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Apple Stock Down 10% in After Hours Trading Amidst Concerns of Flat Growth

Thus Apple quite possibly reaches the top and begins down the far side of the curve.

As much as I love what they've done for computing and communications in recent history, they've been racing towards their own decline by failing to innovate, concentrating their resources on suing those who are moving faster than them, and continuing on with the worst (and most badly timed) examples of their habit of deliberately holding back features - the iPad Mini's low resolution screen just after the Nexus 7 being the most recent example.

The habit of holding back progress for future revisions of their products and taking advantage of people's willingness to "make do and buy anyway" did them great favours with the iPhone since there was nothing else that could match its "magic" at the time. Even though the original lacked 3G at a time when it was silly to, everyone was willing to buy it in great quantities and they were then free to repeat that success with the 3G version a year or so later.

Now that the competition has caught up and arguably overtaken though (Android 4.0+ is a very mature and solid system, and devices like the HTC One X, Galaxy Note 2 and Google Nexus 7 are pretty amazing) they can't afford to do that any more. But they've certainly been trying!

If this isn't going to be the far end of the curve and a fair old decline they need to do more innovating, and pronto. They need to do what they did with the iPod, iPhone and iPad and create exactly what we want before we realise we want it, which is what they always excelled at.
Otherwise they will end up just another company that stopped innovating and will inevitably go down the path of trying to litigate the competition out of existence, and as much as it can string a company along thanks to how slow the process is (look at how it took like decade for SCO to die) that's not really done any company any favours in the longer term.


I do think that now would be a BRILLIANT time for them to get "Back to the Mac". They've dawdled around with the Mac line-up seeming quite unsure of where to take it and kind of neglecting it and drifting towards merging it with iOS since that is where the success was. Now the tablet market is saturated, we have Microsoft trying to shove touchscreen desktops and that awful Windows 8 down everyone's throats and failing to acknowledge that no-one wants that, the Linux desktop has gone crazy as well with train wrecks like GNOME 3, and so this is the perfect time for Apple to take advantage and really make a go of the Mac again. I doubt they will, as they are the type to see the traditional "sit down with a keyboard" desktop as a thing of the past. But it'd be a great little market right now.
 
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Rogifan said:
as Apple just posted the highest quarterly revenue and profit in its history, and the 4th highest profit of any company of all time. Yep he surely is failing.

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Gizmodo. Yeah, that's where I go to get my news.

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No, there are no good points in there, it's just click bait. 2012 was Tim Cook's first full year as CEO. To suggest he should be fired because Apple hasn't cured cancer is ridiculous. Apple's stock dropped 40% in 2008. Was anybody then suggesting Steve Jobs should be fired? :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

In 2008-2009 Apple stock dropped 40% when the whole market dropped 40%. In 2012-2013 Apple stock dropped 35% and the leading indexes gained 10%. This is the reason why nobody then suggesting to fire Jobs.

Dont you really see the difference?
 
NoMoreSony said:
In 2008-2009 Apple stock dropped 40% when the whole market dropped 40%. In 2012-2013 Apple stock dropped 35% and the leading indexes gained 10%. This is the reason why nobody then suggesting to fire Jobs.

Dont you really see the difference?
Click to expand...

Wow, on top of everything else, Cook gets blamed that AAPL is not equivalent to an index fund. Clearly, he should have predicted the current behavior of the market at least a year ago and timed the behavior of the AAPL owners and media better, all of which he controls. :rolleyes:
 
I never thought there were so many speculators on this site!

I'm no investor, but let me offer some comfort. Looking at the figures, revenue and net income, have all grown at least 500% since 2009. Stock price has grown about 350% before falling. I'd say there's still room up there!
 
jon3543 said:
Wow, on top of everything else, Cook gets blamed that AAPL is not equivalent to an index fund. Clearly, he should have predicted the current behavior of the market at least a year ago and timed the behavior of the AAPL owners and media better, all of which he controls. :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

LOL

I'm quite certain that Apple's Board of Directors is not quietly holding secret meetings to discuss how to fire Tim Cook. Why on earth would they do that? And - more importantly - who would they bring in to replace him?

The recent decline in AAPL comes down to one thing: uncertainty about the future. Apple followed up the amazing success of the 1Pod; the iPhone; with the iPad (and now iPad Mini). Along the way they fundamentally changed the rules for how a personal technology company works.

But its not so clear to investors what Apple's "next big thing" is going to be. Apple almost certainly has a handful (at least) of potentially game-changing products under development. But it can't tell anyone about them. Doing so would a) give Samsung a chance to warm up their copying machine and b) probably violate US Securities laws.

APPL got bid up to $700 a share based on the froth and excitement of the iPad and the iPhone 5. Products that investors could understand. But when it became clear that (wildly successful as these products are) the market for them is ultimately finite, then hedgefunds and day traders have to base their confidence about Apple's future growth based on a belief in a product thats never been talked about, let alone seen, outside of one of Jonny Ive's most secret lairs.
 
Bernard SG said:
Dan Eran Dilger's latest piece is particularly interesting and I'm impressed by the fact it was published 1 day before the earnings and the subsequent drop of AAPL stock.

http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2013/01/22/who-wins-if-apples-stock-doesnt-skyrocket-at-earnings/
Click to expand...

While a lot of that piece is pure hysteria and FUD about competitors, he does make a point. The media can sometimes "look past" the actual going ons at a company and paint a grim picture which results in investor unrest and thus a perception that the company isn't doing well.

I'm reminded of RIM (posted in another thread that had similar "Doom and Gloom" about RIM, but you could easily s/RIMM/AAPL/g in that thread and end-up with the 50 new threads we've had for a week now).

I made a post at the beginning of 2012 about RIM's situation, the parallels with Apple's current situation are staggering :

KnightWRX said:
Really, where does this perception of RIM doing so badly come from ? Their latest results show positive gains, again :

Revenue of $5.2 billion, up 24% from last quarter
BlackBerry smartphone shipments of 14.1 million, up 33% from Q2
GAAP net income of $265 million or $0.51 per share diluted; adjusted net income of $667
million or $1.27 per share diluted
Subscribers up 35% year-over-year to almost 75 million
Cash flow from operations of approximately $895 million
Total of cash, cash equivalents, short-term and long-term investments of $1.5 billion
Click to expand...

http://press.rim.com/financial/release.jsp?id=5307

Why do people keep saying RIM as if on the brink of extinction ? The smartphone market is exploding, RIM are growing, just not as fast as the market. Even Apple is starting to show signs of "slowing down" in smartphones (which is quite disingenuous when you think about it). More platforms are showing up, more handsets are being moved to these smart platforms. It's normal for the players involved to have to share the grounds a bit a more with the newer players/platforms entering the market.

There is no big decline, there's just a big upswing for everyone.
Click to expand...

This is all a big perception game. RIM's troubles weren't really financial, they were born out of perception of the media which resulted in consumer/customer/investor confidence just evaporating, which in turn turned into real financial problems for the company.

Let's hope Apple can find ways to fix this media frenzy before it erodes the confidence that they need to keep on growing, better than RIM did.

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vrDrew said:
The recent decline in AAPL comes down to one thing: uncertainty about the future. Apple followed up the amazing success of the 1Pod; the iPhone; with the iPad (and now iPad Mini). Along the way they fundamentally changed the rules for how a personal technology company works.

But its not so clear to investors what Apple's "next big thing" is going to be.
Click to expand...

It's funny, because looking at that list, we have a 6 year gap (iPod 2001, to iPhone 2007) and then a 3 year gap (iPhone 2007 to iPad 2010) and here we are, only 2 years after the iPad, and people are already claiming it's game over for innovation because we haven't had anything "game changing" in the last 12 months.

Selective memory if you ask me. Apple does not change markets and games every year, I don't know where this perception comes from.
 
Cloudane said:
Thus Apple quite possibly reaches the top and begins down the far side of the curve.

As much as I love what they've done for computing and communications in recent history, they've been racing towards their own decline by failing to innovate, concentrating their resources on suing those who are moving faster than them, and continuing on with the worst (and most badly timed) examples of their habit of deliberately holding back features - the iPad Mini's low resolution screen just after the Nexus 7 being the most recent example.

They need to do what they did with the iPod, iPhone and iPad and create exactly what we want before we realise we want it, which is what they always excelled at.


I do think that now would be a BRILLIANT time for them to get "Back to the Mac".
Click to expand...


You contradict yourself. If you recommend to do " what they did with the iPod, iPhone and iPad" - then its adding up incremental features so newer and newer generations can be sold, the very thing which you criticize in the beginning.

As much as I'd love to see Apple paying more attention to its Mac line, I doubt that Apple which proclaimed that we're now in post-pc era and rightly so, would benefit from much tinkering with old disappearing market. Far better to look and move ahead, where the pack will be. Days of grey LC and my beloved B&W are over and so are Dell and HP and MS as well. Why would Apple go back there?
 
I think that the up and downs of Apple stock are much more complicated game than being a result of iPad mini without Retina.

The stock market is full of predators who sit with billions ready to make a few additional billions.

In order to do that they need buy stock cheaply and then in short period time - few months, no more - raise it to such heights as to make those billions from simply reselling the cheaply bought stock. Once they sell, stock price falls, but the predators are already made billions and are laughing, while poor guys who believed the fever, actually lose, because its they who paid for stock at artificially high prices. To sell them, you need to make them believe that stock will go even higher - like in Apple's case- to from 700 to 1000, while simultaneously selling them all you hold.

The turning points of such buy and sell are days before major announcements, for example, and actual events may be sometimes not related to those stock manipulations because its where people are thinking of making quick money. Apple stock is very easy to manipulate because of its nature both being very prominent.

Take this example: "Is Apple on the Verge of Collapse?".. "Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL ) is more than 10% off its highs for the year as a litany of less than stellar news has caused some fearful investors to flee the stock. First it was Apple's "earnings miss," when the company reported revenue and profits below what Wall Street analysts were expecting. Then it was rumors of slowing demand for Apple's iPhone based on "supply checks.""

You may think its a yesterday's article. In fact, its an article dated Nov 17, 2011. http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/11/17/is-apple-on-the-verge-of-collapse.aspx
APPL was at that time 366 dollars after reaching all time high 422 dollars.

Money made: 56 dollars on each stock

Shortly after the article came, and many panicking people SOLD their apple shares at those 360 dollars, speculators prepared their climbing assault, raising stock price to 636 dollars on April 9, 2012. As you see, savvy investors who bought at 366, would double their investment after 5 months.

money made: 276 dollar per share.

To realize their gain, investors of course sold, and Apple price went down to 530 dollars by May 18, 2012. The article titled "THE APPLE INVESTOR: More Reasons Why Apple Is A Bubble" which goes on "Shares of AAPL are sideways on the heels of yesterday's relentless selling". http://www.businessinsider.com/the-apple-investor-may-16-2012-5#ixzz2IzXUqOtu appears not yesterday, again, but on May 16, 2012. Of course reading those, poor souls who bought when shares were climbing to 636 dollars, sold at 530.


Those who bought were rewarded by share price rise which started May 18, 2012 all the way up to 702 dollars. On September 19, just before the current slide begins, someone claims that Apple will reach 1650 dollars "Apple Shares to Hit $1,650 by Late 2015: Eric Jackson" and as we know, the slide begins down to current 450. If you'd listen to Jackson, you lost.


Money made: 176 dollars on each share.


But where the stocks will go from now on?
I would predict that it, as I mentioned earlier, it will stabilize around current price or even fall further, to rise again until next July, to more than 600 dollars.

Money to be made: 150 dollars on each share.
 
KnightWRX said:
It's funny, because looking at that list, we have a 6 year gap (iPod 2001, to iPhone 2007) and then a 3 year gap (iPhone 2007 to iPad 2010) and here we are, only 2 years after the iPad, and people are already claiming it's game over for innovation because we haven't had anything "game changing" in the last 12 months.

Selective memory if you ask me. Apple does not change markets and games every year, I don't know where this perception comes from.
Click to expand...

Interesting point and true. I think the perception came from the media and the streets love of Apple. They perpetuated the myth that Apple invents everything when what Apple really has always done is improve on existing tech (and improve it vastly) That's why AAPL is such a volatile stock.

It's akin to finding out your favorite superhero isn't that super anymore. Apple has grown to legendary status because of the media and wall street, and now people are beginning to realize that that status may have been undeserved.

I don't mean they don't deserve credit for what they've done, I think they are expected to do way too much. Any company in the world would love to report Apple's financials. But when the street views it it comes up short. Strange perception indeed.

But at the end of the day, this is apple we're talking about. They're not going to just roll over. If anything, the ridiculous expectations may serve as motivation (I hope).
 
that's right

Reality will kick back in now...

COB today: 470
Next thurs: 500

May: 625

You read it here, please refer back when it goes down.
 
The stock value seems to be more or less where it was at a year ago. Apple wasn't doomed then any more than it is now.
 
wiz329 said:
Do you know what the law of large numbers is?
Click to expand...

According to Investopedia, "When relating this concept to finance, it suggests that as a company grows, its chances of sustaining a large percentage in growth diminish. This is because as a company continues to expand, it must grow more and more just to maintain a constant percentage of growth."

Do YOU know what the law of large numbers is?

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iGrip said:
How does the law of large numbers apply to this situation?


"...the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers
Click to expand...

According to Investopedia, "When relating this concept to finance, it suggests that as a company grows, its chances of sustaining a large percentage in growth diminish. This is because as a company continues to expand, it must grow more and more just to maintain a constant percentage of growth."

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TMar said:
Who trades at 1 am?
Click to expand...

People with no life apparently.
 
lilo777 said:
Cut which cord? It's the same cord (iTunes or cable TV) for most people. iTunes version will cost more in total though. So, which one do you want to cut?
Click to expand...

Eh, I meant to delete that line and go with "cancel cable TV entirely". Somehow managed to leave it in there by mistake. Still, it's a fairly common phrase usually associated with getting rid of everything except your internet connection.

And no, it's a goodly bit cheaper in the long run. You do pay more up front. Each season's box set costs about $25-$35 or so on iTunes. But over the course of a year, you'll save a lot of money.

I believe I pay $50 for my 32 Mbps internet connection bundled together with TV. I need to check my bill, but I think I pay around $130 for the entire package with extended basic, all the HBOs, Showtimes, and Cinemaxes.

That's $1560 a year.

If I were to cancel TV entirely, my internet bill would go up to $60, but I'd still be saving $70 a month.

It'd cost me $720 a year. I'd cut my bill in half and then some.

Right now, I subscribe to Netflix. It's actually the place I watch most of my TV and movies these days. It costs me about $8 a month for it.

That'd run me $816 a year.

Now what if I decided to go out and buy a bunch of box sets. Spend about $300 give or take on about 8 seasons of HBO shows?

I'd have spent $1116 a year. Still not as much as I was paying before. I could easily spend more on box sets. Maybe to the point where I push my year entertainment expenditures well over the $1560 a year I was paying for TV and internet. But guess what? Box sets are a one time charge. If I want to watch a couple of them next year, I don't have to pay a dime to do so.

So yeah, you'll be saving tons of money, and get a better quality service. The only downside is a show airs on TV long before the box set comes out. I won't be able to watch everything right as it's brand new.

...unless I pirate it, then buy the box set later. Or HBO, Showtime, and the rest decide to start selling me shows a'la carte.
 
Chupa Chupa said:
By "concerns of flat growth" Wall Street means it has lack of faith Tim Cook can successfully launch the next big thing like Jobs could. Cook's tenure so far has been less than steller. In fact, it's almost HP-like.
Click to expand...

I worked for HP for many years going from a great company in the 80s to the mess it's in now. Unfortunately, I can see some similatities creeping into Apple now. Not Good at all!
 
C42D said:
Reality will kick back in now...

COB today: 470
Next thurs: 500

May: 625

You read it here, please refer back when it goes down.
Click to expand...

Folks, don't forget the financial genius around here who advised the faithful
to max out HELOs and buy Apple when the stock went from 700 to 650.
Just sayin'.

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iphone495 said:
TMar said:
Who trades at 1 am?
Click to expand...

People with no life apparently.
Click to expand...

2 billion peoiple in Asia have no life? Wait till CNN hears about this.
 
I don't think a bunch of shares traded by a corrupt, shady and immoral bankers are a true indication of Apples worth. What matters is that the profits margin as still huge and Apple continue to come out with new products. There is not a technology company in the world that can compete.
 
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