Apple Watch vs the watch industry

[jasie02]

That assumes that the dominant form factor for wearables continues to stay as "watches."
Even assuming that to be true, there should be a market for haute horlogerie (hand made artisanal watches, perhaps with complications) at the high end.
If the wearables transition to alternate forms such as wrist bracelets, clothes, glasses, etc, then we may see a resurgence of high end watches as fashion items.

This is just speculation, of course, but I do think that smart watches lack certain artistic qualities that high end watches have, and just like people still keep high end art even though they can buy cheap re-prints, I think people will still collect some high end watches. But it may only be true for the absolutely high end, such as tourbillons, minute repeaters, perpetual calendars, etc from Lange/Patek/Vacheton/et al.

I have no interesting to wear electronic goggles, shorts, pants, socks, underwear......
No sure too many people want to wear anything electronic close to their skin other than watch, which is one the first wearable for human for 100+ years.

What other wearable is ALREADY acceptable by maybe 20%+ human race for 100+ years?

 

[jasie02]

Panic or reality?
http://watchaware.com/post/15745/tag-heuer-ceo-we-cant-lose-the-wrist

"In an interview with the BBC, TAG Heuer’s CEO Jean-Clause Biver said that the company is getting into the smartwatch game in order to appeal to a “new generation” of watch wearers. Biver also said that what TAG is doing will allow them to close to door in competitors entering the watch space, especially in their price segment."

 

[BarracksSi]

Panic or reality?

I used to think that the Swiss were getting caught completely flat-footed by the smartwatch. I'm not so sure now.

TAG can't afford to cheapen their brand any further (it's already "entry level" when we're talking about luxury watches). There's no way they would try to compete in the low-three-digit price range with the Pebbles, Moto360s, and LG Rs.

I can't imagine that Biver hadn't already authorized development on a TAG smartwatch until after the AW was announced, either. Although I'm sure the Connected Carrera is based on off-the-shelf parts, putting the package together can't have been instantaneous (even accounting for as fast as the Chinese are reputed to be).

I'm willing to suggest that Biver had already set development in motion, and was simply waiting for the AW's pricing and sales reception. He said himself that he was happy to see the AW priced as high as it is, which gave him the excuse to price the TAG in its usual four-figure bracket.

Omega, Rolex, and above stopped caring about the utility-quartz market some time ago. No new development is coming from them in electronic watches (Omega's remaining quartz offerings are worse than the ones they've phased out). They're pandering to the image-conscious luxury buyers who want watches to go along with their $5,000 purses and $10k+ necklaces.

I'm not expecting the Swiss to emerge unscathed after the next ten years. I don't even think the entirety of Swatch Group or LVMH will be intact in another twenty years. They "survived" the quartz crisis by shedding jobs and factories like fur off a Persian cat.

 

[jasie02]

I used to think that the Swiss were getting caught completely flat-footed by the smartwatch. I'm not so sure now.

TAG can't afford to cheapen their brand any further (it's already "entry level" when we're talking about luxury watches). There's no way they would try to compete in the low-three-digit price range with the Pebbles, Moto360s, and LG Rs.

I can't imagine that Biver hadn't already authorized development on a TAG smartwatch until after the AW was announced, either. Although I'm sure the Connected Carrera is based on off-the-shelf parts, putting the package together can't have been instantaneous (even accounting for as fast as the Chinese are reputed to be).

I'm willing to suggest that Biver had already set development in motion, and was simply waiting for the AW's pricing and sales reception. He said himself that he was happy to see the AW priced as high as it is, which gave him the excuse to price the TAG in its usual four-figure bracket.

Omega, Rolex, and above stopped caring about the utility-quartz market some time ago. No new development is coming from them in electronic watches (Omega's remaining quartz offerings are worse than the ones they've phased out). They're pandering to the image-conscious luxury buyers who want watches to go along with their $5,000 purses and $10k+ necklaces.

I'm not expecting the Swiss to emerge unscathed after the next ten years. I don't even think the entirety of Swatch Group or LVMH will be intact in another twenty years. They "survived" the quartz crisis by shedding jobs and factories like fur off a Persian cat.

Here is problem, there will never be any Android watch is more compatible with iPhone than AW. And Smart watch success is because it is smart 1st, not look. I just don't see many iPhone owner will be happy with Android watch, once they are used to AW, as long as Apple keep iOS proprietary.
So unless one jump ship from iPhone to Android phone, Android watches are not really competitive with AW for iPhone user.

 

[Talukdar]

I think now a lot of peoples are going for other watches. Becasue some of them are working perfectly on IOS. I have found that Moto 360, Block Modular smart watch is working with IOS. So they don't want to spend a lot of money for Apple watch.

 

[Jessem1133]

They would probably be tighter if the band wasn't a knockoff.

For $60 I can live with it, compared to Apple's $500. The seams also tend to be more prominent in photos for some reason.

I know, i was just busting your chops
It's a nice looking band.

 

[jasie02]

I think now a lot of peoples are going for other watches. Becasue some of them are working perfectly on IOS. I have found that Moto 360, Block Modular smart watch is working with IOS. So they don't want to spend a lot of money for Apple watch.

Perfectly? As all function designed for Android also work with iOS, and same or better function and same or more app than AW when work with iPhone?

I think ok but less functional than AW with iOS, is probably more appropriately sentence, perfectly means 100% as compatible and functional as AW with iPhone, not sure that's the word I would use to description Android watch vs AW with iPhone. They are far from AW in term of app available for iOS and functional provided to iOS.

 

[cdcastillo]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/366...dot:42b059452a9ffbc7c623fdf35fde19f3&uprof=45

I thought this article was interesting, because it raises the point that most people will not wear two watches simultaneously and as such, Apple Watch will impact sales of even high end watches, simply by the fact that it will take over wrists of their owners.
What do you guys think?

I have wondered about this myself for a few months now, but I arrived at the opposite conclusion: many people with mechanical watches will avoid using a smartwatch.

You see, we are geeks and technology lovers, but we do not represent the majority of the population. And even among us, not everyone will stop using swiss watches to use an apple watch. I will not stop using my hamilton and longines for any smart watch. Do I need to keep track of my activity/sleep/heart rate? A cheap fitbit will do, and I do not look as a dork wearing my swiss watch and a fitbit, while wearing an apple watch and a regular mechanic watch would make me look as the dork I really am.

I've been saying it all along, and I'm already selling off my Rolexes and Omegas. I've had a lifelong interest in horology, but I find the Apple Watch too useful everyday to wear anything else.

Are you kidding? I find apple watch too tacky and ephemeral to use as my only watch. And since the full benefits of using the apple watch depends on the daily uninterrupted use, it is not worthy of the investment. If i'm gonna spend upwards of €/$ 1,000 in a watch, I prefer one that will last at least 10 years without becoming obsolete.

I know my entry-level mechanical watches are not pateks (the ones that advertise watches that will outlive you and your kids), but they will not be considered outdated/expensive-trash in less than half a decade.

Maybe for the people that consider 5-10 thousand euros/dollars pocket change, buying and replacing a €/$2,000 smart watch every 18-32 months makes sense. I'm so poor that when I buy a nice watch I intend for it to last at least a decade.

Good luck trying to sell your apple watch for 15% of what you pay for it in more than 2 years. The rolexes and omegas you are disposing of will fetch you at least 70% of their retailing price, and if they are from last century, even more.

While I still like the idea of one day owning a nice Omega Aqua Terra, I can see how the activity tracking aspect and goal keeping of the Apple Watch would make me think twice. I might feel like I "missed" out on my fitness tracking if I were an Omega for example.

What on earth stops you from using a fitbit or a jawbone up along with your aqua terra????

This is kind of a "duh" to me. Of course smartwatches will alter the watch industry. It will take time, but eventually the traditional watch will be relegated to the "buggy whip" path.

the old watches will end up losing in the long run. Other types of droid watches will eventually come out to compete with the watch

The old watches will rise again , once we switch over to non watch wearables like implants or full body tech suits

No, if so, and in any case, they will be relegated to the stradivarius status. They are art pieces with a purpose and utility, not cheap electronic violins that you can plug into an amplifier or a computer.

Though, the path chosen by Tag Heuer is an interesting solution to the problem of obsolescence, since after a few years you can trade it (plus a hefty fee) for a mechanical watch.

... Personally, I doubt that my Apple Watch will ever completely replace my traditional watches. In fact, my Apple Watch has made me appreciate my Rolex and other watches even more. I pay much more attention to them whenever I wear them now than I did before my Apple Watch.

Agreed.
I love my Apple Watch to death.
With that being said, I doubt it will ever replace the feel, look, and class of a real watch.

This! Exactly this!!

I think those that consider apple watch much better than swiss luxury watches are like those that thought digital watches (remember the pulsar?) were much better than mechanical watches because they were "modern". There is a timeless quality to a good mechanical timepiece. Try to say the same about a digital watch, a smartwatch or even about a quartz watch.

Traditional watches have withstood the time of time - design, quality, craftsmanship, endurance, universality. There is a reason Apple watch cannot replace traditional watches as it is limited in it's environmental uses...

Most traditional watches are tools, not tech gadgets, that can be used for time, timing/chrono functions, marine and astro navigation - if you have the knowledge in your noggin - combined with robustness and precision of the perpetual motion mechanism whether spring or auto propelled, anywhere, anytime, any environment, even the north pole. Try that with the Apple watch.

Even when it's true the mechanical watch have not been present for more than 4-6 centuries (depending on which history you read), they have been present for about 4-6 centuries. And they are more than mere tools, they are elegant tools, craftsmanship displays that show what human genius can accomplish.

 

[Mac 128]

I think those that consider apple watch much better than swiss luxury watches are like those that thought digital watches (remember the pulsar?) were much better than mechanical watches because they were "modern". There is a timeless quality to a good mechanical timepiece. Try to say the same about a digital watch, a smartwatch or even about a quartz watch.

This is where it is going for the mechanical watches. I don't love this watch, but I love what it does. As technology advances, there will come a point where you won't be able to tell a high end mechanical watch apart from a full featured smart watch.

https://kairoswatches.com

 

[barjam]

Traditional watches have withstood the time of time - design, quality, craftsmanship, endurance, universality. There is a reason Apple watch cannot replace traditional watches as it is limited in it's environmental uses.

Watch designs have advanced throughout the ages predominantly through their case designs - snap backs to oyster cases, shock resistant to anti magnetic, water resistant to water proof, to gas suspended complications, and shatter proof crystals.

The Apple watch with it's glued on back, lack of waterproofness, questionable case robustness, and crystal that shatters if dropped, all while depending on electrical outlet recharge, is less than ideal for many as in - sailing, hiking, camping, climbing, diving, expeditions, 3rd world travels - the list goes on.

Most traditional watches are tools, not tech gadgets, that can be used for time, timing/chrono functions, marine and astro navigation - if you have the knowledge in your noggin - combined with robustness and precision of the perpetual motion mechanism whether spring or auto propelled, anywhere, anytime, any environment, even the north pole. Try that with the Apple watch.

It seems like the cell phone has replaced the watch for most folks. Other than diving I can't think of any reason while I would wear a watch unless it was a smart watch of some sort. Having something on my wrist that is a one trick pony that is of marginal value doesn't appeal to me.

So there really wasn't a point that I was considering Apple Watch vs Mechanical. Actually having nothing on my wrist at all is of more value than a useless mechanical to me.

 

[MH01]

The traditional watch does the most basic function better than the Apple Watch . Tell time.

I have to tap or lift my Apple Watch for the screen to activate.

I rotate between my mechanical and Apple Watch . It's pros/cons

 

[douglasf13]

Are you kidding? I find apple watch too tacky and ephemeral to use as my only watch. And since the full benefits of using the apple watch depends on the daily uninterrupted use, it is not worthy of the investment. If i'm gonna spend upwards of €/$ 1,000 in a watch, I prefer one that will last at least 10 years without becoming obsolete.

I know my entry-level mechanical watches are not pateks (the ones that advertise watches that will outlive you and your kids), but they will not be considered outdated/expensive-trash in less than half a decade.

Maybe for the people that consider 5-10 thousand euros/dollars pocket change, buying and replacing a €/$2,000 smart watch every 18-32 months makes sense. I'm so poor that when I buy a nice watch I intend for it to last at least a decade.

Good luck trying to sell your apple watch for 15% of what you pay for it in more than 2 years. The rolexes and omegas you are disposing of will fetch you at least 70% of their retailing price, and if they are from last century, even more.

You're speaking as if the value of mechanical watches, which themselves have only been on the market for about a hundred years, will always hold strong. There is a glut of mechanical watches on the market (even Rolex sells about a million of them per year,) so even a tepid smartwatch adoption will make a dent. Enthusiastic smartwatch adoption will be a big problem. Mechanical typewriters held their value one, too. Even pocket watches held their value once, until the pesky wristwatch became popular.

BTW, a good mechanical watch costs about $500-$1000 to service every 5-10 years, so servicing alone starts to get pricey, especially if you own more than one.

As far as style is concerned, I'd put my Watch on the link bracelet up against anything else I've owned. Granted, I've been a WIS for a long time, so I can appreciate everything from a Nautilus to an old Commodore CBM.

 

[SHNXX]

This is where it is going for the mechanical watches. I don't love this watch, but I love what it does. As technology advances, there will come a point where you won't be able to tell a high end mechanical watch apart from a full featured smart watch.

https://kairoswatches.com

good god that is SO ugly... lol.
I think i'd rather have nothing on my wrist.

 

[SHNXX]

You're speaking as if the value of mechanical watches, which themselves have only been on the market for about a hundred years, will always hold strong. There is a glut of mechanical watches on the market (even Rolex sells about a million of them per year,) so even a tepid smartwatch adoption will make a dent. Enthusiastic smartwatch adoption will be a big problem. Mechanical typewriters held their value one, too. Even pocket watches held their value once, until the pesky wristwatch became popular.

BTW, a good mechanical watch costs about $500-$1000 to service every 5-10 years, so servicing alone starts to get pricey, especially if you own more than one.

As far as style is concerned, I'd put my Watch on the link bracelet up against anything else I've owned. Granted, I've been a WIS for a long time, so I can appreciate everything from a Nautilus to an old Commodore CBM.

To be fair, I do think that mechanical watches will fare better than typewriters, because unlike typewriters, some mechanical watches currently being sold today are being sold for purely emotional value, rather than anything functional.
Any smartphone keeps more accurate time with world time, stop watch function, and a lot more, but despite that mechanical wrist watches had lasting value to the tune of $40 billion per annum until recently.

However, on the general point that the mechanical watch market will be squeezed, I do agree with you.
I can see no reason that any of the second-tier or third-tier brands will survive the squeeze.
It's probably that the best brands of the haute horlogerie variety (Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, A. Lange & Sohne) and MAYBE a few non-haute horlogerie brands that are extremely successful today (e.g. Rolex, Omega) will survive, but most other brands I would be surprised if they survived.

 

[zmunkz]

No. I actually read recently--can't remember where--that the Apple Watch has had the effect of making people more interested in watches of ALL types, not just smartwatches.

This is certainly true for me. Although I would only ever wear the Apple Watch on a daily basis, having nicer watches for particular special occasions appeals to me more now than it used to.

 

[Caromsoft]

No. I actually read recently--can't remember where--that the Apple Watch has had the effect of making people more interested in watches of ALL types, not just smartwatches.

I have had my Apple Watch for about 2 weeks. I have been researching 3rd party bands for a week. I certainly know more about watch bands, both low end and high end, than I thought I would have a week ago.

 

[SHNXX]

This is certainly true for me. Although I would only ever wear the Apple Watch on a daily basis, having nicer watches for particular special occasions appeals to me more now than it used to.

This is what the watch industry people have been hoping for--gate watch effect--where an apple watch buyer ends up becoming a watch aficionado and ends up with a large watch collection after purchasing the apple watch, while previously not owning a watch.

I kind of think it's far-fetched, because while apple watch owners might find other watches more interesting, with new smart watches coming out every 2 years, they may never tire of the smart watches, and furthermore, it's hard to keep a smart watch out of a rotation if you have a compelling reason to wear it (e.g. fitness, notifications, etc).

I think if the Apple Watch owner doesn't use the fitness functions and does not care for notifications, then I could see this happening more frequently though.

 

[douglasf13]

To be fair, I do think that mechanical watches will fare better than typewriters, because unlike typewriters, some mechanical watches currently being sold today are being sold for purely emotional value, rather than anything functional.
Any smartphone keeps more accurate time with world time, stop watch function, and a lot more, but despite that mechanical wrist watches had lasting value to the tune of $40 billion per annum until recently.

However, on the general point that the mechanical watch market will be squeezed, I do agree with you.
I can see no reason that any of the second-tier or third-tier brands will survive the squeeze.
It's probably that the best brands of the haute horlogerie variety (Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, A. Lange & Sohne) and MAYBE a few non-haute horlogerie brands that are extremely successful today (e.g. Rolex, Omega) will survive, but most other brands I would be surprised if they survived.

I know, you'd think that would be the case, but there are still people who prefer using typewriters, and you can still buy them new. There are also some vintage models that are sought out for actual usage reasons.

Edit: Never mind, I misread your post. Good point.

 

[SHNXX]

I know, you'd think that would be the case, but there are still people who prefer using typewriters, and you can still buy them new. There are also some vintage models that are sought out for actual usage reasons.

Edit: Never mind, I misread your post. Good point.

That's interesting about the typewriters.

However it is probably the case that I, among other watch aficionados and watch companies, hope for a future where mechanical watches will be a bit more mainstream than typewriters are today.
If mechanical watches become relegated to the position typewriters are in, that would mean most of the watch companies are gone and my mechanical watches will be essentially worthless to the next generation.
I do think that watches, especially ones with very nice, hand-made, polished, jeweled movements inside of them, have a lot more artistic, artisanal qualities than most other things that have become outdated in the past, so I hope that watches will fare better....

 

[MH01]

That's interesting about the typewriters.

However it is probably the case that I, among other watch aficionados and watch companies, hope for a future where mechanical watches will be a bit more mainstream than typewriters are today.
If mechanical watches become relegated to the position typewriters are in, that would mean most of the watch companies are gone and my mechanical watches will be essentially worthless to the next generation.
I do think that watches, especially ones with very nice, hand-made, polished, jeweled movements inside of them, have a lot more artistic, artisanal qualities than most other things that have become outdated in the past, so I hope that watches will fare better....

Mechanical watches will continue to sell just fine, these days they are mostly jewellery, a smart watch looks cheap in comparison. If anything the smart watch phase will die out , the way of 3D TVs, calculator watches etc. In the wild I am still lucky to see one smart watch a week.

I have one, i enjoy it , and I know it will collect dust in 12 months time when its replaced, or battery starts going. My nice mechanical watch can be handed down to my kids and their kids, and it will still look great all those years down the track .

 

[SHNXX]

Mechanical watches will continue to sell just fine, these days they are mostly jewellery, a smart watch looks cheap in comparison. If anything the smart watch phase will die out , the way of 3D TVs, calculator watches etc. In the wild I am still lucky to see one smart watch a week.

I have one, i enjoy it , and I know it will collect dust in 12 months time when its replaced, or battery starts going. My nice mechanical watch can be handed down to my kids and their kids, and it will still look great all those years down the track .

if the world were a static place, yes I would agree with you.

 

[BarracksSi]

Some of you won't get the battery replaced? Yeah, it'll be more expensive than simply replacing a quartz watch battery (although the better quartz watches can be serviced, Seiko's 9F aside), but it'd be cheaper than servicing any mechanical, too.

 

[OllyW]

Some of you won't get the battery replaced? Yeah, it'll be more expensive than simply replacing a quartz watch battery (although the better quartz watches can be serviced, Seiko's 9F aside), but it'd be cheaper than servicing any mechanical, too.

It's a tech device, won't it be more or less obsolete by the time the battery need replacing?

 

[pika2000]

All Apple need to do is to make a round Apple watch.
So far, to me that's one big inhibitor not to get the Apple watch. It looks too geeky for a watch. In contrast, many people say great things about my Moto 360.

The luxury watch industry are threatened, but not so much yet. People are still willing to pay tens of thousands of dollars for a branded watch (seriously, putting things in perspective, Apple watch is actually "cheap"). But if Apple designed a nice looking round Apple watch, then I think people's eyeballs might be shifted in a significant way, as now it can look like those myriad of regular watches, but with Apple brand and functionality. That would be the day.

(secretly wishing for a round face Apple watch 2).

 

[BarracksSi]

It's a tech device, won't it be more or less obsolete by the time the battery need replacing?

We don't know that yet. iPad 2 is still going; all iPod models can still sync with iTunes, as far as I know (at least if you can find a way around the old FireWire models). There's even some examples of the first iPhone still kicking around.