Apple Watch Predicted to Capture 50% Market Share in 2016 on 14 Million Sales

[name99]

I know I'll end up getting one, as the appeal of health tracking with an integrated device makes a lot of sense, but I have had a hard time just thinking about giving up wearing my automatic watch, that has been on my wrist for the past 11 years and never failed me.

I'm hoping Apple can eek out some additional battery life with their next iteration, so that I don't have to think about charging it every night. Maybe they could add in an automatic rotational charger to provide a bit more life to the Watch and create a hybrid mechanical / electronic Watch.

There is a crazy level of uneality in what people

Siri can't take notes on the Apple watch? For shame! Why can't apple just add everything that matters - I hate this trickle down effect. The ONLY purpose of a watch should be to replace redundant functions of a phone. If that is going to be the case, then we need all those features now. Not that hard to do, since they're simple tasks. But instead they're busy putting a camera into the band.

Have you ever written software, especially system software? Do you have any idea how difficult it is, especially in a resource constrained environment?
You think something like "take audio notes" is a trivial operation, but think it through. The watch's primary constraint right now is that it must retain power for a day (even under heavy use conditions, like a lot of exercise tracking) otherwise people will be furious. Part of hitting that power goal is that pretty much everything on the watch apart from sensors and some radio shuts down as soon as the screen goes dark --- pretty much always.

This is obviously not ideal --- it means, for example, that right now an app can perform no background processing of any sort. AND it means that, as the OS is currently constructed, the low-level facilities (inside the scheduler and the power management code) simply aren't there to support additional various special cases where it would make sense for (in this case) screen goes black, radios go off, but what stays alive? Mic obviously, speaker no?, CPU? (or can you do everything necessary in the audio part of the SoC?) You see the point?

Look at what has happened (and continues to happen) with iPhone iOS. Every year Apple considers a few new sensible use cases and implements the code to allow them to happen while ALSO not impacting the UI experience. First IOS no apps. Then apps but no background activity. Then very restricted background activity. Then letting up various constraints on background activity. We're at WatchOS 2. Things will be very different by the time we hit WatchOS 9 --- but getting there takes time, not because Apple hates you, but because doing things well is HARD.

That's the Apple way. If you want the alternative experience (things get added half-assed, sure they're available but your device may or may not run hot, lose power rapidly, the service occasionally crashes, etc) that's available in Android. Plenty of people want that control --- good for them --- but to claim that Apple will better serve its existing customers by copying Android is just idiotic.

 

[e93to]

Now I'm thinking of buying one.

It would be very useful when it is difficult to check the phone and/or feel the vibration. For example, when I'm playing golf, I cannot feel the vibration of my phone. And when I'm driving, I can just glance at the watch when there is notification.

I didn't think there is use for smart watches but damn.... You win, Apple. YOU WIN...

 

[Mildredop]

If Apple have sold 14 million watches, I don't know why they're being so cagey about sales. I'd say that's impressive and way beyond what I expected.

I'm still yet to know anyone who owns an Apple watch and only rarely notice them on people.

 

[Thunderhawks]

Holding out for one that uses the finest Corinthian leather.

There has to be a duct tape version soon.

 

[Keirasplace]

I'm betting the actual sales will be over 20M; all depends what is in the Apple Watch 2.
If they use 16nm parts the battery life and performance would be much higher (Enough possibly to be able to add GPS for those that want it).

 

[hauntvictim]

I disagree. Like OllyW said above, when people compare it to iPhone sales they build an unrealistic expectation in their mind. Why anyone would make that leap in logic is beyond me. Watch sales should be compared to other watch sales; putting it into proper context. In it's market, smartwaches, it is the most successful product minus Fitbit. Considering it's starting price compared to the entirety of the category, flop is not the descriptor I'd use. Remember it's a gen 1 device. How does it stand up to gen 1 of the iPod, iPhone, or iPad? Perspective.

This is coming from someone who thinks the AW looks way too feminine and would never own one as it's currently designed. Regardless of my personal opinion of the watch's aesthetics, it's far from a flop.

By this logic, I agree with you. But also by this logic why hasnt Apple released sales figures?

 

[TMRJIJ]

By this logic, I agree with you. But also by this logic why hasnt Apple released sales figures?

They said they wouldn't even before the watch was out. It is in the other category with the iPod.

 

[69Mustang]

By this logic, I agree with you. But also by this logic why hasnt Apple released sales figures?

I don't know why they don't release figures. Could it be as simple as they have an internal threshold for sales numbers before an item gets a separate category? IDK.

 

[TMRJIJ]

Seen about five of them in person. The owners were bombarded by 20+ people trying to touch it. Apple products are officially deemed the cocaine in the tech world.

 

[Keirasplace]

If Apple have sold 14 million watches, I don't know why they're being so cagey about sales. I'd say that's impressive and way beyond what I expected.

I'm still yet to know anyone who owns an Apple watch and only rarely notice them on people.

14M worldwide in 2015 is not a lot, especially if your not around tech people or wealthy people a alot.
That's likely less than 0.5% of all people with smart phones, in the developped world, less than 1% and in the US where their sales were highest, less than 3-5%. Most of those sales likely on the coasts where percentage are still less than 5-6%.

Considering the cost and this being a fist iteration; wealthy gadget interested people are the most likely buyers.

If you are around those kind of people, I am, you see quite a bit of Apple Watches (and many other devices you don't see anywhere else).

Considering how inconspicuous the watches are in daily use, missing a few percent using them would be pretty easy.

 

[hauntvictim]

I don't know why they don't release figures. Could it be as simple as they have an internal threshold for sales numbers before an item gets a separate category? IDK.

I dont know either, but in March of 2012 Cook touted this:
(from TechCrunch)
Cook then put up his stunning graph. The iPad sold 15.4 million units last quarter. That was more than any PC manufacturer sold of their entire PC line worldwide. HP sold 15.1 million PCs. Lenovo sold 13 million PCs. Dell sold 11.9 million PCs. Acer sold 9.8 million PCs. A year from now, don’t be surprised if this gap is significantly wider.

 

[doelcm82]

"If these trends continue.......ayeeeeeeeeeee"

The point of the chart was not to predict the future sales of the Apple Watch (or even the future sales of the iPhone). It was to show that even as spectacularly successful product as the iPhone did not instantly jump to the stratosphere. Even the Apple Watch first year sales eclipsed the iPhone's first year sales.

As Apple improves the Apple Watch, I expect its numbers to go up. For a while.

 

[Mac 128]

Worldwide meaning they rolled out the AW in several waves. It's not like they were available in all countries all year long, thereby undercutting the prospective sales.

Calling it a pet project wouldn't satisfy the many pundits who'd only look at the latest generation iPhone and iPad numbers and declare it a flop based on that. Apple sold more AWs compared to the original iPad at launch (which is pretty good considering that the AW is not exactly "iPhone-free"), and I don't remember anyone calling the iPad a flop, at least as much as they did with the AW.

Yes they did come out in waves, but they were in most major markets by Christmas, and that's exactly the scenario Apple is setting up with the rumored September release of the Gen 2 watch. I'd argue that almost everyone who were going to buy an Watch worldwide, did so then. Sure there will be additional sales until the Gen 2 watch is released, but I would seriously doubt they will approach the initial launch year sales, waves of rollouts or no ...

The Watch is only a flop in relation to the potential market. No one knew what the potential market was for the iPhone or iPad. But as the Watch requires the iPhone, there's around 400 million potential customers worldwide, of which less than ~4% have purchased one. Great for any other business, poor for Apple.

The battery life of the Apple Watch is no issue.
Just charge it while you're sleeping.
At the end of a long day you'll have > 20% battery left. Easily.

Just charge it every night. Why is that so difficult?

Some people want to wear their watch to bed, of sleep tracking. Or perhaps a silent taptic alarm to keep from waking their spouse. Some don't want to have to think about it. Whatever the case, it's a personal choice. Longer battery life is better, regardless. Asking someone spending upwards of $1,000 to make compromises with their wrist wear is not really practical. That said, Apple is providing the ability to pair multiple watches with one iPhone which effectively solves this problem. Just swap out the day watch for the night watch, and then vice-versa in the morning. Problem solved. Allowing one watch to last multiple days with an alarm to remind the user to swap with a fully charged watch is even better.

If Apple have sold 14 million watches, I don't know why they're being so cagey about sales. I'd say that's impressive and way beyond what I expected.

I'm still yet to know anyone who owns an Apple watch and only rarely notice them on people.

I agree about sales figures. And I've yet to hear anybody adequately explain why actual sales data would give the competition an edge -- an oft cited excuse for the lack of this data being released.

 

[Uofmtiger]

Considering how inconspicuous the watches are in daily use, missing a few percent using them would be pretty easy.

I have had one since Christmas and no one has ever commented on it. The main reason is that it is long sleeve weather around here and my sleeves cover it most of the time. I bet people will notice more of them as the jackets and sleeves turn to polo shirts.

 

[Mac 128]

The point of the chart was not to predict the future sales of the Apple Watch (or even the future sales of the iPhone). It was to show that even as spectacularly successful product as the iPhone did not instantly jump to the stratosphere. Even the Apple Watch first year sales eclipsed the iPhone's first year sales.

As Apple improves the Apple Watch, I expect its numbers to go up. For a while.

While I don't agree with the Watch/iPhone comparison, I do with the point. Unfortunately, Apple isn't improving the Watch, according to rumor.

 

[x5tuu]

Genuinely all I want is a swimming tracking app ... I use it everyday for my 1-2km swim without issue and it does a great job monitoring heart rate but having to use the 'other' exercise category isn't great!

I probably will get the mk2 product to go with my Rose gold and Black sport models

 

[doelcm82]

While I don't agree with the Watch/iPhone comparison, I do with the point. Unfortunately, Apple isn't improving the Watch, according to rumor.

Where did you hear the rumor that Apple isn't working on an improved version of the Apple Watch?

 

[AndrewClarke]

Genuinely all I want is a swimming tracking app ... I use it everyday for my 1-2km swim without issue and it does a great job monitoring heart rate but having to use the 'other' exercise category isn't great!

I probably will get the mk2 product to go with my Rose gold and Black sport models

I know I keep saying it, but ... Garmin.
They have plenty of expensive watches that track swimming, since you seem to like spending money on watches.

 

[jonnysods]

A market to watch.

Haha nice one!

Seriously though, I'm ready to get the next revision!

 

[Mac 128]

Where did you hear the rumor that Apple isn't working on an improved version of the Apple Watch?

You've taken what I wrote out of context. The current rumor is that all Apple is releasing related to the watch at the March 21 Spring event, a year after they started selling (and 20 months after they announced) the Gen 1 Watch, are new watch bands, and possibly case colors/materials and partnerships.

I'm sure they are working on a gen 2 watch. They just aren't rumored to be releasing it a year after the first watch, with respect to sales increasing a year after the the first iPhone was released, following which they also released the gen 2 iPhone, and thus motivating sales growth.

 

[AppleScruff1]

I disagree. Like OllyW said above, when people compare it to iPhone sales they build an unrealistic expectation in their mind. Why anyone would make that leap in logic is beyond me. Watch sales should be compared to other watch sales; putting it into proper context. In it's market, smartwaches, it is the most successful product minus Fitbit. Considering it's starting price compared to the entirety of the category, flop is not the descriptor I'd use. Remember it's a gen 1 device. How does it stand up to gen 1 of the iPod, iPhone, or iPad? Perspective.

This is coming from someone who thinks the AW looks way too feminine and would never own one as it's currently designed. Regardless of my personal opinion of the watch's aesthetics, it's far from a flop.

You used the word logic. This is MacRumors.

 

[JayLenochiniMac]

Some people want to wear their watch to bed, of sleep tracking. Or perhaps a silent taptic alarm to keep from waking their spouse. Some don't want to have to think about it. Whatever the case, it's a personal choice. Longer battery life is better, regardless. Asking someone spending upwards of $1,000 to make compromises with their wrist wear is not really practical. That said, Apple is providing the ability to pair multiple watches with one iPhone which effectively solves this problem. Just swap out the day watch for the night watch, and then vice-versa in the morning. Problem solved. Allowing one watch to last multiple days with an alarm to remind the user to swap with a fully charged watch is even better.

Not to mention there are quite a few members on here who like to wear their AW to bed, and make do with the current battery by charging it while getting ready in the am and again in the evening right before bedtime. Even if Apple manages the double the battery life, they'd still charge their AWs during those two time slots.

 

[Michael Scrip]

BTW here is how many watches are sold worldwide ~1,200,000,000... So you can see how low 11.5 million truly is...

So I guess Android Wear's even lower 6 million makes it an even BIGGER flop...

Or Tizen at 3 million...

 

[sinsin07]

14M worldwide in 2015 is not a lot,

Comapred to what? Amount of people on the planet?

snip...especially if your not around tech people or wealthy people a alot.

Not entirely accurate.
It depends on where you live and how much you get around.
In NYC you may see Apple watch on fast food cashier's wrist, supermarket cashier, wholesale warehouse employee, just to name a few. Go out to the burbs and you can catch an employee at strip mall Starbucks rockin' one.
These are just a few of my anecdotal observations. MMV

That's likely less than 0.5% of all people with smart phones, in the developped world, less than 1% and in the US where their sales were highest, less than 3-5%. Most of those sales likely on the coasts where percentage are still less than 5-6%.

No comment. Numbers pulled out of thin air are not supportable.

Considering the cost and this being a fist iteration; wealthy gadget interested people are the most likely buyers.

Define wealthy. Without that the comment is moot.

If you are around those kind of people, I am, you see quite a bit of Apple Watches (and many other devices you don't see anywhere else).

Nonsense.
[doublepost=1458252752][/doublepost]

11.5 million is peanuts for a device that can be bought worldwide. ....
BTW here is how many watches are sold worldwide ~1,200,000,000... So you can see how low 11.5 million truly is.. .

Another ridiculous comparison.
How many of the ~1,200,000,000 are smart watches.

 

[AppleScruff1]

By this logic, I agree with you. But also by this logic why hasnt Apple released sales figures?

Logically, there really is no logic to this.