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Apple's February 28th 2006 Event Rumors and Speculation

DVR comment

First let me say that I am a huge fan of DVRs, I couldn't live without one. But Apple is all about the Apple Economy and how their products connect together. iPod and iTunes, iLife and dot mac, etc. So I would have to see an upside for Apple before I really buy into the DVR concept. First of all I would expect them to go subscription for video content, let's face it we like to buy music but we tend to rent videos (sorry to all the DVD buyers out there, but I rarely buy a DVD I have netflix). That would be one way to connect to a DVR concept. Second, I suspect that this concept will be connected to dot mac to get the program information (a la Tivo subscription) since i think they are trying to push this service harder with iLife '06.

Anyway, I think they like to have connectivity between hardware and software or service so I'd expect to see that trait in any new product category.

You know, we're all so proud of buying our music off iTunes rather than wasting our time with a subscription service like Napster that gets turned off as soon as we stop paying, but the fact is there are now a billion songs out there that can only be played on an iPod, so we're gonna have to keep buying the iPod if we want to listen to them. Sound like a subscription service? Just not the music but the player, you have to keep buying iPods to listen to the music, brilliant!
 
An Innate Desire To Be Cool

BritinNC said:
You know, we're all so proud of buying our music off iTunes rather than wasting our time with a subscription service like Napster that gets turned off as soon as we stop paying, but the fact is there are now a billion songs out there that can only be played on an iPod, so we're gonna have to keep buying the iPod if we want to listen to them. Sound like a subscription service? Just not the music but the player, you have to keep buying iPods to listen to the music, brilliant!
Click to expand...

As much as I agree with the sentiment, I must point out that it is not categorically true. iTunes is as prolific as the iPod, and I know some iTMS customers who are content to confine their experience to the computers they use everyday.

The iPod's success is not so directly linked to the iTMS. In my experience, the beauty and style it reflects on those who own it has outshined even its functionality in terms of market success. That is Apple's greatest advantage over its competition. Any new product, I believe, will at least attempt to incorporate such a captivating feeling within the public as the innate desire we all share to be cool.
 
I only read to page 3, so sorry if I am being redundant...

In terms of the rumor of Apple offering full-length feature film downloads:

- what would one imagine the price point to be? $2.99? (rental) or $9.99 (purchase)

- would Apple go the rental route? How might that system work?

- how are downloading speeds now for TV shows? What are the file sizes? What could one expect in this area?

- Also, I remember reading an article linked at LowEndMac, about an Apple/Blockbuster partnership - where Apple would take advantage of Blockbuster's locations/convenience and add kiosks where you could upload movies to your iPod in store - drawing in more customers than those who might purchase on-line. Any possibility of this? I think it is a pretty good idea...
 
boncellis said:
In my experience, the beauty and style it reflects on those who own it has outshined even its functionality in terms of market success. That is Apple's greatest advantage over its competition. Any new product, I believe, will at least attempt to incorporate such a captivating feeling within the public as the innate desire we all share to be cool.
Click to expand...

Boncellis, this is more profound a statement than one might think...I too, feel the same regarding my experience with friends, family, etc. purchasing the iPod in its many forms. It's a top-notch media player from a top-notch company that carries an equally top-notch price, but when it comes down to it, it's all about being dead sexy!
 
boncellis said:
As much as I agree with the sentiment, I must point out that it is not categorically true. iTunes is as prolific as the iPod, and I know some iTMS customers who are content to confine their experience to the computers they use everyday.

The iPod's success is not so directly linked to the iTMS. In my experience, the beauty and style it reflects on those who own it has outshined even its functionality in terms of market success. That is Apple's greatest advantage over its competition. Any new product, I believe, will at least attempt to incorporate such a captivating feeling within the public as the innate desire we all share to be cool.
Click to expand...

I agree, but Apple doesn't really make money on iTunes, they make it on the iPod, that's what they want to lock you into (which they have done 'cos we've all been buying music on iTunes!). It's a great business strategy and I expect they'll repeat it. Nobody is going to worry as long as the iPod is the best thing out there, and really don't know what you could do to beat it, but if they run out of things to do to innovate the iPod they don't need to worry because we all have to keep buying them to listen to the music we've bought! (Since you can't replace the battery!)

Don't worry, we're all happy, I'm just telling you how Apple thinks in my opinion that's all! ;)
 
Town Hall Auditorium, located at 4 Infinite Loop on the company's Cupertino, Calif.-based campus
gekkoWasHere.jpg


I was snooping around Infinite Loop with a friend when we visited California a couple of summers ago and we were invited in to a sys-admin conference that was being held in that auditorium.
 
Apple's 5G iPod with Video playback was released on October 12 2005, we're approaching the average number of days before an update (average =145 [according to macrumors])... by the 2/28, we're almost right on top of it.

It makes sense for something iPod-related. I don't think it'll be a brand-new 6G iPod with much bigger screen like the rumors have been saying. I do, however, think we'll be getting bigger drives for the money. I'm thinking 40GB for $299 and 80Gb for $399. Also, I think we'll be getting an all-new Disney Movie store for downloads of Classic Disney, or at the very least: Pixar movies for download.

My2¢,
JGowan

PS... Another thought about the iPod, its success and its competition... think about the 3rd party business that is out there. I believe I read recently that it is now a billion dollar industry. I could be wrong, I tried to find the story but ultimately, it's irrelevant... the amount of money being made in designing incredible gadgets to be used solely for the iPod simply puts the competition further and further behind. Knowing that you're not only getting the best player out there, but also one that will work with thousands of great 3rd party product, people will continue to buy IPOD.
 
All I know is that I will be ready for whatever Apple throws at the world... I'm betting on an iPod accessory and/or iBook (not too sure on Mac Mini)
 
JGowan said:
Apple's 5G iPod with Video playback was released on October 12 2005, we're approaching the average number of days before an update (average =145 [according to macrumors])... by the 2/28, we're almost right on top of it.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that's not true though. As they say in the guide, it doesn't really take account of the multiple products in the iPod line, so that average includes updates to minis/nanos and also includes price updates and name changes (like when the photo became the iPod with colour screen). The actual hardware update is fairly different.
 
OK, I am betting 1.5 Pop Tarts on:

* An updated iPod model (be it a Shuffle, Red iPod, or new video-centric high-end model)

* iPod accessory hardware (Boombox?)

* Core Solo Mac Mini (and maybe Core Duo on a top model)

* Core Solo MacBook/iBook (ditto on Core Solo vs. Duo)

AppleInsider now reports rumors of a new magnet-only latch on the iBook replacement:
http://www.appleinsider.com/article.php?id=1555
 
blackfox said:
- how are downloading speeds now for TV shows? What are the file sizes? What could one expect in this area?
Click to expand...
For movies? One could expect BRUTAL downloads, and/or brutal quality compromises (OK for a CHEAP rental maybe).

But the ball has to start rolling somewhere. Movies wouldn't take off like music due to download times perhaps, but if Apple positioned it intelligently, it would be seen as a "good start" rather than "failed hype."

Like they did with the 5G iPod: it's known for video now, but had Apple hyped it the wrong way, with video at the focus rather than music, it would been seen as a flop, or at least gleefully spoken of in the press that way.

I think when Apple dips their toe into online movie distribution, they'll be smart about it.
 
nagromme said:
OK, I am betting 1.5 Pop Tarts on:

* An updated iPod model (be it a Shuffle, Red iPod, or new video-centric high-end model)

* iPod accessory hardware (Boombox?)

* Core Solo Mac Mini (and maybe Core Duo on a top model)

* Core Solo MacBook/iBook (ditto on Core Solo vs. Duo)

AppleInsider now reports rumors of a new magnet-only latch on the iBook replacement:
http://www.appleinsider.com/article.php?id=1555
Click to expand...


Sure. I'd agree with that. You have all the possible bases covered. The big(ger) question is this: Will there be any additional functionality to the iPod or will it simply be 5G with a larger screen?

Oh, someone mentioned the Asteroid somewhere in this thread (or maybe another one). Both listening to and making music are fun

-Squire
 
appleinsider just posted a very intersting article on the magnetic capabilites of hte macbook. THe article says they would use it instead of the clasts like hte macbook to connect the display to the computer when its closed.
 
BritinNC said:
I agree, but Apple doesn't really make money on iTunes,
Click to expand...

Margins wise, maybe not, but even at 1% a billion songs a year* is still $10 million dollars. Assuming a not unreasonably high rate of 15% profit margin that is $150 Million Dollars, which is not chump change in any business. I think people say that "Apple doesn't make money off of iTunes" because Steve Jobs said that like 2.75 years ago when it first started. It was not long at all before he said they were clearing a small profit. I cannot believe that that has not increased since.

David:cool:

*Apple's current going rate, and yes I know this doesn't take into effect albums vs singles
 
themacman said:
appleinsider just posted a very intersting article on the magnetic capabilites of hte macbook. THe article says they would use it instead of the clasts like hte macbook to connect the display to the computer when its closed.
Click to expand...

Apple's having a lot of fun with magnets these days. I can still remember the day when a magnet anywhere near a computer would freak everyone in the room out.

David:cool:
 
New Mac Mini needs to either come with the software to outshine a standard DVR, or boot Windows-- otherwise I see it as a waste of time. DVR capability will get everyone to buy it. Booting Windows might get people to switch. If it's just a Macintel Mini I don't see much benefit in it's product slot.
 
BritinNC said:
First let me say that I am a huge fan of DVRs, I couldn't live without one. But Apple is all about the Apple Economy and how their products connect together. iPod and iTunes, iLife and dot mac, etc. So I would have to see an upside for Apple before I really buy into the DVR concept. First of all I would expect them to go subscription for video content, let's face it we like to buy music but we tend to rent videos (sorry to all the DVD buyers out there, but I rarely buy a DVD I have netflix). That would be one way to connect to a DVR concept. Second, I suspect that this concept will be connected to dot mac to get the program information (a la Tivo subscription) since i think they are trying to push this service harder with iLife '06.

Anyway, I think they like to have connectivity between hardware and software or service so I'd expect to see that trait in any new product category.

You know, we're all so proud of buying our music off iTunes rather than wasting our time with a subscription service like Napster that gets turned off as soon as we stop paying, but the fact is there are now a billion songs out there that can only be played on an iPod, so we're gonna have to keep buying the iPod if we want to listen to them. Sound like a subscription service? Just not the music but the player, you have to keep buying iPods to listen to the music, brilliant!
Click to expand...
Interesting perspective, thanks.

Let me suggest this as a possible upside: how did iTMS get started? First Apple released a gadget that was a must have-- giving a large number of people storage for more music than they had. Then they went to the labels and said, "Look guys, they're going to fill that hard drive one way or another...".

If Apple can do the same with a media Mac/ iPod combination, they can probably arm twist the movie industry into the same deal. I don't the the Mac will be enough on it's own-- MPIAA won't see it any differently than DVD player software. I don't think the iPod will do it alone because portable movie viewing is a pretty limited market. Mix the at home viewing of the Mac with the incredible-growing-marketshare of the iPod and you might get the right combination to strike a nerve.

But, as even as a .Mac sucker, I really hope they don't tie this in with .Mac. That'll kill sales of the hardware. Maybe they can offer a second tier premium service through .Mac, but it can't be a requirement for basic use (or for the kinds of features people expect out of the box).

On the iPod lock in, there's one big difference-- you can strip the DRM off the music pretty easily. For most people, they're stripping the DRM off when they back up their purchase.
 
nagromme said:
For movies? One could expect BRUTAL downloads, and/or brutal quality compromises (OK for a CHEAP rental maybe).

But the ball has to start rolling somewhere. Movies wouldn't take off like music due to download times perhaps, but if Apple positioned it intelligently, it would be seen as a "good start" rather than "failed hype."
Click to expand...
Yeah, it probably took me a couple hours to download the Best of Bellushi which is an hour long and marginal quality.

Even with higher quality encoding over basic broadband though, it should turn out faster than Netflix. Not quite to the level of "impulse" viewing or "on demand", but you could start a download before work and watch it when you get home.

If you download to the same place you watch it from, you can probably start viewing before the download is complete too-- which would buy a little bit of time.
 
supergod said:
Yeah, that's not true though. As they say in the guide, it doesn't really take account of the multiple products in the iPod line, so that average includes updates to minis/nanos and also includes price updates and name changes (like when the photo became the iPod with colour screen). The actual hardware update is fairly different.
Click to expand...
Here's something I threw together a few days ago. It's a timeline of all the major generational updates, according MacTracker:

iPods0206.gif


For what it's worth. A million people probably have already made a graphic like that, but I couldn't find any at the time, so there it is.
 
Assuming that the iCal logo in the invitation has something to do with the fun, new products that are going to be released, can anyone think of anything besides some sort of iPDA/iPod combo? I've spent some time thinking about it, and am coming up blank.
 
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