Apple Watch Captured Estimated 75% Smartwatch Market Share in Launch Quarter

[maxsix]

I say we'll have a much better idea of how solid the smart watch category is after the second gen Apple watch has been on the market for six months.

There's quite a few buyers I'm aware of that deliberately passed on Apples original. Largely a group of seasoned Apple users that are aware of how much better nearly every second gen Apple product is as compared to the original. If that holds true with the watch it ought to be interesting.

 

[kdarling]

I don't think it's as cut and dried as you claim. ...

Not just my claim, but that of major Apple analysts, and of Apple itself during the quarterly calls. I apologize that I don't have the spare time right now to try to bring you up to speed on this with years of references, but will try later on.

My guess is that the real phenomenon is what one might expect: The true believers bought an aWatch on the day online sales began, they got their watches during April and May, then their friends and colleagues saw the watches in action and started to realize that, damn, they also wanted one. In other words, word of mouth and seeing the device in action are proving to be potent sales tools.

Perhaps. If that had happened, I think the Slice data would've reflected it, especially since it's sourced by known shoppers.

I do agree that word of mouth will likely help somewhat going forward. I am in the group here who thinks of smartwatches like the iPad... I.e. as something that will take a while to prove itself attractive to non-early adopters.

Well, we know it is at least more than 3.27 million units.

See my post #97. Cook actually said something different than was widely (and mistakenly) reported.

 

[dec.]

I wonder how the "competition" thinks about this flop. The iPad did breathe new life into a product category that nobody cared for. Any success of the Apple Watch also would mean putting the spotlight onto the smartwatch category itself, which eventually all producers would benefit from - and yeah, eventually all competitors-added-up-together would outsell the Apple Watch, but for now there's really no big market, it's no wonder that Samsung absolutely suck and Pebble really is irrelevant as well, sales wise. Good for a start-up, but now I understand why they had to do the "we are pebble!"-Kickkstarter comfy thing a second time....

 

[kis]

75% of nothing is still nothing. And yes, it's a failure - they've failed to enter a new market and turn it mainstream, which normally is Apple's speciality. I own the AW and it plain sucks. Is it the best smartwatch out there? Probably - but seeing how utterly crappy all the other competitors are, this isn't saying much.

 

[Michael CM1]

And the stock is down.

Apple: "We made almost all the money!"

Wall Street analysts: "Yeah, but we wrote down on a cocktail napkin that you should have made all the money. Your stock shall now go down."

Apple: "What? But we just set a record third quarter for Apple. How is making more money than last year bad?"

Wall Street analysts: "See, you just don't get it. We read the Wall Street Journal and it's teeny, tiny print. We sit in a room and make big, important decisions because we are men of business. We then decide how much money you make without really researching it but instead just throwing some facts to the wall, seeing what sticks, and then picking a number that makes most of the lawn pigs not question our methods."

Apple: "Are you morons serious? Why did Microsoft's stock go down less than ours? They lost like $3 billion because Nokia is junk. The fact that they made $800 million on Surface is reported as good news, but we made $4.5 billion on iPads and that's bad news!"

Wall Street analysts: "Look, you're Apple. We're just going to keep telling you you're businessing wrong. We liked our BlackBerries. You stole them from us. Be glad we don't terminate you."

 

[SHNXX]

I'm quite happy with mine and have bought 4 as gifts.
I know that isn't typical but still, given that I'm a watch aficionado, I think the AW will appeal to the traditional watch market.

 

[gnasher729]

75% of nothing is still nothing. And yes, it's a failure - they've failed to enter a new market and turn it mainstream, which normally is Apple's speciality. I own the AW and it plain sucks. Is it the best smartwatch out there? Probably - but seeing how utterly crappy all the other competitors are, this isn't saying much.

If you look at the numbers posted, they increased the size of the market by a factor of five. They made over a billion revenue in a quarter, probably a few hundred million dollars profit in a quarter. How many companies are there that make as much profit in a quarter as Apple made from the Apple Watch? Not many. For comparison: Fossil Group (which would be comparable to a hypothetical "Apple Watch" company) made about $3.3bn revenue in the year. Ask their CEO if he considers himself and his company a failure, and he'll kick you so hard you'll never ask again.

 

[ds2000]

Seems good figures to me considering an awful lot of us aren't bothered by the watch. I hope it does well and apple keep improving it to eventually get my interest

 

[MH01]

What a flop...can people quiet down about this "failure" now?

Wearables are still a flop.

Having read so many debates about smart watches , yesterday I paid attention in public if people wore watches and how many smartwatches I could spot....... I found many more people with windows phones!! Smartwatches are so rare in the wild ! And this was London, Oxford street at lunch.

 

[MH01]

If you look at the numbers posted, they increased the size of the market by a factor of five. They made over a billion revenue in a quarter, probably a few hundred million dollars profit in a quarter. How many companies are there that make as much profit in a quarter as Apple made from the Apple Watch? Not many. For comparison: Fossil Group (which would be comparable to a hypothetical "Apple Watch" company) made about $3.3bn revenue in the year. Ask their CEO if he considers himself and his company a failure, and he'll kick you so hard you'll never ask again.

Wearables are still a flop. Spin the number and profit margins etc, wearables as a whole have failed to go mainstream. Heck more people own 3d TVs and that was a flop. Those numbers for s mainstream product are pathetic. Sure it's profitable, but nothing like a smartphone .

 

[MH01]

Nice! Let us know once you've sold 4 million units, quadrupling the size of the lamb and tuna market, and then we'll petition to get a MR article about you.

But he owns 100% of the lamb and tuna markert that was the point. apple only has 75% ......

 

[MH01]

I'm glad others are enjoying the Watch as much as I am.

It's all about convenience.

And that is the whole point.

If a smartwatch is for you, you have an awesome product in the Apple watch! Use it and enjoy it.

 

[MH01]

Clueless "analysts" continue to talk about what a "flop" the Apple Watch is

Enlighten us, what is the measure of success when launching a new product?

 

[paulsdenton]

The New York Times has an interesting article about the Watch today, July 23. Basically says they are (so far) executing the successful playbook for the iPod, iPhone and iPad.

 

[MH01]

My guess would be that it's because Android watches suck and they cost money. Once they suck less and samsung starts giving them away for free, I'm sure their market share will increase.

They do already, when you sign up for a contract they often have a deal that includes a smart watch, does not mean the buyer will use it.

You can buy smartwatches for such low prices, thoguh even that is not enticing people.

 

[MH01]

I'm not surprised that Apple is dominating. Samsung and other Android watch makers made it clear they didn't give a crap about women at all when they designed their watches. Or any people with smaller wrists. Even my 6ft 2 husband can't find some of their offerings comfortable or able to fit in with his business attire.

I don't think they offered accessibility options for people who prefer their watches on the right wrist either.

This is where apple shines, they get the design and usability nailed.

My only gripe, having owned the larger AW, it was still too small for me, I wish they offered even a larger size.

 

[MH01]

The New York Times has an interesting article about the Watch today, July 23. Basically says they are (so far) executing the successful playbook for the iPod, iPhone and iPad.

From a product launch point of view , I think they did a great job, and the amount they are investing into pushing the platform forward is fantastic. The problem the user base, most people do not wear watches these days. If they do it's mechanical.

 

[subjonas]

I come to MacRumors for the comments.
It just makes my day.

Hahah. I skip most articles because they aren't relevant to me, but I read at least the top rated comments of just about every article because (1) they usually highlight the one or two most important details of the article, and (2) they're usually entertaining for one reason or another.

 

[Michael CM1]

Wearables are still a flop. Spin the number and profit margins etc, wearables as a whole have failed to go mainstream. Heck more people own 3d TVs and that was a flop. Those numbers for s mainstream product are pathetic. Sure it's profitable, but nothing like a smartphone .

It's "nothing like a smartphone." Geez, does everybody who in some way doesn't want smartwatches to take off or is just Debbie Downer have to compare EVERYTHING to smartphones? Smartphones right now are such a unique category that it's insane to compare other things.

People were already moving toward only having mobile phones, and Apple took what BlackBerry had done and just blew it out of the water. It didn't happen overnight obviously since it took a year to get 3G, I think another year to get an App Store, then it really took getting to the iPhone 5 (the sixth year of the product) to hit a really mature product. The iPhone 5 had LTE, a larger display, a fairly rugged design and very good cameras. The LTE addition was really key because of how darn fast it is, faster in some areas than most of the wired connections I use.

My dad still has an iPhone 5. What REAL reason is there for him to upgrade even now? He doesn't mind the smaller screen since he uses his iPad way more. He isn't a data hog at all, so even faster LTE isn't a concern. The battery life is fine for him. He would use Touch ID, but it's not compelling enough to him for an upgrade.

So six years in Apple basically hit what I would call maturity on that product. Two years later you get the iPhone 6/6+ with Touch ID, NFC, etc. etc. that pretty much silenced all major complaints about the phone that aren't "I can't download widgets like I can with Android" or other such things.

Apple has the resources to slowly build watches up. Right now they're held back by cost, need of an iPhone 5 or above, battery life and lack of the so-called killer apps. But as the next couple of cycles go by, I'm sure we will eventually get a standalone model and perhaps work up to two or three days of battery life. There might be a sport model made for swimming. There will likely be a cheaper model at the low end -- probably just the previous model -- to make it more affordable. We have no clue what apps are going to come about, and some of these sensors rumored to be in there and that could possibly come later could make these game-changers in the health industry. I don't know how possible this is, but if this model or future models could read blood sugar and/or blood pressure accurately, it could put entire product lines out of business.

 

[AngerDanger]

But he owns 100% of the lamb and tuna markert that was the point. apple only has 75% ......

Yeah, it was hard to dither between the hypothetical situation and Apple's given how disparate they are. Owning a lot of something small is easy, and while the OP would capture 100% of a local market with no competitors, Apple has 75% of a global market despite competitors and the millions of sales required to gain their share.

 

[Solomani]

Umm... yeah because the smart watch market it HUGE...

I just opened up a lamb and tuna fish shop now I have the market cornered...

The watch is terrible.... terrible....

I wishta placeth an order of lamb sushi!

 

[MH01]

Yeah, it was hard to dither between the hypothetical situation and Apple's given how disparate they are. Owning a lot of something small is easy, and while the OP would capture 100% of a local market with no competitors, Apple has 75% of a global market despite competitors and the millions of sales required to gain their share.

Is the wearables market really that big to dwarf the OPs sales of lamb and tuna? Both are dominating .... But does the average consumer care about the OPs lamb and tuna shop and wearables?

Let's see how the ops lamb and tuna performs in the 2nd qtr...

 

[OllyW]

Is the wearables market really that big to dwarf the OPs sales of lamb and tuna? Both are dominating .... But does the average consumer care about the OPs lamb and tuna shop and wearables?

Let's see how the ops lamb and tuna performs in the 2nd qtr...

Moderator Note:

Ok, you've had your fun but stop it now or I'll start deleting posts.

Please bring the discussion back on-topic.

 

[AngerDanger]

Is the wearables market really that big to dwarf the OPs sales of lamb and tuna? Both are dominating .... But does the average consumer care about the OPs lamb and tuna shop and wearables?

My guess on both accounts is no.

Let's see how the ops lamb and tuna performs in the 2nd qtr...

You're on.

 

[MH01]

It's "nothing like a smartphone." Geez, does everybody who in some way doesn't want smartwatches to take off or is just Debbie Downer have to compare EVERYTHING to smartphones? Smartphones right now are such a unique category that it's insane to compare other things.

People were already moving toward only having mobile phones, and Apple took what BlackBerry had done and just blew it out of the water. It didn't happen overnight obviously since it took a year to get 3G, I think another year to get an App Store, then it really took getting to the iPhone 5 (the sixth year of the product) to hit a really mature product. The iPhone 5 had LTE, a larger display, a fairly rugged design and very good cameras. The LTE addition was really key because of how darn fast it is, faster in some areas than most of the wired connections I use.

My dad still has an iPhone 5. What REAL reason is there for him to upgrade even now? He doesn't mind the smaller screen since he uses his iPad way more. He isn't a data hog at all, so even faster LTE isn't a concern. The battery life is fine for him. He would use Touch ID, but it's not compelling enough to him for an upgrade.

So six years in Apple basically hit what I would call maturity on that product. Two years later you get the iPhone 6/6+ with Touch ID, NFC, etc. etc. that pretty much silenced all major complaints about the phone that aren't "I can't download widgets like I can with Android" or other such things.

Apple has the resources to slowly build watches up. Right now they're held back by cost, need of an iPhone 5 or above, battery life and lack of the so-called killer apps. But as the next couple of cycles go by, I'm sure we will eventually get a standalone model and perhaps work up to two or three days of battery life. There might be a sport model made for swimming. There will likely be a cheaper model at the low end -- probably just the previous model -- to make it more affordable. We have no clue what apps are going to come about, and some of these sensors rumored to be in there and that could possibly come later could make these game-changers in the health industry. I don't know how possible this is, but if this model or future models could read blood sugar and/or blood pressure accurately, it could put entire product lines out of business.

The smartphone example was apple choosing a product that people needed to have , a mobile phone and redefining it.

A wearable? It's like a 2015 version of the calculator watch .... Some people will love it.

I hope apple persists with it, in time it might become a great product, to be honest it's an awesome product now, but having bought 2, I disliked the concept of the wearable and not the AW itself, my iPhone did everything better, and was much more useable. My fitness band has notifications and fitness features.