I can only imagine how much it'll drop if Apple's next quarter is softer than expected, or if the 7 doesn't beat the 6S. Eventually they have to hit their peak or at least have a pause and it's not going to be pretty when they do.
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Apple to Cut iPhone 6s and 6s Plus Production by 30% in Q1 2016
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I can only imagine how much it'll drop if Apple's next quarter is softer than expected, or if the 7 doesn't beat the 6S. Eventually they have to hit their peak or at least have a pause and it's not going to be pretty when they do.
Thousands of other companies sell Android phones, but only Samsung sells Android phones at any realistic profit. Only Samsung sells Android phones with any real volume (other than the Chinese vendors, who are also way behind Samsung in units and profit).
It may be that the S6 is old news, but the more recent Note 5 is cheaper than the iPhone 6S, let alone the 6S Plus. It's a better phone in nearly every way (if you put aside the Android/iOS difference). But it's still cheaper.
I think customers are starting to see that they can save money and have a good phone with Android - the Galaxy and iPhone are no longer the same price at the store. It's the same reason Macs never sold at anything like the scale Windows PCs did. Apple has always made more money per unit than PC vendors (because PCs are a commodity, like Android phones today), but I don't think Apple will break iPhone sales records for much longer, and I think their market share will start to decline unless they want to be a commodity price point.
Android caught up with iOS much faster than Windows did with Mac OS.
It will be increasingly difficult to get people to upgrade often because iPhones have become very powerful since 2012 and because the carrier subsidies are gone.
To a non-power user, the iPhone 5 and 5C work perfectly well. The 5S and 6 are still excellent. There's just less incentive to go for a 6S, especially when it costs $649 for the 16GB model!
A former coworker of mine that I still keep in touch with upgraded from a 4S to a 5S in 2013 and her reaction was "wow big improvement". She upgraded from a 5S to a 6S in 2015 and her reaction was "eh, almost the same but bigger screen. Not much new".
To a non-power user, the iPhone 5 and 5C work perfectly well. The 5S and 6 are still excellent. There's just less incentive to go for a 6S, especially when it costs $649 for the 16GB model!
A former coworker of mine that I still keep in touch with upgraded from a 4S to a 5S in 2013 and her reaction was "wow big improvement". She upgraded from a 5S to a 6S in 2015 and her reaction was "eh, almost the same but bigger screen. Not much new".
Yep... Apple will one day stop breaking their own records.
It happened Samsung already. There was one quarter a year ago when their quarterly sales failed to beat the sales that same quarter the year prior.
There will be a point when all companies reach peak sales. It's how they manage after that will determine their fate.
If Apple can sell somewhere around 200 million iPhones a year for the foreseeable future... and make billions of dollars of profit in the process... they'll be doing well.
Most companies can't even sell 20 million phones... and they make NO profit.
Precisely the reason why I posted it
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Yeah I gotta say I'm less interested in upgrading due to the lack of contract options. Apple is going to have to wow me with the 7 before I buy one off contract.
How about faster tethered charging like other flag ships phones?
How about shipping the phones with an iPad-like charger?
The current wall wart is a damn travesty.
Yeah, and that's probably what her reaction to the iPhone 7 will be when she plays around with it at the Apple store. I don't think most people will be wowed by wireless charging (unless that's a 7s feature). Some people may be miffed if the headphone jack disappears (even if it's for the best ultimately) and/or if the home button disappears as well. They will appreciate a smaller iPhone 7, but the average person won't care about the A10. Like I said in a previous post, welcome to a mature smartphone market.
Biggest thing to note is: Apple makes over 60% of their profits on iPhone. Samsung could easily survive the complete collapse of the Galaxy line. I'm not sure Apple could without substantial changes. That's the scary thing I think.
If they could send me back to 2001 (just before the iPod) to buy some AAPL stock, I'd be very, VERY happy!
From the linked story:
The U.S. company had initially told parts makers to keep production of the iPhone 6s and 6s Plus for the quarter at the same level as with their predecessors -- the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus -- a year earlier.
Even the summary says the same:Apple is said to have originally told its suppliers to continue Q1 2016 production of the iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus at the same rate as the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus a year prior
That 30% is a reduction from last year, not last quarter. And the parts suppliers the story lists are the ones that make the screen and camera for the iphones. Unless Apple is using new suppliers, a reduction from those suppliers means less iPhones being made.
The 6S also got Band 30, which will be important on AT&T. For someone keeping a phone 2 years, the S models historically have been better, because the faster processors really make a difference.
I am on the S cycle right now and I still have my unlimited contract with AT&T. I was however going to keep my 5S until the iPhone 7 just because there wasn't enough to make me want to upgrade and my 5S still works great, however since AT&T will no longer be renewing contracts as of January 8th, I just ordered a 6S 128GB so I can still get the subsidy one more time. It will arrive on Friday, and it may be my last iPhone for a while as I really don't want to pay for the phone outright to keep my unlimited data. At least I still have 2 years to figure out what I want to do at that point.
Well its simple:
1)The iphone is an expensive hardware, not many can afford to upgrade the whole family on yearly basis
2)People are kind of expecting a scientific breakthrough every year to have a new super phone. Not much technology advancement happen within a year
3)The iphone has finally reached a state where it can do everything the consumer wants (kind of like PCs for the past 5 years). There is very little need for speed upgrades
Just like the iPad, the market is finally saturated and everyone has a smartphone already.
1)The iphone is an expensive hardware, not many can afford to upgrade the whole family on yearly basis
2)People are kind of expecting a scientific breakthrough every year to have a new super phone. Not much technology advancement happen within a year
3)The iphone has finally reached a state where it can do everything the consumer wants (kind of like PCs for the past 5 years). There is very little need for speed upgrades
Just like the iPad, the market is finally saturated and everyone has a smartphone already.
I was quoting the exact words from the story. Did you not read it?
"Citinglackluster sales, Nikkei says iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus inventory has "piled up" at retailers across the world, leading Apple to scale backproduction from January through March to get rid of excess stock."
For what it's worth the WSJ is reporting that the Chinese government is giving FoxConn subsidies to reduce layoffs (all of $12 million), and that they started the New Year slowdown earlier this year. My guess is that sales are slower than expected, but it could be the larger economy rather than something Apple-specific. We won't get any info from Apple until the 26th. Expect a bumpy ride the next 3 weeks if you are a shareholder.
That would be great. Maybe they could then turn their focus back to making their Mac computer awesome again.
Another thing to note: Apple's other 40% would still be #54 on the Fortune 500.
What is a collapse? How quickly do you think Apple will go from selling over 200 million iPhones a year... to selling ZERO iPhones a year? Don't forget that Apple is the only company selling iOS phones. And for the time being... plenty of people like them.
Even if Apple only sold 100 million iPhones a year... a drop of 50%... that's still a $60 BILLION business. And a profitable business to boot.
And we haven't even mentioned the $200 billion in cash they have.
Look... I hope it never comes to this... but Apple is in a much better position for survival than nearly every other electronics company.
You're right though... Samsung could stop making phones and rely on shipbuilding and insurance.
But I'd hate to see the state of the world if either Samsung or Apple is in financial trouble.
Yes and no. Short term I agree with you, but long term the market gets it right. Apple does need to find a new revenue source if it is to avoid a "lost decade" like Microsoft in the 2000s. The Street is valuing it like a cash cow vs a growth company right now.
My concern is that a year or two of stagnation might drive Apple to something rash like an ill-thought acquisition. Tim Cook seems smarter this that, but activist investors like Icahn might grow impatient if iPhone sales stay flat or decline for 2 years and nothing significant comes down the pipeline. An Apple Car is probably at least 5 years down the road, likely longer.
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The Mac is awesome. Look at CES. Everyone introduced Retina MacBook clones.
I went from a 6 to a 6S Plus and love it! Performance and battery life are noticeably improved for my usage. The spec jump to the A9 and increased RAM (and curiosity about the larger screen size; wasn't sure I'd like the size) were the draws for me. The 6S was the first S model enticing enough to me to upgrade, and I'm really glad I did. I love everything about the 6S Plus, including 3D Touch. Of course, YMMV.
I'm sorry I wasn't clear enough. I would like to see some sort of super ultra Mac Mini.
The apple iphone is similar to the motorola v3 interms of the way apple Is introducing features. Every year so far since apple started building iphones the software has the same look and almost the same feel. We are in a world where smartphones is part of our daily lives and atleast should make the iphone more user friendly (like make 3rd party apps easier to get and install or at least make the iphone open source ) kinda like android and stop charging for evey bloody thing in the appstore
Well if they "sell" them back to Apple, I think they will still get about half of the cost difference back just like if they sell it on eBay/Craigslist. So if they buy a 6S instead of a 6 for $100 more, then Apple will give them $50 more back for trade in. At least that is my guess of the market two years from now.
If they give them to someone else, I suspect that person would prefer a 6S instead of a 6 two years from now. Actually significantly so based on how much more future proof the 6S than the 6 is (reasons are RAM, CPU and Force Touch). I don't think you will really be able to hand down a 5S two years from now to a family member.
But if they just use them until they break then yes, they will still have that extra $100 in their pocket. I've never lost or broken a smartphone though. I'm not sure this is consider an inevitable thing for most people. It seems inevitable for my girlfriend though. So I see the issue. Maybe some people will just run their smartphones into the ground. Still I would say for those people the extra $100 expense is worth it for as long as they get to use their phone.
I expect the stock to have slid into the $80s by the time Apple reports earnings. On last quarters earnings call many of the questions were focused on the March and June quarters, which of course Tim Cook refused to comment on. Unless Apple knocks it out of the park and provides better than expected guidance I suspect the call will be brutal. And I wouldn't be surprised if we start hearing chatter about does Tim Cook need to be replaced. I remember in 2013 a Fox Business reporter claimed the Apple board was looking into replacing Cook and demanding he innovate faster. I'm sure the report was BS but it was out there.
Jim Cramer is obsessed with Apple buying Harmon. That's a $6B, 28,000 employee company. He also said Apple should buy Fitbit and Verifone. For me the day to really start worrying about Apple is if it starts making a rash of big name acquisitions. Beats was small yet there's little indication that has been successfully integrated. The Apple Music presentation at WWDC was embarrassing. The Apple Music app/service still needs a lot of work and it appears that 3rd party design firm Ammunition is still involved in the design of Beats headphones. I can only imagine the nightmare if Apple attempted to integrate a much larger company.
And this is what we don't know and why Tim Cook says reading anything into supply chain noise is folly. There was also a DigiTimes story from this fall claiming Apple was taking 30% of its camera business to a different supplier because they got a better deal.
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