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Maybe we need to figure out what the definition of "flop" is.

Is it selling more smartwatches than all other smartwatches combined... in just 3 months?
Is it bringing in almost a billion dollars in revenue?
Is it exciting thousands of developers to add Watch functionality to their apps?
Na... it can't be any of those things...


You are correct, it has outsold all other smart bands and generates more profits in 3 months then lots company's make in annually. As a business venture it isn't a flop. Is it going to transformed the way we live as Cook said, that's a far stretch. Is it as revolutionary as Cook announced? Not by far in my opinion.

I really hope Apple comes out with there A-game for 2nd generations. Tim needs to focus on vision for the product.. no more dancing
 
A billion dollars in revenue doesn't necessarily mean profit. I have no idea, but R&D, design, marketing etc etc will all have cost many many millions. Add the manufacturing costs and they may not have made a single dollar of profit from the Watch yet.

Majority market share in a tiny market is not impressive.

The majority of customers so far are likely to be hardcore Apple devotees - they're likely to be satisfied with it whether it's any good or not.

Did you miss the poll that concluded 'the less techy a person is, the more there likely to enjoy the watch'?
 
Did you miss the poll that concluded 'the less techy a person is, the more there likely to enjoy the watch'?
Yes, I did miss that. Their wasn't anything about that in the main MacRumors article... Anyway, there going to say that.
 
Yeah, I had the same impression. I had high hopes for the 360, but the execution just didn't cut it for me. I could get past the lower res display but the refraction through the beveled coverglass was really annoying.

Apple had something like an extra year to get it right though. Gen 2 of the 360 will almost certainly be better...

After moto 360 I really wanted Apple watch to have a round display, but after playing around with it, I realized that most things like checking your email, or reading messages just isn't made for a round display. I think personally that a rectangular display with rounded corners without any bezel would give the user the biggest screen possible on a smart watch.
 
As an owner of the Apple Watch I'm not surprised. Unless you were into watches before, I don't see anyone being swayed into wearing a smart watch now.
 
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Yeah but a Rolex is a quality piece of jewelry and is more of a status symbol type thing. The apple watch is just another piece of over priced garbage that appeals to hipsters more than anything. $200 is more of a reasonable price than $500-$600.

A rolex also lasts 20 years or more if you take care of it. Apple watch without any upgrades isn't lasting 3 years
 
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Can you please provide factual evidence of this?
His comment read "I've said it before and I'll reiterate..." You want factual evidence of him saying this?

What do you want - a recording of him actually saying the words "The entire market for an Apple watch has theirs already"?
 
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I'm not surprised by the headline, i don't know many people with them and those that do are hmmmm about it.
I wont be getting one even if they gave it away for free.

Come on now, really? You wouldn't take an Apple Watch if they gave it away for free? :p

Anyway, for me, the watch just provides a better level of convenience but doesn't really bring much to the table. I really am glad I purchased one but I have a hard time recommending it to many people, especially when the cheapest model is £300.
 
Do people really expect millions to suddenly start wearing watches just because of the Apple Watch?

Yes. Yes, they do.

My $0.02, it doesn't matter if Apple sold one million, five million or ten million Apple Watches. In its current and foreseeable future form the Apple Watch is an iPhone accessory and therefore it's sales success or failure will be tied to iPhone sales.

Two-thirds of Apple's revenue is tied to iPhone sales. That is a huge concentration of risk for any company.

Samsung, LG, Sony and Motorola/Lenovo all have other streams of revenue. I dip in smartphone sales isn't nice, but won't kill them.

If 5% of iPhone users decide they don't want to upgrade this year because there is no compelling reason, it would be devastating to Apple.

Tech history is littered with the burnt-out hulks of once great companies.
 
Come on now, really? You wouldn't take an Apple Watch if they gave it away for free? :p

I would - but only for its resale value. If I was unable to sell it on, it wouldn't even take it for free. I've already got enough old gadgets/chargers/cables filling my drawers.
 
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For me:
No buy.

For operation/fitness -too expensive - If I want a fitness tracker, a fitbit or a Garmin watch would work best. They work great in sunlight, good fitness specific software, vibration notification and better price/value ratio.

Apple watch apps run off the phone most of the time, and device is laggy. For something with poor battery life, that's disappointing.

I am more than happy with an iPod touch for proper iOS app use. For running hours, a Garmin forerunner 220 with a proper heart rate monitor. Lighter than the Apple watch. I'm not afraid to sweat/bang up the watch. Easy to glance and operate mid stride. No bulky phone to carry. Once I'm done, it syncs to the touch in my car via bluetooth. Fast, and fairly accurate GPS to monitor pace.

And... the Apple Watch edition doesn't look like it is in the same league as a luxury watch. A $600 Apple Watch sport looks very similar to the $17K version.... and rather bland at that. My neighbor buys/trades luxury watches every weekend in the $10K or more price range, and whether it is a Rolex Submariner, Breitling, Omega, Tag Heuer... whatever it is... they are all greater material, virtually one of a kind devices that are mesmerizing to hold and look at. Any time I visit, it is another dozen watches I've never seen anything like before in terms of material, look or operation.
 
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I returned mine.
$600 - it's an overpriced notification band. NO THANKS!

Don't know how many they sold, don't care. Went to the grocery store today and realized after I checked out I'd left my wallet at home and I started to freak a little (the line of people behind me was quite long) and then I saw the NFC symbol on the CC terminal and used Pay on my Watch. Saved the day! Also tracked my walk home, and controlled my music. i LOVE the Watch. Also love the look on peoples faces when I used the Watch to pay. I know that sounds a bit petty, and I'm sorry, but it's true.

I think these two views encapsulate the perception thus far of the Watch perfectly.

On the one hand, there are those that simply do not see the value -- it's a thing on your wrist that tells you when a message arrives and also tells the time and it's starting price is greater than that of an iPad mini 2... and goes way up from there. Who needs such a thing and who the heck can justify the cost?

Then there are those who have actually lived with it for a while and have experienced the variety of scenarios in which having the Watch has actually benefitted them -- whether it's gaining a better understanding of their health and fitness, thereby encouraging them to improve, or making their life more convenient through features like ApplePay or tap for directions. Things that you have to really experience to appreciate the value.

For people who haven't decided to just go for it, I think there's still a lot more convincing that needs to take place before they'll recognize the value of the Watch. This isn't the type of product that explodes onto the market. It's a slow burn, that with enough time will spread far and wide

That said, I do think the Watch is overpriced. Maybe I'll feel differently when a few more iterations are released and it not only adds new features but gets better at doing the things it can currently do. But for now, for a product few people understand and many just don't want, it seems a little too pricey to entice the masses.
 
Unless someone else is making the "S1 package housing" - then I'm pretty sure that the supplier would know how many watches were at most produced. Produced - not sold.

You are missing the point.
What we have here is another version of the GT Advanced Technologies story.
Apple has made no promises, hints, suggestion, claims or otherwise of anything CLOSE to 18 million sales a year. I personally have predicted 10 million and I'm probably optimistic.

So what we probably have is, like GTAT, a company that was so blinded by the idea of working for Apple that they lost their business sense. Now they're terrified they can't make a profit on the prices and volumes they quoted Apple, and their CEO is trying to save his skin by blaming Apple for (supposedly) misleading them.
Good luck with that tactic --- the main consequence I imagine will be that, in indeed ASE made these sorts of claims (rather than Mark Li simply speaking out his ass which is, of course, another possibility), we will be seeing a different company assembling the S2.
 
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I think it does.

Apple is a very different company to the one that existed when the iPhone and Apple TV were released.

Ok so let's extrapolate that theory. You're argument is that the Apple Watch must be a bigger hit than the iPhone in order to be considered successful. It follows then that whatever came after the Apple Watch would have to be a bigger hit than the Apple Watch for it to, to be considered a success. If you kept going that way, eventually an Apple product would have to sell more units than there were people on the planet to be considered a success.

As well as being fundamentally untenable your argument completely misunderstands what Apple as a company is about. They don't care about sales numbers or market share in there own right. They care about making good products that their customers enjoy, if the product is good it will largely sell itself and profit will flow from that. If they also gain market share then so much the better but, on its own, market share doesn't mean anything to them.
 
You are missing the point.
What we have here is another version of the GT Advanced Technologies story.
Apple has made no promises, hints, suggestion, claims or otherwise of anything CLOSE to 18 million sales a year. I personally have predicted 10 million and I'm probably optimistic.

So what we probably have is, like GTAT, a company that was so blinded by the idea of working for Apple that they lost their business sense. Now they're terrified they can't make a profit on the prices and volumes they quoted Apple, and their CEO is trying to save his skin by blaming Apple for (supposedly) misleading them.
Good luck with that tactic --- the main consequence I imagine will be that, in indeed ASE made these sorts of claims (rather than Mark Li simply speaking out his ass which is, of course, another possibility), we will be seeing a different company assembling the S2.


I didn't miss anything because my post wasn't about judging success or failure. My post was simply stating that IF you are the only one manufacturing a specific part that must be used in a device, then you know the MAXIMUM # of units that could have been created. That's a MAXIMUM - you can't deduct how many were actually sold. You just have a ceiling.

So I've missed nothing. You're free to assess the situation and make analogies. But that's irrelevant to my original post.
 
I think these two views encapsulate the perception thus far of the Watch perfectly.

On the one hand, there are those that simply do not see the value -- it's a thing on your wrist that tells you when a message arrives and also tells the time and it's starting price is greater than that of an iPad mini 2... and goes way up from there. Who needs such a thing and who the heck can justify the cost?

Then there are those who have actually lived with it for a while and have experienced the variety of scenarios in which having the Watch has actually benefitted them -- whether it's gaining a better understanding of their health and fitness, thereby encouraging them to improve, or making their life more convenient through features like ApplePay or tap for directions. Things that you have to really experience to appreciate the value.

For people who haven't decided to just go for it, I think there's still a lot more convincing that needs to take place before they'll recognize the value of the Watch. This isn't the type of product that explodes onto the market. It's a slow burn, that with enough time will spread far and wide

That said, I do think the Watch is overpriced. Maybe I'll feel differently when a few more iterations are released and it not only adds new features but gets better at doing the things it can currently do. But for now, for a product few people understand and many just don't want, it seems a little too pricey to entice the masses.

I think that this is a fair assessment.

I happen to be very satisfied with my AW - despite its shortcomings, it's been well worth what I paid for it, and I expect it to be even better when WatchOS 2 ships.

I also understand why, for many, the AW isn't worth the expense for what it does. The watch would have to either do more, cost less, or both to attract some of them. And that would leave people for whom the AW wouldn't be worthwhile at any cost. What I don't get is why some folks in these categories don't believe that the AW can be of value to anyone, or claim that those who say that they like their AW are foolish. It's bizarre.
 
You are missing the point.
What we have here is another version of the GT Advanced Technologies story.
Apple has made no promises, hints, suggestion, claims or otherwise of anything CLOSE to 18 million sales a year. I personally have predicted 10 million and I'm probably optimistic.

So what we probably have is, like GTAT, a company that was so blinded by the idea of working for Apple that they lost their business sense. Now they're terrified they can't make a profit on the prices and volumes they quoted Apple, and their CEO is trying to save his skin by blaming Apple for (supposedly) misleading them.
Good luck with that tactic --- the main consequence I imagine will be that, in indeed ASE made these sorts of claims (rather than Mark Li simply speaking out his ass which is, of course, another possibility), we will be seeing a different company assembling the S2.

While I agree that the ASE margin contraction of their EMS business resembles slightly to the GTAT situation, let's not go overboard on the actual comment by their COO: they remain very optimistic, and the doom and gloom comments were mostly extrapolated by commenters (and perhaps the Bernstein analyst, but his report was not on AAPL, but ASE, so it was really WSJ taking it out of context).

More importantly, ASE managed to deliver S1 in 15Q2 that amounted to about a ~5% boost in their total revenue (EMS was about 49% of their total business, and they implied a 10% increase in revenue due to Apple Watch on that front, in an environment where semiconductor companies are seeing contracting market (which they also mentioned, in the call, that there relatively larger dependency on iOS as opposed to Android device orders helped them).

ASE management didn't say anything about Apple, let alone complaining. This story was just some financial reporter extrapolate on some analyst's report (who didn't seem to have ask questions in the call). Please see my earlier post on an alternative take on the ASE earnings call on July 30rd.
 
no surprise to me...Amazing a company like Apple can make such bad decisions at times, it never looked like something I'd want or I thought others might want, apart from the health connection.
 
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