken and the egg problem. Once there's a strategy, someone will take that strategy and take advantage of it. Actual market trends? nope, don't make me laugh.

Actually, that's exactly what I'm telling you. It's called alpha. You can read all about quantitative strategies that have successfully beaten the market over decades both in academic papers and in more accessible books, such as those by Jim O'Shaughnessy and Joel Greenblatt. If you aren't familiar with this stuff, and are just repeating something you heard somewhere like "You can't beat the market," I'd recommend that you read up. No one claimed these trends will make a person "rich off [their] ass," but these strategies certainly have beaten market benchmarks significantly over time.

Incidentally, those quant strategies often have nothing to do with technical indicators. They typically use fundamentals and other data as inputs to stock selection models.

As for strategies being exploited, that's true, but only to an extent. Alpha has become a more scarce commodity in recent years as more hedge funds (and individual investors with PCs and the ability and tools to manipulate data) have gotten in the game. But that doesn't mean it's disappeared, since (obviously) not everyone is using the same strategy. If you don't think there are trends that can be exploited, then you're missing out. The efficient market hypothesis died a long time ago.
 
Last edited:
Anyone who sold their stock after that report is an idiot. Yes the number is not that much higher than the year before. But, it not only was their highest quarter ever. BUT, it was 13.1 billion dollars. Are people not realizing how much $@&!". money that is?!? And that's still 40 million more than last year. I mean that's 200 thousand more iPhones or 80 thousand more iPads, just one year later. For god sake, when you buy an I phone your stuck with it for two years, and not everyone can afford a new 500 plus dollar iPad every year. Stock should have gone up when thinking about these things.
 
I sold half my position about 1 month or so ago...but with a cost base at 150 a share ill let other half ride...and if she gets down to 425 level ill be a buyer again.

Wonder what Cook is thinking with 150 billion in the bank? A stock buy back or one time div would be nice! Could see a major takeover however...re netflix!
 
"Apple Reports Best Quarterly Results Ever in Q1 2013: $13.1 Billion Profit on $54.5 Billion in Revenue"

"Apple Stock Down 10% in After Hours Trading Amidst Concerns of Flat Growth"

Aaaaaandd....that's it. I'm done trying to figure out the stock market. :rolleyes:
 
Apple maps fiasco? Hmm. If you don't like Apple maps, download one of many free or payed GPS applications out there, and if you cant do that good luck with Android!
It was a fiasco until late December when Google released Google Maps for iOS.
Now if only Apple would allow users to set default apps (maybe in iOS 7? What prevents them to add the option in an "Advance Settings" section with a big disclaimer?)
Scratch gate? Since when is any electronic scratch proof?
The iPhone 4 and 4S were less prone to scratching than the iPhone 5.
Boring OS? Just row of iCons? Than how come Windows was so successful for decades, and now they are getting bashed for changing their UI now?
This article from John Gruber is spot on.
In short: the iOS UI was created 6 years ago for a screen that's 20% the resolution of today's screen, with a very limited feature set compared to what smartphones can do today. It's more than about time for a new UI.
http://daringfireball.net/2013/01/the_trend_against_skeuomorphism
 
You beat me.

I was late to the party & got in at $20.

But I stayed the course & loaded up on shares. Even in the dark days when it looked like they might fold, I kept buying. A few years ago I made a promise to myself if they ever crested $700 I'd sell.

Mid September 2012 when it hit my target, I sold.

Wow what an experience.

Haha that's incredible, nice work
 
Apple is a fantastic stock to own in the long term. Here are a few reasons why:

..

Owning Apple stocks for a few years time frame is OK. But you should not own Apple stocks in the long term. Apple is a consumer leisure products company with a small product portfolio. It's hard to predict its future.

For long term investment, you should own multinational conglomerates, oil companies and pharmaceutical companies. Even MacDonalds is better for long term investment.
 
Sorry, not impressed. I lost $100K, which is nothing compared to Tim Cook's $100 million loss.

Here is hoping Apple doubles the dividend soon to cheer me up a little!

Everybody values a dollar differently...

I see I've ruffled some feathers.

You brought up the "G word." It's kinda frowned upon these here parts.

ANDROID...GOOGLE! I bet I just pissed someone off :D
 
Bubble has burst

Innovation has ceased at apple, and slight software upgrades and a new shell for the iPhone every 8 months is no longer driving growth, market saturation and android cannibalisation has finally caught up with Apple and is about to bite it in the ass.

Time to deliver what the public want, instead of what you think the public wants Tim, bigger iPhone, iPhone with better battery life, iPhone with micro SD and replaceable battery, and finally cut you 80% profit margins down to 50% at least, and ship more units, thus getting more market share, and selling more iTunes content.
 
Would that include the Institutional Investors who are currently dumping AAPL?

There are lots of reasons institutional investors dump otherwise decent stocks. Often, it has little to do with fundamental valuation.
 
Apple is becoming Microsoft - or at least that's the fear. They sell a ton of their cash cow products and make good money - but that's just resting on their laurels. Where the hell is any innovation and disruption? People respect Apple for exactly that. Making profits on cash cows - that spot is for Microsoft.

The thing is they will sell some more iPads and iPhones but then when that's saturated they will badly need disruptive new product or at least leaps and bounds improvements to existing ones. And there are no winds of that for past couple years and counting.

You can't just come up with new groundbreaking products every two years, that's absurd. Sure, people are already bored with iPhones, Macs and iPads, but that's just because people will always be bored no matter what, after a while. You can't just keep making new stuff for the sake of it, just to keep people entertained. That's the job of television, and look at the state of it.

I think Apple is doing a great job at making new stuff only when it's needed. If they don't feel they have something worth doing, they won't do it, even if it would make everyone happy for a while. The need for innovation is often just an illusion.
 
You can't just come up with new groundbreaking products every two years, that's absurd. Sure, people are already bored with iPhones, Macs and iPads, but that's just because people will always be bored no matter what, after a while. You can't just keep making new stuff for the sake of it, just to keep people entertained. That's the job of television, and look at the state of it.

I think Apple is doing a great job at making new stuff only when it's needed. If they don't feel they have something worth doing, they won't do it, even if it would make everyone happy for a while. The need for innovation is often just an illusion.

The need for innovation is an absolute necessity for a luxury electronics company.
 
sure.. if you sell a 750 smartphone for 299, you will get a lot of demand. LG is selling Nexus 4 and Google is out of stock. You can draw your own conclusion of why... LG will be crazy to produce Nexus 5 for Google again. How is LG going to sell their own phone when Google price a version of LG phone so low? :cool:

http://www.mobilemag.com/2012/11/07/lg-nexus-4-sold-at-cost-by-google/

According to Cathy Rubin, LG France’s Mobile division director:

Robin denies LG is selling the Nexus 4 at a loss, but says there's an agreement in place with Google to sell it at a "very attractive price."

------------------

LG wouldn't make the Nexus 4 if it is not profitable for them.

Production rate for the Nexux 4:

October: 70,000
November: 90,000
December: 210,000
January is on pace to be well over 500,000

Source: users who poke the serial number using LG database
http://forum.xda-developers.com/showthread.php?t=2055351&page=33
 
A zero dividend is not necessarily a bad thing. Google isn't artificially inflating its attractiveness to investors by issuing out its cash surplus.

First off, I forgot to mention that I am long Apple. My apologies.

As for the dividend, yes,va zero dividend is not necessarily a bad thing. When a company has excess cash, it has two choices. It can distribute the cash to shareholders as a dividend, buy back, etc. or it can reinvest it in the company. It's up to management to show that they can earn a better return with that cash by reinvesting it in the company than shareholders would by using the dividend to invest in something else.

Apple had over $100 billion in cash. They said that they had more than enough cash to fund operations. They have plenty of cash to fund investments and their supply chain deals. If that's the case, the remaining cash is just sitting their earning nothing, not even peanuts. It's in the best interests of shareholders to pay a dividend because shareholders can probably earn a lot more with a dividend than Apple can earn buy just having that cash sit there in the bank.

So Apple wasn't artificially inflating their attractiveness by paying a dividend. They were just doing right by their shareholders. If Google is not paying a dividend, it probably means that they need the cash and they believe that shareholders can earn more by Google reinvesting that cash rather than just paying it out.
 
Negative earnings growth

AAPL is plunging because of next quarter's guidance. Back of the napkin calculations imply about -10% YOY earnings growth (yes, that's negative) for Q2 2013. Apple provided all the indicators but avoided spelling out the obvious by omitting an earnings forecast for Q2.
 
Not to be a Debbie Downer, but what is so innovative about putting a higher resolution display on a MacBook Pro? I love my cMBP, MBA, iMac, iPad 2, and various iPods, and I am not an Apple-basher, but I really don't see where Apple is really innovating in the Mac area. Certainly there have been improvements, but not real innovation. (Tim... Let's see this amazing update to the Mac Pro that you promised!) The thing that concerns me most for the Mac is OS X. I really don't see much innovation there at all. I am hoping that with Tim's recent leadership shakeup, we will start seeing some amazing things in the Mac and OS X areas again.

The display matters. No one has done something like this before to a laptop screen. Once I went for retina display, I couldn't go back... I certainly think it's an innovation, albeit a small one.

What do you want in your "innovative" laptop? Fold-able screens? Infinite battery life?
 
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.