Apple Watch Sales Estimated at 3.9 Million in Third Quarter

[kdarling]

The Apple Watch is so far the fastest selling Apple product ever (fact), and it's going to be a blockbuster this coming holiday season.

How are you calculating that its the fastest selling Apple product ever?

E.g. in its first three quarters, the iPad sold 3.3, 4.2 and 7.3 million units.

IIRC, estimates for the Watch are around 2.7 to 3.6 million for its first quarter, and 3.9 million for its second, which puts it possibly slightly ahead and then slightly behind the iPad so far.

--

Oh. Are you perhaps repeating Cook's comment months back that the Watch's initial SELL THROUGH was higher than the iPad's?

That's just clever handwaving. Obviously the sell through to end users was higher for the Watch... not only because there was a much larger user base five years later, but because almost all of its initial sales were online to end users, whereas almost all of the iPad initial sales were to retailers (i.e. NOT "sell through").

Cook is well known for coming up with juicy tidbits like that during quarterly calls, where you have to listen closely to understand what he's actually saying. He knows full well that most reporters will drop half the comment and change the meaning. And sure enough, most reporters failed to include the "sell through" part or even think about what it meant.

 

[djcerla]

As a long term shareholder if your far fetched story plays out I'll win.



Conversely if gadget geeks can't get their circle of friends to drink the cool aid, well...

I've already enjoyed one massive profit taking experience. The huge bundle of shares I bought at just over $20 per share in early 1991, adding to annually, then selling years later at $700 is still a staggering thought.

Thanks Apple

I'm a shareholder too, since 2004, my "profit takings" have always resulted in bad decisions.

BTW what "kool aid" are you talking about?

How are you calculating that its the fastest selling Apple product ever?

E.g. in its first three quarters, the iPad sold 3.3, 4.2 and 7.3 million units.

IIRC, estimates for the Watch are around 2.7 to 3.6 million for its first quarter, and 3.9 million for its second, which puts it possibly slightly ahead and then slightly behind the iPad so far.

--

Oh. Are you perhaps repeating Cook's comment months back that the Watch's initial SELL THROUGH was higher than the iPad's?

That's just clever handwaving. Obviously the sell through to end users was higher for the Watch... not only because there was a much larger user base five years later, but because almost all of its initial sales were online to end users, whereas almost all of the iPad initial sales were to retailers (i.e. NOT "sell through").

Cook is well known for coming up with juicy tidbits like that during quarterly calls, where you have to listen closely to understand what he's actually saying. He knows full well that most reporters will drop half the comment and change the meaning. And sure enough, most reporters failed to include the "sell through" part or even think about what it meant.

IDC is not only always wrong, they're also ALWAYS grossly underestimating Apple sales, to make numbers look more acceptable to their clients (Microsoft and al).

I am a long time Apple shareholder and I'm able to read between the lines, don't worry. Watch sales will be enormous this coming holiday season.

 

[billy the fish]

Yeah, mine is part of the normal routine, on in the morning and off at bed time. Could I live without it? Sure but for notifications it's proven itself to be invaluable, just quick glances without ever having to touch the phone.

When you say invaluable, I suspect you actually mean handy..

 

[kdarling]

I am a long time Apple shareholder and I'm able to read between the lines, don't worry. Watch sales will be enormous this coming holiday season.

I'm sure they'll be good, especially if we see more price sales.

As for the future, I think that if Apple gets 5% of all its iPhone users to buy a Watch in the first year or two, that would be a great success.

The growth in general of smart wearables is following predictions made a few years back, where the number roughly doubles each year.

One statistic I'd love to know, is how many are still wearing their watch? The historical wearable rule is that by six months, half of smart device wearers have stopped doing so. It'd be interesting to see if the Apple watch fared better.

 

[billy the fish]

Funny, that. I think Apple Watch made all analogue watches look very, very old, overnight. And to say the SS Apple Watch looks "cheap" is just stupid. You may say it looks "plain" or "simple", if you must. But on the other hand, simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, you know. That's the difference, to me, in a nutshell. Your "chronographs" are poseurs; despite their complicated exterior screaming "look at me", they only have very few, very simple functions. The Apple Watch is understated, it looks like the simplest object, but does so much more. And up close, the materials and finish are very beautiful, making the whole object, in a (ivesian) word, essential.

Oxygen, food and water are essential. . itoys are not..

 

[ericgtr12]

When you say invaluable, I suspect you actually mean handy..

Fair enough, now that I look back it it seems a bit hyperbolic.

 

[luckysob]

Still holding out.

And the Gear S2 looks 100% better than Watch v1.0.

 

[Wiesenlooser]

I really would love to have one. But I just cannot justify the price for me :/

 

[Ron Johnson]

I love my apple watch and have had it since launch. It is a little overpriced for what it offers, because you cannot compare it to the price of high end watches.

- Apple needs to add a few things and they will sell much more. For one the fitness tracking and app need to be completely overhauled. It needs to be cutting edge software and have more accurate tracking. They need to make people WANT to track their fitness. The fitbit beats it in this aspect so far.

- They need to add a Gps in the watch for bikers etc.

- The apple watch app and the phone need to have more customizable features too. I for instance like they I get notifications on my watch, but I sometimes also want to have my phone go off the same as it would if the watch was not paired i.e. still lighting up the screen, ringing and vibrating.

 

[sdf]

Did you read ? Let me quote it : "Nearly two-thirds of Apple Watch owners and exactly half of Apple Watch Sport owners placed the device in a drawer, indicating that they may give it another shot at some point."

Plus " Only 18 percent of those Apple Watch owners and 24 percent of Apple Watch Sport owners sold the device, while a smaller proportion returned their devices to Apple. "

So how many owners are left wearing the watches?

read the start of the article. You'll figure it out.

OK, fine, I'll tell you. That's two thirds of those who were dissatisfied with the watch. Not all watch sales.

 

[billy the fish]

What is stopping people from holding onto their watches anyway? Just because a new one comes out doesn't mean they have to go out and automatically buy it

That's business model just destroys apples alternative year "S" handset sales..

 

[DevNull0]

I think most of them are spent on iPhone and the watch

Why do people on this forum love to pop up with totally irrelevant replies that have nothing to do with what is being discussed? If you actually read my post he's replying to, you'd see your little quip is totally out of context, and you missed the entire point.

 

[JimmyHook]

The funny thing is Android Wear hasn't come close to making a dent. Their watches are the largest product fails in human history.

 

[0098386]

I'm tempted to pick up a Fitbit once my Fuelband dies, seems like a nice natural progression. I want an Apple Watch but I'm probably going to wait a few years/generations for one.

 

[0098386]

Yeah, mine is part of the normal routine, on in the morning and off at bed time. Could I live without it? Sure but for notifications it's proven itself to be invaluable, just quick glances without ever having to touch the phone.

Exactly the reason I still use my Pebble too, that and its physical controls (makes it easier changing tracks without having to look at the watch). I like the concept of smartwatches but I really hope they find another killer feature besides notifications.

 

[paysdoufs]

If all you use it for is to tell time, then $200 is too much.

Well, it doesn't do a lot more than showing the time w/o an iPhone close by, does it?
Seriously - not even having put a GPS chip in there, when you market it as s fitness device, is just plain stupid.

 

[dec.]

I'm sure they'll be good, especially if we see more price sales.

As for the future, I think that if Apple gets 5% of all its iPhone users to buy a Watch in the first year or two, that would be a great success.

The growth in general of smart wearables is following predictions made a few years back, where the number roughly doubles each year.

One statistic I'd love to know, is how many are still wearing their watch? The historical wearable rule is that by six months, half of smart device wearers have stopped doing so. It'd be interesting to see if the Apple watch fared better.

That's a great question! How many people are wearing the Moto 360? are there any numbers available? How many people are wearing their Pebble? Are there any numbers availbable?

 

[Keirasplace]

Well, it doesn't do a lot more than showing the time w/o an iPhone close by, does it?
Seriously - not even having put a GPS chip in there, when you market it as s fitness device, is just plain stupid.

You don't have a CLUE. Go the Apple web page and please educate yourself. Bye.

 

[Mike MA]

Fitbit outsells Apple Watch? And something called Xiaomi equals Apple. Wow.

I'm sure by now you have read the complete analysis by IDC and now know they combined basic and smart wearables for their survey and though are not surprised anymore

 

[Darrin Bell]

Fitbit outsells Apple Watch? And something called Xiaomi equals Apple. Wow.

It makes sense to me. Apparently, more people want an activity tracker than a smart watch, and Apple Watch just can't match Fitbit as an activity tracker. Built-in gps, long battery life, automatically tracks your sleep... Apple may have a tough time luring Fitbit users until it can give us those three things.

 

[MacOG728893]

Why don't you just buy a heart rate monitor that interfaces with your iPhone for something like 50 bucks? Your readings will be more accurate and the price is much lower.

Simply put, because I want an Apple Watch. If I spend $50 for a heart rate monitor now, I'll end up buying an Apple Watch generation 2 anyways.

But you're right, if that's the only thing I was trying to do, that would make sense.

 

[Mainsail]

I just got back from the Apple Store. It was pretty crowded with holiday shoppers....but, not one customer standing at the Apple Watch Display/Table. For most people, I think it is just too expensive for what it does. Basically, it does very little unless you have an iPhone in your pocket. So, I think a lot of people just buy a cheaper fitness tracker and then use their phone for everything else.

I bought a Pebble for $99 earlier this year. (They were on sale for $69 during black Friday). It does the basic stuff: Notifications, Steps, Date/Time, Stopwatch, Calendar, Weather, Stock Quotes, Sports Scores....nothing fancy....5-7 day battery life.

If I need to do anything more complicated, I pull my iPhone out of my pocket.....no big deal. I can't imagine paying $400 for a watch that needs to be charged everyday. But, that's just me.

 

[Keirasplace]

It makes sense to me. Apparently, more people want an activity tracker than a smart watch, and Apple Watch just can't match Fitbit as an activity tracker. Built-in gps, long battery life, automatically tracks your sleep... Apple may have a tough time luring Fitbit users until it can give us those three things.

It's also 1/3 the price on average... You do know Android also outsells in volume IOS... Must mean they're better hey.

Pricing is real reason why it's ahead; cheaper things sell in greater volume... Big surprise I know.

Also, why on earth do you need a GPS to run or even walk; are you lost?
Unless going running in the brush, a GPS doesn't give you more useful info than the tuned accelerometer in the Apple Watch, simple as that. The margin of error on most GPS is around 6-8 meters, so in fact, when in movement, it gives you less info (especially if reception is spotty when margin of error is even bigger). The GPS is better when you don't move and it can do many readings.

BTW,, who makes the real money... You guessed it... It's not those Android phones, or fitbit.

 

[Keirasplace]

I just got back from the Apple Store. It was pretty crowded with holiday shoppers....but, not one customer standing at the Apple Watch Display/Table. For most people, I think it is just too expensive for what it does. Basically, it does very little unless you have an iPhone in your pocket. So, I think a lot of people just buy a cheaper fitness tracker and then use their phone for everything else.

I bought a Pebble for $99 earlier this year. (They were on sale for $69 during black Friday). It does the basic stuff: Notifications, Steps, Date/Time, Stopwatch, Calendar, Weather, Stock Quotes, Sports Scores....nothing fancy....5-7 day battery life.

If I need to do anything more complicated, I pull my iPhone out of my pocket.....no big deal. I can't imagine paying $400 for a watch that needs to be charged everyday. But, that's just me.

Funny how it's on track to sell about 20M a year... (about 8-9B in revenue) And they're reported to have sold a bundle during the thanksgiving sales (so says Target). Yeah, too "expensive".... Your narrative doesn't track reality.

 

[Mainsail]

Funny how it's on track to sell about 20M a year... (about 8-9B in revenue) And they're reported to have sold a bundle during the thanksgiving sales (so says Target). Yeah, too "expensive".... Your narrative doesn't track reality.

You might be right. Perhaps, folks are buying the Apple watch through other channels. I just don't see much action whenever I am at the store....which is obviously not very scientific.

I still think it is very expensive for what it does. I also find the OS and UI kind of confusing. Granted, I have only played with it a few times at the store....so, no expert.

Nevertheless, I probably came across too negative. At this stage of the game, it is just not the right device for me. But, I am sure there are folks that appreciate it. As you mention, somebody is buying them.