I am afraid you don't know exactly what you are talking about. For your information, the swiss watch business in value is made for 90% of watches with retail price higher than 1000$, the opposite in volume ! Millions of watches represent 10% of the value, and only 2 million watches represent 90% of this 30 billions $ business. So basically the AW is a concern for only 10% of the swiss watch business in value. And a watch is considered as a luxury watch when its retail value is > 1000$, its not the case for almost all AW.
Now looking at what is going on with swiss watch exports : up 3.3% in june 2015 vs y-1 to reach 1.9 billions swiss francs (export value), more or less the same amount in $. Up 0.4% on the 1st semester 2015 vs y-1. If you look at the value category, the low value watch segment, that is 200$ or less is up 8.1%, and this is export value, it means that the retail value worldwide is 3 to 10 times higher than the export value, so basically in the range of the average price of the AW (250-1000).
And precious watches (gold) +5.1% in june.
Don't expect any influence in the near future on the swiss watch export due to AW because it's simply not the same business

Currency volatility, crisis in China, Oil crisis (less money in middle east, a big customer), crisis in Russia, etc... are the reasons why the swiss watch business could be slowing down, like any other export oriented business...
You should rather compare to Samsung watch, and all the other competitors of the AW.