Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
A fantastic start to a nascent category. I'm looking forward to the day when Apple builds the device like a watch instead of a smartphone. Ribbon cables and glue are not for watches. And when killer apps emerge with true functionality that really are useful in the same way as say, a specialized Garmin running watch. And when the screen is readable in bright sunlight and the battery life is much better. I think it was a big mistake to go with the OLED display. Apple has set a smartphone bar for a product that should be more of a watch. And in so doing, really made it tough on themselves to increase battery life.
 
Depends on how much of that revenue was due to the Watch, and what the ASP was. For the range of $1B to $1.5B revenue, and ASPs either at the low or high end (more high end watches = less sales), plus a lot of bands sold, the number of watches can indeed range from about 2.2 to 3.3 million.

As for the oft-mentioned iPad numbers... Cook did NOT say what people think he did.

Here's what Cook actually said:

"To give you a little additional insight, through the end of the quarter, in fact, the Apple Watch sell-through was higher than the comparable launch periods of the original iPhone or the original iPad. "

Notice that he said "sell-through", NOT "sales". That's an entirely different ball of wax. Sell-through to end users is almost always less than the highly publicized sales (shipments) to retailers... often millions less.

Checking back through previous calls, it appears that sell-through on the first iPad quarter might have been around 2.7 million. We also need to figure out what "comparable launch period" means.

He also made this comment, talking about sales increasing over time:

"On the Watch, our June sales were higher than April or May. I realize that's very different than what some of the -- is being written, but June sales were the highest."

Which makes total sense if one understands that online purchases... unlike retailer purchases... are not counted as sales until they arrive at the end consumer. Very few consumers got a watch right away. Instead, more and more people got devices delivered as time went on and production ramped up. So naturally June had the most "sales", even if they were pre-ordered back in April.

This is all part of the verbal sleight-of-hand that Jobs was a master at, and Cook is clearly trying to be a good pupil.

So basically by your logic the watch is a failure and Cook is "lying" because demand was so high that Apple couldn't fulfill it? OOOOKKKK.....
 
  • Like
Reactions: Kroo and Tycho24
Hell, why suffer? Buy one today. I had a Pebble, which I agree was nice and did the job, but aWatch is SO much nicer. Yes, the second model will be better, as will the third and the fourth. But every year you delay buying is also another year you are punishing yourself.

I too had a Pebble. It was fine and fun. I have an Apple watch and sold the Pebble on eBay before the bottom dropped out. Comparing the 2 is like comparing lightning to the lightning bug I think is the quote.
 
A fantastic start to a nascent category. I'm looking forward to the day when Apple builds the device like a watch instead of a smartphone. Ribbon cables and glue are not for watches. And when killer apps emerge with true functionality that really are useful in the same way as say, a specialized Garmin running watch. And when the screen is readable in bright sunlight and the battery life is much better. I think it was a big mistake to go with the OLED display. Apple has set a smartphone bar for a product that should be more of a watch. And in so doing, really made it tough on themselves to increase battery life.

Then go to your room, start a kickstarter, and make it happen. Get back to us when you have achieved something
 
So if Apple sold 4M watches in Q3 then iPods and Beats really took a nose dive? Increase in "other" revenue QOQ was around $950M. A $400 ASP would be $1.6B meaning a $650M decline in iPod/Beats revenue.
That's entirely possible, but I think the 4 million estimate is high. The iPad sold 3.27 million in its first 12 weeks. Apple said the Watch outsold the iPad in its first 9 weeks. That suggests to me something between 2.5-3 million. That said, this estimate makes a lot more sense than Gene Munster's 1.2 million at $550. That doesn't even account for the $956 million increase in "Other" revenue, which Luca Maestri said the Watch's revenue exceeded.
 
  • Like
Reactions: kdarling and V.K.
The ASP should be higher. According to Slice it's around 485$ for watch+bands. one can doubt their absolute numbers but I don't see any reason to disbelieve their ASP estimate as they did have a huge sample. in view of this estimates around 3 million are more realistic. if they had sold 4 million at 485$ ASP just the Watch revenue would be almost 2 billion. Given that the whole Other category revenue is 2.6 billion that's pretty much impossible.

To be fair, Slice users are probably more sophisticated than average users and so probably buy higher end, or buy a second strap, more than the general public. I could believe both figures are true --- the "mass market figure" AND the Slice "this is the average over our users" figure.
It's feasible, I think, for Slice to extrapolate from the number of their users to expected sales for the public, because they have comparable figures from the past (how many sales of iPads, iPhones, Macs, etc they saw, compared to overall sales in each quarter), although there's still some guessing about how representative is the average Slice user; but it's a harder problem to try to guess how Slice user "watch quality levels" map onto the general population.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Benjamin Frost
So basically by your logic the watch is a failure and Cook is "lying" because demand was so high that Apple couldn't fulfill it? OOOOKKKK.....

Has reading comprehension and common courtesy totally disappeared these days?

I said nothing about failure or success. That's entirely up to the beholder. Personally, I've already posted that I thought it did okay for this product category.

I'm simply pointing out that all the articles copying each other, citing iPad sales as the comparison number, are mistaken.

As for Cook's phraseology, there's no doubt that it...like other comments on the call.. was carefully crafted in preparation for the inevitable Watch sales questions that came up. Anyone who's listened to these calls for years, knows that they're a very rehearsed show designed to put the best face on everything.
 
Last edited:
Has reading comprehension and common courtesy totally disappeared these days?

I said nothing about failure or success. That's entirely up to the beholder. Personally, I've already posted that I thought it did okay for this product category.

I'm simply pointing out that all the articles copying each other, citing iPad sales as the comparison number, are mistaken.

As for Cook's phraseology, there's no doubt that it...like other comments on the call.. was carefully crafted in preparation for the inevitable Watch sales questions that came up. Anyone who's listened to these calls for years, knows that they're a very rehearsed show designed to put the best face on everything.

Oh don't be disingenuous. You know exactly the impression your words were calculated to make (since you're a self-proclaimed expert in parsing words). Don't complain when people interpret your words exactly the way you meant them to be interpreted.

I understand your claim that you're trying to explain certain technical issues to the masses, but if that IS your goal, you did a lousy job. For example you failed to provide any evidence for the claim that "sales in June means delivery in June of an internet sale in April". Are you claiming that this is a legal requirement? A standard convention (which Apple may or may not be following)? Or simply the way they did things at your old company, and which you imagine is common practice?
A comment that claims to be providing technical enlightenment, not just flamebait, has to actually provide that enlightenment. I'm not trying to be rude; I'm trying to clarify why your comment got my goat up.
 
Umm... yeah because the smart watch market it HUGE... :rolleyes:

I just opened up a lamb and tuna fish shop now I have the market cornered...

The watch is terrible.... terrible....
Not true. The watch is great... great...
BTW, the lamb and tuna fish shop sounds very silly. Any customers yet?
 
  • Like
Reactions: flur
I understand your claim that you're trying to explain certain technical issues to the masses, but if that IS your goal, you did a lousy job.

You're right. Sometimes I forget that people have not kept up with basic explanations that have been made dozens of times here over the years.

For example you failed to provide any evidence for the claim that "sales in June means delivery in June of an internet sale in April". Are you claiming that this is a legal requirement? A standard convention (which Apple may or may not be following)? Or simply the way they did things at your old company, and which you imagine is common practice?

It is a legal requirement that Apple has bound itself to in its SEC 10-K filings. This has been explained many times before, so you're not the first to be unaware of it.

You can search for "sales shipments sec" in the forums, or simply read this post I made on the topic a while back.

A comment that claims to be providing technical enlightenment, not just flamebait, has to actually provide that enlightenment. I'm not trying to be rude; I'm trying to clarify why your comment got my goat up.

Now who's being disingenuous :)

If you didn't understand something that basic, then the polite thing to do is ASK, not assume and attack.

But I admire your wordmanship nonetheless, just as I can technically admire the way that Apple so often meticulously phrases things in very clever - though yes, also very deceptive - ways.

(My favorite recent example: Apple claiming its watch case is thinner than it really is, by only citing the "case thickness" and ignoring the crystal and sensor sections above and below the metal part, a measurement that other watchmakers do not fail to include.)
 
Umm... yeah because the smart watch market it HUGE... :rolleyes:

I just opened up a lamb and tuna fish shop now I have the market cornered...

The watch is terrible.... terrible....

Well, if your lamb and tuna shop made millions of dollars, then it would not be such a bad idea. I know that millions of dollars is small change for Apple, but most other companies would love to come out with something "terrible.... terrible" if it netted them a nice profit. Heck, Xiaomi is operating on razor-thin margins -- I'm sure they would be more than happy to release something as "terrible.... terrible" as the Apple Watch. But hey, NachoGrande, I'm sure that Apple could learn a thing or two from you.
 
The apple watch is for people with time on their hands....so that they can glance at it rather than engage in the laborious process of pulling out the phone, which for many will be out and in use much of the time regardless.
WRONG! :rolleyes:

I've no time on my hands, which is why I got the watch. Those with their phones out all the time are staring at those phones. They can't leave them alone—I've seen it. People at a dinner table staring down at the their phones rather than talking to each other. They walk with heads bent over the phone, text while riding bikes and driving. That doesn't happen with the watch. You can get work done, you can walk (and quickly see a message then walk again) without bumping into people. You can lunch without the phone distracting you from the person you're talking to. And you don't drop or forget where you put the watch.

But I"m not surprised by your completely wrong-headed assumption. It's what most think who haven't used the watch. Everyone I know who has a watch will tell you that you've got it backwards. Those who have time on their hands put out their phones—so they never miss a tweet, Instagram photo, game move or text. Those of us with little time for any of that—who don't want to be distracted yet still be alerted to an important message...we get the watch. It FREES us from the distractions of the phone and gives us more time to be productive.
 
Last edited:
There are about 15 devices that I own and aren't on my list. As you can see I haven't updated it in quite some time... But yes I own a 42mm Sport black/black.
Wow... this escalated quickly...

Not that I agree with your assessment of the Watch, but I do disagree with the sliming heaped on you for your opinion stated earlier. (Actually, not sure if it had sarcasm in it, but giving you the benefit of the doubt... but even if it didn't, I don't think I'd convince you to my side by calling you an idiot, or doubting your integrity.)
 
The apple watch is for people with time on their hands.

Yet another device to troubleshoot, update, search out apps for, ensure is fully synchronized with the phone, iPad and Mac, so that they can glance at it rather than engage in the laborious process of pulling out the phone, which for many will be out and in use much of the time regardless.
Actually, it's for people with time on their wrists!

(ba-dum-dum...)
 
  • Like
Reactions: Benjamin Frost
I don't think they offered accessibility options for people who prefer their watches on the right wrist either.

You make it sound like people like me that wear a watch on the right arm (I do because I'm left-handed) are disabled in some way. (It wouldn't be the first time I was treated like I was disabled for being left-handed.)

Perhaps you meant "usability", as opposed to "accessibility," because the latter is often used in place of the former by mistake. Anyway, I'm inclined to believe so ... I'm an optimist. :D
 
Last edited:
I said nothing about failure or success. That's entirely up to the beholder. Personally, I've already posted that I thought it did okay for this product category.

As for Cook's phraseology, there's no doubt that it...like other comments on the call.. was carefully crafted in preparation for the inevitable Watch sales questions that came up. Anyone who's listened to these calls for years, knows that they're a very rehearsed show designed to put the best face on everything.

I understand your claim that you're trying to explain certain technical issues to the masses, but if that IS your goal, you did a lousy job. For example you failed to provide any evidence for the claim that "sales in June means delivery in June of an internet sale in April". Are you claiming that this is a legal requirement? A standard convention (which Apple may or may not be following)? Or simply the way they did things at your old company, and which you imagine is common practice?

Apple's accounting policy for retail sales is to record the sale when the product is delivered to the customer. Since a lot of the pre-orders didn't ship until later, they were recorded as sales later on. That is a plausible explanation as to why sales in June exceeded those in May and April (and can help explain some of the discrepancy between Slice and Apple's comments), though to be fair, shipment times for the Sport and some of the lower priced Watch configurations dropped fairly rapidly, and most of the pre-orders from April were shipped by the end of May.

I do think the availability in stores will help sales, as Apple can now get impulse buys. I wouldn't be surprised to see some ads around the time of the iPhone 6S launch talking about how the Watch is the perfect companion to the iPhone.
 
WRONG! :rolleyes:

I've no time on my hands, which is why I got the watch. Those with their phones out all the time are staring at those phones. They can't leave them alone—I've seen it. People at a dinner table staring down at the their phones rather than talking to each other. They walk with heads bent over the phone, text while riding bikes and driving. That doesn't happen with the watch. You can get work done, you can walk (and quickly see a message then walk again) without bumping into people. You can lunch without the phone distracting you from the person you're talking to. And you don't drop or forget where you put the watch.

But I"m not surprised by your completely wrong-headed assumption. It's what most think who haven't used the watch. Everyone I know who has a watch will tell you that you've got it backwards. Those who have time on their hands put out their phones—so they never miss a tweet, Instagram photo, game move or text. Those of us with little time for any of that—who don't want to be distracted yet still be alerted to an important message...we get the watch. It FREES us from the distractions of the phone and gives us more time to be productive.

I saw somebody walk into a street lamp pole once because they were dinking around on their phone. The sound made me cringe, and by the way it did sound, I was surprised that they didn't get knocked out in the process.
 
What a flop...can people quiet down about this "failure" now?

Yes, lets declare it a success now, because when the next quarter's results show a drop in revenue you won't be able to say that.

When the tide goes out, we'll see who's wearing bathers. Let's see if Tim et al are claiming the sales are "supply constrained" or if that phrase suddenly disappears.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Benjamin Frost
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.