Apple's 2024 M3 MacBook Air Refresh: What to Expect

[6749974]

Does the M3 model replace the M2 or does the M2 stick around at the entry level price and they discontinue the M1?

I suspect Apple will rid of the M2 chip and sell two models:

• M1 MacBook Air starting at $999
• M3 MacBook Air starting at $1099

It's also (only slightly) possible Apple reduces the price of the M1 Air to $899 because they are making very good margins on their old design; and people buying M1 Airs will be retiring that model sooner than people buying M3 Airs so there is included incentive to sell them that; not to mention PC users are getting 16/512 laptops for under $999 so Apple has to remain competitive somehow with the ole' 8/256. Apple wants to get "late majority" and "laggard" customer segments into the Mac ecosystem. Either a person buys a Mac → then falls in love to buy an iPhone, iPad, Airpods, etc; or Apple is looking at iPhone users still using Windows laptops and saying, "an $899 MacBook Air, on sale for $699 periodically, will tip them over to us."

Apple is having a hard time in Asia because competitors there have no problem beating Apple at performance-per-dollar and Apple's brand-magic doesn't work as well in Asia. Every $100 off MSRP goes a long way there.

 

[dmr727]

Know what you're getting into and do your research because there's good computers and bad computers, but I can tell you the water is just fine.

I don't have any issue with switching to Windows, but I'm struggling to find an ultraportable on the PC side that competes with the Air. Every premium laptop I've seen that competes well on performance and battery life is closer in size and weight to a MBP, or even larger. Something like an XPS or a Surface - but both of them insist on Intel and its garbage integrated graphics, and their pricing for upgrades is about as bad as Apple's.

 

[Mrkevinfinnerty]

I suspect Apple will rid of the M2 chip and sell two models:

• M1 MacBook Air starting at $999
• M3 MacBook Air starting at $1099

It's also (only slightly) possible Apple reduces the price of the M1 Air to $899 because they are making very good margins on their old design; and people buying M1 Airs will be retiring that model sooner than people buying M3 Airs so there is included incentive to sell them that; not to mention PC users are getting 16/512 laptops for under $999 so Apple has to remain competitive somehow with the ole' 8/256. Apple wants to get "late majority" and "laggard" customer segments into the Mac ecosystem. Either a person buys a Mac → then falls in love to buy an iPhone, iPad, Airpods, etc; or Apple is looking at iPhone users still using Windows laptops and saying, "an $899 MacBook Air, on sale for $699 periodically, will tip them over to us."

Apple is having a hard time in Asia because competitors there have no problem beating Apple at performance-per-dollar and Apple's brand-magic doesn't work as well in Asia. Every $100 off MSRP goes a long way there.

Yeah that's my guess too. Too many would just opt for the M2 model at the cheaper price point.

 

[6749974]

Something like an XPS or a Surface - but both of them insist on Intel and its garbage integrated graphics, and their pricing for upgrades is about as bad as Apple's.

The Dell XPS 13 comes with 8/256 and only costs $599 right now, straight from Dell. The Intel Iris Xe is right below M1 Air 7-core in GPU compute, and yet is far more compatible with games if thats your thing. With its Intel Core i5-1230U is 12th Gen and gets 16 hours battery life in web browsing tests.

The Dell XPS 13 is competitive with the older but still plentiful M1 Air. And upping to 16/512 is still below $999 at sale price at least. One can buy a 32 GB RAM and 1 TB model for $1300. It's biggest problem is that it doesn't run macOS.

 

[Mainsail]

There are some great deals on M2 MBAs right now, and I suspect most MBA customers would not see much difference in everyday use between the M2 and M3. However, the M3 might get an additional year or two of MacOS updates, and that could be important to some folks in the market for an MBA.

 

[HVDynamo]

Yeah. But the best we can realistically hope for is 512GB/8GB, since that's what the Pros start with now.

8GB RAM base needs to die just as bad as the 256GB base storage.

 

[Flex77]

I expect less throttling at load due to an improved thermal envelope thanks to the die shrunk M3, which this chassis was designed for as it was supposed to be ready for the M2.

That‘s an interesting point…

There was a bit of debate after the M2 Air launch about the device‘s heavy thermal throttling and a less than ideal heatsink design. I remember fairly critical reviews by Dave2D, ifixit and Ars Technica, but I don’t really know how the story developed?

It’s entirely possible that while the chassis remains untouched, under the hood improvements have been made to improve thermals and heat dissipation for M3. And indeed that might improve device performance beyond just the raw spec increase of M3 vs. M2.

Unfortunately I don’t have a great understanding of thermals, maybe someone more knowledgeable can elaborate…

 

[HVDynamo]

Apple just changed the M3 Pro to 18 GB from 16 GB, because this year they are using a new 6 GB DRAM chip (6 GB x 3 = 18 GB).

So the Airs will likely eventually move to 6 GB x 2 = 12 GB

It's possible the Pro chips will move to 24 GB, because thats an exact double of 12 GB. I just don't think its going to happen for another few years.

12GB is better than 8GB, but even then I think it's just a bit too little for a new machine today. You are probably right though that they will do 12GB since they definitely want to make sure the base RAM isn't too much so they can convince you to upgrade still. They will probably keep Pro machines at 18GB too for the same reason, but the pro machines really should be no less than 24GB base. Buying a Pro machine should put you at a minimum level where you can actually do some intensive workloads without running out of RAM, then you can add more to beef it up if needed for a specific workflow.

 

[dmr727]

The Dell XPS 13 is competitive with the older but still plentiful M1 Air. And upping to 16/512 is still below $999 at sale price at least. One can buy a 32 GB RAM and 1 TB model for $1300. It's biggest problem is that it doesn't run macOS.

But it's not competitive to the upcoming M3, which if I'm going to spend over a grand anyway, I might as well buy the MBA (assuming the pricing is the same as the M2). And my M1 MBA plays games in Crossover *significantly* better than a 12th Gen Intel XPS natively, and does so silently. My 13" XPS got hot and ran its fans continuously on the same games, running on significantly lower settings. Anyway, that's why I ended up returning my XPS. I came to the conclusion that Intel's stuff simply can't compete on low wattage laptops. If I was willing to go to 14" on the PC side, all of a sudden the situation gets far more interesting (I'm not much of a gamer, otherwise I'd already be rocking a Razer. But I do like to play the occasional older title).

I also really like what AMD is doing with integrated graphics and think that'd be a good solution, but friggin' Dell and Microsoft can't seem to wean themselves from the Intel teat when it comes to their premium 13" offerings. 🙂

 

[6749974]

12GB is better than 8GB, but even then I think it's just a bit too little for a new machine today.

I agree with you 100% that 16 should have been the target, but the glass-half-full perspective is this:

• 8 GB is really 6 GB of app-available memory because macOS and GPU needs about 2 GB
• 12 GB is really 10 GB of app-available memory because macOS and GPU needs about 2 GB

So Apple bringing a 50% increase in RAM results in a 67% increase in app-available memory. That extra 4 GB will go a long way for a chip as powerful as an M4 (or whatever).

Apple will be doubling neural engine cores about then, so it won't go unused. Asia is eating Apple's lunch in regard to devices doing ML/AI services, losing revenue, coming short on projections, so Apple has been telegraphing this move to appease shareholders.

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

I went from MacBook to PC for my most recent laptop purchase and have zero regrets. Apple lost me as a customer. Keep in mind I've always liked Windows, anyway.

I've upgraded to 32GB of RAM and a 2TB SSD, both costing a grand total of $200. Feels good man.

Know what you're getting into and do your research because there's good computers and bad computers, but I can tell you the water is just fine.

I run a business and HAVE to have Windows too and don't trust Windows ARM as full Windows for client purposes. So I've already purchased a desktop PC for the first time in about 20 years since Silicon basically retired bootcamp (a tremendous value loss for those of us who need easy access to both worlds). So I've already got reacquainted with Windows 11 and find it quite good. Paired with a quality laptop and I can easily see Windows 11 being a good "on the road" alternative for all of the kinds of apps needed when away. Anything that needs some Mac app work could wait until I get back to the desktop Mac.

That RAM & SSD pricing is just so insulting, it has rapidly eroded accumulated brand goodwill for me that would previously help rationalize the "Apple Premium." They charge it because many will "just pay..." but I won't. So I hope they opt to get back to delivering more customer value before I actually need to purchase a new laptop. Expectations of that are LOW but I can kick this can a little longer while my Intel MB/Intel PC (in ONE case) is able to still cover both bases when on the road.

I'd much prefer to buy a new MB but I won't so ridiculously overpay for those parts of one. Compete (Apple) or lose another one(s???).

 

[6749974]

But it's not competitive to the upcoming M3, which if I'm going to spend over a grand anyway, I might as well buy the MBA (assuming the pricing is the same as the M2). And my M1 MBA plays games in Crossover *significantly* better than a 12th Gen Intel XPS natively, and does so silently. My 13" XPS got hot and ran its fans continuously on the same games, running on significantly lower settings. Anyway, that's why I ended up returning my XPS. I came to the conclusion that Intel's stuff simply can't compete on low wattage laptops. If I was willing to go to 14" on the PC side, all of a sudden the situation gets far more interesting (I'm not much of a gamer, otherwise I'd already be rocking a Razer. But I do like to play the occasional older title).

I also really like what AMD is doing with integrated graphics and think that'd be a good solution, but friggin' Dell and Microsoft can't seem to wean themselves from the Intel teat when it comes to their premium 13" offerings. 🙂

Thats why I emphasized "is competitive with the older but still plentiful M1 Air" at $599.

You're right, thats not competitive with the yet released M3 Air but that MSRP will likely be $1099, about double the Dell XPS 13. Lets give some benefit to Intel here. M3 Air is coming out in Q1 of 2024? Well Intel 14th gen is coming in Q1 of 2024. Two of their laptop chips will be made with TSMC's 3nm process. Sound familiar?

I'm not disagreeing with you—you can't replace the world's greatest laptop IMHO with an Intel laptop—but Intel isn't too far behind. They fell behind due to money-focused leadership, but their newest CEO is a bad-ass engineer that has lead Intel on a tear campaign.

By the way—Apple always does this: They move to a new architecture, leap frogging everyone else for 5-6 years, where we celebrate Apple having better value-per-dollar...then Intel/AMD/PC industry catch up, leaving Apple in the dust, and then we spend two decades defending Apple and claiming value-per-dollar isn't everything.

 

[dmr727]

You're right, thats not competitive with the yet released M3 Air but that MSRP will likely be $1099, about double the Dell XPS 13. Lets give some benefit to Intel here. M3 Air is coming out in Q1 of 2024? Well Intel 14th gen is coming in Q1 of 2024. Two of their laptop chips will be made with TSMC's 3nm process. Sound familiar?

That's definitely a good point - I didn't realize 14th gen laptop stuff would be coming so soon. How long do you think it'll take to make its way into an XPS? Maybe I should hold off on doing anything until I can see how it does.

The other issue is that I think I'm a bit of an oddball in wanting *some* level of GPU performance in a 13" laptop. Razer stopped making their 1050 equipped 13" years ago, which is probably a clue. I'm on the road a lot - which is why I'm reluctant to go bigger - but maybe the solution is to simply punt on the whole thing and buy a Steam Deck. 😉

But you're right - I'll do some more research on Intel's 14th gen and wait to see what that's like. I'm kind of tied into the Apple ecosystem with my iDevices, but I have no such issue with my laptop, and Windows and MacOS both annoy me in equal amounts. Switching doesn't give me heartburn in the least, and I like the idea of not accepting the Apple tax (especially on upgrades), but as you mentioned - this M1 Air is just so damned nice. 😀

 

[DarthDon]

I bought a Thinkpad for typing work documents, writing a book on, and I really love the typing experience on it. But, everything else on it sucks compared to my MacBooks. It has 16GB of RAM and a 4TB SSD and cost me less than $1k, but it just isn’t a Mac! The build quality is not on par. But the keyboard is heavenly. At some point there has to be a way for Apple to improve the keyboards. They’re really not good if you compare them to a Thinkpad.

It depends on the class of the Thinkpad. I am running one "E"with debian, external 4K, 16/1TB. It is not a racer - but it runs absolutely perfect - 24/7... T's or P's would be perfect in quality. I do have thinkpads since IBM. But to be honest; with the next mac it will leave vor my MBP I9. Just waiting for a linux that runs on it...

 

[Chuckeee]

Yeah that's my guess too. Too many would just opt for the M2 model at the cheaper price point.

I wish this is true cause I do like the M1 MBA layout better. But would that make it the only M1 in the current generation of Apple products? Looks likely even new iPads will only have M2 or M3, no M1.

While I detest the possibility, I could see the entry level MBA, becoming some sort of gimp or binned M3. (Greater commonality of parts.)

 

[Chuckeee]

But it's not competitive to the upcoming M3, which if I'm going to spend over a grand anyway, I might as well buy the MBA (assuming the pricing is the same as the M2). And my M1 MBA plays games in Crossover *significantly* better than a 12th Gen Intel XPS natively, and does so silently. My 13" XPS got hot and ran its fans continuously on the same games, running on significantly lower settings. Anyway, that's why I ended up returning my XPS. I came to the conclusion that Intel's stuff simply can't compete on low wattage laptops. If I was willing to go to 14" on the PC side, all of a sudden the situation gets far more interesting (I'm not much of a gamer, otherwise I'd already be rocking a Razer. But I do like to play the occasional older title).

I also really like what AMD is doing with integrated graphics and think that'd be a good solution, but friggin' Dell and Microsoft can't seem to wean themselves from the Intel teat when it comes to their premium 13" offerings. 🙂

how immediate is your need? There are the new Qualcomm ARM processors that are being tested now and might be available in some sort of laptop product by the end of the year

 

[dmr727]

how immediate is your need? There are the new Qualcomm ARM processors that are being tested now and might be available in some sort of laptop product by the end of the year

Not immediate at all, so that's not a bad thought. If I'm being honest, from a need standpoint this is nothing more than a little retail therapy. 😛

 

[Howard2k]

It depends on the class of the Thinkpad. I am running one "E"with debian, external 4K, 16/1TB. It is not a racer - but it runs absolutely perfect - 24/7... T's or P's would be perfect in quality. I do have thinkpads since IBM. But to be honest; with the next mac it will leave vor my MBP I9. Just waiting for a linux that runs on it...

I have a thinkpad for work. I have to put it to sleep several times a day to reset the trackpad and it keeps going mental.

It’s not a pile of garbage but in no way is it the same quality of build as my MacBook Air.

 

[DarthDon]

I have a thinkpad for work. I have to put it to sleep several times a day to reset the trackpad and it keeps going mental.

It’s not a pile of garbage but in no way is it the same quality of build as my MacBook Air.

Never had that Problems. You shoud do a Recovery (Windows) or Switch to Linux. Maybe the trackpad is broken…

 

[Howard2k]

Never had that Problems. You shoud do a Recovery (Windows) or Switch to Linux. Maybe the trackpad is broken…

Work laptop, none of those are realistic options unfortunately. Other people have complained of similar issues and just switched to mouse instead, so it doesn't seem to be just me, but who knows. It also pulls itself straight out of sleep when this happens so it's a momentary glitch but super annoying all the same. This is a T14 and should be decent.

 

[Harry Haller]

I don't see the joke. Please explain.

No joke.
The M3 air has hardware raytracing, meshes and GPU dynamic cache.
The M2 Mac Pro Ultra doesn’t.
Well, you could say the joke is on Mac Pro users, but that would be unkind.

 

[Reason077]

Apple just changed the M3 Pro to 18 GB from 16 GB, because this year they are using a new 6 GB DRAM chip (6 GB x 3 = 18 GB).

So the Airs will likely eventually move to 6 GB x 2 = 12 GB

Only if MacBook Airs start shipping with M3 Pro chips, which is unlikely. The standard M3 SoC uses the traditional DRAM architecture and gets 8GB, 16GB, etc.

 

[Reason077]

No joke.
The M3 air has hardware raytracing, meshes and GPU dynamic cache.
The M2 Mac Pro Ultra doesn’t.
Well, you could say the joke is on Mac Pro users, but that would be unkind.

But with a Mac Pro you have two double-height PCIe x16 gen 4 expansion slots so you can plug in any.... oh, wait. macOS doesn't support graphics cards on Apple Silicon.

 

[Reason077]

No way, 256GB will last another 10 years.

"256GB ought to be enough for anyone"

- Tim Cook

 

[Wanted797]

If Apple doesn’t release a 12” MacBook (Air/Pro) this year, I’ll probably lose all hope for a small and light Mac…

The air is literally a small and light Mac.

The 12” would be nothing but worse than the 13” in all but the one niche of portability.