I think a more interesting question to pose might be: At what will Apple hit their next big slump/hurdle? Ostensibly they could put a product like a TV set that could flop. I'm not talking about that though. I'm referring to their overall bottom line. There appears to be in no end in sight to their ever mounting success.
Although this is not a MAJOR slump .. more like a mis-step ... But I would say the adoption of Thunderbolt.
What's the point?
Firewire is great, much better than USB2. But let's face it, Firewire just never really "took off" compared to USB2. Look at the peripherals that are available, the price points, etc. Firewire is serviced by a few niche players or else by small segmants of large company's product lines.
Yes, I KNOW that firewire is better. That's not the point. The PC world, by sheer volume, owns the peripherals market. That has been proven by the fact that firewire IS so much better, but is probably outsold 30 to 1 (compared to USB) when it comes to real hardware.
Adopting Thunderbolt is a big yawn for me. So, Apple has it in their displays. Who really cares. Even us Apple fans don't hardly buy any Apple displays (really).
What about hard disks? Do you see a bunch of external hard disk makers all climbing over one another to come out with TB hard disks? Nope. So far, I think ONLY LaCie has announced one. I'll bet OWC will have one too. But so far, TB has been a bid yawner.
And with USB3 out, TB is even a harder sell.
I will tell you the first real missteps that are (is) coming. Apple will either:
- merge tha MBP and MBA lines into one, with far less ports, or
- they will keep the MBP line, but substitute TB for FW.
Putting TB into a MBA was no real problem, since it INCREASED the ports. But people are going to scream bloody murder when Apple decides to drop the FW port entirely.
You heard it here folks.
Apple added a bit of I/O to the MBA.
The next MBP revision will probably do away with a built-in optical drive.
They are merging the two product lines.
And I won't be surprised if FW is a casualty.
BTW, it amazes me that these "analysts" get paid so much. There is far more knowledge on this board about future Apple products that in all of those high-paid analysts out there.