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The fact is that in 5 years time each of those 2000 Rolex's sold daily will still be worth virtually the same then as they do today, whereas those Apple watches will essentially be worthless

Yes, so someone who bought a Rolex watch today will probably not buy one in five years but someone who bought an Apple watch today will probably buy another within five years.
 
The fact is that in 5 years time each of those 2000 Rolex's sold daily will still be worth virtually the same then as they do today, whereas those Apple watches will essentially be worthless

This is a fact? Seems more like a guess. Maybe a guess based on many years of experience and data. But markets go up and down. No investment is guaranteed.

I suspect wearing a computer on your wrist will prove to be useful and this will be another category that software eats. So my guess is that luxury watches do not retain their value over the next five years and it will get worse in the five years after that.

I think it will take about five years before it is common to wear a smartwatch. The tech and the design needs to improve. Also we need more Internet of Things in the world (like locks on doors that respond to your watch). But I think this will happen and mechanical watches will be taking up too valuable a piece or real estate with only limited functionality.
 
Seems as good a time as any to bring these comments up:

Next time, maybe be a little more humble.

Next time, you should quote the entire paragraph instead of only quoting the part that supports your argument.

MacRumors said:
Even with the steep decline following the start of pre-orders, Apple Watch sales are easily outpacing early sales of the iPod and iPhone, and slightly topping those of the iPad, although Apple's continually increasing user base since the debut of those devices gives the company momentum for each subsequent product family launch.
 
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Stop already

These so called experts can't even agree on opening sales. Some say as little as one million others as much as 2.5 million. How many potential buyers said rather than go through Angela's golden doors they would just wait until the watch was in stores? These experts have their heads inside their internal organs. I love my watch. I hate how I had to get it.
 
Who is Slice and why should we assume their analytics are accurate? How many people here allow them to analyze their email for purchase receipts?
 
If Apple keeps the path of 2.5M per quarter and sells 10M in the first year,

The article gives numbers for the US only, which is not the market where Apple dominates the most. So you can safely double them worldwide...
 
The fact is that in 5 years time each of those 2000 Rolex's sold daily will still be worth virtually the same then as they do today, whereas those Apple watches will essentially be worthless

While it may be true since the iWatch is a tech device and will no doubt be updated with newer features causing the initial buyer to buy another one, but don't discount the fact that a Rolex Geek will also buy multiple Rolex's over the coming years. If you think the consumer that buys a Rolex will buy only one then check your "FACTS".
 
Who is Slice and why should we assume their analytics are accurate? How many people here allow them to analyze their email for purchase receipts?

Understood on the analyzing of email concern. Scary.

Slice is package tracking app in the Appstore, like Deliveries. Except with Slice the app gathers the tracking info from your email and notifies you like Deliveries on package status.
 
The long wait time for deliveries and the lack of in-store sales probably put a lot of people off buying. It certainly put me off. I'll just wait and see when they come into the AppleStore. If it take too long I'll probably just skip it and wait for the next version. Not really all that bothered about a Watch that has to be paired with an iPhone to work. Might as well just look at my iPhone instead and save myself £600.
 
While it may be true since the iWatch is a tech device and will no doubt be updated with newer features causing the initial buyer to buy another one, but don't discount the fact that a Rolex Geek will also buy multiple Rolex's over the coming years. If you think the consumer that buys a Rolex will buy only one then check your "FACTS".

Learn how to read and comprehend. Where did I say anything about either an Apple Watch buyer or a Rolex buyer never buying another watch?
 
Yeah you can say that but it has nothing to do with why she posted.

Uh yes it does. My post is very relevant. She questioned another poster saying that no women are buying this watch because it was too big...blah blah blah. My point you missed was while women are in fact buying this watch they are greatly outnumbered mainly because it's a tech device.
 
I think return rate is also important but Apple will never tell. Of course if you have a iPhone you're going to be somewhat interested in a new gadget/accessory directly from the source. There is literally no penalty if you rent the watch for 14 days at a time. You get 100% back. Story would be different if they implement a restocking fee.
But because the watch is cheap to make they can still sale as a refurbished unit and make money. I wouldn't mind buying a refurbished SPORT for $250.
 
Whatever language is used, "fail" bomb" "disaster" "not as hot as the iPhone", I think what people really mean is that this product has less use and makes less sense than many Apple products that have been labeled as "fail". Newton, I'm talking to you.

Of course, the watch does live in a time where Apple has an ecosystem—and refresh excitement. Not to mention supply chain. So if a product doesn't do as well as planned, they simply refresh to boost numbers and build fewer.

The round watch will come and prices will be reduced. That will get a few more people to buy them, at least as a novelty item for their watch collection.
 
Disgrace of a launch!

The drop is sales is normal, obviously the first day pre order is going to be the biggest, but the reason why no one is buying now is because the launch is a complete disgrace! I have never seen such a disaster of a launch from Apple. I preordered day one at 12 am midnight, they said my order never went through, after calling customer relations and fighting over the fact that I had a confo number on my app but no confo email they said my order number was not valid, that it must of been from everyone trying to order online. So after having no choice I ordered another watch, this time got confo email saying shipping in July! my order delivery was moved up 3 days ago to 5-7 weeks, June 23rd - july 8th, meanwhile, if you order the same watch right now on their website, the delivery time is 4-6 weeks! its just been a horrible horrible experience! I will never order online again, if its not in stores like usually and I can't wait on the line to get it day one, I will just not get it at all until the shipping dates are normal. :mad::mad::mad::mad::mad:
 
Even though your history of sales is wildly inaccurate, it doesn't change the fact (aka my opinion) that the Apple watch is an unqualified success relative to the smartwatch industry as a whole. Basing the success or failure of a product on analyst's predictions is a losing proposition. One could argue it would be even more successful if the launch hadn't been fubar. Regardless, 30K a day is nothing to sneeze at.

BTW, the number you were looking for? 6.8 million. That's how many smartwatches were sold in 2014.;)

True, its not to the exact number but the majority of sources out there peg the history at between 700k and 800k sold.... never seen anything saying near 6.8M thats totally insane

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Uh yes it does. My post is very relevant. She questioned another poster saying that no women are buying this watch because it was too big...blah blah blah. My point you missed was while women are in fact buying this watch they are greatly outnumbered mainly because it's a tech device.

My wife has one and loves it!
 
Wall Street has predictions of 36 million sold in the first year so there will be pressure to sell a lot more then 2.5 million per quarter. With the 36 million prediction Apple really needs to get these things selling quickly. The story also says that is a conservative estimate compared to some so many are having very high expectations for this product.

http://www.cnet.com/news/apple-watc...illion-over-first-12-months-predicts-analyst/

So Apple (or any other company) should start selling based on Wall street analyst predictions?
Instead of: analyst predicts 36 million and company sells 10 million
maybe it's better to say: company sells 10 million and analyst predicted wrong.

.
 
Wall Street has predictions of 36 million sold in the first year so there will be pressure to sell a lot more then 2.5 million per quarter. With the 36 million prediction Apple really needs to get these things selling quickly. The story also says that is a conservative estimate compared to some so many are having very high expectations for this product.

http://www.cnet.com/news/apple-watc...illion-over-first-12-months-predicts-analyst/

I highly doubt Apple pays ANY attention to these analysts....
 
The fact is that in 5 years time each of those 2000 Rolex's sold daily will still be worth virtually the same then as they do today, whereas those Apple watches will essentially be worthless

They won't be if the analog market goes away and nobody wants them anymore. In 5 years, if smart watches get better and better, and they're must-haves for everyone, nobody will want to go back to view 'just the time'. They'll be just as important and valuable as a gramophone or a typewriter.
 
This is a fact? Seems more like a guess. Maybe a guess based on many years of experience and data. But markets go up and down. No investment is guaranteed.

I suspect wearing a computer on your wrist will prove to be useful and this will be another category that software eats. So my guess is that luxury watches do not retain their value over the next five years and it will get worse in the five years after that.

I think it will take about five years before it is common to wear a smartwatch. The tech and the design needs to improve. Also we need more Internet of Things in the world (like locks on doors that respond to your watch). But I think this will happen and mechanical watches will be taking up too valuable a piece or real estate with only limited functionality.

Everyone has opinions. I agree with Ani that these things are going to be paperweights in a couple of years and that elegant watches (Panerai, IMO) will never go out of style. In fact, I'm not even sure the Apple Watch needs to be a watch - because the important thing of these kinds of devices is that they touch your skin and can work with your body in an ambient, passive manner (like a fitbit).

What a smart watch vendor needs to do is persuade people that these things are disposable and upgradable because I think the surprising thing in the next few years will be the speed at which the sensors and actuators we want in these things evolves and need to be upgraded.

I'm waiting for Ray Kurzweil's day where the only actuators we need on these things is something plugged into our cerebral cortex.
 
The sheer power of marketing.

Has any other watch company spent near as much on marketing?

I really hope you are joking. Basically all premium watch brands do is marketing - they spend vast amounts more than Apple do. Every major sporting event is sponsored by one watch brand or another.

They have to do the marketing to keep the perceived value of their watches at the high levels they are, when in reality they cost fractions of the RRP to make.
 
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