you seem very confident of your repetition of this point
what are you basing your opinion on exactly?
Based on: direction of sales of desktop computers, based on direction of sales of PC parts in the market, based on growing sales of mobile computers, based on direction of Intel and AMD development, and based on direction of technical limits of smaller nodes, in which largest die possible may very soon be 400 mm2 from current 900 mm2, based on piling manufacturing and design costs of chips, while also booming game console market and handheld market, while at the same time - upcoming paradigm shift in how we interact with ocmputers, which Apple Vision Pro is only pointing us. Voice control based interaction with computers, gesture control, AI intergation on OS level. That is coming. VERY rapidly.
Intel invested in dGPU to have drivers ready so they can provide integrated solution, like Apple does. AMD - the same thing, for yuears but only with Strix Point in 2024 we will see finally new design with wider memory bus, and pretty large GPU integrated into the SOC package. But both are investing in AI specifcally to have solutions for the paradigm shift that is coming to how we interact with computers, and you NEED integrated hardware for such solutions, because of the AI capabilities.
Overall market will evolve, it will have to. I expect that in very near future, Nvidia GPUs will become at best current midrange offerings, but not because they will forget about the gaming market. It will be required because of reticle limits of process nodes.
Thats why(evolution of the market) Nvidia also wanted to buy ARM, to be able to integrate their GPUs into CPUs, because currently their designs are incompartible, which recent AI supercomputer, as they call it, shown, where CPU and dGPU parts are on separate substrats, but connected through fabric. With market being pushed into integrated solutions: Nvidia will have no place on consumer market, which will be solely: Intel + AMD integrated designs, unless for Nvidia, something miracoulus happens.
DIY is dying, on consumer side and is becoming a nieche, enthusiast nieche. There is more and more mobile chips being manufactured, mobile chips - soldered into BGA packages.
So what is the direction here? Using those, same BGA packages, and soldering into typical DIY motherboards. You get all of the benefits of upgradebility with all of the drawbacks of integrated systems. You buy whole platform. Some of them will come with soldered RAM, some of them will come in the form of NUC, SFF computer, some of them will come in the form of AIO, some of them will come in the form of laptop. Doesn't this remind us of what Apple is doing? Why would Intel and AMD do something like this? Because of manufacturing and design costs. You design one solution to scale up from mobile to desktop thermal envelopes. You simplify manufacturing of already extremely complex products, and packages. And don't think that it will not happen. We ALREADY have motherboards with soldered into them mobile chips, like here:
https://www.msi.com/Motherboard/PRO-HM570TI-B-I526
Integration of SOCs is the direction of the whole, overall market. Death of desktop DIY is just emanation of changing preferences of customers. Im not saying that Desktop DIY will die completely, never said it exactly(even when I said that it "will die even more"), just that it will become a nieche within a nieche. Only the highest end, enthusiast level with extremely high profit margin, that is supposed to counteract the lower volume of sales, and extremely high manufacturing and design costs.
www.statista.com
