Apple Watch Orders Estimated to Average 30,000 Per Day in U.S. After Initial Surge

[usarioclave]

Interesting guesses on rolex's margins:

http://www.quora.com/How-much-does-it-actually-cost-Rolex-to-make-a-watch

The one who was trying to back out LVMH's numbers guesses that a $2k rolex costs around $690. Some FT article guessed that they do around $5bn usd in sales/year, which is pretty amazing given their price points.

 

[Gasu E.]

Is not just about how much others have not sold, is how much has Apple wasted just to create the illusion that is a most have piece of technology.

Let's assume Apple sells 5M of these first generation watches at average $500 selling price each. That's $2.5 B. This seems conservative.

Let's assume Apple spends $100M promoting these. That seems generous.

That would mean promotional costs would be 4% of sales. That seems reasonable for a consumer product.

If you don't like those numbers, try your own.

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Sales of the PS3, Xbox 360 and Wii - look at those spikes and WAY downturned sales... what does that tell you?

November/December 2009, Wii sold 9+ million, but in February/March 2010, Wii sold 1 million. You need to watch the LONGER projections.

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Take a marketing course. Pay attention to the parts about seasonality and pent-up demand. Then post after you have enough background in which to make an intelligent comparison. Right down, your posts have the air of someone who has just discovered the sales chart.

 

[jacobj]

Let's estimate an extra $10B revenue for watch in its first year (global sales). I think that may be conservative.

That is insane. I have an Apple watch on my wrist right now and it isn't the ground shifting thing that we want it to be, but it is bloody convenient. I would never buy an expensive one, but believe that the £350 I spent was worth it.

 

[BrerBear]

Wall Street has predictions of 36 million sold in the first year so there will be pressure to sell a lot more then 2.5 million per quarter. With the 36 million prediction Apple really needs to get these things selling quickly. The story also says that is a conservative estimate compared to some so many are having very high expectations for this product.

http://www.cnet.com/news/apple-watc...illion-over-first-12-months-predicts-analyst/

One Morgan Stanley analyst =/= Wall Street
Plenty of other analysts predict much lower sales than that.

 

[bh85]

Main contributor to drop in sales is supply of Apple Watches. People like to see it and feel it before they buy it. Big fans of Apple are the early adopters of a new products. That can be seen on first day. I ordered it on first day and I didn't like the wait time. I almost canceled my order because I was pissed. I stuck with it and I waited and I am happy now. Now I want to order another watch, but wait times are still long, so I'm holding off until they catch up. That's another contributing factor to lower sales after the launch. I would of preferred to buy it in store like best buy, or at apple store on launch day, but you cant do that yet. There is another reason for lower sales. Once the supply catches up and they have available stock, then you can run stats and see if demand is dropping down.

 

[bingeciren]

None of what you mentioned would be a reason for someone to buy an Apple Watch. It serves as an extension to an iPhone. If someone keeps their 6Plus in a bag or in their pocket and it's not easily reachable or convenient the Apple Watch will take care of much of their daily functional tasks generally done on their iPhone. None of those watches you mentioned will satisfy any of the needs for this type of consumer.

Well, it depends.

If the Apple Watch Edition is the choice, then obviously the technical aspects of the watch is not the main priority here, and in that case any of the luxury brands I mentioned will be in the same league.

However, if the technical aspects of the Apple Watch is the main priority, i.e. its ability to display sports related data as well as being an extension of the iPhone, then check out the Garmin Vivoactive. It does pretty much what the Apple Watch does, plus the ability to store your GPS track data.

So, I stand by my argument and unless adding another Apple device to the collection is not the prime criteria, I see no compelling reason to prefer the Apple Watch over to any of the alternatives available.

 

[tongxinshe]

So basically Apple will sell over 16x the number of smart watches than every other company combined and some will still deem it a failure.

Yes. Even you combine the whole "smartwatch" market together, it would only be at a "failure" level for a company of Apple's size. It's a failure because the current packaging method of so-called "smartwatch" is only a joke, just like it was a joke for those "smartphone" before iPhone calling themselves "smartphone".

 

[kdarling]

I highly doubt Apple pays ANY attention to these analysts....

Apple itself often quotes some of the analysts, both to brag when the analysts say Apple devices are selling well, and to point out overall market downturns when Apple devices don't sell well.

True, its not to the exact number but the majority of sources out there peg the history at between 700k and 800k sold.... never seen anything saying near 6.8M thats totally insane.

The smaller number you have stuck in your mind from reading it somewhere, was only the estimated number of Android Wear watches sold in the latter part of 2014.

There's other kinds of smartwatches. Pebble, Samsung Tizen watches, Garmins, stock Android brands, etc.

Details in articles are important, especially types, time periods and geographic areas.

 

[mrboba1]

I laugh at the one guy's graph (I won't quote him/her) with the 1.5M 1st day sales then 30k avg after... because if they could only have kept up that 1.5M/day rate, otherwise it's a failure right? That's only a half a billion watches in a year.

Also, people are missing one very important point...

No one can yet walk into an Apple Store and walk out with a watch.

 

[NT1440]

Who says it's going to stay at 30k per day? It's more than optimistic to assume this is going to be constant for the next 7 months.

Well...seeing as there is the entire rest of the world that still hasn't had a rollout yet..........

Do you see what I'm getting at?

 

[ThunderSkunk]

I will wear a watch the day watches become powerful enough to take over the role of an iPhone as the central always-on hub of personal mobile computing,thus rending all other devices unnecessary.

Until then, this remote display accessory is just another trinket to sell to teenagers, sucking resources away from other areas in dire need of innovation in their product line.

 

[daftpunker909]

Well...seeing as there is the entire rest of the world that still hasn't had a rollout yet..........

Do you see what I'm getting at?

Well...seeing as this is an article about the US orders I am commenting on the US prediction.....

Do you see what I'm getting at?

I can be presumptuously smug as well

 

[usarioclave]

Until then, this remote display accessory is just another trinket to sell to teenagers, sucking resources away from other areas in dire need of innovation in their product line.

Given the price point of the watch, it's for teen-agers at heart, not teen-agers.

 

[currentinterest]

I have found the Apple Watch to be indispensable. I find I use my phone significantly less than before. My wife, who dislikes most tech, loves hers. This will be a huge product for Apple. Once supply is improved the numbers will rapidly accelerate. They will sell as many as they can make; that is the only ceiling. Demand is not the issue here.

 

[bbeagle]

The Wii's launch was relatively benign. It gained critical mass later.

You couldn't FIND a Wii anywhere the first year of the launch. People lined up at stores whenever they got shipments - those shipments were usually only 10-20 units. It was nowhere near 'benign'.

 

[NT1440]

Well...seeing as this is an article about the US orders I am commenting on the US prediction.....

Do you see what I'm getting at?

I can be presumptuously smug as well

I'm not sure why sales need to stay at 30,000 a month in the USA for the watch to be a success? Any dip in orders in the USA will definitely be overwhelmed by other countries as the rollout continues. Who gives a damn about the artificial (and superficial) constraint of US sales?

 

[Lictor]

don't discount the fact that a Rolex Geek will also buy multiple Rolex's over the coming years.

Moreover, a watch can fall out of fashion. For instance, here, Rolex has been ridiculed by about every comedians for years. People who had one probably had to buy another brand if they wanted to wear a watch in some social circles without being made fun of.

 

[spiderman0616]

Easy to fix. Only use an email address that gets shipment emails, nothing else.

By the way how does Deliveries get your tracking number?

If you have copied a number to your clipboard, it instantly detects it when you open Deliveries.

 

[seb101]

Hublot Big Bang Black Ceramic. Because:

Ceramic body is light, does not scratch or mar, stands to every day wear and tear very well.

Automatic movement is accurate and needs no winding or batteries to replace.

Waterproof

Simple, inconspicuous yet elegant.

Hublot Big Bang... inconspicuous? Lol. Maybe if your idea of an 'inconspicuous car' is a black Hummer H3.

 

[Keirasplace]

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This is pretty telling.

Yes, pretty telling they'll have 10-12M by the end of the year in the US alone, because you know... Christmas.... And Iphone 6s sales. But, hey, whatever. They'll probably have 99% of industry profit too. Poor them.

 

[Will do good]

So even though Apple Watch sales taper off, the success of Apple depends on the failure of others?

Interesting logic. Glad you aren't managing my portfolio.

What between line are you reading from me that wasn't there?

 

[uberzephyr]

BTW, the number you were looking for? 6.8 million. That's how many smartwatches were sold in 2014.

http://www.smartwatchgroup.com/top-10-smartwatch-companies-sales-2014/

Take a look at the article - a fair number of those 6.8M units classified as "SmartWatches" are some version of a fitness band, with minimal or sometimes no display. That may be a perfectly valid definition for the market segment, at least according to SmartWatchGroup, but it's going to skew the ASP and volume numbers, and really has no direct bearing on competition with the AppleWatch. Kinda like lumping all the $100 Android feature phones in with the $700+ Androids and then comparing market share. More meaningful would be iPhones vs. Galaxy/Note/HTC One/(etc) market share numbers. I don't think Apple cares about the Watch's market share compared to that of a fitness band.

 

[bingeciren]

Hublot Big Bang... inconspicuous? Lol. Maybe if your idea of an 'inconspicuous car' is a black Hummer H3.

Inconspicuous in a sense that it is black, not glaring gold, plain and from a distance does not cry out as a flashy watch.

But I see what you mean

 

[JustThinkin']

And I suppose liars can still figure.


The headline says 30,000 per day, but the graph shows less than 20,000 per day now.

 

[dannyyankou]

I can't tell if the pessimism in this thread is sarcastic or not. That averages to 2.7 million watches per quarter. Add on top of that the first 2.5+ million ordered the first five weeks. Not bad for a first gen product...