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Good post. I agree with much of what you say here.

In regards to profits, it is important, especially as these companies get larger and larger.

A company like Apple will not dedicate resource to a project or product if it doesn't think it will generate enough profit to matter. Product like the mythical iPhoneSE2 would likely make a profit, however, the market is likely to be so small as to not warrant any attention from Apple, much to the dismay of consumers that want a smaller iPhone.

If a product or service does not project to make acceptable profits, Apple won't do it. Unless there are other strategic reasons other than profit that fall into the win column for a particular product.

Look at the MacPro (and the Mac in general) and Pro software. Too small of a market for Apple to care about, so they're letting it whither on the vine.

Switching topics. About marketshare. I agree, it's important, but mostly in the context of growing (or at least maintaining) an active user base. While not a good sign, a shrinking market share isn't necessarily a big deal ... as long as some of these reasons are true.

1. Folks that aren't buying iPhones are just holding onto their current iPhones. This is neutral to the active user base.
2. iPhone unit sales are increasing, just not as much as the overall market. This would imply a growing user base ... also, it's now shown that iPhone sales have dropped this last quarter.
3. Folks are actively switching from Android to iPhone at the same rate that iPhone users are holding off on upgrading. This would be neutral for increasing market share, but positive for growing the base.

One last point. Market share is very fickle because it's generally measured on a quarter-by-quarter basis. Sometimes, it's measured on a month-to-month basis. So a drop in market share this quarter can easily be offset by a growth in market share the following quarter. Active user base takes much longer to affect.

Don't disagree with anything you've said :)

there's no real "rule" regarding these metrics and numbers. Thats why we have analysts whose job is to read and comprehend and analyse these things to take them into overall context of the market.

And overall, right now, a single quarter a trend doesn't make. Just us armchair analysts looking at the numbers, trends, histories and history of other companies who have been in similar scenarios to try and predict where the trends may be directed.

Every CEO needs to be able to balance all of the above. the biggest myth that the 21st century has perpetuated in our culture is that the CEO's job is to do nothing but maximize profit no matter what. I contend that doing so is a losing game for long term growth and stability as constant pumping up of margins can only go so far on the pricing side (as supply demand elasticity and market dictates the range of prices acceptable). So when you run out of pricing as a lever, you're forced to reduce costs to maintain the "maximization of profits above all else". Historically throughout the free market, there's a history of companies who have traded short term profit at the expense of market share for massive short term returns. Typically, the end result is that the companies cutting of costs ends up burning through good will of the user base and the market share declines are a potential indicator of that. Especially in a market that is not growing.

So I contend that a CEO's job is NOT to maximize profit. That's the CFO's job to recommend the course of actions required to maximize profit. It's the CEO's job to weight that recommendation and steer the company appropriately taking into consideration not only the CFO's maximization recommendations, but every other C level executives directives on how to maintain long term business strategy.
 
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'They aren't switching to android'..i disagree with this. I moved to Apple from android in 2017 (with iPhone 8 plus), but since 2017 i saw many of my friends from office switched to android from apple. they Blame it on price.

In the process, did they upgrade? Did the new phone gain them new features or performance? The reason I ask, is that they could have repurchased the same iPhone if they needed to replace one. But I understand how that would feel... paying twice for the same experience, even if that experience was satisfactory.

I've read my share of switch testimonies. When iPhone users switch to an Android phone, most seldom cite cost as the main motivation. In fact, they often switch to handsets that are equally expensive. They consider them better value when the specs are better than a comparable iPhone.

Most testimonies cite boredom as a motivation. Phone heads, in particular, need new embellishments to make the same activities seem fresh again. It's not unheard of that someone will jump back-and-forth between iPhones and Android phones to maintain that dopamine flow.
 
In the process, did they upgrade? Did the new phone gain them new features or performance? The reason I ask, is that they could have repurchased the same iPhone if they needed to replace one. But I understand how that would feel... paying twice for the same experience, even if that experience was satisfactory.

I've read my share of switch testimonies. When iPhone users switch to an Android phone, most seldom cite cost as the main motivation. In fact, they often switch to handsets that are equally expensive. They consider them better value when the specs are better than a comparable iPhone.

Most testimonies cite boredom as a motivation. Phone heads, in particular, need new embellishments to make the same activities seem fresh again. It's not unheard of that someone will jump back-and-forth between iPhones and Android phones to maintain that dopamine flow.


When they do upgrade, they overwhelmingly stay with iPhones... The ecosystem is important to iOS users, unlike Android.
 
Not entirely accurate.

Apple Music is cross platform.

iCloud is available for Mac and Windows.

iTunes is cross platform (although the impact of iTunes is likely minimal at this point).

The upcoming TV service will almost assuredly be cross platform.
I don't use Apple Music (I don't any of them) so I won't go into that besides seeing that the app is not that greatly rated.

iCloud is available on Windows just for the same reason iTunes was also available. There are way more iOS users than Mac users and therefore there is a very large amount of Windows/iOS users and iCloud is really just a backup service for iOS users so not provide a Windows client would be severely limiting.

iTunes was there so that Windows users could buy and use iPods. It sucked, it sucks and will probably suck on Windows. If people switched to Apple based on iTunes, Apple would still be a niche manufacturer. Fortunately they make other stuff that not only doesn't suck but indeed is awesome.

The TV deals on the other hand seem to indicate some real effort on true cross platform services.
 
I don't use Apple Music (I don't any of them) so I won't go into that besides seeing that the app is not that greatly rated.

iCloud is available on Windows just for the same reason iTunes was also available. There are way more iOS users than Mac users and therefore there is a very large amount of Windows/iOS users and iCloud is really just a backup service for iOS users so not provide a Windows client would be severely limiting.

iTunes was there so that Windows users could buy and use iPods. It sucked, it sucks and will probably suck on Windows. If people switched to Apple based on iTunes, Apple would still be a niche manufacturer. Fortunately they make other stuff that not only doesn't suck but indeed is awesome.

The TV deals on the other hand seem to indicate some real effort on true cross platform services.

iTunes has obviously evolved since you once (or maybe never) used it... It is not the crap it once was. In fact, it is actually extremely good quality.
 
I don't use Apple Music (I don't any of them) so I won't go into that besides seeing that the app is not that greatly rated.

iCloud is available on Windows just for the same reason iTunes was also available. There are way more iOS users than Mac users and therefore there is a very large amount of Windows/iOS users and iCloud is really just a backup service for iOS users so not provide a Windows client would be severely limiting.

iTunes was there so that Windows users could buy and use iPods. It sucked, it sucks and will probably suck on Windows. If people switched to Apple based on iTunes, Apple would still be a niche manufacturer. Fortunately they make other stuff that not only doesn't suck but indeed is awesome.

The TV deals on the other hand seem to indicate some real effort on true cross platform services.
I was replying to a poster who said that all of Apple's services are only availble for iOS and designed to tie users into the ecosystem

Whether you find Apple's services to be good or bad, it doesn't change the fact that millions of subscribers using non-Apple platforms exist.
 
I was replying to a poster who said that all of Apple's services are only availble for iOS and designed to tie users into the ecosystem

Whether you find Apple's services to be good or bad, it doesn't change the fact that millions of subscribers using non-Apple platforms exist.
That also doesn't change the fact that Apple services are still designed for Apple users and their availability outside Apple's ecosystem is there to serve those exact Apple users when Apple recognizes that not serving them outside Apple's offerings would hurt Apple even them more.

There is nothing wrong with this approach in fact some people would probably prefer that Apple kept to itself. But you can't pretend at the same time you are some sort of global service provider. Netflix, Spotify, Amazon, Google, yes, Apple, no.
 
Even if those services are real services, they are linked to the iPhone.
They haven't created anything universal, like Netflix or Dropbox. All they are doing
is locking the iPhone users to their iCloud (awful BTW) or Apple Pay.
No iPhones - no services.
Seeing those as some kind of "bright future" for Apple is very naive.
What are you talking about? The base of iPhone is not shrinking. Again, a contraction in unit sales in a given quarter still allows the user base to grow. Those metrics are not moving together.

"Linked to iPhone" is like saying Google is linked to search or Exxon is linked to oil. Of course they are. But iPhone is strong as hell and not going anywhere. You think iOS people are going to Android in droves? The iPhone retention rate is 90% according to Apple. Are they lying? Until there is a PRODUCT that is significantly better than iPhone (like what happened to Blackberry) Apple will continue to dominate. Android is competing against themselves for the most part.

What you're doing is basically saying eventually iPhone will die and Apple will die. How long do you think 900M will take to go to anything significantly less? Whether they sell 215M like the last 3 years, or even 180M (down) this year, the installed base is assured to increase. Those 180M new iPhones will be active for sure and the upgraders are either new to the platform or will trade their iPhone in and it's sold on the secondary market.

I don't see the path in the near term for iPhone utilization to go down or any iOS device for that matter.

That's why (get ready for a fact) the installed based grew 100M in 12 months.

Netflix is a great service, but they don't even have anything proprietary except their original content, which some studies show only accounts for 20% of their viewership. They are going to get competition galore, starting with Disney and eventually Apple too. Netflix essentially gives you a basket of licensed content for a monthly price. Not very impressive or innovative. All that takes is money, and Netflix is burning money trying to do it along with creating their own original content. Disney is going to hurt Netflix, bad...because Disney owns so much A+ content and has over 10X the earning power.

If you think the Netflix service is somehow superior, buy the stock. It trades at 125X earnings and Apple trades at 12X earnings. Good luck. Hilarious you think Netflix is some superior service to the services Apple can offer with iPhone. If I'm Netflix, I'm really scared. The media game is about money and that's all Apple has. Plus they have 1.4B devices with screens. Apple is going after Netflix.
 
When they do upgrade, they overwhelmingly stay with iPhones... The ecosystem is important to iOS users, unlike Android.

Reality is, most people stick with what the OS they know when they upgrade. Unsurprisingly, there's a lot of switching among phone brands within the Android ecosphere. Also interesting, is that a larger number of switchers switch from Android to Apple. However, the larger percentage of switchers is iPhone users switching to Android handsets. For example, 2 million Android users might switch to Apple while only 1 million iPhone users switched to Android. However, 1 million iPhones users is a larger percent of Apple's customer base than 2 million of Android's.

Ecosystem is important to both camps. And both have them. Indeed, Android has several—one at the Android level; some at the brand level. Samsung, for example, has the same portfolio of connected products as Apple. Google is making great strides with its own ecosystem of hardware and services. In fact, Google is on the verge of divorcing Android and replacing it with Fuchsia OS, a singular OS that will work with laptops, tablets, phones, watches, and IoT appliances.
 
What do you suggest they do? They can't only sell iPhones forever and the Mac might as well die it represents minuscule profits and it isn't as good at driving services as an iPad or iPhone or watch. If these things ride the coat tails it means they are attached to each other and all parts are working in unison and congruent with in the ecosystem.

The only reason the Mac represents miniscule profits is because Apple doesn't invest in it and the hardware offerings are laughably out of date. Many of us were drawn to Apple by the computers. Investing in new designs, and most importantly, powerful designs that don't get thermally throttled, would keep people in the Apple orbit and draw in new customers.

The ecosystem is very fragile once you realize that moving outside of it for any part of your computing life (let's say because you can't buy an Apple phone with a headphone jack) means that the rest of the ecosystem has much much less value for you.
 
Hmmmm, lets see... Apple Music for Android... There is a Start.... Samsung & LG TV's with built in iTunes... Apple is definitely integrating with other manufacturers... You need to keep up!
Apple Music on Android is inferior to Spotify on Android. I don't know why any Android user would choose Apple Music over Spotify. I only used it as it was free for 6 months with my latest phone contract.
 
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The second table in IDC report, that wasn't included in the MacRumors story, is actually more relevant. It show volume across the whole of 2018, not just Q4
View attachment 819093
Apple and Samsung were quite close in sales in 18Q4, but Samsung were significantly ahead of Apple and all other companies in overall 2018 shipments. Apple's Q4 is always much better than their Q1, Q2 and Q3, as Q4 is not only the holiday quarter but also the quarter the new iPhones are released. Samsung's phone sales are spread more evenly

Apple Q4: 18.2%
Apple 18: 14.9%
Samsung Q4: 18.7%
Samsung 18: 20.8%


Good example about how bias can easily slip into news reporting sites like these. It's easy to cherry pick your data to make things appear more towards your view than reality has it. I wish MacRumors was more upfront about this - the points you make about Apple's Q4 being their strongest is one that should be talked about in the original article.
 
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So let me see, (1) they stopped selling the $400 SE (2) they introduced an even more expensive $1100 phone with ludicrous storage upgrade tiers all the way up to $1450. Everybody agrees ASP went up this Q compared to a year ago.

They did not stop selling the iPhone SE og iPhone 6s. They were still available in many places in the world. And still are.
 
What services exactly? I keep hearing about those "services" and all it is is some creative accounting.

Apple considers Google payment for being the first search engine on the iPhone as "services"
(it's a very high fee, a few Billion USD). Or charging every developer a 30% cut of every app sold -
services!

It's scary how little actual REAL value there is here.

Services were $10+ billions last quarter and is a bigger business for Apple than iPad or Mac.

It consists of such things as App Store, Mac App Store, iTunes Store, Apple TV Store, iBooks Store, Apple Music, AppleCare, Apple Pay, iCloud Drive, iCloud Photo Library, Family Sharing, Find My iPhone, Find My Friends, Notes, iCloud Keychain, iCloud Backup.
 
Yeah, as long as they have customers like you.

Yeah I like to buy the best most complete products. Hense why millions and millions do the same

If the quality wasn’t there I wouldn’t buy them. If the comp had comparable devices that worked as well then I wouldn’t buy apple products

The comp only has good phones when it comes to tablets and smart watches and wireless buds the rest are way behind
 
smartphonemarketshareidcq418-800x660.jpg

Just noticed that this chart is wrong. The bottom legend has Huawei and Apple backwards. Apple should be the medium blue and Huawei is the light blue. Samsung is the dark blue.
 
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How is it even relevant? Apples to oranges LOL
It's not gonna stop them from dominating the Chinese market in terms of sales.
[doublepost=1548967202][/doublepost]
Huawei revenue is 109 billions in all 2018.
Apple revenue is 84 billions in just a quarter...
We're talking about units sold, not their revenue. Reread the article!
 
Growth in active device base of 100M in 12 months and a 90% iPhone retention rate for iPhone disclosed by Apple during the earnings call.
[doublepost=1548944575][/doublepost]
The reason you keep hearing about them is because they are growing at 20%, make 63% GM, and were just $10.9B in 90 days.

It doesn’t really matter if you think they are services or not. It’s money and it’s growing...fast. I’m not going to defend how and why all the services are counted. It’s irrelevant and you won’t listen anyway.

Apple can make the entire iPhone experience a service eventually. The possibilities are endless.
What happened to 10%?
[doublepost=1548972671][/doublepost]
In the process, did they upgrade? Did the new phone gain them new features or performance? The reason I ask, is that they could have repurchased the same iPhone if they needed to replace one. But I understand how that would feel... paying twice for the same experience, even if that experience was satisfactory.

I've read my share of switch testimonies. When iPhone users switch to an Android phone, most seldom cite cost as the main motivation. In fact, they often switch to handsets that are equally expensive. They consider them better value when the specs are better than a comparable iPhone.

Most testimonies cite boredom as a motivation. Phone heads, in particular, need new embellishments to make the same activities seem fresh again. It's not unheard of that someone will jump back-and-forth between iPhones and Android phones to maintain that dopamine flow.
Overall they are happy. They got equally performing phone for fraction of cost. Not every body wants full power of every device. Most of them are normal day to day users.
 
Products with a much lower margin also provide value. Just because you enjoy a product does not mean said company is not over-charging you.

Fair point, but I find the value of those lower-priced products to be less. If I did not have an iPhone XS Max, I would probably have a Google Pixel 3 XL which admittedly would be a bit cheaper, but also would have half the RAM.

YMMV.


Take it away, Steve: “When you have a monopoly market share, the sales and marketing people end up running the companies. The product people get driven out of decision making, and the companies forget what it means to make great products. The genius that brought them to this monopolistic position gets rotted out by people who have no conception of a good product vs a bad product”

Tim came from Operations, not Marketing. Under Steve his focus was how much it cost to produce an iPhone so it could be sold at retail, not how much it sold for at retail.

Of course, now as CEO he has the final say in what an iPhone (or any other Apple product) costs are retail (MSRP). But his decisions, IMO, are being driven from an Operations side - newer iPhones cost more to build so to maintain the same margin, they must therefore cost more to purchase at retail.

This is doubly so because Apple has anything but a "monopoly share" of the smartphone market outside the top end, and well they have owned that segment for the past decade - including back when Steve was setting the prices. ;)
 
Are we forgetting that Apple’s installed user base continues to grow, even though they didn’t sell as many phones?

If market share continues to decline then eventually the installed base will also decline, as there won't be enough new devices to replace old, worn-out ones.

A shrinking user base would also be bad news for developers.
 
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If market share continues to decline then eventually the installed base will also decline, as there won't be enough new devices to replace old, worn-out ones.

A shrinking user base would also be bad news for developers.
It’s not about market share, it’s about the installed base of users. Market share, IMO, is a meaningless metric for Apple. Their services revenue is growing, new iPhone sales are healthy. Apple is not competing in the sub-100 dollar phone market.
 
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If market share continues to decline then eventually the installed base will also decline, as there won't be enough new devices to replace old, worn-out ones.

A shrinking user base would also be bad news for developers.
There is no link at all. You can have declining market share because OEMs continue to sell android smartphones at a faster rate than Apple sells iPhones, and still have a growing installed base because people are still buying iPhones, and selling older iPhones to help fund the purchase of these newer iPhones.

People need to stop thinking in terms of absolute market share, and start consider effective usage share. What good is having so many android smartphones out in the wild, if the majority of them are low-end devices, and the users are not interested in purchasing additional accessories such as smartwatches, or spend on apps?

Apple has more than enough users to sustain a thriving ecosystem at this point.
 
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