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No doubt we’re years away from AR being to the point where it will be ubiquitous, which is why I say it’s the future. I don’t see smart phones going away any time soon, and likely they will be required for compute power for initial iterations of AR glasses and maybe that will be true long into the future.

I don’t know exactly what the future holds for tech, but I do know enough to take learnings from the past and use what’s physically possible with certain materials today to come up with a good guess of what will and won’t work.

Maybe people will be ok with plastic or plastic/glass laminated screens again, like they were before Apple made rigid glass the standard, but I know my own experience with my Compaq iPaq back in the ‘90’s was horrid and that was with a flat panel (plastic covered glass screen). Certainly material science has advanced, but I’ve been in the plastic, paper and wood industries for more than 25 years and realize that sometimes, because of the physical characteristics of materials, that you can’t get everything you want - specifically related to this discussion, you can’t have a rigid material also be foldable. The company I used to own figured out how to make wood, which we all think of as being a rigid material, be able to be folded 180 degrees onto itself without cracking (in one direction). But to do that, we had to peel the wood off of logs at 0.006” / 0.15mm thick, which much like Samsung’s ultra thin glass, produces a flexible material, but eliminates its rigidity.

I do think the one solution for a foldable device would be to create separate panels that meet up with no gap or bezel, much like the device that was shown on HBO’s Westworld. But even this idea would need to account for dust or dirt getting in the mechanism or between the panels which could cause damage. I actually hoped that Microsoft would have done this, instead of their gapped / bezeled two screen device, but clearly it’s more complicated to create, at least with current tech.

Privacy is already an issue and something that will require ongoing work, regardless of whether it’s with glasses that have cameras in them or our current smart devices that already have 2, 3, 4 or 5 cameras that are able to take photos and videos even in full dark. Google was ahead of their time with the Glass, and since then everyone is carrying around phones that are recording videos or pictures. If I had to guess, we’ll see Apple offer a hampered version of AR as they attempt to provide privacy protections, while other manufactures just allow for unfettered video feeds from glasses and the market will decide what’s acceptable.

Well said, always a pleasure to have a nice discussion. The one thing that I disagree with is comparing the Fold to a 1990's Ipaq, I was a big user of Pocket PC's and there is no comparison to those and the Fold's screen. Yes the Fold is a bit softer than full glass, much of that is because of the PET screen protector, but even sans protector you can still gouge the screen. But it's really amazingly glass like, much much closer than any plastic screen will ever be. I'm even more impressed that I can use a stylus on it. But bottom line, I don't disagree that there is definitely a trade off for having a folding screen, as I've said before it's simply if that trade off acceptable in exchange for a much larger screen.
 
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There are people, like me, who remember the beginning of the cell phone industry and actually owned the early versions. My boss had the original Motorola brick cell phone, while my first was a bag phone - literally came with a bag to hold the coiled cord and amplifier / electronics. Back then, there was no thought about being able to carry a cell phone in your pocket, but that quickly changed. I had early Motorola flip phones, then got what was for a period of time the thinnest cell phone in the world, a Sanyo, which I loved because it was pocketable. When you’re talking about a folding, full sized smartphone, it’s going to have to be effectively twice as thick as current candy bar smartphones, since you need close to twice the amount of battery to drive the double sized screen.

I’m pretty sure most people are NOT going to want to go back to the days of needing a cell phone holster that they wear on their belts to hold their device, so thinness isn’t going away.
I really didn't expect this reply, i had in mind that thinness was just fetistized by people and tech giants to the point it got ridiculous that now any slight increase in thickness would add negativity. I am fine with the thickness of my current phone but i dont want it any thinner.
 
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It's not a lack of imagination. In my head I've been imagining folding screens and bendy devices since the 90s. I was a PDA collector before smart phones became a thing. But imagining something and making something useful with little user friction is a very very different thing. I can imagine myself in Iron Man's suit. But making a suit like that that doesn't kill the wearer is something else ?

A lot of things just can't be done like they appear in our minds or in movies. Self tying shoes sounds simpler than making a user friendly bendy phone. Even that is hard.

Yet Samsung (and other companies) have managed to make foldable phones which have very reasonable trade offs. Whether those trade offs are acceptable is your own personal decision, but they are more than acceptable for a lot, 2.6 million Q3 2021 last I looked. Technology will only improve on this, and that's why I put the imagination part in this. If the paradigm was to have soft, plastic screens easily damaged from the 1990s and someone said hey lets make a slab phone, you probably would have the same objections.
 
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Yet Samsung (and other companies) have managed to make foldable phones which have very reasonable trade offs.

I have seen so many users just sell them in second hand stores after getting tired of them. That's usually what happens when the excitement wears off and people go back to something simpler and more practical to use.

Look how many used are listed for sale:


Then click on each one and see how many stores have these used devices. It's crazy. This is a flop. People buy them and then get rid of them. Never saw a new device disposed so quickly. It takes much longer for so many new iPhones to appear on second hand market.
 
Plus you can have that cool, evil genius mastermind taking over the world look.
Reminds me of when i went to this cool cafe caravan thingy that had a staircase that led to some second floor thing above the vehicle i sat like some evil lord of cheesegraters near the fences/barriers, a bunch of kids came and looked above to see THE. LORD. OF. CHEESEGRATER MACINTOSH DEVICES!
and then they ran away for no reason.
 
I have seen so many users just sell them in second hand stores after getting tired of them. That's usually what happens when the excitement wears off and people go back to something simpler and more practical to use.

And I've seen so many users who love them to pieces and keep them for a long time. Going back to anecdotal experiences doesn't help much.
 
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You are still comparing apples to oranges, I'm not arguing a Fold device versus a larger iPad tablet, only the similar screen sized iPad mini. The Fold's market is growing, although I'm sure it was dwarfed by mini 6 sales, although I have no reference to back that up. The Fold is definitely a niche market, no argument there. Apple's tablet sales (for all tablets) Q3 2021 were 14 million, most likely higher in Q4 with the holidays and the new iPads. I would think that the ipad mini was only a small percentage of that, but can only surmise without numbers, but even at very optimistic 25% that's a solid 3.5 million. But you still can't take Samsung out of the game, they announced 1 million in foldable sales about a month after release, not too shoddy for a niche market, and more importantly significant growth and market penetration year over year.

Edit: Found that Q3 2021 2.6 million foldables sold, 93% of those by Samsung, not shabby at all, with predictions of an even better Q4.

But as I said, it's a niche market, not only because of the high price tag, but also all the perceived negatives it may or may not suffer from, but still has good sales and just like Apple not abandoning the iPad mini or the iPhone SE because of niche sales, there isn't any reason for Samsung to abandon foldables from a financial pov.
Couple points:

1. iPad mini sales are much smaller than that. If it was anything even remotely close to that, it wouldn't be the neglected step child of the iPad lineup.

2. 2.6 millions foldables in Q3 2021 means absolutely no one outside of the curious tech bubble bought one. There were nearly 350 million smartphones sold in Q3 2021. That's not even 1%. You need to be aware of the size of the tech bubble. There are a few million people total who will buy absolutely anything new. They are not a market. No company anywhere makes products for this segment for any length of time. Companies like Apple and Samsung know that they can make anything and sell at least that many to those people. That's meaningless. After a year or so, those people are gone and there are no more sales. They don't plan around that. Or at least, Apple doesn't. Samsung has no problem making an entire product just as a gamble so their brand can look fancy and relevant, and will happily cancel it as soon as they've recouped r&d revenue on it.
 
How big is your pocket?

Current smartphones are at the maximum size that most would consider to be "pocketable". Doubling that screen size just doesn't provide enough benefit to put up with the shortcomings in durability and inconvenience.
An iPad mini folded in half would be about 3.8" x 5.3". That would fit into most jacket pockets (and maybe a few pants too)
 
Couple points:

1. iPad mini sales are much smaller than that. If it was anything even remotely close to that, it wouldn't be the neglected step child of the iPad lineup.

2. 2.6 millions foldables in Q3 2021 means absolutely no one outside of the curious tech bubble bought one. There were nearly 350 million smartphones sold in Q3 2021. That's not even 1%. You need to be aware of the size of the tech bubble. There are a few million people total who will buy absolutely anything new. They are not a market. No company anywhere makes products for this segment for any length of time. Companies like Apple and Samsung know that they can make anything and sell at least that many to those people. That's meaningless. After a year or so, those people are gone and there are no more sales. They don't plan around that. Or at least, Apple doesn't. Samsung has no problem making an entire product just as a gamble so their brand can look fancy and relevant, and will happily cancel it as soon as they've recouped r&d revenue on it.

Of course, some products are sold as loss leaders, I can definitely see the Fold series as Samsung wanting to add PR to itself as a company. It was probably the same with the Note series as well. But Apple certainly has this, the iPad mini especially if sales are as low as you say. The iPhone SE is also another lower selling phone, yet a new one is supposed to come out soon.

Then again sales and market penetration has increased year over year, we can revisit this next year when the Flip 4 and Fold 4 have been out for a couple of quarters. Personally I have no idea which way it will go, and I don't think $1800 foldables will ever bring in any significant market share. But if the technology evolves and the price keeps coming down, that's a different story. My Nostradamus abilities tell me shrinkable (note how I did not say foldable) phones will be a significant part of the market, and if price allows will become ubiquitous as the problem of having a larger screen in a more portable package will always be there.
 
Definitely! I'm still waiting for them to nix the whole laptop experiment thing, seriously who would want a computer in a smaller, more portable version?!?
Interesting fact: core components are now operating so fast that they must fit within a few square inches (and shrinking). Notebook format is practically unavoidable for normal use, thanks to the limited speed of light. iMac is little more than an oversized notebook, screen too big for portable but overall design is little different from a laptop.
 
Well ANY folding phone will be roughly 2x the thickness of the device when it's unfolded. Apple can't avoid that unless they make the device like a laptop, where the screen folds of the 'body' of the device which is the thick part.

My point is just that the only people who will want to deal with the extra weight and thickness are a few 'oh new shiny' people who buy things for their newness and those people who routinely carry a phone and tablet now. For people who only carry a phone all or most of the time, it's extra weight and bulk for little benefit.
Going by the existing Samsung folding phones, they are thinner than 2x. It's not just like two phones joined together.
 
Of course, some products are sold as loss leaders, I can definitely see the Fold series as Samsung wanting to add PR to itself as a company. It was probably the same with the Note series as well. But Apple certainly has this, the iPad mini especially if sales are as low as you say. The iPhone SE is also another lower selling phone, yet a new one is supposed to come out soon.

Then again sales and market penetration has increased year over year, we can revisit this next year when the Flip 4 and Fold 4 have been out for a couple of quarters. Personally I have no idea which way it will go, and I don't think $1800 foldables will ever bring in any significant market share. But if the technology evolves and the price keeps coming down, that's a different story. My Nostradamus abilities tell me shrinkable (note how I did not say foldable) phones will be a significant part of the market, and if price allows will become ubiquitous as the problem of having a larger screen in a more portable package will always be there.
The iPhone SE has been extremely successful since its inception, and continues to be a big factor in drawing Android users to iPhone. It has served its purpose and has only gained for Apple, not lost.

The iPad mini and iPhone mini are both totally different stories. The iPad mini has been on the chopping block several times since its inception, and has been allowed to flounder into near obsolesce twice. It's recent update is perhaps the last ditch effort to revive the form factor, and as near as I can tell it hasn't had any impact on iPad sales, and has been a disappointment to a lot of mini fans, which is not good, as there aren't many.

The iPhone mini was the result of lots of whining by the same small group of people for years, who unsurprisingly did not turn out to be a market at all. We've heard for a year and a half now that iPhone 13 mini would be the last iPhone mini since iPhone 12 mini disappointed so substantially, and the design was obviously a 2 year bet. Had it not been a 2 year bet, the 12 mini probably would have been the first and last mini iPhone...though I don't know if Apple would even be willing to swallow a mistake like that publicly.
 
Initially this tech looks great but when you get 6 months to a year down the line the fold looks like ****, it's a great idea as a concept but in practice every time you fold the screen it puts pressure on the parts that eventually leaves you with a line down the screen.

It was a project to see what could be done like many Android phones not if it should be done, I personally don't see a folding iPhone any time soon, what benefit does it give a wider screen with an ugly worn out line down the screen after a few weeks/months, no thanks from me!
 
Mark Gurman and Dan Barbera were praising the heck out of the Fold 3 on the recent MacRumors podcast. They essentially echoed what I've been saying which is that the folding iPhone is inevitable and will be awesome when it finally arrives.
 
You are still comparing apples to oranges, I'm not arguing a Fold device versus a larger iPad tablet, only the similar screen sized iPad mini. The Fold's market is growing, although I'm sure it was dwarfed by mini 6 sales, although I have no reference to back that up. The Fold is definitely a niche market, no argument there. Apple's tablet sales (for all tablets) Q3 2021 were 14 million, most likely higher in Q4 with the holidays and the new iPads. I would think that the ipad mini was only a small percentage of that, but can only surmise without numbers, but even at very optimistic 25% that's a solid 3.5 million. But you still can't take Samsung out of the game, they announced 1 million in foldable sales about a month after release, not too shoddy for a niche market, and more importantly significant growth and market penetration year over year.

Edit: Found that Q3 2021 2.6 million foldables sold, 93% of those by Samsung, not shabby at all, with predictions of an even better Q4.

But as I said, it's a niche market, not only because of the high price tag, but also all the perceived negatives it may or may not suffer from, but still has good sales and just like Apple not abandoning the iPad mini or the iPhone SE because of niche sales, there isn't any reason for Samsung to abandon foldables from a financial pov.
We are in the infant stages of foldables. The Fold made massive leaps in just 3 generations. The flaws of the Fold 3 are obvious (high price, no dust protection, exposed gap when folded) however such issues will be ironed out in future Fold models. I expect the foldables market to explode growth-wise the next 2-4 years. Just in time for the folding iPhone.
 
Mark Gurman and Dan Barbera were praising the heck out of the Fold 3 on the recent MacRumors podcast. They essentially echoed what I've been saying which is that the folding iPhone is inevitable and will be awesome when it finally arrives.
Yes, Myke Hurley at Relay.fm has been using a Samsung Fold for a while now and seems to like it a lot. Obviously these are not, yet, mature product and there are compromises but things are looking more promising than they were just a couple of years ago.
 
The iPhone SE has been extremely successful since its inception, and continues to be a big factor in drawing Android users to iPhone. It has served its purpose and has only gained for Apple, not lost.

The iPad mini and iPhone mini are both totally different stories. The iPad mini has been on the chopping block several times since its inception, and has been allowed to flounder into near obsolesce twice. It's recent update is perhaps the last ditch effort to revive the form factor, and as near as I can tell it hasn't had any impact on iPad sales, and has been a disappointment to a lot of mini fans, which is not good, as there aren't many.

The iPhone mini was the result of lots of whining by the same small group of people for years, who unsurprisingly did not turn out to be a market at all. We've heard for a year and a half now that iPhone 13 mini would be the last iPhone mini since iPhone 12 mini disappointed so substantially, and the design was obviously a 2 year bet. Had it not been a 2 year bet, the 12 mini probably would have been the first and last mini iPhone...though I don't know if Apple would even be willing to swallow a mistake like that publicly.

You're right, I meant the iPhone mini.
 
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