Apple Vision Pro Unlikely to Hit 500,000 Sales This Year, Says IDC

[Chungry]

I don't just "put up with it." The AVP puts me into a state of productivity for the work I do unlike any device I've ever used. I guess I "put up with it" like I put up with the helmet I use when I ride my motorcycle or the bulky, heavy and hot suit I wear on long-distance motorcycle trips (said helmet and suit cost me about the same as the base model AVP). Your insistence that because it isn't something you need or want doesn't mean the product doesn't have value.


I routinely wear my AVP for 3-4 hours at a time. No pain involved; or at least none worth mentioning in comparison to the benefit I receive. Again, much like the helmet and suit I wear on my motorcycle. And the battery is such a non-issue that is only ever mentioned by people who have no use for the AVP and have thus not spent any significant time with it.


This isolation is central to my use case for the device. That you don't have that need says nothing about those of us who do and therefore find value in the AVP.


I've never once felt any nausea using the AVP. What length of time have you used it to make this statement?


Perhaps limited in funcionality for YOU. For me, there's no tool that does what the AVP does for me.


You don't need it or want it. That's the end of what you can contribute to the discussion. That you seemingly don't allow that there are others who feel differently, who have different needs, is a problem with your entire point.

Timo… Tim is that you?!

But seriously we’ve got over a dozen of these devices and I just showed this to some of the folks in our dev team since we’re crunching tonight. I think nearly everyone takes issue with your point on productivity. “Seems unlikely” and “I’d challenge that statement for specifics” are what they floated back when I shared the screenshot of your response. The fit is subjective but I mean all the other stuff falls squarely in the category of you do you. Specifically no one on the team will argue about its chops for consuming content. But getting real work done and (in our case) making enterprise productivity apps, well therein lies the rub. The dev tools are inadequate compared to their sibling platforms. I think it’s a total cheat and an admission the unit is rudderless that they had to bake in a Mac escape hatch to offer some semblance of productivity. It can’t stand on its own and all we have are promises of what it may some day be capable of. To be clear I want it to succeed but it’s disingenuous to claim at this point that anyone is getting serious work done. This is like an immersive video iPod with apps but it’s not for coding, editing, office tasks or even managing files in thoughtful ways.

Edit: on Tim’s interview about using it daily, I’ll just respond by quoting George Costanza: “it’s not a lie if you believe it”

 

[Timo_Existencia]

Timo… Tim is that you?!

But seriously we’ve got over a dozen of these devices and I just showed this to some of the folks in our dev team since we’re crunching tonight. I think nearly everyone takes issue with your point on productivity. “Seems unlikely” and “I’d challenge that statement for specifics” are what they floated back when I shared the screenshot of your response. The fit is subjective but I mean all the other stuff falls squarely in the category of you do you. Specifically no one on the team will argue about its chops for consuming content. But getting real work done and (in our case) making enterprise productivity apps, well therein lies the rub. The dev tools are inadequate compared to their sibling platforms. I think it’s a total cheat and an admission the unit is rudderless that they had to bake in a Mac escape hatch to offer some semblance of productivity. It can’t stand on its own and all we have are promises of what it may some day be capable of. To be clear I want it to succeed but it’s disingenuous to claim at this point that anyone is getting serious work done. This is like an immersive video iPod with apps but it’s not for coding, editing, office tasks or even managing files in thoughtful ways.

Edit: on Tim’s interview about using it daily, I’ll just respond by quoting George Costanza: “it’s not a lie if you believe it”

And what is the use case you think I’m talking about? Even if you don’t understand my use case specifically, as developers, you should. Isolation, in a world overrun with distractions, is a use case you should understand.reach beyond the world you see.

 

[Chungry]

And what is the use case you think I’m talking about? Even if you don’t understand my use case specifically, as developers, you should. Isolation, in a world overrun with distractions, is a use case you should understand.reach beyond the world you see.

We understand the need to push distractions out and find time to focus, sure. But there’s not much on offer for being productive in this new environment/paradigm (yet).

 

[HDFan]

I don't see how Apple maintains its super-fat margin

The margins on the VP is probably quite small, with ~$1600 component cost. If you include development costs there may be virtually no margin at all.

Watching Dune 2 with a high end VR headset must be pretty epic.

Yes it was.

Has anyone had any real experience with the virtual desktop?

Yes. Works quite well.

But the good thing is that we may get the iMax version to watch on the AVP iMax App.

Don't see it there yet. If only the app allowed purchases and not just rentals.

I'm curious about that content. Is it limited to streaming from Apples own store?

No. There is a lot of streaming content from multiple commercial platforms. 3D commercial sources only from Disney and the Apple store right now. Many other streaming content sources such as that produced by Hugh Ho.

I'm surprised they didn't also buy, develop & integrate analytical video software to give the worlds existing videos resolution & depth effects so users can convert their own existing media

Wondering if it will come. Conversion of photos to 3D is now here. There are Youtube videos for doing 3D video conversions. Haven't tried.

Except that virtually all of the reporting coming out of Apple is negative.

Sources? All I've seen from Apple are the standard positive marketing phrases.

You claimed that the bottleneck was production constraints. That isn’t accurate.

No one besides Apple really knows the real restraints. The Sony rumors certainly seem to be plausible.

They revised their projected sales figures shortly AFTER the product release and now it appears they won’t even meet that figure.

No one knows what Apple's projected sales numbers were. All projections I've seen have been from analysts who have made quite a few revisions.

You should be asking why can't you run Xcode on the vision pro.

You can run it only on a Mac so makes sense, though maybe not desirable.

In the case of every successful Apple product they started by demonstrating why we needed a thing we didn’t know we needed.

The Apple watch was initially not targeted as a health device.

I went to a movie theater this past weekend for the first time since buying it and felt like I needed glasses the screen was so blurry by comparison to the Vision Pro

Yes.

Since VR and AR have been around for decades it seems questionable that content for it is suddenly going to appear now.

New content is highlighted in the VP app store every Thursday. This week included a new app from Sir David Attenborough. Watch whales swimming through your living room!

Go to a better theater. Sounds like you saw a low res digital projection. 35mm looks way better than digital.

Maybe you’ve never seen a 35 or 70mm projection?

Yes I have.

Haven't done the math but if you take iMax's 18k resolution and spread it out over 65, 95 or 125 feet it is going to be blurry. Theaters do have elaborate sound systems but they often play it at volumes which over long periods of time can cause ear damage. I much prefer watching at home on my OLED and Atmos sound system. VP trumps that with better resolution and an immersive environment. Not sure about VP lossless sound given airpods 2 limitations.

Haven't tried the iMax VP app given that it only allows rental.

We have reporting from multiple sources indicating that Apple had initially intended to ship over a million in the first year.

The highest number I ever saw was 800,000. All were just guesses from analysts.

The emotional posts so far are all coming from the defenders, not the detractors.

Search this thread for objective phrases such as "junk", "hell".

that waving your hands around in the air with a headset strapped to your head is not the future.

How would you propose interacting if not with your hands? That has been predicted as the way to interact with virtual displays in Science Fiction now for decades. Any one know which film was the first to use hand interactions with virtual displays? The only one I remember is Minority Report from 2002, although he was wearing something on his hands.

I would even wager that whatever might be the future interaction method/device is something we haven’t even seen yet

as above.

And there you have the two extremes regarding this topic. On one hand the convenience of biometric identification. On the other the very real danger of sharing your biometric data with ANYONE.

Not sure what you mean by sharing your biometric data. Apple's biometric systems are all handled on device by the secure enclave and the data isn't shared with anyone.

Customers and developers are both tired of it

If this were true you wouldn't see the posts from from frustrated individuals in countries where it isn't available, nor all of the new apps that are highlighted in the VP app store every Thursday.

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

The margins on the VP is probably quite small, with ~$1600 component cost. If you include development costs there may be virtually no margin at all.

That's just glass "very full" speculation though... unless you work inside at Apple and know for sure. Another speculation can offer it has HIGHER margin than anything else they offer and that is part of why the price is as high as it is. That could be just as true since it's someone's guess vs. someone else's guess.

Unlike many of these posters, I'm quite positive on Vpro and the whole concept of it. I see tremendous value in a small, lightweight package that can deliver a 100" computer screen wherever I am. Apparently version 2 of the OS will bring a much wider "virtual ultra-wide" version of that screen, which will make that benefit even better for those of us who prefer huge mobile spaces to get our work done instead of the "what's ONE use case?" crowd apparently happy working within a 16" rectangle or smaller when "on the go."

Since margin is pure speculation, I 100% doubt Apple is making nothing on this product. There is no obvious sign of any typical loss leader approach in play here... such as giving game consoles away at cost to make money on proprietary games sold later. Instead, I suspect up to the full (near 50%) Apple margin is in this price and that is part of what is making it "feel" so relatively high. I don't write that to imply the "remedy" is for Apple to go non-profit on this product or take less than whatever they want... just simply sharing what I suspect... fully acknowledging that my guess could be entirely wrong.

I see the price as HIGH too... as I see the relative price of iPhone high vs. $200 smart phones... MB high vs. $200 laptops... iPads high vs. $100 tablets, Apple RAM & SSD upgrades VERY high vs. market, etc. Fat Profit pricing is the Apple way in ALL things... not just in this ONE thing. Put that $1000 monitor stand, $700 wheels or $20 handkerchief in the shopping cart.

Does that mean I don't see the VALUE of Vpro, like most of these pessimists? Not at all. I spent over $2K for a 40" ultra-wide monitor that is basically anchored to ONE spot for probably life of device. It's fantastic to have all that screen R.E. to do my work and I really miss it when I hit the road and have to work within a "puny" 16" screen. There's no practical way to carry around that 40" UW screen- too big, bulky, heavy, etc. I do NOT think some kind of future "fold" or "roll" options will be a better way to >16" use-anywhere screens. Within that concept, Vpro seems to be an ideal option since its screen can scale well beyond any practical fold/roll laptop in the future.

Vpro offers a 4K-per-eye, giganto screen(s) on demand within a relatively small, relatively light-weight package. If over $2K is easily justified for a physical screen anchored to one spot, is $1500 more than that really "insane" for an any-size screen wherever else I happen to be? Emphatically "NO!" (IMO)

Similarly on the "just buy an OLED TV" posts in every Vpro thread, who doesn't already have their big screen TV? Too many pessimists position their pessimism that this is an either/or proposition (own either a big TV OR a Vpro) when I bet nearly EVERY person who buys any VR product already has their big TV, already has their favorite laptop, etc. It's not either/or but an AND... like owning a desktop AND a laptop or an iPhone AND an iPad or a computer screen AND a TV.

And their TV is as anchored to wherever they have it sitting as my UW monitor. There's no taking the big TV on the plane and using it there... or to all of the hotels on each trip, etc. That flexibility of having a big-screen computer monitor(s) and TV(s) ANYWHERE one happens to be is a very tangible use case for those of us regularly traveling and not loving doing our work (or video viewing) on screens <= 16".

Is that worth $3500+ to everyone? Of course not... but neither is the relatively high pricing of iPhone, Macs, iPads & AppleTVs "worth it" to everyone. Most of the world chooses Android Phones, Windows PCs, Android tablets and Chrome/Roku/Fire TV boxes over the Apple options. But much of the crowd so pessimistic about this product would die on their hill defending the high-to-very-high pricing of the rest of the lineup.

 

[Timo_Existencia]

We understand the need to push distractions out and find time to focus, sure. But there’s not much on offer for being productive in this new environment/paradigm (yet).

The apps I do most of my work in are available in the AVP. And, I can mirror my MacBook Pro in the AVP and work in apps that are available there.

If you haven't found any way to be productive in the AVP that's quite odd.

 

[HudsonSteele]

Can’t say I’m shocked people aren’t dropping $4k on a product with limited practical use.

 

[pianophile]

I am confident that Apple is in this for the long run and for now, it will be interesting to sit back and watch how this product category continues to develop over the next couple of years.

My feelings are similar. I recall the original iPhone: so limited on launch, but clearly pointing to the future of mobile computing. It was obvious at the time, even though I didn't buy one that year.

 

[Abazigal]

My feelings are similar. I recall the original iPhone: so limited on launch, but clearly pointing to the future of mobile computing. It was obvious at the time, even though I didn't buy one that year.

I often wonder if the people making all this doomsaying ever find it tedious. I keep seeing talk of the alleged failure of a new product, with a good dose of misinformation peppered in (sales figures for one, which nobody except Apple really knows, and the number seems to keep fluctuating as and how pundits feel like it), and hardly ever reference the experiences of a happy customer. Or when I bring up potential positive use cases, they get dismissed out of hand (kinda like when I bring up my experiences with my iPad).

The theme overwhelmingly seems to revolve around short-term sales and profit (which is ironic when you consider this is the exact same thing people here love to criticise Apple over), and I still think that there is too much emphasis on price, and not enough on the end user experience.

Are there cheaper headsets around? Sure, but they tend to be cheap(er) for a reason. Namely the display resolution, and I suspect that if I were to try on a Meta Quest 3 headset now, I would probably find the experience annoying (eg: visible pixels). Well, the price is also 1/6 that of a vision pro, and I still bought an iPhone knowing it was 3 times the price of an equivalently-specced android phone, so it shows there are people willing to pay for a great experience.

 

[macfacts]

The problem with the vision pro is similar to the homepod, sure the specs for the homepod compared to other smart speakers can't be beat but they are overkill. The vision pro specs can't be beat but if the "killer app" is just watching video the competition is good enough.

 

[HDFan]

That's just glass "very full" speculation though.

True. No one but Apple knows the actual cost.

I suspect up to the full (near 50%) Apple margin is in this price

I think we can eliminate that possibility given that the component costs alone are ~50% for the base model. iPhone margins are less than that at ~46%. We've discussed the additional development costs but not selling and support costs. Setting up all of those custom demo areas in U.S. stores, training the staff, paying them to give demos is not cheap.

The folks at Apple were not unaware of the consequences of such a high price. In contrast to other devices where they can pretty much set the price knowing that people will buy it my guess is that they reduced their margins to keep the price as low as they could.

But, as you say, the actual margins are publicly unknown.

 

[Chungry]

The apps I do most of my work in are available in the AVP. And, I can mirror my MacBook Pro in the AVP and work in apps that are available there.

If you haven't found any way to be productive in the AVP that's quite odd.

That’s not what I said at all. And having to use your Mac proves one of my earlier posts- this device isn’t standalone it needs the Mac. It’s a tacit admission it wasn’t ready for release. You can’t get work done standalone without the Mac escape hatch. This is deeply flawed

 

[thebart]

And what is the use case you think I’m talking about? Even if you don’t understand my use case specifically, as developers, you should. Isolation, in a world overrun with distractions, is a use case you should understand.reach beyond the world you see.

Uh no. I'm already locked in when I'm coding. I have my Mac set to announce the time on the half hour so I'll get up and move around, eat lunch etc. I don't need to be more locked in by wearing a contraption on my head. But hey, to each his own

The more you talk about your AVP experience, the more I think you are, let us say, a singular person

 

[ThunderSkunk]

Looks like theyre already worth just $2200 on ebay. I’ll wait another year til theyre $1200-$1500, then see what tools there are to convert my old film collection to a format more immersive for it.

 

[Timo_Existencia]

I don't need to be more locked in by wearing a contraption on my head. But hey, to each his own

The more you talk about your AVP experience, the more I think you are, let us say, a singular person

Imagine that. Humans are not all the same. Your needs are not my needs. Different work works differently.

I don't conclude from my experience and needs that the AVP is meant for everyone. But I keep seeing, over and over, so many of you who can't imagine a use case or a need for the AVP, and therefore think that it is a stupid or "deeply flawed" product.

It's not for you. That says nothing about whether the AVP works for anyone else.

 

[blocsapp]

I’ve had mine 3 days and can’t put it down. Watching movies and gaming on it, is simply amazing. Any parents out there, the new 3d image conversion on visionOS 2 is incredible, I felt like I could pick my kids out of the photos I converted 🥺

I’d also say the environments our brilliant and relaxing as well, they really help you focus.

It’s not perfect, it needs to come down in weight and price. But this new platform has something very special. Way better than meta hardware, been in the AVP for hours with zero eye strain or dizziness/sickness (unlike the quest).

 

[HDFan]

And having to use your Mac proves one of my earlier posts- this device isn’t standalone it needs the Mac.

Not at all. 90% of my use is with VP apps with no Mac usage.

 

[Bodhitree]

Well, if all they’ve managed to sell in the launch quarter in the US is 100.000 units, I’d be surprised if they top 300.000 globally for the year. There just aren’t as many customers willing to shell out that kind of money for a first-gen device.

But even at a lower price point, say 1500 dollars, it’s still a new computers worth of cash for a device which lacks the usability of say an iPad. I’m not convinced it fits into my computing life.

 

[JimmyHook]

What????? 1st Gen iPhone revolutionized the mobile phone industry and was a complete sellout for nearly a year before supply began to meet demand. And the trend remained that way each generational release for nearly a decade.

1st Gen iPad similar sellouts with demand only tapering off by 3rd gen.

Apple Watch also was sold out with exception of the ultra premium Gold and Ceramic watches being less desirable for a while.

The Vision Pro passed through the market like a silent dog fart in the dead of night. If you were awake while it happened you smelled something off and the closer to it you were the stronger the scent but it passed quickly and was forgotten. If you weren’t wide awake and paying attention then you didn’t even notice it happened.

I don’t see anyone turning around and giving it a second look. Not at this price and not with the current design.

Wrong. 1st gen iPhone was a niche product, only available for AT&T customers who had to purchase a special data plan. It was not an instant hit by any measure.

iPad 2 was the first iPad to really gain traction.

 

[fatTribble]

And what is that killer app going to be? A Game? A 3-D word processor?

The AVP is not about killer apps. Its killer feature is its environment, the endless canvas, eye and hand tracking and all other features not found on other devices. Adding to that the fact that it's also a computer.

Exactly. It’s the same way I view my iPad Pro. There is no killer app for me. The killer feature is the screen.

 

[Amazing Iceman]

Wrong. 1st gen iPhone was a niche product, only available for AT&T customers who had to purchase a special data plan. It was not an instant hit by any measure.

iPad 2 was the first iPad to really gain traction.

iPhone 1 didn’t get my attention. I had a really nice HP iPaq computer besides my phone.

The iPad 1 did get my attention but it had to go through the 2-week trial. I almost returned it after the 3rd day, but decided to keep it as long as possible. By mid second week I made my decision to keep it.
By then I already had set up a workflow, put together a group of work tools. It paid itself by the end of the 2 weeks, so it was a keeper. I found it yesterday while cleaning my office. It brought back some very good memories.

My next iPad was the iPad with Retina display.

 

[Amazing Iceman]

Well, if all they’ve managed to sell in the launch quarter in the US is 100.000 units, I’d be surprised if they top 300.000 globally for the year. There just aren’t as many customers willing to shell out that kind of money for a first-gen device.

But even at a lower price point, say 1500 dollars, it’s still a new computers worth of cash for a device which lacks the usability of say an iPad. I’m not convinced it fits into my computing life.

Why would you say it lacks the usability of an iPad? On the contrary, it’s more than an iPad.

 

[Bodhitree]

Why would you say it lacks the usability of an iPad? On the contrary, it’s more than an iPad.

It’s just that, you have to strap it to your head, with all the weight that implies. Plus I’ve heard you have to log in. It’s not exactly a smooth experience compared to the fingerprint-and-go iPads. It also only has 2-3 hours battery life, compared to the 10 hrs of the iPad.

 

[Amazing Iceman]

It’s just that, you have to strap it to your head, with all the weight that implies. Plus I’ve heard you have to log in. It’s not exactly a smooth experience compared to the fingerprint-and-go iPads. It also only has 2-3 hours battery life, compared to the 10 hrs of the iPad.

You have heard, you have read... but haven't tried it.

As someone who owns one since day 1 and uses it almost everyday for both work and entertainment, I have to say that:
• Weight is not an issue after all.
• You may log in with a PIN or password or even better, use OpticalID. What's easier than that? I put it on, open my eyes and I'm logged in.
• Battery life is not an issue for me: I always carry a 26,800mAh Battery Pack with me for multiple reasons anyway, so if I'm not able to plug into power, I'll plug into my battery. So far, I haven't ran out of power on my AVP.

For my daily work, I carry a backpack with some tools, iPad Pro 12.9", MacBook Pro 13", AVP, Battery Pack, and some patch cords and adapters. And an extra Polo Shirt.

If I'm only taking my AVP, I would carry it in a very compact case I bought at Amazon, which can fit:
• AVP with its battery pack
• Backup 20,000mAh battery pack
• Power adapter with USB-C cable and Lightning cable.
• Foldable Keyboard
• Magic TrackPad
• Cleaning microfiber cloth.

Don't allow the haters and "experts" to mold your own point of views and experiences and decide for you.
The best way for you to decide if the AVP is for you is to do like I did: I bought it under the condition of returning it within 14 days if I didn't like it.

 

[Amazing Iceman]

Timo… Tim is that you?!

But seriously we’ve got over a dozen of these devices and I just showed this to some of the folks in our dev team since we’re crunching tonight. I think nearly everyone takes issue with your point on productivity. “Seems unlikely” and “I’d challenge that statement for specifics” are what they floated back when I shared the screenshot of your response. The fit is subjective but I mean all the other stuff falls squarely in the category of you do you. Specifically no one on the team will argue about its chops for consuming content. But getting real work done and (in our case) making enterprise productivity apps, well therein lies the rub. The dev tools are inadequate compared to their sibling platforms. I think it’s a total cheat and an admission the unit is rudderless that they had to bake in a Mac escape hatch to offer some semblance of productivity. It can’t stand on its own and all we have are promises of what it may some day be capable of. To be clear I want it to succeed but it’s disingenuous to claim at this point that anyone is getting serious work done. This is like an immersive video iPod with apps but it’s not for coding, editing, office tasks or even managing files in thoughtful ways.

Edit: on Tim’s interview about using it daily, I’ll just respond by quoting George Costanza: “it’s not a lie if you believe it”

As a user since day 1, I disagree with you. You and your buddies may have their opinions, based on other people's opinions. You claimed to have over a dozen of these devices.... a dozen AVPs? or a dozen VR toys from other brands?

Again, if you want your opinion to count, give it out your own experience with the product. Stop listening to the haters and the "experts" out there.
Try it out first and your opinion will earn its due respect