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Discussion in 'Apple Watch' started by Zirel, Aug 7, 2015.
Interesting. One month of data is hardly enough to make this assumption although it is very intriguing.
Let's give it a few years lol
I think they are on the right track though with stating that the lower mid tier is in danger more than anything else.
I can't grasp the fact that watches like Rolex, Omega or AP will get hurt by this dramatically. Idk
Only time will tell (pun intended) lol
Did you click the link provided by OP?
Here is title of linked provided, may need to be biggest drop in 20 years to count as impact.
"Apple Helps Push U.S. Watch Sales to Biggest Drop in Seven Years"
Audemars Piguet buyers are a complete different breed from Rolex and Omega.
Many buyers buy expensive watches not because they appreciate or desire them, but for peer pressure.
The relatively inexpensive, but much more reasonable and functional Apple Watch fills the space on your wrist.
This is not Apple. Swatch has been complaining about the removal of the CHF/EUR cap that happened some months ago as the Euro continued drifting down. The SNB had been buying tons of Euro to prevent the Swiss Franc to go higher, as a huge part of Switzerland's exports go to the Eurozone, tourism suffers, and the Swiss shift more of their regular shopping to the other side of the border.
But it seems the economy has adapted to the higher Swiss Franc for the most part. The most notable complaints remain in the tourism sector.
Yeah I did and I read the site and watched the video.
My point being that just one month of numbers doesn't mean anything. Next month it could be the complete opposite. If this persists for a few more months then yes I will confidentially say that it's because of the AW and that's the trend moving forward but you can't say that for sure over one months data. Not me at least.
Although I do hope it happens. Cause I love my watch and wear it everyday. This would mean more competition. Lower prices. More updates. Newer hardware. Which is great for us.
I'm just saying. One month can't and won't determine that for sure.
I wouldn't say a complete different breed. I would say someone who buys a Yachtmaster II is someone that may buy an AP.
Meaning they can both be perceived as being very high end watches.
My point being that I don't know that the AW can take sales from Rolex or AP even though they are slightly different. But I think the Watch can succeed greatly in the 100-1000$ range.
Just my thoughts.
Let me try say it differently, hypothetically, if you have a business, in 30 days, you lost more $$ than you ever had for 7 year, and you are not worry about it, you tell yourself it is only 30 days not big deal?
Dude, the adjustment was unprecedented. The Swiss Franc spiked 30% against the Euro and settled at 15% more expensive than the historic level.
Hypothetically, I never said I'm not worried about it. Who cares if I'm worried about it lol. All I'm saying is that after 30 days if that was my business I wouldn't jump ship and close and panic. I'd research and do my due diligence before changing something that's been successful for the past 7 years. and actually my own cosmetic manufacturing business which has been successful for the past 18 years, although with many bumps in the road, can prove that.
All I'm saying, hypothetically of course, is I cant say 100% that this one month of data is going to persist and continue for the next few months. Comparing one month of data for mechanical watches is like saying the AW is a flop cause it sold only 3-4 million or whatever the number was. We don't know if it's going to be a flop yet because of one month.
I am glad you don't run my business.
One month is eternity for some business, if lost significant customer in that month.
Specially if I lost more customer than my past 7 years.
Lol okay I'm glad I don't run yours either.
Your key word "some" businesses. SOME. Not all. Especially when there is dollar adjustments happening.
I'm glad your post provided us with absolutely nothing. Instead of bickering and coming at other people just making their own point. Rosetta Stone might do you some good.
Again, well wishes!
??? Could you clarify again?
I'm too busy running my unsuccessful business to deal with children like you.
You are the reason why some of these forums are unbearable. Good day to you sir.
In the article it says that what is measured is not sales to consumers but to distributors, so the drop can be explained as resellers being cautious about the Apple Watch, not that people are switching to that.
Good days to you also. Happy birthday. Merry Christmas. Happy New Year.
Be positive, smile and be nice.
I am afraid you don't know exactly what you are talking about. For your information, the swiss watch business in value is made for 90% of watches with retail price higher than 1000$, the opposite in volume ! Millions of watches represent 10% of the value, and only 2 million watches represent 90% of this 30 billions $ business. So basically the AW is a concern for only 10% of the swiss watch business in value. And a watch is considered as a luxury watch when its retail value is > 1000$, its not the case for almost all AW.
Now looking at what is going on with swiss watch exports : up 3.3% in june 2015 vs y-1 to reach 1.9 billions swiss francs (export value), more or less the same amount in $. Up 0.4% on the 1st semester 2015 vs y-1. If you look at the value category, the low value watch segment, that is 200$ or less is up 8.1%, and this is export value, it means that the retail value worldwide is 3 to 10 times higher than the export value, so basically in the range of the average price of the AW (250-1000).
And precious watches (gold) +5.1% in june.
Don't expect any influence in the near future on the swiss watch export due to AW because it's simply not the same business Currency volatility, crisis in China, Oil crisis (less money in middle east, a big customer), crisis in Russia, etc... are the reasons why the swiss watch business could be slowing down, like any other export oriented business...
You should rather compare to Samsung watch, and all the other competitors of the AW.
Here is some fact:
Wristwatch market is $60billion business, $30billion more than what you think, and potential could be $95billion in 3 years. http://www.buzzfeed.com/sapna/apple-iwatch-could-be-at-heart-of-a-giant-new-industry#.yr64zNpg7L
Below is breakdown of market shared: http://www.statisticbrain.com/wrist-watch-industry-statistics/
Swatch Group 18.3 %
Richemont 15.7 %
Rolex 11.8 %
Fossil (USA) 5.2 %
LVMH / Bulgari (France) 4.7 %
Citizen (Japan) 3.9 %
Seiko (Japan) 3.4 %
Patek Philippe 3 %
Casio (Japan) 2.1 %
Audemars Piguet 1.7 %
Others 30.1 %
If AW could get 10% of Swatch, Fossil, Citizen, Seiko, Casio, & other, they will have 6% market, and number 4 of wristwatch brand, which is 3.6billion revenue today, or potentially $5.7billion in 2018.
Edited: By the way, electronic watch market shared is 23%, so if AW could get 25% of that but have no impact to mechanical watch market share which is not likely, that will still be approx. 6%, and make Apple #4 wristwatch brand in the world.
As mention above, Swiss luxury watch sales are likely down for a variety of reasons totally unrelated to the Apple Watch, or any smart watch. The decline was a trend way before the Apple Watch even appeared. But leave it to an Apple fan to extrapolate a pre-existing shift into an Apple triumph. lol.
Minus Swatch 10% of Fossil, Citizen, Seiko, Casio, & other still is 4.4%, #6 brand, 2.6billion, which is not bad at all.
My point is revenue reduced could be the combination of a lot of reason, but wristwatch revenue is very very wide spread in different level, from cheap to luxury, from mechanical to electronic. AW will continue make impact to wristwatch market, from $$$ revenue point of view.
Next major step is to allow more native SW when watchOS2 release, which will certainly make a major differentiation from functional/daily-life-impact point of view to mechanical watch, 100/1,000/10,000 native complication in AW vs 1/2/3.
Swatch brand is 800 million, 10% of it would be 80 million.
Read again from my link provided, Swatch group annual is "8.8billion" you are off by 8billion.
Watch Market Leaders by Sales Revenue Annual Revenue
Swatch / Omega annual sales $8,880,000,000
Also my 2nd calculation is based on
60billion * (10% * (Fossil (USA) 5.2 % + Citizen (Japan) 3.9 % + Seiko (Japan) 3.4 % + Casio (Japan) 2.1 % + Others 30.1 %)) = 60billion * 4.46% = 2.676billion
Keep in mind that many of us have stopped wearing our wristwatches thanks to the iPhone so one can't simply attribute this to the Apple Watch.
However, Swiss manufacturers' assertion that the AW isn't a threat and will help spur sales by getting young people into the habit of wearing a watch is simply wishful thinking. Those young people would view traditional watches the same way as we do dumbphones, and none of us would consider going back to a dumbphone. Even if they like the idea of owning a luxury timepiece when they're able to afford it later in life, dropping several thousand of dollars on a mechanical watch that they'd wear only once in a while (as opposed to daily in the absence of AW) is a tough pill to shallow.
No, you don't know what Swatch means. I will give you 100 million more for 10% of Tissot.