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Apple Stock Price Hits Lowest Levels Since 2011, Falls Below $400

osaga said:
The smartphone market has continued to grow, while apple's revenue remains flat. That's lost revenue.
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That's the impression that you have, but you are wrong.

The smartphone market is growing in numbers, but that is because there are cheaper and cheaper smartphones available all the time, and people who last month would have bought the most expensive feature phone will today buy the cheapest smartphone at exactly the same price. It is just a shift in product categories, with no additional revenue.

Apple's iPhone revenue, on the other hand, isn't staying flat at all. It has grown year after year and hasn't stopped growing.
 
Dmunjal said:
Yeah, the P/E ratios are out of whack between those two companies. But here's the difference. Apple's profits are flat YoY and could go down going forward in a possibly saturated markets. Amazon's profits (before EBITDA) are still actually growing and they only have a small percentage of a larger market that is still growing.
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Everyone seems to miss this detail and I do not understand why.
 
ChrisA said:
Unless you own Apple stock and need to sell it now why would you care about this?

Actually for most of us Mac users if the iPhone failed and was discontinues we' be better off. Apple would go back to making computers and be happy with 5% market share and we'd be happy again. I was MUCH hapyer with Apple back then.

Apple was done nothing with the Mac in 10 years, just a different case and using newer CPUs. Even with phones, about the same and offering different screen sizes.

They need to make some radical and disruptive changes to their Mac OS and the pro and consumer apps.

Apple has loads of cash SPEND it on R&D. They could afford to dump a billion a year on R&D if they wanted. But they don't
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Apple sent $3 billion on R&D last fiscal year. This is a huge increase from the $1.8 billion they spent the year before. I suspect they will increase their spending again.

The Mac is as significantly changed in the last 10 years as the computers made by anyone else, with the one recent exception of Microsoft Windows 8 touch screen. It is highly speculative that adding the touch screen capabilities to the traditional computer is an actual improvement. And the market seems to be rejecting Windows 8.

Apple "needs" to make stuff that folks buy. Last quarter more folks bought iPhones than Apple had ever done before. Last quarter more folks bough iPads than ever before. There is a rumor that this has changed. But even if this is true (which is unlikely) one quarter of hiccup hardly means that Apple needs to change its strategy.
 
NIKKG said:
The biggest enemy of Apple is not Google but itself. Most of its profits come from iPhone but they refuse to give people different sizing options and so people like me have pre-ordered the Galaxy S4 because it has a 5" screen compared to my puny iPhones 5's 4" screen.

Why can't Apple just do a 4",4.5", and 5" screens? Give people options, small screen phones are so 2007. Also, redesign iOS, its so boring now.
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Athough I'm perfectly happy with my iPhone's current screen size, I agree that one screen size doesn't fit all.

But as for iOS being boring, I don't know about that... I would gladly give up live wallpapers, home screen swipe and shutdown animations and definitely the useless clock widget that dominates half the home screen for iOS's more intuitive and straightforward UI and superior ecosystem of higher quality apps and wealth of accessories. And that's exactly what I've done.

And ironically, of all the phones you could've chosen, you chose the most unoriginal OEM that modeled their skin almost verbatim to the iPhone's "boring" UI. If you want something truly different from iOS, you might want to look into HTC, or better yet, Windows phones.
 
nick_elt said:
yeh probably record breaking but will be seen as "dissapointing"
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Seriously. Somehow missing analyst's inflated expectations equates to "disappointing" regardless if the quarter was better than the last or not. But they're the *******s running the show, unfortunately. It's not like anyone, Apple included, can do anything about it.
 
NIKKG said:
The biggest enemy of Apple is not Google but itself. Most of its profits come from iPhone but they refuse to give people different sizing options and so people like me have pre-ordered the Galaxy S4 because it has a 5" screen compared to my puny iPhones 5's 4" screen.

Why can't Apple just do a 4",4.5", and 5" screens? Give people options, small screen phones are so 2007. Also, redesign iOS, its so boring now.
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Ironic. I was looking for a top level android last year with a smaller screen. There didn't seem to be one. So I didn't go the android route because of lack of choice.
 
swarmster said:
Apple's market cap at $400/share: about $375B
Apple's cash at the end of 2012: about $137B
Apple's profit per year (in 2012): about $42B

Years until they can take themselves private, in cash: less than 6.

Not having to listen to shareholders complain about record profits: priceless.
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Except it doesn't work.

Let's say there is exactly one billion shares outstanding. Each share is one billionth of the company. Now Apple starts buying back shares. After buying 500 million shares, each remaining share is now two billionth of the company - it is worth twice as much. No matter how many shares Apple buys back, all the shareholders together own exactly 100% of the company. If Apple buys back 999,999,999 shares and only one share is left, the owner of that share owns Apple.
 
Newton70 said:
I have to agree. iPhone 4 was released in the middle of 2010. The iPhone 5 looks very similar to the iPhone 4 (with an elongated screen being the primary visual difference). I think it's safe to say that the iPhone 5S will be physically similar to the 5. iPhone 6 probably won't be released until the middle of 2014. That means you have a product that has stayed with essentially the same physical design for roughly 4 years. Regardless of how great the iPhone 5 is and 5S will be, I think the "look" of it has become stale to many consumers....and that's unfortunate for a company with Apple's pedigree.
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No the look of it has become stale to Wall Street analysts, tech bloggers and geeks. Other people don't care (except maybe wanting a larger screen size). Microsoft dramatically changed the UI on Windows 8. PC OEM's are throwing all kinds of **** against the wall yet PC sales are in decline. Because people want their cheap PCs and their Start button. They don't care about metro UI or touching the screen on their laptop.
 
Plutonius said:
The same thing as last time. All the analyst come in with bad predictions the week before the earnings announcements when Apple is unable to respond.

Market manipulation at it's best :D.
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What are you smoking? Apple stock has lost almost 50% of its value since September - this is something way beyond the earnings report pump and dump or trash it and buy it cycle.
 
Last edited:
I'm just one consumer but for me Apple has moved away from what I want. I have a late 2008 15in MacBook Pro, a late 2009 2.66GHz mini and a 2010 Mac Pro 3.2GHz quad.

While they still perform their jobs by current standards the MBP and mini are really slow. I'm considering a new MBP because I fear that the user replaceable hard drive and RAM and the optical drive may soon be gone. Retina MBPs are missing some of the ports I use and I like having an optical drive.

My mini is used as an EyeTV DVR so a quad-core i7 and better video would be much appreciated. The current built-in power supply, reports of overheating/throttling down, only four USB ports are a disadvantage and that goofy flat but wide body don't do much for me.

Both the MBP and mini have WD Scorpio Black 7200 RPM 750GB hard drives and 8GB RAM. Neither of those were even an option when those machines were produced. I was able to up their performance as technology improved.

The Mac Pro uses WD RE4 4TB hard drives. Those were not available in 2010. I'm using a Samsung monitor for both the MP and the mini. Its replacement will definitely have two DVI or DP inputs.

What I'm saying is this; I really love OS X and Apple quality. Unfortunately Apple's product line is moving in a different direction from my wants and needs. Again, I'm just one consumer but I don't see much at the Apple Store that I've got to got to have in the same way that I felt just a couple of years ago.
 
Apple became arrogant when they thought they could price the 13" rMBP so outrageously high for what it is.

Don't get me wrong, I love a lot of what Apple comes up with, but maybe Apple needs to start focussing a bit more on OS X and software. Most of Apple's in-house software is out-of-date crap that is light years behind third party stuff. They need to give people more reasons to purchase their hardware and give existing users reasons to spend money on good software.
 
AQUADock said:
Prepare yourself for the stock to go down even further if apple announces good profits.
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Yep. Investors are idiots because they always react disproportionately to third hand information. I say that as an investment analyst.

The thing is that Apple's stock is ridiculously overpriced. At $700, it would take some 13 years of maintaining profits to equal the share price. Microsoft's profits are currently at 3.5 years to equal the share price, which is more in line with every other company.

Apple also has ridiculously low dividen yield compared to the rest of the industry.

So in this case it's not so much that people think Apple is such a bad company, it's just that they were overvalued to stratospheric proportions.
 
ryanlaing said:
They haven't come out with interesting products for a while, and there doesn't seem to be anything interesting in the pipeline.

iPhone 5 brought LTE - but most other phones have LTE
iPhone 5 brought larger screen - but other phones have larger screens (and higher resolutions)
iPad mini - because the 7" android tablets were selling well
iOS6 - nothing exciting
maps - swing and a miss
podcasts - swing and a miss
passbook - swing and a miss
siri - not there yet

In the works:
iWatch - guaranteed flop
iTV - always rumored, likely unable to meet expectations
iPhone 5S - same thing, a little different.
iPad5 - same thing, a little different
iOS7 - pray for a major refresh to make our devices feel new again.

wildcard:
let appleTV run apps, turn the 99 dollar set top from a 'hobby' into a must have. a new marketplace. build a nice controller and they have a new gaming console. and draw the masses to iTunes video.

I'm not trying to be harsh, but realistic. Apple used to feel new and exciting, now they feel unsure and cautious. Competition becoming more ambitious and slowly topping Apple in several ways. People are paying more attention to Android. Apple has solid and stable products, but right now that's not going to attract shareholders the way it did years ago.
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In general, I agree with most of your post - well said. This is a major part of the "trend" that I have been posting about for the past couple of months.

I'd love to see Cook turn his performance around quickly - I'll eat the crow happily. Sadly, I don't think he can and that is why he needs to go.
 
vvswarup said:
How exactly is the GS4 innovative? A larger screen size, a better chip or camera don't count as "innovation" to me. Also, the consensus after the GS4 launch was that It was a good phone, but not the final nail in Apple's coffin.
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Apple stopped innovating after the iPhone 4's retina display. As much hype as the iPad gets, it hasn't changed since the original. It got a retina display... yay! That's just copied off of the iPhone, not to mention it's a natural progression of technology. Siri, well Apple ripped them off w/ their deep pockets and called it innovation. Name 1 innovation of Apple's since the iPhone 4.

When you take Samsung into account, they think substance first. Each release brings more and new features to the table. S-Pen, S-Beam, S-Voice, multi-window just to name a few innovations. Sorry, but Apple can't think outside of the box. Their 'innovations' are simply just things they buy up, developed by other, smarter people. That's why the public has no confidence in them, and are voting w/ their pockets, i.e. sales numbers.
 
gnasher729 said:
That's the impression that you have, but you are wrong.

The smartphone market is growing in numbers, but that is because there are cheaper and cheaper smartphones available all the time, and people who last month would have bought the most expensive feature phone will today buy the cheapest smartphone at exactly the same price. It is just a shift in product categories, with no additional revenue.

Apple's iPhone revenue, on the other hand, isn't staying flat at all. It has grown year after year and hasn't stopped growing.
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I'll say this again. Revenue doesn't matter. Profits are flat even with rising revenue. That means shrinking margins due to increased competition. That is not good for the stock price.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324539304578260222730515836.html

January 23, 2013
"Apple recorded a flat profit despite selling 18 million more iPhones and iPads, as it spent heavily to roll out new products to fend off intensifying competition."
 
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