Apple Vision Pro Unlikely to Hit 500,000 Sales This Year, Says IDC

[ThunderSkunk]

Agree totally. I regret keeping mine. Price is not a real issue. Lack of content is.

I'm curious about that content. Is it limited to streaming from Apples own store? I remember the anticipation of iMovie coming to the iPad, so we'd finally be able to work with video compositions with our fingers as easily as a kid playing in fingerpaints. But then the extent of Apples vision was limited to extremely minimal edits to whatever videos were shot on the device itself and that was it.

I'm surprised they didn't also buy, develop & integrate analytical video software to give the worlds existing videos resolution & depth effects so users can convert their own existing media to a more immersive viewing experience in VP. Seems like a massive missed opportunity.

 

[routine_analyst]

It'll be a hit once we have content for it. Right now the app selection is pretty weak, but that'll take time to develop.

What's more interesting is the media production infrastructure. If Apple can get to a point where they can broadcast basketball games (or any other sport) in VR that'll be the tipping point. But for that to happen, they'll need time to redesign broadcast productions for VR. Things like camera angles and storytelling and data visualization needs practice to develop in a new format.

Right now, NBA basketball games and NFL football games have like 50 years of broadcast experience behind them, where they've developed every shot format perfectly to match the storytelling of each game. This will take time for VR headset media production companies to develop and train, including camera operators and technical directors. Cameras have to be much more steady otherwise we're going to throw up due to motion sickness, for example. Camera operators have to be trained to unlearn their traditional ways.

The VR cameras are only now becoming more accessible, like the upcoming BlackMagic Ursa Cinema Immersive camera. They will likely need entire backend production equipment to be redesigned/developed as well for broadcast purposes. This kind of infrastructure is likely 5-10 years away.

You like watching sports by yourself?

 

[Amazing Iceman]

I live in Canada and the base model without prescription lenses starts at $4999. 1TB with lenses is around $6700. absolutely out of touch pricing.

Buy it in the U.S.

 

[IIGS User]

This is the same chicken/egg issue that plagued personal computers in the beginning. Really expensive, not a lot of native content. Really for first adopters and hobbyists.

A brand-new Apple IIGS with a monitor cost $1498 in 1988. Close to $2800 today. And who in their right mind would pay $2800 for something as limited as a IIGS? There wasn't a lot of native software, and without a printer what could you do with it? Not much. There was no internet yet. It was really a limited proposition, especially considering what computers can do today.

I don't have a lot of interest in VR headsets right now. But, I can see the potential in the fields of engineering, biology, and medicine. There's a lot of potential there.

I don't think Apple put something like this out expecting it to make huge sales numbers. This is a flagship / "halo" item that takes technology in a new direction for the sake of doing so. It will take years to bear fruit.

I mean, the Newton ultimately lead to the iPhone and iPad and it was considered a flop when it came out. But there's no denying it was groundbreaking when it was introduced.

Eat up Martha

 

[thebart]

It'll be a hit once we have content for it. Right now the app selection is pretty weak, but that'll take time to develop.

What's more interesting is the media production infrastructure. If Apple can get to a point where they can broadcast basketball games (or any other sport) in VR that'll be the tipping point. But for that to happen, they'll need time to redesign broadcast productions for VR. Things like camera angles and storytelling and data visualization needs practice to develop in a new format.

Right now, NBA basketball games and NFL football games have like 50 years of broadcast experience behind them, where they've developed every shot format perfectly to match the storytelling of each game. This will take time for VR headset media production companies to develop and train, including camera operators and technical directors. Cameras have to be much more steady otherwise we're going to throw up due to motion sickness, for example. Camera operators have to be trained to unlearn their traditional ways.

The VR cameras are only now becoming more accessible, like the upcoming BlackMagic Ursa Cinema Immersive camera. They will likely need entire backend production equipment to be redesigned/developed as well for broadcast purposes. This kind of infrastructure is likely 5-10 years away.

You practically can't even buy a 1080p television any more but the Superbowl, the biggest event of the most watched sport in America, was not shot in 4k. It was shot in hi def and upscaled to 4k for broadcast. Because money. VR is gonna take a while

 

[Bryanmsi]

Price is only part of the problem (a big part, to be sure). The problem is nobody wants to wear ski goggles on their face. IT looks ridiculous. It is isolating. It solves no serious problem anyone has.

Nobody will wear this out in public. Few will wear it in a business setting. At home, in private? Maybe, but then it is like the 3D TV feature from 20 years ago (which was also 'cool' and 'mind blowing' and "transforms media") but at like 10x the price. Only now instead of buying 3D glasses for the whole family at $20-$100 each, you now have to buy a $4000 headset that needs to charge, get software updates, and is breakable.

Augmented reality will absolutely come. It will not come in the form of ski goggles.

 

[Surf Monkey]

Slowly but surely interest is gaining. It’s not going to be as fast as a $500 iPhone but it’ll get there. FB groups keep adding members and search Apple Vision Pro news and you’ll get more and more articles.

Slowly but surely the Vision is flopping and probably won’t last more than a couple years before Apple completely abandons it.

 

[turbineseaplane]

Whenever it's a slow news day, one need only post "anything" about AVP and it gives us a nice all day argument about the same old talking points

No new data ... just all of us trotting out the same argument all over again - lol

I guess I shouldn't say "no new data", as more time passing is actually more data corroborating what a total face plant flop this thing is.

I'd say the person who green lit this release should be fired, but I think it was probably Tim Cook

Well actually... yeah, I wouldn't mind him being fired

 

[Surf Monkey]

This is the same chicken/egg issue that plagued personal computers in the beginning. Really expensive, not a lot of native content. Really for first adopters and hobbyists.

A brand-new Apple IIGS with a monitor cost $1498 in 1988. Close to $2800 today. And who in their right mind would pay $2800 for something as limited as a IIGS? There wasn't a lot of native software, and without a printer what could you do with it? Not much. There was no internet yet. It was really a limited proposition, especially considering what computers can do today.

I don't have a lot of interest in VR headsets right now. But, I can see the potential in the fields of engineering, biology, and medicine. There's a lot of potential there.

I don't think Apple put something like this out expecting it to make huge sales numbers. This is a flagship / "halo" item that takes technology in a new direction for the sake of doing so. It will take years to bear fruit.

I mean, the Newton ultimately lead to the iPhone and iPad and it was considered a flop when it came out. But there's no denying it was groundbreaking when it was introduced.

Eat up Martha

Come on now. The idea that the Newton Message Pad is somehow iPhone Beta 1 is absurd. They don’t share any DNA.

 

[turbineseaplane]

I don't have a lot of interest in VR headsets right now. But, I can see the potential in the fields of engineering, biology, and medicine. There's a lot of potential there.

This has been the story for about a decade of VR now and we really aren't much closer honestly

 

[Seamaster]

So the Scuba Mask From Hell was DOA. Who knew?

 

[GadgetBen]

VR/AR fans need to understand that most of the world does not want to live in a headset.

 

[platinumaqua]

You practically can't even buy a 1080p television any more but the Superbowl, the biggest event of the most watched sport in America, was not shot in 4k. It was shot in hi def and upscaled to 4k for broadcast. Because money. VR is gonna take a while

plus the bitrate is horrible on broadcast TV. I rather have lower resolution with higher bitrates for less compression artifacts on fast moving scenes

 

[uacd]

Surely it won't.
There are billions of other ways to waste 3500$*,
here is just what comes to my mind:

*but you can waste a lot cheaper and still get nice coffee heheheheh

 

[Surf Monkey]

I love mine and it fits my needs, use case, very well.

It's too expensive for most people, even though that's a matter of preference. For example, many people in the US spend more to upgrade the seats of their car to leather than the cost of the AVP. Too many of you have decided that your preference of how you spend your money is some universal truth. But it's not. For me, for my use case, the cost is justified.

Apple understood this was going to be a long term project. The AVP is not going away.

If you don't need it, you don't need it. Just like most people don't need the Mac Studio. Your lack of need for it says nothing about the product. Too many on here acting like they are next-level prognosticators.

I don’t see how any of that is justified. The product has already resulted in a series of negative outcomes including Apple pulling back dev on the Pro. Lack of significant sales is a serious problem for the product that won’t be easily swept under the rug. Apple isn’t an R&D company. They’re a consumer electronics company. There’s only so long their board of directors will allow the company to point a firehouse of money at a product no one wants.

 

[votdfak]

I've purchased Quest 3, just to tip my toes into VR world. I like it. Not a huge investment at 540EUR. I don't like 7-10x more for AVP.

 

[Surf Monkey]

Who is saying that everyone wants to live in a headset?

Apple?

“The future of computing.”

Pretty much everyone uses a computer all day long. Suggesting that Vision is the future of computing indicates that Apple absolutely does expect everyone to want to live inside a headset. And yet, no one at Apple seems to be doing that, so…

 

[AF_APPLETALK]

Needs to be lighter and thinner before I’ll consider it. 1k cheaper would also help.

 

[jz0309]

The numbers thrown out there are fitting for this site: RUMORS.
We’ve heard so many different ones and one thing is clear: only Apple knows…

 

[Surf Monkey]

The numbers thrown out there are fitting for this site: RUMORS.
We’ve heard so many different ones and one thing is clear: only Apple knows…

Except that virtually all of the reporting coming out of Apple is negative.

 

[Cirillo Gherardo]

It's difficult to convince people to buy a $3500+ pair of computer goggles.

And no, this is not the same as Steve Ballmer laughing at the iPhone.

It's difficult to convince people to buy a $3,500 iPad for their face.

 

[Cirillo Gherardo]

A more affordable version would need to be sub-$1000 before I would even consider buying one.

And considering Apple had to put $2,000 worth of technology into this one for it to still suck, what could a $1,000 version possibly bring to the table?

 

[Surf Monkey]

It's difficult to convince people to buy a $3,500 iPad for their face.

An iPad that’s harder to use than the iPad you already own.

 

[robgreene]

Friendly reminder... this is the sales arc of the iPod:

 

[Rychiar]

Despite my insane fandom of Nintendo as a child I never wanted the Virtual Boy. Guess some things never change.

I never wanted that either cus it was all red line art. this thing fulfills my childhood dream of what virtual environments could be... just needs software.