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Not convinced it's not Apple's PR department talking up the success.

Why: it's the snowball effect. I don't have an iPhone. I want one, boy do I want one, but I'm not letting my heart rule my head when it comes down to a piss-takingly poor contract.

If Apple PR can convince me that everyone's buying, they'll hope to invoke the herd instinct and get 'me' to buy (i.e. make me feel as if I'm the odd one out).

I reckon the figures are about half what they're saying.

If you're right, it will be easy to determine, since if Apple is lying publicly, those responsible are breaking the law.

So yeah, anything you hear from Apple about sales is true.
 
Doesn't look like the AppleTV has hit targets...

I'd be really curious what the target numbers are for the AppleTV. But with the sales numbers I have heard, Apple has reached a significant percentage of Tivo sales, something like 30 or 40 percent.
 
This story is something else again, (probably just an estimate based on already released figures) and is probably not related to the traitor at the factory, unless Apple shares its sales figures with the manufacturing plant.

Someone at the manufacturing plant should have a rather good idea how many iPhones they are producing, 90%-95% of those should be sold (plus a few that get lost, are stolen, or forgotten in a warehouse, or freebies, or warranty replacements).
 
I beg to disagree. The buisness model that Apple is doing with the iPhone is nothing to cheer for. Paying full price for a locked phone, and having to take a long term contract? All because Apple is very greedy? No thanks, the iPhone is far from an ideal present, in my opinion.
I think the majority of stockholders would disagree with your assessment of Apples's business model and I know no one who wouldn't be thrilled with the gift of an iPhone!
 
They said 10 million in 2008. Not by the end of 2008.
That means any sale up until new years doesn't count towards the goal!

I feel like I'm the only one with somewhat of a decent memory, since I see everyone mess up these facts.



Actually, your memory is not perfect either. What he said was they Apple would capture a 1% market share in 2008 (i.e., 10 million phones). This is the critical point: Market share measured at the end of 2008 includes phones sold in 2007. There was no specific statement that Apple would sell 10 million in 2008 alone. If Apple has 10 million phones in consumer hands as of Dec 31, 2008, Apple will have met its stated goal. Period.

http://www.myitablet.com/complete-t...-conference-and-expo-january-9-2007-23447.php

"Let’s take a look at this market, and how big it is. My clicker’s not working. Oh there it is. So how big is this market, well let’s take a look. [...]

So game consoles. 26 million game consoles were sold in 2006 worldwide, actually a little smaller than you’d think. It’s not such a big market. Digital cameras dwarfed it at 94 million. MP3 players 135 million. And PCs, about 209. Mobile phones, just about a billion last year, worldwide. So what does this tell you? What this tells you is, that 1 percent market share equals 10 million units. This is a giant market. One percent market share, you’re going to sell 10 million phones. And this is exactly what we’re going to try to do in 2008, our first full year in the market, is grab 1 percent market share and go from there. So we’re going to enter a very competitive market, lot of players, we think we’re going to have the best product in the world, and we’re going to go for it and see if we can get 1 percent market share, 10 million units in 2008, and go from there."
 
If Apple could drop the iPhone price further or allow operator subsidy then I think sales would go through the roof more then they have.

I've opted for a Nokia E61 on O2 in the meantime as I cannot justify the £269 for the handset. I also get the same voice and data for £22 per month on that rather the £35 they want with the iPhone.

Roll on the 5 million though, the more they sell the bigger support base from 3rd party suppliers the SDK will get when it launches.
 
Actually, your memory is not perfect either. What he said was they Apple would capture a 1% market share in 2008 (i.e., 10 million phones). This is the critical point: Market share measured at the end of 2008 includes phones sold in 2007. There was no specific statement that Apple would sell 10 million in 2008 alone. If Apple has 10 million phones in consumer hands as of Dec 31, 2008, Apple will have met its stated goal. Period.

One percent market share, you’re going to sell 10 million phones. And this is exactly what we’re going to try to do in 2008, our first full year in the market, is grab 1 percent market share and go from there.

Sounds like the quote you posted supports the other argument, and opposes yours.

That said, I think it will be easy for Apple to sell 10 million phones in 2008. Every month that passes, a large chuck of Verizon and Tmobile users' contracts expire, making them eligible to switch over. Plus Apple will lower prices in Europe and launch the phone worldwide in 2008, with 3G features and more memory. 10 million will be easy.
 
Sounds like the quote you posted supports the other argument, and opposes yours.

No, he's right. Steve clearly meant that they wanted to get 1% by end of 2008--even if he did say it a bit odd it the excerpt for the quote you posted.

steve said:
One percent market share, you’re going to sell 10 million phones. And this is exactly what we’re going to try to do in 2008, our first full year in the market, is grab 1 percent market share and go from there.

Notice he is saying, in the first sentence, that 10 mil is 1%. the second he is saying he wants to get 1% market share in 2008.
 
This is ridiculous... did your guys graduate high school or what?

1% of 1 billion is 10 million. For every billion handsets sold, Apple needs to sell 10 million iPhones to reach 1% marketshare.

That 1 billion handset number is per annum, so that's the time frame in which Apple must sell 10 million iPhones.

If you include iPhones sold between June 29 and Dec 31 2007, you'd have to include all other handsets sold during that time to arrive at the marketshare ratio.
 
If you include iPhones sold between June 29 and Dec 31 2007, you'd have to include all other handsets sold during that time to arrive at the marketshare ratio.

You're right if he meant that it was sales market share - not contracted market share (or some other metric).
 
This is ridiculous... did your guys graduate high school or what?

1% of 1 billion is 10 million. For every billion handsets sold, Apple needs to sell 10 million iPhones to reach 1% marketshare.

That 1 billion handset number is per annum, so that's the time frame in which Apple must sell 10 million iPhones.

If you include iPhones sold between June 29 and Dec 31 2007, you'd have to include all other handsets sold during that time to arrive at the marketshare ratio.

ah, you are right. I hate how people use the term market share. In that case it really isn't 1%, but allot less--only 1% of new units. Also, I don't know why apple is doing it in worldwide market share anyway--why not have goals for each market they enter?

You're right if he meant that it was sales market share - not contracted market share (or some other metric).

he did, look at the quote from the keynote higher on this page.
 
I acknowledge that the Bay Area is not representative. That said, the iPhone is all over the place where I live. Virtually every mother at my son's school has one and a good number of the girls from 6th to 8th grades. I work in San Francisco, and I see quite a few while walking around town, mostly identified by the mic on the headphone set.
 
....That 1 billion handset number is per annum, so that's the time frame in which Apple must sell 10 million iPhones....

I'm sure they will be very successful. But they'll be more successful if the prices for the contracts are a lot better.

Unlike buying an iPod where the only ongoing cost is iTunes store tax, these phones are only available on contract, and with awful terms. Desirable or not; the 'majority' of people in their target 'cool' market use pay-as-you-go.

People who use phones with contracts will realise that the costs are outrageous and that the, lets use for an example, N95 is constantly being compared with the iPhone (by Nokia's PR department!) and is available for a fraction of the cost.

They'll also be a lot more successful when the SDK's available, so there'll be masses of add-on applications.

And finally, they'll be a lot more successful when it's available in 3G -- you can't use a iPhone in Japan until it is 3G. EDGE support is pretty poor in most countries.

Yep, iPhone version 2 will be a roaring success. More so than the trailblazing version 1.
 
No, he's right. Steve clearly meant that they wanted to get 1% by end of 2008--even if he did say it a bit odd it the excerpt for the quote you posted.

CLEARLY that's what he meant. lol... I wish I could read minds as well as you can!

And this is exactly what we’re going to try to do in 2008

Notice he is saying, in the first sentence, that 10 mil is 1%. the second he is saying he wants to get 1% market share in 2008.

Yeah I noticed. And um, "I don't think that word means what you think it means." Let's see - 1 billion cell phones per year, 10 million iPhone sales in a year and a half. See the problem?
 
This blurb is wrong...

Apple's stated goal is selling 10 million iPhones IN 2008. Meaning by the end of 2008 they'll have sold more than 10 million, and they'll reach the 10 million point at some time in the middle of the year.

This has been misreported quite a bit, but the statement is right there from Jobs himself, he says it in at least two of the event videos online.

10 million IN 2008.

Here Jobs again makes reference to selling 10 million in the first calendar year (which is the year 2008).

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/techinvestor/corporatenews/2007-06-28-jobs-stephenson-qa_N.htm

He also said it again in the conference call on October 22 of this year - "10 million IN 2008". Not 10 million by the end of 2008. The exact quote is "I would reiterate that we're very confident with shipping ten million in the calendar year of next year". It's just after the 27 minute mark of that audio stream, check it if you don't believe me.
 
Quite frankly this is arguing over semantics; whether it's 10 million in 12 months or 18 months doesn't really matter (unless you're an Apple salesman or Steve).

I wonder what the figures are for an iPod touch? I bet these will be 10M this year, particularly over this Christmas period.

Even if it's 2 million, that's one hell of a lot more than a... what's it called... oh yes... a Zune:)

Just imagine the disappointment on the face of the kids who's granny bought them a Zune and not an iPod for Christmas! It makes the thought of horrid coloured jumpers look quite nice in comparison.


I wonder if Apple are ever going to do the iGame console? Or will this be the new name for the Mac Mini?
 
No way in hell they will sell that many by January Mac World. The source of this is a fantasy rumor site. Someone just wants to see this get out and steal any thunder during Macworld when the true number is announced - somewhere around 2-2.5 million. Why would Apple BUILD 4 million iPhones for sale in 3 months when they sold only 1 million in the first 3? The European markets are much smaller than the US market. The die-hards already have their phones. Only gift-giving will up the normal sales rate a bit for the rest of the market.
 
They clearly had internal targets, and it doesn't look like the product has done nearly as well as Apple hoped...

Thanks a lot. Your words just made my brain bleed!

How can we know what Apple had hoped if we don't know the target (internal or external)???

What we do know is Steve called the release a hobby. Meaning they want to gauge interest and see what features might be added in a future version. In which case the actual number sold wouldn't be an issue.
 
I thin SJ meant that sometime by the end of 2008 he would see the iphone achieve a 1% market share, not sell 10 million iPhones in 2008. Besides does Apple operate on a fiscal year for accounting or?? I doubt he was referring to calendar year sales for 2008.
 
It won't matter. They will pass 10 million sooner than anyone thought or said. ;)
 
You might just have re-opened Pandora's Box there...

Agreed. Dunno if the Mac Mini can be price a whole lot cheaper than it is, seeing as a $600 PS3 didn't sell all that well. Plus what "gimmick" can Apple bring to the table to get an audience (since most are buying the Wii)?
 
There appears to be four major "camps" out there...

1. The other phone manufacturers who are scares sh8less by the iPhone and have done everything to rubbish it in the media - aided by the media who think stories of massive failure make better copy. The iPhone can't live up to some of the hype - but it still is a very nice device from a technical standpoint.

2. The people with the heavy iPhone envy who - because they personally can't have an iPhone for one reason or other - have to talk it down any way they can.

3. People who own iPhones - and like it.

4. Normal people. You know the type. The people who are NOT reading this topic. :D

I can't talk wit certainty about the rest of Europe, but in the UK the launch was badly timed if Apple wanted to see lots of people running out to get it in November. With Christmas just around the corner a lot of people would be happy to wait and see if an iPhone shows up in their stocking :). It is going to be very interesting to see what the numbers shake out like in January.

Another factor that skews the numbers is the reports of how many unlocked phones have been sold, or how many have not been activated. I have a suspicion that a lot of these are destined for the hands of people who are living in areas where the iPhone is not yet available. Just look at how many people on these forums had a cracked US phone in the UK before the official launch...
 
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