Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
To borrow a phrase, thanks but no thanks. I'm not a novice investor. I've been in AAPL since 1997. I rode out the big slide of 2000 and the years afterwards of being a forced long term investor. It paid off, but now most of that payoff for my patience and averting my eyes from the carnage, is gone. How much more patience should I have? Add to that, this is the second time in less than ten years we patient investors have been slammed hard. At this point, I'm looking for an exit. If I'm beginning to feel this way, I can assume that many others are as well, and not just about AAPL, but about the stock markets overall.

I.J.--
I'm not suggesting that you or anyone else follow my lead on that, just expressing my sentiments. A higher present offer or shorter time on the sidelines would change the calculus, but I would want back in.
 
Not really that odd, they are viewing the future economic situation and believe that with Apple offering a premium product, the credit markets ina big squeeze and the overall economic outlook looking poor they do not see Apple continuing with strong sales.

The recommendations they are providing are more for the investors who go through their organization. They can't post a rosey picture of Apples future sales when the market is not looking strong. Quite a few brokers got caught recommending stocks when in fact they knew the stock was no where near as good as they suggested, they were getting benefits in return for providing positive ratings on stocks that they had other interests in which were either not disclosed or not disclosed properly.

As stated many times, Apple itself is just fine, they have little to no debt and significant cash on hand, but that does not determine the stock price. Sitting on lots of cash and doing nothing is no different than sitting on no cash and making bad decisions as there is no value to the stock holders and thus the stock goes down. Apple's problem is that they sell what is viewed as premium products, this is especially true in the computer market, less so in the media player market. When the economy is poor people do not feel confident to make big purchases, they act conservative. That being said, a current Apple computer owner is highly likely to replace their current system with another Apple computer, BUT, if they are not in a position where they MUST upgrade (failed computer) they will hold off on making the purchase until things improve.

For people not necessarily tied to Apple products, do you buy the $500 PC replacement or the $1000 Apple? In good times the jump to the Apple isn't out of the question, in bad times it is hard to justify the price difference. If Apple had some products that were priced at say a $100-200 premium to the PC market then although people will give a lot of though to the price difference it is a more acceptable price jump in a conservative market.

As to the discussion about "but Apple offers a better product" or "but Apple's computers are priced much closer to the similar performance PCs", reality says that in this kind of a market, the cheaper product is more appealing as price is a more influential factor. There will be plenty of people buying Macs, just the potential market shrinks a bit.

Well said!

It's refreshing to hear some rational thought injected into the discussion.
 
I.J.--
I'm not suggesting that you or anyone else follow my lead on that, just expressing my sentiments. A higher present offer or shorter time on the sidelines would change the calculus, but I would want back in.

Granted, but the question becomes, how many times are you willing to get burned? At some point your tolerance for becoming bug splat on the windshield of the markets wears out. This tolerance is going to decrease with age, if only because you have less time to wait for recovery and more experience which argues against the likelihood of recovery coming. Get back to me when your investments are wiped out a few times. Trust me, each time this happens it gets progressively more difficult to convince yourself that the markets are any place for the individual investor.
 
Apple isn't the only thing tanking, the entire world's economy is going down the toilet thanks to 8 years of neglect and bad policies.

I bought my Apple shares when they were $10 a share, so, I don't consider this a bargain.
 
Apple isn't the only thing tanking, the entire world's economy is going down the toilet thanks to 8 years of neglect and bad policies.

I bought my Apple shares when they were $10 a share, so, I don't consider this a bargain.[/QUOTE


What you paid several years ago is irrelevant as to whether AAPL is a bargain now. It's a different company now with a completely different revenue picture.
 
You guys think its a good time to invest in AAPL right now? I'd imagine that the stock isn't going to rocket upto $170/per share in the very near future. The only thing I can see happening is the stock(s) going even further down... but I am considering purchasing a small amount of shares in Apple.
 
I thought APPLE sales were still growing-maybe at a a lower rate, where PC sales are plunging. The PC market is getting oversaturated. And people are hating Windows even more
PC buyers tend to be J6P who are probably now out of a job thanks to Helicopter Ben. APPLE buyers are of higher incomes and are not feeling the pinch as much yet.

And yes let call a spade a spade-we are in a depression-which could get a LOT worse-there are still many big banks and financial houses both here and in Europe that are teetering-and will take others down with them.

Ive read several BBs Blogs and Financial & RE sites that talk of a coming Tsunami of 'vapor worth' DERIVATIVES about to hit:

ONE QUADRILLION DOLLARS worth... if true-mindboggling
 
Yesterday's drops will start out as today's bargains and I hope it stays that way for some of full recovery of the over 700 point drop.
 
Some more commentary on Apple's share price from this afternoon:

LINK

Apple's Warning Comes Back to Haunt
Tuesday September 30, 1:02 pm ET

Andrea Chalupa writes: Apple's share price inched back up today after leading the Nasdaq in a pummeling. The stock is barely up three points this morning after taking an 18 percent nosedive yesterday after two analysts cut their ratings on the company's stock. The tech meltdown yesterday showed that Silicon Valley is vulnerable to the shake up on Wall Street, which saw the Nasdaq reach its lowest level in over three years...

...But yesterday's sharp drop by Apple shouldn't have been a surprise. As Footnoted blogger Michele Leder noted on July 24, Apple warned that this was coming.

"In the [10Q] filing, Apple used stark new language to describe the current economic situation and its potential to have a 'material adverse effect on demand for the Company's products and services and on the Company's financial condition and operating results,'" she wrote yesterday. "The company also used the word depressed to describe consumer spending."

In July, the Consumer Electronics Association released a forecast that Americans' spending on consumer electronics would total $160 billion for 2007 and would be up another ten billion this year.

"What I'm hearing from the distribution chain is that while people didn't stop buying Macs, iPods and iPhones, they are opting to buy the lower end," Shaw Wu, formerly of American Technology Research told the LA Times on Monday. "At some point, we worry that even that is impacted."

Probably makes the rumored update/price drops on the portable line even more important...
 
Some more commentary on Apple's share price from this afternoon:

I'm unimpressed by this commentary. Of course the slowing economy will have an impact on Apple's sales, just it will on every consumer products company, and Apple is required to disclose this forecast in their financial statements. In fact, "material adverse effect" is language right out of the disclosure regulations, not something "new" and "stark." The question should be whether this slowdown warrants the stock price being cut nearly in half. I might be impressed with a commentary which explains this, one way or another.
 
I'm unimpressed by this commentary. Of course the slowing economy will have an impact on Apple's sales, just it will on every consumer products company, and Apple is required to disclose this forecast in their financial statements. In fact, "material adverse effect" is language right out of the disclosure regulations, not something "new" and "stark." The question should be whether this slowdown warrants the stock price being cut nearly in half. I might be impressed with a commentary which explains this, one way or another.

Well, the point of this particular article was to show that Apple had themselves warned about a possible drop in consumer spending as early as July... I, too, would like to see more written about what yesterday's downgrades warranted a 20% drop in share price, but there doesn't seem to be many folks wishing to explain that.
 
Well, the point of this particular article was to show that Apple had themselves warned about a possible drop in consumer spending as early as July... I, too, would like to see more written about what yesterday's downgrades warranted a 20% drop in share price, but there doesn't seem to be many folks wishing to explain that.

Apple has been saying this since January at least. Nobody in their right minds was expecting consumer spending to hold up -- this has been factored into the markets all year. Still AAPL was selling close to $180 only a few weeks ago, with a trailing P/E in the mid-30s. Now it's only worth 20 time current earnings? That's the drop I'm talking about (even without even going back to late last year). That's a forecast for disaster, not a drop.

Probably, nobody wants to explain it because they really don't have a clue.
 
a

Well, the point of this particular article was to show that Apple had themselves warned about a possible drop in consumer spending as early as July... I, too, would like to see more written about what yesterday's downgrades warranted a 20% drop in share price, but there doesn't seem to be many folks wishing to explain that.


It's not complicated. The downgrades were by crooks and idiots. RBC spun Changewave's data in a negative way to reach it's conclusion. MS analyst has one of thE very worst records on the Street. She absolutely never gets aapl right. It was a choreographed takedown. Some people made a lot of money yesterday, and not because they're smart or lucky. The system is corrupt. Just look at what the SEC said recently.
 
If there's one thing that history has shown it's that, in times of economic crisis, you need to dive into the market head first; think like a pitbull; attack without blinking; consume!
 
as a technical stock trader, the charts are all screwed up and Apple really broke support at 120 in a big way. today it did a dead cat bounce but if the market fundamentals don't get better the next support level is around the high 80's - and that is very weak. i had to stretch the chart out over 2 years just to get a grasp. the charts for google isn't faring to well either. :apple:
 
as a technical stock trader, the charts are all screwed up and Apple really broke support at 120 in a big way. today it did a dead cat bounce but if the market fundamentals don't get better the next support level is around the high 80's - and that is very weak. i had to stretch the chart out over 2 years just to get a grasp. the charts for google isn't faring to well either. :apple:

Do you think a technical outlook will work in times like these? I think during the last couple of months we have seen that anything is possible and that you can forget about technicals.

That being said during times like these i would only day trade.
 
Do you think a technical outlook will work in times like these? I think during the last couple of months we have seen that anything is possible and that you can forget about technicals.

Technical analysis is advanced number crunching. It's got no root in any other reality.
 
I bought my Apple shares when they were $10 a share, so, I don't consider this a bargain.

Of course you did.


_________________________


Back to the real world:

The charts show next downside support for AAPL in the 85-95 range (congestion from late 06 - early 07).
 
Now's the time to buy I think.

The share market is driven by sheep who don't think. Oh and short traders who spread rumours just to make a cool million or two

Anyway while we are burning our furniture for heat and drinking instant coffee with fingerless gloves on our hand as the neighbourhood is looted we will need ipods to soothe our nerves and remind us of when we had homes...

People it will be OK, no depression, China is Booming and they have spare cash to float the world . Have you ever been there? I have just come back and it was staggering. Forget third world vast modern cities, magnificent skyscrapers, more industry in a square KM than most nations.

In Australia we seem OK, mortgages or loans were not dangled infront of people with no hope of paying but with the hope their homes would go up-to pay off the mortgage. That was criminal and masterminded by the American Government to create a non sustainable very bursteable property bubble.

America for all our sakes don't vote in Macain , PLEASE we beg you.

Trust your instincts and don't trust a stockbroker.
 
as a technical stock trader, the charts are all screwed up and Apple really broke support at 120 in a big way. today it did a dead cat bounce but if the market fundamentals don't get better the next support level is around the high 80's - and that is very weak. i had to stretch the chart out over 2 years just to get a grasp. the charts for google isn't faring to well either. :apple:

ROTFL

Here's an abercrombie post from 3 weeks ago:
"as one of the po' folk here that can only afford a couple hundred buck apple nano, or a $500 low end windows laptop, i don't mind if they don't announce any new computers."

Here's something you should remember, boys and girls: Never listen to stock tips from your taxi driver, waiter, cnbc analyst, or wh8re in bed with the hedgies. And listen to "technical analysts" parroting street language who can't afford more than one share of stock at your own peril.
 
as a technical stock trader, the charts are all screwed up and Apple really broke support at 120 in a big way. today it did a dead cat bounce but if the market fundamentals don't get better the next support level is around the high 80's - and that is very weak. i had to stretch the chart out over 2 years just to get a grasp. the charts for google isn't faring to well either. :apple:


Here's another:

"i see at the apple store they're selling the refurbished nano 3rd generations for $99. a few weeks ago they were $129. what do you guys think? i still have my 2nd generation but i do want video. and are the 4th generation so much better that it commands the extra price? i thinking of pulling the trigger."

Asking for nano refurb buying advice and then giving out technical stock trading advice. Sheesh. Bull$hi++ing is one thing, but providing "advice" which someone who doesn't know any better might actually believe is another. I'm in the game with real money and if I didn't have such an extremely large position already, I would be buying (in part because I know the misinformation/disinformation which at least played a part in the takedown), but I'm certainly not suggesting anyone else do so. DYODD.
 
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.