It would be odd to upgrade the 13 inch MacBook Airs to M3 and leave the 15 inch MacBook Air with the M2. I'm guessing they leave the 15 inch line up as is and just add a higher end M3 option.
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Apple's First M3-Powered Macs Likely to Launch in October
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While those of us here care about those details I can absolutely assure you the average macbook air buyer is not pouring over the tech news on TSMC’s process nodes.
M2 is one better than M1 and faster is the main takeaway for most folks, also the redesign.
The lag is more because a *lot* of people updated to M1s during the pandemic, there was a lot of anticipation and pent up demand and sudden need for more computing at home, and have no need to upgrade now, and a lot of folks on last gen intel machines (like myself with my MBA) still have no need to upgrade. Most people upgrade in the 3-5 years block, we’re barely hitting that envelope right now for last gen intel and first gen M1 (and I’d bet folk’s upgrade cycles with M* chips are likely to be in the 5-7 year range - given how long Apple has been keeping the M1 around it’s not like support is likely to drop any time soon)
I’d be willing to bet that the next *huge* upgrade wave for macbooks will be with the M4 releases plus MacOS in 2025 since that’s likely when they’ll drop intel support
Knowing Apple, it’ll be another notebook refresh. It seems those get three updates a year, while the iMac hasn’t been updated in almost three years…
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#StopDesktopDiscrimination
Oh hey Gurman trying to be relevant again.
I seriously doubt this, because of one simple fact: The Apple Vision Pro is on M2. If they released M3 in October before launching the Vision Pro it's gonna sabotage what little potential sales the headset is gonna get.
I seriously doubt this, because of one simple fact: The Apple Vision Pro is on M2. If they released M3 in October before launching the Vision Pro it's gonna sabotage what little potential sales the headset is gonna get.
Not likely. M3 appear to be a good leap, due to the 3nm process, and given TSMCs problems producing it, I don't think they want the added complexity with this release. I also eagerly await RT support, but I think we have to wait until M4.
Their inital 3nm node is reported to be at relatively low output (~55% yield rate), but they should have been at production levels since 2H22, and as Apple reportedly has booked the vast majority of the production through 2023, so they should have more then enough time to produce what Apple needs.
I think you will be quite surprised when it launches with officially announced specifications, the ones which are also in the developer kits.
The good news is that, regardless of when you buy any type of Mac, it's going to be a great Mac that's better than the last one you had.
Maybe it could make sense in October that they release 30" iMac with M3 and replace 13" MBPro with new design 12.5" with M3 maybe called just Macbook?
HobeSoundDarryl
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Of course, another, simple "remedy" to this "problem" would be for Apple to say, "we upgraded the launching version of Vpro to M3" (or M4 or V1). All steps forward do not have to be held back if they are otherwise ready because one product is announced for "early next year" with M2. Or maybe M2 is enough horsepower to make Vpro work to its fullest potential as designed? And then the M4 version will have hardware upgrades to keep up with software wanting to push Vpro limits.
There is no big problem here. I would imagine the vast majority of new Apple buyers would have no clue of what CPU was inside unless it is really pushed in the marketing and/or used as a major point of differentiation in a store pitch. It is only a number painted on a chip no buyer will actually ever see. They could paint M36 on the next generation just as easily as M3. The Mwhatever in Vpro could easily have V1 or M68050 or whatever else painted on its CPU.
I would be surprised if the MacBook Air gets an update to the M3 so soon after the initial release, especially since the device is selling so well. In order to ship in October or November, they would already have to be manufacturing them now.
Seems unlikely they’d speed bump the 15” air so soon, but other than that this rumor makes sense. The iMac is due. The 13” Mac book pro is a budget device meant for schools and such. The other thing that keeps getting lost for general consumers is that the base M3 isn’t on par with an M2 Max or Ultra. We don’t see the m3 higher versions till 2024.
The report of M3 MacBook Airs launching in October is mostly speculation.
From Gurman's newsletter in Bloomberg:
"There should be another launch in October, I’m told. The likely topic based on past history? Macs. Now that Apple has gotten the 15-inch MacBook Air and new M2 Ultra-based Macs out the door, the October launch could feature the first Macs with M3 chips. October is too early for new high-end MacBook Pros or desktops, so the first beneficiaries of the new chip should be the next iMac, 13-inch MacBook Air and 13-inch MacBook Pro."
It sounds pretty indefinite.
Like some of you already mentioned, it seems unlikely the 15" MBA will get an M3 so quickly after being introduced with an M2, and it seems unlikely that Apple's MBA lineup would have a 15" M2 and 13" M3. Right now, the M2 MBAs in both sizes are selling quite well for Apple.
From Gurman's newsletter in Bloomberg:
"There should be another launch in October, I’m told. The likely topic based on past history? Macs. Now that Apple has gotten the 15-inch MacBook Air and new M2 Ultra-based Macs out the door, the October launch could feature the first Macs with M3 chips. October is too early for new high-end MacBook Pros or desktops, so the first beneficiaries of the new chip should be the next iMac, 13-inch MacBook Air and 13-inch MacBook Pro."
It sounds pretty indefinite.
Like some of you already mentioned, it seems unlikely the 15" MBA will get an M3 so quickly after being introduced with an M2, and it seems unlikely that Apple's MBA lineup would have a 15" M2 and 13" M3. Right now, the M2 MBAs in both sizes are selling quite well for Apple.
There were rumors Apple had to make product pipeline changes due to COVID. What they’re calling the M2 was suppose to be a mid-generation refresh of M1, but the TMSC 3nm production was delayed and Apple wasn’t getting total priority on chip manufacturing too. M3 was suppose to be M2, so I wouldn’t be surprised they want to hop into it fast. However, I think the Macs that were updated at WWDC won’t get these SOCs until 2024.
It was rumored that Apple licensed Imagination's Ray Tracing IP and was supposed to be included in the A16, but there were issues implementing it in time. So, I believe the next generation GPUs should finally have it. Should give the A17 a huge boost in 3D rendering/modeling.
If they dont do an M3 Supreme, I wont even be interested. I want them to aim for Spaceballs level of ludicrous speed.
I really hope this means a new iMac with M3... my 2017 iMac isn't getting the new macOS update this fall, so this is the perfect time to upgrade. 🥲
Don't even have to think that far back, they launched the 2019 15" MacBook Pro in June and the 16" replaced it by the end of November!
Wait! H
I'm also wondering if the new process node will finally allow Apple/TSMC to create this Quad-Max beast or if that entire scheme was just a pipe dream?
I'm also wondering if the new process node will finally allow Apple/TSMC to create this Quad-Max beast or if that entire scheme was just a pipe dream?
It wasn't shortages as the m3 Yield curve is no different to that achieved by other 'new' chips. Its more likely Apple having bought up a lot of the M2 production thinking there would be mass shortages, was left with a surfeit it wanted to use up.
I do believe the M2 was a stopgap though, which is why I never bought any of the devices and look forward to seeing what the M3 can do.
Shareholders and the stock market. Product announcements are like drugs for the monied class - they always need another fix so they can feel good about things again.
It’s dumb, but that’s the way it is.
I am patiently waiting for an M3 13" MacBook Air, so let's hope Gurman is right!
I agree. Air, Mini, and iMac will be the first to get the M3 and that could be this fall. Pro, Max and then Ultra versions will be 2024. I'd guess WWDC 2024 for the MacBooks and maybe Studios. Mac Pro, never ...?