if they built 750,000 and only sold 400,000 I would guess that they would be disappointed to have sold little more than half of what they produced.
and we'll never see return numbers......
Got a tip for us?
Let us know
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
Apple Vision Pro Unlikely to Hit 500,000 Sales This Year, Says IDC
- Thread starter MacRumors
- Start date
- Sort by reaction score
if they built 750,000 and only sold 400,000 I would guess that they would be disappointed to have sold little more than half of what they produced.
and we'll never see return numbers......
again, the iPod was released in November
so you are comparing 2 months of sales for the iPod to what will be 10 months for the goggles by the end of the year
not to mention an exponentially increased population size
At the preorder stage, there were dozens of forum comments saying, if 1% of iPhone users would buy the vision pro, it would be a hit. They were thinking I'm not rich but other iPhone users are.
they apparently produced 750,000 units
and to reiterate the point of the person you were responding to, Sony didn't start producing displays for them on 1 jan
............
I don't know why I'm arguing about supply chain, possibly the most boring subject on earth. which is why apple is such a boring company now.
Well, that kind of makes the spatial UI irrelevant, right? And I asked a lot more critical questions than that.
Thankfully, I am not comparing 2 months of sales for the iPod. I am comparing it's first year sales, as seen in the attached graphic, which I shared earlier. The reality is that the iPod sold 376,000 units in it's first fiscal year. Depending on which news source you choose to believe, and I'll use the most conservative estimates out there, Apple Vision Pro is expected to sell a minimum of 400,000 units in it's first fiscal year.
There's a difference between "I don't like this product" and "no one likes this product." The former is true. The latter is a projection of your feelings on the marketplace.
For you. But as the massive demand for tickets to live sports events prove, many if not most sports fans would prefer to attend a live event, not experience it within a plastic isolation helmet.
On the other hand, there are also people who seem to believe that Apple has lost its spark and every new endeavour is doomed to fail. We saw it with the Apple Watch, the AirPods, apple silicon, TV+ etc.
I suppose if Apple releases 10 new products, and you keep arguing that every single one will fail, you may eventually get at least one correct (and 9 wrong). On the flip side, if I argue for Apple, and even if one does fail, it's still a tally of 9 correct and 1 wrong, yet the critic who got that 1 "prediction" right is somehow being given more weight than me having 9 right.
All because it no longer seems categorically cool to root for Apple these days. And even if, in the process of trying to get that 1 doom prediction right, the critics have gotten enough wrong that in the greater scope of things, they would still have been wrong, in that they don't understand business in general, and they don't understand Apple, and their words really have no more weight than some random stranger on the street claiming he knows what the next winning lottery numbers are.
To use an analogy, when I bought my first ipad, I was comfortable bringing it on my overseas school trip with my students in lieu of my laptop, and it was better at its assigned task of blogging about our daily experiences, and handling the daily admin tasks.
The iPad wasn't any more powerful or "capable" than a laptop, but it excelled in terms of its longer battery life, ease of use (apps like Wordpress made it easier to upload blog content over a traditional web interface, plus I could take photos directly with its inbuilt camera) and cellular support meant I didn't have to tether from my phone. The form factor also made it more convenient to work in cramped spaces like on the bus, or while walking around. This allowed me to complete my tasks by the time I returned to our hotel, freeing up my evenings.
All these came together to make the iPad situationally more versatile than a conventional laptop under the right circumstances. That's what these alternative computing platforms offer - options where traditional solutions would otherwise fail users.
The question very often isn't what can be accomplished with the Vision Pro, but how it rethinks the way some tasks are carried out. When I am outdoors, I can't realistically bring a 32" monitor along with me, but I can bring along my vision pro which then doubles as a larger screen when I am at Starbucks. Passthrough gives me awareness of my surroundings, and customers don't get to see what's on my screen (so better privacy).
When I can control my interface with my eyes and hands, I don't need a keyboard and mouse, thus freeing up my hands. A headset means I don't have to hold up my phone with my hands in order to consume content. And when you are able to use the Vision Pro in scenarios where a laptop or PC simply isn't feasible, that's when new use cases arise (and sometimes even end up replacing the old ways of doing stuff).
People seriously need to look beyond traditional PC tasks like spreadsheets or video editing as the be-all and end-all of "productivity", as though no other scenarios exist.
A false expectation. There’s no guarantee that the system will get significantly smaller any time soon without severely compromising it.
Battling against straw men is fine, but not especially relevant to what anyone here has actually plated.
I don't think I am battling straw men. This genuinely is my impression and my takeaway, having been here since 2011, where there has been immense cynicism and negativity towards anything that Apple did. You should have seen the massive meltdown when Samsung released the first Galaxy Fold, even as that quickly got recalled, and even as it becomes increasingly clear that foldable as a product category isn't really catching. And yet nobody really remembers all the times the critics and the haters got Apple wrong. They are just flitting from one manufactured controversy to the next like a butterfly with ADHD.
That's what is tiring. They so desperately want to be right, but are not willing to put in the effort to actually understand how Apple works. They just want to be right.
I don’t know why there’s always this concerted effort to make things personal. It isn’t something that the mods here like. Instead of trying to evaluate people’s psychology maybe we stick to the topic?
Ok
I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that waving your hands around in the air with a headset strapped to your head is not the future.
I think what’s happening here is everybody has just seen so much sci-fi that they think that’s gotta be the reality we are heading towards
I would even wager that whatever might be the future interaction method/device is something we haven’t even seen yet
Agree. This happens all the time. Sci-fi shows and movies come up with these wild concepts that extend beyond the realm of possibility and people go “gimme gimme!!” But that interface in Minority Report? That is never going to happen without drastic compromises… like wearing a big plastic isolation helmet on your head.
Not really, I sometimes use my iPad with touch and other times with keyboard and mouse. It’s flexible and the same can be said for AVP. I can use the keyboard and mouse for some tasks and hand/eye tracking for others.
so in the end it's exactly what I've been saying, a different type of display set up
instead of the display sitting in front of you (my preference) or in your hands (some people seem to like this) it's strapped to your face
other than that there is nothing really new here
you could get a similar effect by mounting a couple iPads to your wall and stabbing at them with your fingers
But again, the question I asked (amongst others) was “what problem with current interfaces does this solve?” If the eye tracking and hand gesture system is better, someone should be able to describe exactly how, right? Explain what specific goals can only be accomplished with the spacial computing system?
If this is the “future of computing” it should have at least one significant advantage over the current system.
It seems clear what AVP can do great is huge immersive screen experiences
Apple should probably make a version that is optimized for just that and perhaps requires either an iOS device or macOS device as a host (maybe even wireless with AirPlay of some kind, etc)
That would allow them to get the form factor to be more minimal, comfortable, socially acceptable and hopefully get the cost way down
Apple should probably make a version that is optimized for just that and perhaps requires either an iOS device or macOS device as a host (maybe even wireless with AirPlay of some kind, etc)
That would allow them to get the form factor to be more minimal, comfortable, socially acceptable and hopefully get the cost way down
What does history tell you about technology and how its physical size changes over time? Generally would you agree it gets smaller and more refined over time?
It tells me that many technologies reach a size that can’t be reduced any further. That in many technologies and products miniaturization isn’t ideal. That often devices get larger based on the needs of the consumer, not smaller.
The idea that it’s a one way street where every single technology just gets smaller and smaller and smaller is an illusion.