Apple Vision Pro Unlikely to Hit 500,000 Sales This Year, Says IDC

[Surf Monkey]

When the iPod came out, MP3 players were not a common thing, more people were comfortable with CD players.

False. The Nomad Zen was quite popular and lead a whole class of “jukebox” players.

It was the marketplace that sold it... but Music was also a thing that almost everyone enjoys in one way or another... and having your library contained in a pocket sized device was an alluring thing that soon drew everyones attention.

Obviously. And that’s why the comparison in this case is apt. People could instantly understand why they would want an iPod. People can not easily understand why they would want a Vision.

the Vision will not have much content that draws people like Music does... while I do love VR content, It is not something that I would bring with me... and till it becomes images projected onto the retina, AR is not going to be a think most people will want.

Since VR and AR have been around for decades it seems questionable that content for it is suddenly going to appear now.

Also when the iPod came out the world population was 6billion people. It's now over 8billion, so 100,000 then would be 133,000 now. And more people had more disposable income back then.

That’s a massive reach.

 

[Surf Monkey]

I went to a movie theater this past weekend for the first time since buying it and felt like I needed glasses the screen was so blurry by comparison to the Vision Pro

Go to a better theater. Sounds like you saw a low res digital projection. 35mm looks way better than digital.

 

[mister salty]

If you consider returns, its unlikely to hit 250k in sales this year.

Let's say they do end up selling 250k units (after returns, etc.). That feels right.
250,000 units at $4,000 avg sale price is $1,000,000,000.

I have no idea what numbers Apple expected, but my naive gut reaction is "Not bad for a first year for an entirely new product line in a new product category." We know the cost for R&D, manufacturing setup, and marketing is immense … but hard to imagine it's more than $1B?

And we know Apple's classic formula of high-cost, small-volume v1 release followed with lower-cost, higher-volume will kick in at some point. Let's say they sell 3 million units over the first 5 years of the product category's life at an average sale price of $3000 … that's $9B.

 

[Rychiar]

Go to a better theater. Sounds like you saw a low res digital projection. 35mm looks way better than digital.

theaters still never come close to the fidelity of Vision Pro and never will no matter which theater

 

[Surf Monkey]

theaters still never come close to the fidelity of Vision Pro and never will no matter which theater

I disagree. Strongly. Maybe you’ve never seen a 35 or 70mm projection?

 

[JimmyHook]

Y’all aren’t looking at the product in totality.

1st gen Apple Watch: interested folks but sales were meh

1st gen iPhone: same

1st gen iPad: same

The lower cost items, like AirPods, are usually instant hits. It’s going to take time for this product line to bake.

 

[atomic.flip]

Yeah this is no shock. 3500 USD before taxes is an insane amount of money for a platform with virtually zero content. They should have been subsidizing this thing just for the adoption if they had any genuine interest or faith in the product. This is a throw-away product that was done just to say they did.

 

[NT1440]

7 pages of the same rehashing opinions…from an article that falls under “no ****”.

IDC predicts less than 500,000 units will be sold when they can’t even manufacture that many if they wanted to.

Media literacy is dead, buried, and absolutely despised at this point.

 

[turbineseaplane]

Yeah this is no shock. 3500 USD before taxes is an insane amount of money for a platform with virtually zero content. They should have been subsidizing this thing just for the adoption if they had any genuine interest or faith in the product. This is a throw-away product that was done just to say they did.

A wonderfully concise and accurate summary

Bravo!

👏

 

[atomic.flip]

Y’all aren’t looking at the product in totality.

1st gen Apple Watch: interested folks but sales were meh

1st gen iPhone: same

1st gen iPad: same

The lower cost items, like AirPods, are usually instant hits. It’s going to take time for this product line to bake.

What????? 1st Gen iPhone revolutionized the mobile phone industry and was a complete sellout for nearly a year before supply began to meet demand. And the trend remained that way each generational release for nearly a decade.

1st Gen iPad similar sellouts with demand only tapering off by 3rd gen.

Apple Watch also was sold out with exception of the ultra premium Gold and Ceramic watches being less desirable for a while.

The Vision Pro passed through the market like a silent dog fart in the dead of night. If you were awake while it happened you smelled something off and the closer to it you were the stronger the scent but it passed quickly and was forgotten. If you weren’t wide awake and paying attention then you didn’t even notice it happened.

I don’t see anyone turning around and giving it a second look. Not at this price and not with the current design.

 

[DeepWebinar]

it’s almost like this thing is really dumb and bad and no one wants it :/

 

[Silverado]

How can IDC say that Apple is unlikely to hit 500,000 sales, when Apple is unlikely to produce more than 400,000 units this year !! Doesn’t make sense !!

Makes perfect sense! It’s even less likely that they sell 600,000 units, let alone 700,000 units.

😂

 

[Jumpthesnark]

Seven pages of mostly rage posts, no wonder MR loves posting items - positive or negative - about the AVP. It drives traffic!

Nothing wrong with that at all. The AVP is doing its part to keep the lights on here.

 

[turbineseaplane]

Seven pages of mostly rage posts

What's your definition of a "rage post"?

 

[pianophile]

For me it's by far the best "iPad" I've ever bought.

I thought the same thing when I demoed one. I will replace my iPad with this one day.

 

[webkit]

1st Gen iPhone revolutionized the mobile phone industry and was a complete sellout for nearly a year before supply began to meet demand. And the trend remained that way each generational release for nearly a decade.

Less than three months after launch, Apple significantly reduced iPhone prices by $200 (33% to 40%). Had Apple not slashed prices early on, it could've been a very different story for the iPhone. If Apple was willing/able to reduce AVP prices by a similar percentage, we may be talking about "sellout" numbers for it too.

 

[Surf Monkey]

IDC predicts less than 500,000 units will be sold when they can’t even manufacture that many if they wanted to.

We have reporting from multiple sources indicating that Apple had initially intended to ship over a million in the first year. That was revised downward at least twice and now it appears they won’t even sell 400k of them. Your statement above says it all: “if they wanted to.” They won’t reach manufacturing capacity because the device isn’t selling at anywhere near expectations. They don’t want to make as many as they can.

 

[Surf Monkey]

Less than three months after launch, Apple significantly reduced iPhone prices by $200 (33% to 40%). Had Apple not slashed prices early on, it could've been a very different story for the iPhone. If Apple was willing/able to reduce AVP prices by a similar percentage, we may be talking about "sellout" numbers for it too.

Those were subsidies by the carriers, not Apple discounts on the hardware.

 

[turbineseaplane]

I thought the same thing when I demoed one. I will replace my iPad with this one day.

Wait, why not now?

 

[Surf Monkey]

Seven pages of mostly rage posts…

Where? Quote them. If there are actually seven pages of “rage posts” it should be easy to highlight a few.

Of course there aren’t seven pages of “rage posts” here. The emotional posts so far are all coming from the defenders, not the detractors.

 

[turbineseaplane]

I wonder if he brought his Scuba Mask with him to Sun Valley so he can "spatially compute" with the other flithy rich barons?

Doesn't look like he's really in the mood though, I have to say
He sorta looks like he just read the AVP sales numbers on his iPhone

 

[Surf Monkey]

I wonder if he brought his Scuba Mask with him to Sun Valley so he can "spatially compute" with the other flithy rich barons?

Doesn't look like he's really in the mood though, I have to say
He sorta looks like he just read the AVP sales numbers on his iPhone

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Has any Apple exec been shown wearing one in the last month? In the keynote video there was one sad bald guy wearing one in a group scene and that’s about it. Meanwhile every single human being in the video was wearing an Apple Watch and using an iPhone.

 

[turbineseaplane]

Has any Apple exec been shown wearing one in the last month? In the keynote video there was one sad bald guy wearing one in a group scene and that’s about it. Meanwhile every single human being in the video was wearing an Apple Watch and using an iPhone.

It's "the future"...

as in...they will wear one publicly...."maybe sometime in the future"

I mean ... would you want to be seen wearing one?
lmao

 

[nathansz]

The sales numbers suggest the iPod was not "instantly desirable to anyone who had exposure to it."

iPod was released in November

But more to the point, that was before a massive paradigm shift in consumer technology

now people are used to owning multiple personal computers in different formats from desktop towers down to watches

Not many people seem interested in the goggles format and it’s tough to imagine that changing until someone figures out something that it can actually do better than another format does already

 

[blocsapp]

There is a lot of comparison here between the AVP against the 1st gen iPods, iPhones and iPads.

It’s not a logical comparison, it doesn’t matter how good AVP is, it will always look bad in comparison, because AVP is so much more expensive and in all fairness way more advanced technologically (which is why it’s expensive).

Personally, I think a better, 1st gen Apple product to compare it to is the Mac.

Back in 1984, the Mac was expensive, nobody knew what to use it for, it sold in low numbers, but we all know now, it was the beginning of something.

I think this is more a 1984 moment, people will look back at the 1st gen AVP like we look back at the 128k Macintosh. Wow look how clunky and heavy that thing is, I can’t believe anyone would pay $7k for one, you can’t do anything with it.

But the first Mac lead the way.

It may not be called the Apple Vision Pro, but 20 years from now, something resembling it is going to replace iPads and iPhones. By this point I’ll be selling my AVP 1st gen on eBay for $20k as it’ll very sought after, just like a first gen Mac.