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Absolutely correct. Until the tech is really convincing. The apple watch was just bad. Admittedly everyone's watch was just bad.

Apple Watch is not bad, in fact it is quite good and I love mine. Easy for those that never wore one for a month to say that.
 
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Absolutely correct. Until the tech is really convincing. The apple watch was just bad. Admittedly everyone's watch was just bad.

Hahahaha... Admittedly your saying for who?

iPhones (smartphones) and WATCHES are two COMPLETELY DIFFERENT MARKETS.

Same-song, LG, and GOOGLE learned this lesson VERY early on -- wayyyy before Apple came to the party.

I have a watch. I'm very happy with it. For me it performs as advertised. Battery wise it has NEVER died on me in one day. I'm completely fine charging it at night. Charges right next to my iPhone and iPad connected to my Mac Pro.

I live in THE REAL WORLD where I don't OVER EXPECT my watch to do a million functions. Honestly -- app wise -- it almost does too many things.

The BIG question is... Has it had a profound impact on the way I live my life....drumroll please..

Yes.

What's cool is looking at the watch like this. How bout being grateful that your living life and able to experience owning a mini computer strapped to your wrist.

For god sake it's a FIRST GENERATION people. The REAL WORLD isn't ready for a device on your wrist YET -- no matter how many times some of you *think* it is because you say so.

Perspective... My first Mac was a Mac IIci.. The first year owning it I sold over $1 million in advertising and marketing work I produced on that Mac... Here's some stats on its performance just to teach SOME of you a bit of reality.

Mac IIci

Release date
September 20, 1989
Introductory price USD $6269
Discontinued
February 10, 1993
Operating system System 6.0.4-System 7.1.1(Pro), System 7.5-Mac OS 7.6.1

CPU Motorola 68030 @ 25 MHz
Memory
1 mb or 4 mb, expandable to 128 mb. (80 ns 30-pin SIMM)

Period. Stop whining!
 
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Why do you say that? I bought mine 3 weeks ago and I really like it. It's not perfect but the combination of notifactions and activity/workout tracking has been great for me. Honestly I don't really care about any 3rd party apps at the moment since Apple's core apps do everything I need. If you're not using it for fitness purposes on top of notifications I can see why people wouldn't find it that useful.

even those dont work too well for me. since they changed the HR stuff on 1.0.1 its rather random how it counts the 30 mins goal. like yesterday i was sitting mostly at the library and i randomly finished the 30 minutes goal. today i was actually walking for 12 km and i got 28 minutes for it ... like?

also my old jawbone can track my sleep and i can officially wear it for a swim.

i am basically wearing a 750 Euro notification extender on my wrist now
 
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But when the iPhone came out, it was only available on one network, required a 2yr contract (and remember people would already have been on contracts with other networks at release of the iPhone) and was incredibly expensive. The iPad has never really found a massive market and is now in decline.

The Watch won't be around for long.

Yours will be another of those funny posts that we will be laughing at in a few years. They sold a Billion dollars worth in a quarter. That's Billions with a B. Future generations of this watch will make this one look like the iPhone 6 does the original iPhone. Apple either already has, or will soon recoup their development costs on this product. The hill has been taken.
 
It's not surprising that the WSJ would run with a report like this. Again they're the ones who ran a front page headline saying Apple had cut iPhone 5 orders in half.

The WSJ example you keep repeating, is a bad one to use, since it could very well have been correct.

That quarter, iPhone sales dropped from ~47 million to 37 million, with a million of the latter being added to store inventories without sell through.

To which Tim Cook had to remind everyone that making assumptions based on supply chain chatter is stupid.

Of couse, one of Cook's jobs is damage control.
 
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even those dont work too well for me. since they changed the HR stuff on 1.0.1 its rather random how it counts the 30 mins goal. like yesterday i was sitting mostly at the library and i randomly finished the 30 minutes goal. today i was actually walking for 12 km and i got 28 minutes for it ... like?

also my old jawbone can track my sleep and i can officially wear it for a swim.

i am basically wearing a 750 Euro notification extender on my wrist now

Weird. but why buy the watch of you knew UPFRONT it doesn't track your sleep and it's not advertised as water proof? Then your here crying why it's not a good device?!
 
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The WSJ example you keep repeating, is a bad one to use, since it could very well have been correct.

That quarter, iPhone sales dropped from ~47 million to 37 million, with a million of the latter being added to store inventories without sell through.



Of couse, one of Cook's jobs is damage control.
What quarter are you talking about?
 
[...]
In raw numbers and revenue, it'll be easy to spin this as a massive success. In terms of meeting the bar of what's expected from Apple when they go 'all-in' on a new product category, it can be seen as a bit of a disappointment.
Huh... More than 300 posts in and still capable of nuance...

I think this is as good a description of Apple watch as I've seen. It's nothing like a failure, but it didn't really redefine the category. It was well executed, but isn't world changing. Thus, some people are thrilled, many are happy, many are indifferent, and some are disillusioned.
 
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What a thread. So much emotion over logic. Tim is a Great COO, and a Terrible CEO. No vision, no soul. Profits, dividends, and happy shareholders. Nothing else. The Apple Watch will never make it past V2. Apple Music is the worst written Software in Apple's history.

Steve is face down in his grave. It may be too late to save Apple. Jony needs to separate himself in every possible way from Tim, and Eddy. It's up to him and Newsome. I would not be surprised to see Phil leave within 12m. :apple:

I don't think they'll leave. Too much of a cash cow for them.

Anybody ever read 'The Flight of the Buffalo'? Maybe Tim & Co. need to.
 
Yours will be another of those funny posts that we will be laughing at in a few years. They sold a Billion dollars worth in a quarter. That's Billions with a B. Future generations of this watch will make this one look like the iPhone 6 does the original iPhone. Apple either already has, or will soon recoup their development costs on this product. The hill has been taken.

Maybe we will all laugh and point at me in a few years. But it's ok, I'm used to it.

So, billions with a b. That's a lot of money. Out of interest, how much do you think Apple spent on the Watch's research, development, design, prototypes, testing, software development, international marketing, TV advertising, billboards, magazine adverts, manufacture, shipping, staff training...

Suddenly, that b doesn't seem all that impressive. When Apple release sales figures and profit margins, I'll gladly shut up. But until then, I'm confident the Watch has not sold well and has cost Apple dearly in profits, share value and reputation.
 
Why numbers matter:

Unlike the AppleTV which Apple always suggested was a "hobby" and never marketed it hard in the early days, or even now, and was never viewed as "Apple's next big thing," Apple has gone all out marketing-wise with the AW; getting on the wrists of opinion leaders, getting it in the windows of the most elite stores in the world; pushing attention catching variations in the tens of thousands. Apple has done nothing to soften expectations that the AW is a major product...

Except that they buried the revenue with dinky items like earbuds and iPad covers. And where Apple crowed like a proud rooster with sales numbers after the first week of a new product launch, Apple did exactly the opposite here and said, we aren't going to announce numbers because it might give info to competitors. Huh? Good numbers would certainly demoralize competitors, but low numbers might encourage them, or take some shine off Apple's coveted golden exterior.

But investors need to know if Cook knows how to sell like Jobs. The iPhone, the iPad, all could have been asterisks in history had they not been launched with pin point precision -- certainly the iPad, which was mocked for it's name and being just "a big iPhone." And the original iPad was heavy for tablet, laggy, and far from perfect. But it was marketed perfectly so that these 1st gen imperfections didn't matter.

With no sales numbers it's impossible for investors to gauge if the AW sales curve is going up, is flat, or up then straight down. But Cook is playing high the ball. Why? It may be wrong, but its prudent to think its because Apple does have something to hide here. Apple spent over a billion dollars on R&D and promoted AW at two events. So it's clearly not shy about any aspect of the product except sales numbers. But investors don't care if a product is great. They care if it has sales potential and they need good numbers to properly analyze or they have to resort to their own soothsaying.

Well put.

I feel that Cook is being duplicitous with us. That betrays the lack of confidence he has in the product.

The great question is: will Apple go down the pan without Jobs? The agony of that searing question is fearfully upon us. Yes.

Steve Jobs has shown that he was irreplaceable. Cook has brought Apple's profits to all-time highs, but all on Jobs's babies. This feels like the swansong of Apple. Rather like in the 90s, when Apple made record profits even when their product line was falling apart, once again we see the last hurrah of the money machine.

But Apple needs a Steve Jobs to save them; we have no Steve Jobs to save them. :(
 
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I agree. This is a indicator that the product came out too soon. Apple needed to solve the charging/battery issue first, I mean who wants to take it off at night to let it charge and then be conscientious through out the day that you have to get it back on a charger during the evening? This isn't the Apple I knew, they would have never rushed a device to market without solving the tech hurdles first.

That being said I just don't believe wearable tech to be the new thing just yet. It's sad to see generally apple set trends they don't follow them.

Agreed.

It feels as though Apple has come out with a netbook. It's better than all the other netbooks, but it's still a netbook.
 
The WSJ example you keep repeating, is a bad one to use, since it could very well have been correct.

That quarter, iPhone sales dropped from ~47 million to 37 million, with a million of the latter being added to store inventories without sell through.

The early 2013 drop?
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887323596204578240440691304344

dropped from Christmas/Holiday quarter to post Xmas holiday result. Well that is not all that surprising.
The chart of revenue from the early this year.

linechart.png

https://www.macrumors.com/2015/01/27/apple-earnings-1q15/

iPhone demand is cyclical. So as demand drops they stop ordering. Within a year though the demand swings up again. How fast it see-saws is best on time of year and on how staggered country roll outs they are running that year.

50% fall .... didn't happen. There was a decline, but not a 50% decline. Apple probably had an inventory bubble and they hit the brakes in time to even things out over the next quarter ( but after the Holiday sales quarter build was done). It wasn't that phone sales fell by 50% but that they had to much inventory in the pipeline. What Apple is expert at is stopping buying more stuff when they have more than enough. This is usually where other companies like have screwed up ( famoulsly Blackberry and recrecntly Samsung and LG. ). They end up with a bloated pipeline and then have to do promos, fire sales, or worse case inventory write offs to get rid of phones they can't sell at the initial prices.


This watch "analyst" whose posed that 2M/mo was "low ball volume "..... those folks were smoking something.


Of couse, one of Cook's jobs is damage control.

And sometimes it is expectation management. Apple can see the demand numbers turn before the suppliers do. So it isn't very surprising when Apple adjusts quickly when demand changes and that the suppliers typically yelp about how the sky is falling. They are typically the ones who have bragged to the analyst about how the demand curve is going up constantly quarter by quarter. Why analysts believe them for a product that has seasonal swings I don't know.

Apple generally doesn't tell folks what is going to demand far future. They also probably have a low-high range of demand quantity they are expecting. I not sure who is adding fudge factors ( what Apple tells suppliers privately or what voodoo factor the suppliers add on top of Apple's ranges ) but that is likely the main source of these disconnects.

The other issue is that there are multiple suppliers and if one has a delivery constraint that can propagate around ( Apple probably isn't buy "extra" stuff just to hold for a long time.)
 
It's neither a flop nor a home run. In today's world we have to label things winners or losers/successes or failures....no middle ground.

IMHO, as a first generation device it is overpriced and comes up short on functionality. Apple will sell millions (which by some measures is successful), but it's not revolutionizing the wearable market (the somewhat unrealistic bar of success expected by the public and hinted at by all the hype of from Apple.)

In the baseball terms, it's a groundball single hit up the middle.

This launch is being measured somewhat differently because it's Cook's first new product line. And while Jobs had his share of singles, doubles and strike outs - he also hit some mammoth home runs. And fairly or unfairly, Cook's impact will ultimately by the home runs jobs hit in inventing new product categories....not by 'keeping the trains running' by incremental iPhone updates that keep the Apple profit machine running.

In raw numbers and revenue, it'll be easy to spin this as a massive success. In terms of meeting the bar of what's expected from Apple when they go 'all-in' on a new product category, it can be seen as a bit of a disappointment.

I was pessimistic about the Watch and posted here calling it "The Edsel". Turns out I am very impressed with the design. There is a guy in my building who has one, and it brings a smile to my face every time I see it on his wrist. Can't help it. I have been won over. The picture of the 3 Apple watches that they used for this article is another example, for me, of how nice it looks. Eventually a combination of lower power displays and better batteries will allow the face to display constantly if the user wants.

But the real point is that Watch is a first generation device, as you and many others have brought up. It will soon enough be manufactured on a 14 nm process, and lower power RAM and 'permanent' memory technologies are being introduced.

In 30 years, watch will probably have a haptic-holographic display:
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/193032-haptic-holographic-display-turns-thin-air-into-a-touchscreen

_If_ Apple is still around (nothing can be taken for granted in the tech industry, or any industry), Apple could sell hundreds and hundreds of millions of such a Watch.
 
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The irrational haters have something to cling to!
Actually, the non ending vehement hatred of the watch by frosty and others indicates just how successful the watch is. I love mine. It's almost never off my wrist while awake. With version 2 and 3, the watch will really take off, and the haters will really be in a pickle. How about if we donate a few bucks each to get a watch for frosty. After all, he bashes the watch without ever having used one. frosty, do want a watch for free?
 
In 30 years, watch will probably have a haptic-holographic display:
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/193032-haptic-holographic-display-turns-thin-air-into-a-touchscreen

_If_ Apple is still around (nothing can be taken for granted in the tech industry, or any industry), Apple could sell hundreds and hundreds of millions of such a Watch.
In the thirty years leading up to that, Apple will probably sell a couple of hundred million Watches, and the process of refining the Watch every year or two will be part of the process of making such a futuristic model possible.
 
Fair enough. My frustration is really around expectations and this idea that if its not a must have that means it's a flop. Is that bar now for every Apple product, gen 1 has to be a "must have" or it's a flop? Honestly I think that's ridiculous. iPad is the only Apple product that took off fast but now we're seeing it decline and level off a bit.
I think the iPad decline is a product of its fast take off: we all own one now, and the vast majority of us aren't going to upgrade as often as a phone. At a Grand for my 128GB LTE/Wifi iPad Air, I'm not buying another one for a very long time. Granted a fully loaded 6+ isn't any cheaper off contract, but on contract, it does have the illusion of being cheaper, and therefore more "disposable."
 
The analyst expected more than the actual result. It was these analysts who were totally wrong. I bet the security firm wanted to increase APPL weight on ther proprietary portfolio.
 
One reason: AAPL

Those that are hung up on how many watches are sold are most likely investors that want to know where to allocate their investing funds.

Actually, all us owners of AAPL care about is: is AAPL making money. That keeps the share price up. And 3M units for $1B in sales of a first gen product, seems to be ok with me. Add in the profits from the other stuff they make...

...I'm a happy camper.
 
They sold relatively well, considering that these are a niche product which isn't supposed to sell in the trillions like a phone might.

Well, it seems they outsold the 1st gen iPad, and I remember tons of people saying (and I must admit I agreed, til I held one) that it was just a bloated iPod Touch and would never sell. Seems to me they've sole a few more iPads since and have done alright with them. I'll probably wait until at least the third gen before I get a watch: I have a wish list of a few things I'd like to see before I do. Like the iPad, I didn't get one until the 4th gen (iPad Air), when it had the FaceTime camera, high res screen and larger capacity the first gen lacked.

I for one, am curious and excited to see where the watch goes with development. I really hope the rumours of other materials is true. I'd like a titanium case, as I'm allergic to stainless steel and am not fussy about the aluminum. Don't get me started on the gold. A $10K gold Rolex could last centuries. I can't see the $10K Apple Watch Edition lasting more than decade at the very longest.
 
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