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Apple Vision Pro Unlikely to Hit 500,000 Sales This Year, Says IDC
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Enterprise, especially point-of-sale, keeps the Mini going. And they couldn't care less about age or specs.
Yet a profitable market that has needs and upgrades often
Like what are we doing here?
Maddening..
Is Apple just going to get down to ONLY serving TURBO HUGE MEGA MARKETS?
They will be down to about 2 form factors of 2 products eventually if that's all they are going to ever keep serving
If they'd stop spending tens of BILLIONS buying back their own stock over and over again, maybe they could spend a few shekels continuing to serve all the varying customers they have/had
At some point, actually retaining customers will be an issue with this trajectory
Maybe when's leaving Sun Valley in a couple days, Tim could pop up into the cockpit of his Gulfstream and talk to his pilots about iPad Minis
What a shocker! People, amid a crappy economy, don't wanna spend a fortune for a shiny overpriced gadget full of 1st generation challenges that offers absolutely nothing essential to their daily workflow and will be shelved 15 days after purchase. Who would have thought!
Tim Cook, that's who. Several people inside Apple tried to talk him out of it.
Sure. Because the price and the fact it goes on your face are irrelevant.
What do you mean? It isn't Apple causing the problem if that's what you mean. Apple won't aggressively update a product that doesn't do well after a new version is launched. It's not a chicken/egg scenario. It has to do well on its own in order for Apple to take it more seriously. I think you believe if Apple updated it more often that it would sell better, but it's not like Apple never updates it. They do. It's up to generation 6. But those generations don't do well enough to justify Apple devoting resources to it more than once every couple years.
The price and the fact that it goes on my face were relevant to me.
The Price: Because Apple chose to build a high-quality device that would immerse me in a high-fidelity environment better than other options available, thus costing more money, was one of the only reasons the AVP caught my attention. Your mileage may vary, of course.
On My Face: My primary use case is to get me into a state of flow, wherein I'm completely immersed in an alternate state of being. Has proven extremely beneficial to my work. It needs to fool me, visually, into getting into that mindset. So, on my face is the only option. Your mileage may vary.
This product isn't for you, as you've demonstrated. But that says nothing about the market that exists for this product and technology.
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...what?
The people who "use AVP everyday" are the short list of people who, after first being willing to pay $3,500+, have been able to put up with it. These are not subjective complaints, they are realities of the design. The product is heavy and uncomfortable to wear for more than 30-40 minutes at a time (which is fortunate considering the battery doesn't last much longer). It isolates you completely from the world around you, which is awkward. It has video passthrough, which is nausea-inducing due to latency and lighting problems. It runs iPad apps which are already extremely limited in functionality, which is further reduced by having the input method be eye tracking and air gestures. It has next to no native apps, with developer adoption non-existent and many openly hostile to the platform.
These are not first generation product problems, these are problems that are inherent to the design that $2,000 worth of technology and 5+ years of R&D couldn't overcome.
I don't just "put up with it." The AVP puts me into a state of productivity for the work I do unlike any device I've ever used. I guess I "put up with it" like I put up with the helmet I use when I ride my motorcycle or the bulky, heavy and hot suit I wear on long-distance motorcycle trips (said helmet and suit cost me about the same as the base model AVP). Your insistence that because it isn't something you need or want doesn't mean the product doesn't have value.
I routinely wear my AVP for 3-4 hours at a time. No pain involved; or at least none worth mentioning in comparison to the benefit I receive. Again, much like the helmet and suit I wear on my motorcycle. And the battery is such a non-issue that is only ever mentioned by people who have no use for the AVP and have thus not spent any significant time with it.
This isolation is central to my use case for the device. That you don't have that need says nothing about those of us who do and therefore find value in the AVP.
I've never once felt any nausea using the AVP. What length of time have you used it to make this statement?
Perhaps limited in funcionality for YOU. For me, there's no tool that does what the AVP does for me.
You don't need it or want it. That's the end of what you can contribute to the discussion. That you seemingly don't allow that there are others who feel differently, who have different needs, is a problem with your entire point.
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Return rates have been standard ~1% for AVP. Why is this a factor in your estimation?
Actually my comments have gone directly to those points. As far as your personal case? Good for you. You’re obviously the exception, not the rule.
The point is that you keep arguing as though this product is meant for the masses. Right now it is clearly not. And most of your arguments become moot when you concede there is a market that exists for the product. Such as you've now "allowed" that it might be good for me. Thanks for your allowance; but your viewpoint isn't the definitive viewpoint in this discussion. The only viewpoint that matters are those who need and find value in the product. You've tried to turn your viewpoint into some gods-eye-view of the AVP.
Above, in response to another post, I mentioned the motorcycle helmet and suit I bought and wear for long motorcycle trips. Both are hot, uncomfortable and heavy. They cost more than the base model AVP. I'm confident that neither the suit or the helmet sell in quantities of 400,000 per year. And yet they are considered extremely successful in the motorcycle world. Your arguments about size, price and comfort only matter to those who don't have a need for the device for which those issues become minor.
Your milage may vary. In everything in life. You don't have a privileged view of the AVP. You have your own very narrow and subjective view of it. It doesn't work for you. Fine. I'm not trying to convince you that you need it. You clearly don't.
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At this point after its release, even though it was early days, it was clear the iPhone was going to be a big hit.
Not that the iPhone is a fair comparison, most things don’t do that well. But I feel like Apple themselves set up the comparison.
My points are very clearly articulated and on the page for anyone to read. Of course the device is intended to be mainstream. All you have to do is look at what Apple says about it. How they designed it. What they suggest to use it for. The idea that it was intended only as a niche product that would move very low volume is dubious given those facts.
And to add: I NEVER claimed to have a “privileged” or “god’s eye view of AVP.” I’m kindly asking you not to post unwarranted personal insults like that
Nothing I've stated is a personal attack. I'm talking about the fallacy of argument, prevalent in this and every other thread, that suggests that if YOU don't like it or need it, nobody will like it or need it.
At $3500, Apple clearly understood this wouldn't be for the masses. So going on and on and on about the reasons you don't like it says exactly zero about anyone else and what they may or may not need or want. It's a tedious and pointless argument.
There are those of us who like and find value in the AVP. There's simply no argument against that.
It was a tongue-in-cheek post. But are you citing news from end of February? None of it actual numbers disclosed by Apple. And since Apple Retail is the only one selling, no one knows unless Apple discloses (which they wont). A lot of time has passed and a lot more countries have just started taking orders. And crackgate has just begun.
That is a false characterization of what I wrote.
According to Apple, it is.
I haven’t done any such thing.
Nifty. I haven’t disputed it.
It’s how I’ve consistently interpreted your many postings on the topic.
Do you have a source for this statement?
You’re wrong and it’s insulting.
Every official statement Apple has made about it.
It feels to me like people are once again overestimating the short term impact of a product while simultaneously underestimating what will happen in the long term (to quote Bill Gates loosely).
Let's say the economy is not doing well. Said downturn is not going to last forever. Things will pick up, a person's economic status can turn around, the Vision Pro will continue to be iterated on and improved, and even if you are not in the market for one today, you could still end up picking V2 or V3 up one day in the future.
To use myself as an example, I am not rich by any means. The AVP (plus everything) is maybe a little under my monthly salary (take home pay). I have enough savings in the bank to maybe go 10-15 years without working? I would definitely feel the pinch were I to splurge on the AVP, but it wouldn't break the bank, and let's be honest - we have seen people spend way more on an overseas trip.
Unlike Google, I don't see the AVP going anywhere. I am confident that Apple is in this for the long run and for now, it will be interesting to sit back and watch how this product category continues to develop over the next couple of years.