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Considering the machines you are using now (and them being good enough), then none of these improvements are likely to matter to you. And same for me. My 2018 mini was "good enough" though sometimes lagged just a touch. My M2 Pro mini is more power than I can use (setting aside that I tried gaming on it for the first time on a Mac in a decade, that is my one use case that pushes my M2 Pro mini).
You’re absolutely right, Mr. TallMan. And my rationality says the same, the M2 Pro mini is like 10 times better than what I already have. And I’ve seen one of those (512/16GB) for 1000€ in the second hand market, pretty new.

However, my irrational mind keeps thinking: an M3 or M4 Mac mini, with just the base SoC, could be almost as powerful as the M2 Pro in CPU power, resulting in a much cheaper device with longer lifespan. And then there’s the possibility of the Mac mini being redesigned. Or maybe I’m lucky and during my one year wait, Apple releases a 12” MacBook, which is the device I really want.

But maybe I should just get an M2 Pro Mac mini if I spot any being even cheaper than this one. Because it’s being rumored that Apple wants to start using QLC NAND for the bigger 1TB and 2TB SSDs (at least on the iPhone), and it is well known that those SSDs have much shorter lifespan.

So maybe waiting so much is not worth it. Ah, the eternal dilemma.
 
Serious question, what happens after they reach 1-Nanometer? What's the next step?​

YearDie shrinkiPhone chipMac chip
20187nmA12-
20197nmA13-
20205nmA14M1
20215nmA15M1
20225nmA16M2
20233nmA17M3

20243nmA18M4

20252nmA19M5
20262nmA20M6
20271.4nmA21M7
20281.4nmA22M8
20291nmA23M9
20301nmA24M10
20310.7nmA25M11
20320.7nmA26M12
20330.5nmA27M13
20340.5nmA28M14
20350.3nmA29M15
20360.3nmA30M16
20370.2nmA31M17

For anyone who works in tech follow your customary replacement cycle.

For us in non-tech who does browsing, email, messaging, VoIP, video conferencing, word processing, presentation and spreadsheet then you can lengthen it to 2-3 longer than that.

Anyone upgrading every decade will feel tech node changes like say from 2020 M1 to 2030 M10.
 

YearDie shrinkiPhone chipMac chip
20187nmA12-
20197nmA13-
20205nmA14M1
20215nmA15M1
20225nmA16M2
20233nmA17M3
20243nmA18M4
20252nmA19M5
20262nmA20M6
20271.4nmA21M7
20281.4nmA22M8
20291nmA23M9
20301nmA24M10
20310.7nmA25M11
20320.7nmA26M12
20330.5nmA27M13
20340.5nmA28M14
20350.3nmA29M15
20360.3nmA30M16
20370.2nmA31M17


For anyone who works in tech follow your customary replacement cycle.

For us in non-tech who does browsing, email, messaging, VoIP, video conferencing, word processing, presentation and spreadsheet then you can lengthen it to 2-3 longer than that.

Anyone upgrading every decade will feel tech node changes like say from 2020 M1 to 2030 M10.
And let’s remind (for the tenth time) our fellow pals that those nanometers are just marketing, not the actual node or transistor size.

Honestly I think the jump to a new gate technology such as the GAA that TSMC is gonna start using with the 2nm chips is hopefully going to represent a much bigger jump than regular node shrinks. But who knows, we’ll see.
 
You’re absolutely right, Mr. TallMan. And my rationality says the same, the M2 Pro mini is like 10 times better than what I already have. And I’ve seen one of those (512/16GB) for 1000€ in the second hand market, pretty new.

However, my irrational mind keeps thinking: an M3 or M4 Mac mini, with just the base SoC, could be almost as powerful as the M2 Pro in CPU power, resulting in a much cheaper device with longer lifespan. And then there’s the possibility of the Mac mini being redesigned. Or maybe I’m lucky and during my one year wait, Apple releases a 12” MacBook, which is the device I really want.

But maybe I should just get an M2 Pro Mac mini if I spot any being even cheaper than this one. Because it’s being rumored that Apple wants to start using QLC NAND for the bigger 1TB and 2TB SSDs (at least on the iPhone), and it is well known that those SSDs have much shorter lifespan.

So maybe waiting so much is not worth it. Ah, the eternal dilemma.
Eternal dilema. And that M2 Pro mini is getting on to a year since release. You really are at tough time to make a buy since the M3 MB Airs are probably only a few months out. And if there are enough M3 chips being made for the Airs, then Apple can put them into a mini. I will say though that for many use cases there is no chance that an M3 mini will outperform an M2 Pro. There just aren't enough cores in the chip. However, the most important metric is single core performance and it is a small upgrade there. The comparison is made a bit more tricky, the M3 Pro chip is, in some ways, again looking at the cores, not a major upgrade over the M2 Pro chip (and for very niche uses, not an upgrade at all (again because the M3 Pro got a different configuration of cores from the M2 Pro)). Though the release of M3 minis should lower the used market price of M2 minis by a few bucks.

I would not hold out hope for smaller screen Apple products in general or a 12" MBA specifically. It is unlikely, but I'd bet on 14" MBAs becoming standard before a 12" MBA gets released again.

I do think the M2 Pro mini is kind of a special computer though. So consider it. I love that the low power chip M2 chip is in a form factor that was made for intel chips, because it has tons of thermal headroom. And while the M3 chip is more powerful, to a certain extent that power simply comes from it pulling more electricity (which produces more heat). I love that for office use my M2 Pro mini does not get warm and certainly the fan never becomes audible. If a future MX Pro chip pulled more electricity, but then needed a fan to go on, that would be a negative to me. Right now only firing up Baldur's Gate 3 gets my mini warm and gets the fan moving a touch.
 
And let’s remind (for the tenth time) our fellow pals that those nanometers are just marketing, not the actual node or transistor size.

Honestly I think the jump to a new gate technology such as the GAA that TSMC is gonna start using with the 2nm chips is hopefully going to represent a much bigger jump than regular node shrinks. But who knows, we’ll see.
Whether it is actually physically possible or just a marketing term does not negate its being used by the general public as a metric on performance improvements.

I have a Mac with a 22nm Intel chip. Looking forward to buying a Mac with a 3nm chip by end of year.
 
I think more and more that they have a software ecosystem falling apart full of issues and glitches that make every single OS, but mostly macOS and HomeKit completely unreliable for anything serious so all they can do is use the insane amount of cash they generate to bully smaller companies and flex about having the greatest and latest hardware innovation.

I am talking almost every day about tech with people and colleagues and the amount of people with little knowledge in tech that tell me that are fed up with iPhone and Mac because of the plethora of issues they have after spending thousands of $$ is just insane. AirPods disconnecting, AirPods making popping sounds, HomePods not responding, iCloud not syncing and so on. The other day at work my colleague showed me he couldn’t switch user account on his Mac and when he tried to reboot it all got stuck. M1 MacBook Pro.

If they don’t break the downward trend with the software it won’t be long before people start migrating platform.
"talking almost every day about tech with people and colleagues and the amount of people with little knowledge in tech that tell me that are fed up with iPhone and Mac.." that's likely to be the problem, lack of knowledge. These days with everyone purporting to be experts the old adage "in the land of the blind the one eyed man is king" seems apt.
 
Honestly I think the jump to a new gate technology such as the GAA that TSMC is gonna start using with the 2nm chips is hopefully going to represent a much bigger jump than regular node shrinks. But who knows, we’ll see.

Samsung has already been doing GAA for a while and it wasn't revolutionary. Their yields have been bad , but if the performance uplift was 'magically better" then there would be much bigger hoopla about being 'first to market'. There isn't.

One issue is that I'm pretty sure this just applies to 'logic' portions of the fab process. SRAM/cache and I/O are still off in a zone disconnected from density increase. If clock faster and don't have data to use ... that doesn't really do much to increase pragmatically real performance. Gets better tech porn micro benchmark boosts , but not as much on more varied code workloads.

There are improvements, but it is more so to stay on the same general range of incremental update improvements were getting historically. Just keeping those is a challenge going forward.
 
Just upgraded from M1 13" to M3 Max 14" a month ago, whatever comes new is beyond my consideration in the next 5 to 10 years.
 
One issue is that I'm pretty sure this just applies to 'logic' portions of the fab process. SRAM/cache and I/O are still off in a zone disconnected from density increase. If clock faster and don't have data to use ... that doesn't really do much to increase pragmatically real performance. Gets better tech porn micro benchmark boosts , but not as much on more varied code workloads.

There are improvements, but it is more so to stay on the same general range of incremental update improvements were getting historically.

Thanks for sharing that. It's a reality that is typically avoided by the clickbait YouTubers.

TSMC is investing in much 2nm capability because it's likely their 2nm capability will be used for many years as the standard for processors for many companies.

As you noted, the parts of the SoC that deal with the external world are not able to shrink as much as the bit-flipping logic/arithmetic portions.

It's one reason why I doubt we will see another significant transformation in the small computer industry, as far as processors go.

And given the current capability of the M3 series chips, I really doubt people will need anything more. "2nm" will not be a revolution but will be a good sales pitch.
 
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And then there’s the possibility of the Mac mini being redesigned. Or maybe I’m lucky and during my one year wait, Apple releases a 12” MacBook, which is the device I really want.

There are a very substantially large enough Mini's that are 'slotted' into rack mounts that major redesign of the Mini is unlikely. For better or worse Apple has likely 'baked-in' the Mini form factor for a long time. Can get changes on the ports but some radical redesign likely isn't coming.

The 12" Macbook is likely in the same zone that the iPhone Mini is. Yeah, there are some people who like it. But Apple is likely looking at the larger group of folks who want larger screens. The MBA 15" probably swamps the MB 12" the same way the 'Plus' swamps the 'Mini'. And the $1,299 iPad Pro creeps in on the area from the "other" direction for those who prioritize lightweight over physical keyboard.

The MB 12" was also largely the origins of the butterfly keyboard. That isn't going to try to bring that back. If don't if make it thicker to do a normal keyboard just reducing the weight gap with the MBA 13".

Apple's line up really needs what the "Macbook" name was originally used for . (not yet another more upscale priced system, but the entry level Mac laptop). Largely incoherent hat 'Air' on Mac is 'entry level' and 'Air' in the iPad line up is middle. the comatose M1 model just to get to 'cheaper' is kind of ridiculous.
 
Can we stop with the nanometer stuff before we hit the 0.1nm chip design. Let's move to Angstroms (aka Ångstroms / 10^-10 resolution).
  1. No decimals (for now...)
  2. A cool glyph
So, this is a 20Å chip to me.
 
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Thanks for sharing that. It's a reality that is typically avoided by the clickbait YouTubers.

TSMC is investing in much 2nm capability because it's likely their 2nm capability will be used for many years as the standard for processors for many companies.

There are multiple factors in play, The fab equipment ban on Chinese Fab companies is likely going to have a side effect of more of TSMC older business getting eaten away more quickly. There is a very large sizable chunk of TSMC is selling the mature fab processes. If TSMC's competitors can't spend money on new EUV equipment they probably have money to spend money on something else. That something else is TSMC's non 'protected' business.

The second issue is that 2nm 'bake time' complexity is likely going to be in the N3B range, not the N3E. it is just 'better' (more effective) multi-patterning. If getting less finished wafers per month tnen need more machines to hit the same finished throughput rate ( more machines , higher finished wafer costs ). In short, they just need more floor space to do what they did before.

Only gets a bit worse when move to the even larger High-NA EUV machines that are coming ( which TSMC isn't waiting for). To 'print' even smaller you need an even bigger machine than have now. ( somewhat also makes the old facilities less reusable in swapping out old tools for new tools since the tool layout is much different. )


As you noted, the parts of the SoC that deal with the external world is not able to shrink as much as the bit-flipping logic/arithmetic portions.

There are some "backside power" ( PowerVia /Intel ) tricks . But again side effect to make the 'bake time' longer ( and production complexity higher). However, those aren't coming in TSMC N2. A later modifier ( N2_ I forget which letter. ) will pick those up. And the price could creep higher also.

Some progress will come for the other elements , but all three still aren't going to move at the same 'improvement' rate.

It's one reason why I doubt we will see another significant transformation in the small computer industry, as far as processors go.

Intel's Meteor Lake ( multiple chiplet with 3D chip interposer) might be a 1-3 generations 'too soon' for mainstream small computer industry. There are ways around some of the trends. They just don't lead to dramatically lower production costs. The notion that many folks are addicted to ( small computers are going to get cheaper over time).

More than decent change that the 'war' against discrete GPUs in commonly deployed user systems will expand past Apple. Laptops were already 'winning' but some other form factors (not box with slot) will shift the playing field.

And given the current capability of the M3 series chips, I really doubt people will need anything more. "2nm" will not be a revolution but will be a good sales pitch.

The rush to let the computer do the majority of the 'thinking/writing/creating' points otherwise. If the AI/ML push isn't a medium term 'bubble' , the M3 isn't enough. It is enough 'right now' , but down the road if there is enough "local inference' uptick it isn't enough.

And future generation phones are likely going to 'eat into' the laptops in a similar way that laptops' ate into' desktops. ( and in turn how the "attack of the killer microchip' ate into the servers and mainframes the decades before. )

The 'transformation' will be in where the bulk of the customer base went. That "good enough for big majority of basic user's needs" is a threat to the current form factors.
 
"talking almost every day about tech with people and colleagues and the amount of people with little knowledge in tech that tell me that are fed up with iPhone and Mac.." that's likely to be the problem, lack of knowledge. These days with everyone purporting to be experts the old adage "in the land of the blind the one eyed man is king" seems apt.
80% of users don’t have big knowledge of the product they are using. Ask how many people know about theft protection or what an AirTag is..
I think if people that don’t understand much start being fed up there will be a slow mass sentiment of dissatisfaction and no one is happy of the fact that they are sort of forced to buy another iPhone because of the ease of transferring their “life” from the old to the new. Once the trend starts it might be hard for apple to come up with another big catalyst to drive people back in.

They seriously need to work on the software because having so many glitches at this price levels is insane. A friend of mine just got a xiaomi phone and I can joke day and night about china spying on him but I know he did the right move there, $500 instead of $1000, more or less the same functions that matters to him: connectivity, WhatsApp, streaming, phone calling. That’s what we need at the end of the day. If I can get a product with a 10% less features maybe but at 50% of the price, considering also all the macro economics etc, why not.

I’m personally not ready for the jump but I am definitely fed up with all the issues I’m having. The other day I couldn’t even connect the AirPods to listen to a WhatsApp message, it keept disconnecting, I had to reboot the phone while I was driving. And I have to use the AirPods because over the Bluetooth of the car it stops every second, literally. You play and it stops. Impossible to listen. It’s not WhatsApp specific, same happens with telegram. iMessage is unusable for long audio messages, the screen goes off while recording and the recording stops. It’s a complete joke
 
Intel's Meteor Lake ( multiple chiplet with 3D chip interposer) might be a 1-3 generations 'too soon' for mainstream small computer industry.
It's not clear to me what you mean there. As for Meteor Lake, I've been looking at Intel's new "Ultra" line of offerings and there are already some computers that are announced that will be delivered Real Soon Now. When I was considering getting a small Windows system, a next generation to the NUC-style of PCs, I decided to shop around but have yet to find any mini-ITX boards with Intel Ultra chips.

Regardless, Intel's approach is yet to be proven as being impactful in the market. The next 12 months should shake that out.

The rush to let the computer do the majority of the 'thinking/writing/creating' points otherwise.

As Apple has been alluding to finding a way to divide their AI future capability, between the handset (iPhone, iPad) and remote processing, I do believe that is the future.

Not just for Apple but for others too.

A division of labor between the (relatively) low cost personal unit (smartphone or laptop/desktop) and a remote database with large (and expensive) computer suites, sounds like a win for commercial entities who want to offer such services.

As such, I really don't see a day anytime soon where the average person will want to host chatGPT on their own device. Maybe in the far future that will happen, but the next 5 to 10 years I don't think it will.
 
And future generation phones are likely going to 'eat into' the laptops in a similar way that laptops' ate into' desktops. ( and in turn how the "attack of the killer microchip' ate into the servers and mainframes the decades before. )

I've written many times in these forums that the Day of the Desktop is (almost) over. (It's a follow up to my snarky answer to those whining about non-user-upgradeable memory that The Day of the DIMM is Over.)

People want smartphones, they don't want big bulky desktops.

2nm process will just help inch along the doom of the desktop as low cost, high performance laptops continue their march as being the product people want to buy (if they want something larger than a smartphone.)
 
I will wait. I will upgrade when the invisible nanometer is out :D Might be difficult to justify the price..
 
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