Apple's $29 Battery Replacement Program Could Lead to 16M Fewer iPhones Sold in 2018

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Apple's decision to offer $29 battery replacements to customers with older iPhones could cause iPhone sales to drop in 2018, according to Barclays analyst Mark Moskowitz (via CNBC).

Customers opting for a battery replacement instead of upgrading an iPhone could be a "mild headwind" for iPhone unit sales, potentially resulting in millions of fewer iPhone purchases during the year. Moskowitz believes up to 77 percent of iPhone users are eligible to upgrade their batteries.

In our base case scenario, 10% of those 519M users take the $29 offer, and around 30% of them decide not to buy a new iPhone this year. This means around 16M iPhone sales could be at risk, creating ~4% downside to our current revenue estimate for C2018.
It remains to be seen if and how the battery replacement program will impact sales in practice despite analyst predictions, as there are other considerations that drive upgrades, such as new features.

Apple began offering reduced-cost battery replacements following backlash from an admission that it slows down some older iPhone models with degraded batteries to prevent them from shutting down unexpectedly.

The power management issue impacts the iPhone 6, iPhone 6 Plus, iPhone 6s, iPhone 6s Plus, iPhone SE, iPhone 7, and iPhone 7 Plus, but only in situations where battery health has declined. Affected iPhones see throttling during times of peak power usage, such as when running a benchmark.

iPhones that are running slower can be restored to their original condition with a fresh battery, which is why Apple has decided to offer $29 replacements from now until the end of 2018.

While Apple implemented power management features in older iPhones in an attempt to extend their lives as long as possible, some people have claimed that Apple is intentionally slowing devices to push its customers to upgrade, which the company says is not true. From Apple:
First and foremost, we have never -- and would never -- do anything to intentionally shorten the life of any Apple product, or degrade the user experience to drive customer upgrades. Our goal has always been to create products that our customers love, and making iPhones last as long as possible is an important part of that.
Though Apple may not have been aiming to get customers to upgrade their devices by implementing power management features, it's an inevitable side effect, hence why the battery program could cut into sales somewhat. Apple is currently facing several lawsuits from customers who claim they upgraded after experiencing slower speeds on their older iPhones.

Apple plans to offer $29 battery replacements throughout the year, and according to internal documentation, all customers who ask for a battery replacement for an affected iPhone will receive one, regardless of battery health.

Article Link: Apple's $29 Battery Replacement Program Could Lead to 16M Fewer iPhones Sold in 2018
 
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Nor10

macrumors member
Sep 7, 2016
31
212
That is what Apple gets for Deceiving Customers! Not just iPhones but all throttled devices to cover up for their Corrupt Battery Claims since Tim Cook became CEO. Apple is Corrupt and lying to the customers on battery performance for several years...and now they have been Caught...Steve Jobs would fire the entire executive team for poor quality of software, products and services years ago...Apple is on a severe decline; don't let the Stock analyst suggest otherwise...the Apple Community has had it!
 

businezguy

macrumors 6502
Jun 23, 2003
389
455
Yep! This is the reason why Apple didn't want to address this recall. To be clear, I'm not in the camp that believes Apple was trying to get people to upgrade their iPhones, I just don't think Apple wanted to PROLONG the life of EXISTING iPhones. That's the real reason they didn't want to replace batteries.
 

scoskey

macrumors newbie
Mar 22, 2016
13
8
I was thinking about upgrading my 2016 SE to the 2018 SE (if it exists). Now I'll use this to stretch my 2016 SE as long as possible.
 
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pallymore

macrumors regular
Sep 24, 2013
206
260
Boston, MA
B.S! People will continue to buy new phones. Realistically, how many people actually buy new phones because of their slower performance?
The reality is many people can't justify spending hundreds (or, ~$1000) to buy a new phone every two years. And many people simply don't care about the latest and the greatest.

My dad's iPhone 6 Plus was so slow that he (a very much non-tech person) felt very frustrated (even wiped his phone clean because he thought it has got some kind of virus). I bought him an iPhone 8 plus as a present for his birthday, he couldn't really tell the differences (other than the obvious ones like the camera looks different) but he's just happy that using the new phone just feels like using his 6p when he first bought it.
 
B.S! People will continue to buy new phones. Realistically, how many people actually buy new phones because of their slower performance?
I'd say that's more the norm. Especially now that older iPhone features are still pretty good. I've upgraded every 2 years since my 3G, but I'm still holding on to my iPhone 6, because nothing has been that inspiring and my 6 handles everything I need it to. I've been planning on holding out till 2018 for a while now. That being said, since iOS 11 I've had some really horrid performance which has had me seriously reconsidering. Performance has since improved and I'm feeling more confident about waiting till 2018.
 

djcerla

macrumors 68000
Apr 23, 2015
1,804
7,458
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iPhones were slowing down way before iOS11, for a lot of different reasons.

This is not bound to change with cheaper battery replacements.

Very poor “analysis”, more like a FUD piece.
 
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iMerik

macrumors 6502a
May 3, 2011
587
406
Upper Midwest
B.S! People will continue to buy new phones. Realistically, how many people actually buy new phones because of their slower performance?
My iPhone 6 was beyond frustratingly slow and barely usable in some cases ever since iOS 11. I was thinking about upgrading to the latest iPhone, but my performance issues convinced me without a doubt that I just needed to be done with my iPhone 6. If this revelation and battery replacement program would've occurred back in October or November, I would have likely tried the battery first and held off another year.
 

cppguy

macrumors 6502a
Apr 6, 2009
576
861
SF Bay Area, California
What do you do if the Lightning connector got loose? Is there a repair program for it? It's a serious problem, because it randomly disconnects while charging, or while flying my drone.
 

cmwade77

macrumors 65816
Nov 18, 2008
1,055
1,124
Honestly, if that number is true, then I think we can safely call B.S. on Apple's claim that they weren't doing it to sell new phones.

Personally I think Apple and others should just make batteries removable again, it can be done and still be waterproof (plenty of digital cameras prove this).
 

Nor10

macrumors member
Sep 7, 2016
31
212
Her three year old phone is slow?

Wow.
So what is your point GizmoDVD; you say that all should spend 300 to 1K every three years on a new phone? This is new in Apple history and not just iPhones...You could always count on any hardware you bought from Apple would last and perform for years and several years. Now Apple has been caught in a Corrupt obsolesces and it will be proved it is not just on iPhone!. So stop your snarky comments
 
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