Obviously they dont want to do it at the moment. All they had to do was replace th A13 Bionic processor already in the studio Display with an M2/M3 chip
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Apple's First M3-Powered Macs Likely to Launch in October
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Things were just not aligned. They want to release the 15" Air now and cannot wait for the M3. This is what you get introducing lot of variants of products. At a certain point they will refresh them at the same time.
There will be. This is why the M2 15MBA came in at a much lower starting price point than many people were expecting. Apple doesn't want to piss off M2 15MBA buyers – and they want a higher 15MBA price point – and with the M3 15MBA this year Apple gets the price point while at the same time being able to tell people who already bought a M2 15MBA that the device isn't already obsolete, it's just the base level 15 MBA and the M3 one is more expensive than what they paid.
The M2 Ultra parity of Mac Studio and Mac Pro makes sense in this downturn market...
Apple did a cheaper then expected Macbook Air 15inch---- ALOT of people were waiting for this, slam dunk.
Mac Studio same performance 3000$ cheaper---- Slam dunk, selling alot to Pros on the fence.
Apple Vision Pro has obviously been in the works for long time, not releasing their M2 variant would have been literal billions in SOC investment in the landfill..
My guess is that in 2024 we get a M3 based consumer version of Apple Vision. Orelse a M2 consumer version and a M3 Vision Pro (Perhaps makes more sense, but due to thermals/power demand I doubt it)
Imagine a M3 based consumer Apple Vision w M3 and built w a polymer optics visor etc. Lighter and cheaper to manufacture. Remember, this is a new release for Apple, there is no point in sitting on better tech, absolutely paramount that they go through their complete launch and get devices out there.
Pretty likely that 'first beneficiaries' comment is relative to the rest of the Mac line up. It probably not that all three would drop in October at the same time. The M2 MBP 13" and MBA were effect gapped by a 1-1.5 months. Decent chance would see something similar here.
iMac -- ship in late Oct - early Nov. as part of 25th anniversary emphasis.
MBP 13" -- ship in late Nov - early Dec
MBA 13" -- ship in mid-Dec - early '24 ( and probably cut the M2 MBA 15" short of a full 12 month run in early '24 )
iPad Pro M3 a bit after that.
The rest roll out Q2-Q4 '24. ( May , June, July and October )
In short, the MBA 13" doesn't have to be the first one. It is the highest volume one out of the three and probably would need to go later just on capacity. Wait for iPhone to go through initial demand bubble and smaller iMac bubble ( after 3 years. ) . If they keep the same 'old' MBP 13" design then it isn't going to take the #1 unit sales spot away from the MBA 13". Especially if Apple keeps them price gapped ( MBA 13" higher).
If the M3 systems cost more the existing M2 systems sales won't crater. If Apple wants to crank up MBA unit sales this holiday season they can push out discounts on the M2 variants. If make the gap even wider the lower prices one will just even more sell more units.
There are two '3nm process' tracks. N3B and N3E. N3B started ramping HVM December '22 and has been running for a while. N3E was suppose to get to HVM this month. The problem is that several months to get either of those kinds of wafers finished. Doing the highest volume Mac 'first' is a bit of a mismatch. N3B has been in HVM but Apple has reportedly been playing a game of 'chicken' with TSMC making them 'eat' all the bad dies. Pretty doubtful that TSMC would sign up to 'eat' bigger ( higher margin for Apple ) dies to burn more of their own money faster. A17 plausible. The M3 not as much. The M3 Pro/Max probably not.
Somewhat unlikely this is all going to roll out like the A15 and M1 did. The wafer costs and processing times are different. And Apple doesn't particularly need some kind of 'Big Bang' explosion of a very broad line up of M3 powered system in a short amount of time.
The reason N3B is being wound down is 'too few wafers' projected to be purchased. It somewhat doesn't make much sense for Apple to make their already 'small' wafer order even smaller by dropping the M-series from the mix.
Depending upon where Apple was in depth of design to move to N3E would cost time and money to move to an incompatible library design. N3B and N3E aren't in the same 'design family', so have to relayout the whole chip again.
It would make sense for the A17 to be 'done twice' if the A17 was going to trickle down into 'plain' iPad in 2-3 years so Apple would need to still be selling A17's in 3-4 years for 'new' product. Similarly Apple will still be selling 'n-2' iPhone 15's as 'new' 3 years from now. The total lifecycle unit volume would be high enough to support two fab roll outs ( Apple once did a SoC split across Samsung and TSMC and didn't loose their shirt. Somewhat similar situation).
The M3 Pro/Max/Ultra do not have any other products to 'hand me down' into to be sold as 'new product' 1.5-2 years from now. So if N3B is sunsetting in 2 years, then really not going to make more of those over the long term anyway. Doesn't particularly matter if the underlying fab process gets retired if stop using the SoC in 'new' products.
The iPad Air (and to lessor extent Vision Pro) are 'hand me down' products for the plain Mn series. It wouldn't be hard though for Apple to just skip the M3 ( go a bit longer on M2 iteration and wait not quite so long to move to M4).
A iPad Air with a M2 is still going to be a very capable tablet 2 years from now at that price point.
How fast Apple is going to iterate the Vision series is still up in the air. Folks expecting that to change every 12 months are probably going to be disappointed.
How likely is it that Apple used the N3B node for the Apple Vision R1 chips? And are doing M3 and A17 on N3E? There has been no talk of what process the R1s are built on, from what I can gather.
They would be in the need to have quite a stockpile of R1 chips, for the consumer version etcetc.
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Just because AAPL is worth more right now doesn’t mean it will be in another 15 years. I believe Tim and co are taking all the money they can out of the company. They’re selling out what customers want rather than being visionary about devices. Things like the notches on displays bother me as they’re the design language of Apple. There is no way that should be how people can tell one is using an Apple product. Losing Scott Forstall and Jonny Ive means the long term will not fair as well. There should be a visionary at the top not a bean counter who only cares about his $100m+ per year in stock grants. Steve didn’t care about the money or power. He only cared about making amazing products that truly enriched people’s lives. Tell me that’s what Tim or any of his executive team cares about??? If they do, letting all the design talent and visionaries go sure was the wrong thing to do.
Apple doesn't always make sense. I give you the 13" M2 MacBook Pro.
A17 on N3E ? Probably zero chance (at least for 2023 ). N3E just went into high production this month and about 3 months to get a working chip out of that. It is too late. The iPhone needs something that is HVM production in March-May timeframe in order to start factory production in June-July so that have a high enough inventory of phones to sell in late September.
Since Apple probably wants to sell A17's far into the future , there could be a 2nd version that comes out in Fall 2024 that is N3E. The non-Pro iPhone 16 would get it (and that phone would be sold for about 3 years). It would/could trickle down to the iPad 2024-25 (and AppleTV and/or Studio Displays later also )
The long term roadmaps years ago for N3E were 12 months after N3 (which is no called N3B). The 2H '22 made that the more viable target for something that needed to be in production in Q2 '23. Not something that wasn't going to be in production untll the same quarter the iPhone shipped. Not making microwave popcorn here. There is a very long logistic train in getting a phone out ( fields certifications , silicon production , etc. )
IMHO, there is a pretty good chance the R1 is N3-something. In part, because the Vision Pro has to support two SoCs on a single battery. Lowering the power consumption on the R1 as the 'second' SoC is a pretty good chance a top priority. There is limited power and cooling available. So why would skip getting a lower power consuming SoC in there is big head scratcher?
The heavy lifting Ai/ML inference is all on the R1. So give up compute performance, why give that up being conservative? If the computations don't get done in real time that just have 'yet another VR headset'. If want to throw down a large barrier to matching the features ... the R1 is where to put in max effort into.
Could the R1 has a short lifespan ( for an Apple SoC). Yes. Is Apple charging super discount prices for it. Probably not ( the headset if > $3K. So the charge back for the R1 isn't necessarily very low. )
There is a very good chance that the A17 and M3 were done basically at the same time in parallel. So if the A17 was way too deep into design to switch to N3E then the M3-series was likely in the same boat. If N3B had very smoothly rolled out in early Q3 '22 ( the first half of 2H '22) then perhaps the M3 could have popped out before the A17. The problem isn't the 'plain' M3 it is the M3 Pro/Max/Ultra/etc. I don't see the point of putting in lots of work to design those as N3B and then doing a 'flush' and throwing the extra costs of redoing those as N3E. It doesn't really 'buy' much since those SoC will get 'dumped' anyway ( no other products to 'hand me down' to).
Apple could get tripped up if they were going to put the Ulra and 'bigger than Ultra' on a slow cadence M n + 2 updates. So a M3 Ultra would followed up by M5 Ultra. if it was that slow then N3B would/could be risky. If they keep it 18-20 months then it isn't.
It is only if Apple is hyper interested in selling the M3 3-4 years from now that makes reflowing to N3E worth the effort.
You are presuming the 'consumer version' is coming next year (2024). If it comes in 2025-6 then there can be an R2. Recent rumor was 'end of 2025'.
Cheaper Apple Vision Headset Likely to Launch by End of 2025
Apple still plans to launch a more affordable version of its Vision Pro headset by the end of 2025, with the non-Pro model likely to be called...
www.macrumors.com
As for stockpiles. If Apple was thinking they were going to sell 0.7-1M Vision Pros in the first year and are only going to sell 0.5-0.6M , then there is a potential substantive stockpile of R1's right there.
By end of 2025 TSMC N3P would be a more rational choice for the Rn SoC for the 2nd generation headsets. The battery life of this 1st gen isn't all that great. Why Apple would want to stick with then 3 or2 year old fab process at that point would be highly questionable.
The 'consumer' one likely isn't going to be all that relatively affordable either. $1,499-1,899 . Probably going to need the same Rn chip is both the Pro and 'plain' Vision head set to drive enough volume to amortize the R&D costs for the Rn SoC. Decent chance the vision stuff ends up like the Watch. Same SoC and processor power across the line up. The enclosure and add-on sensors and etc are driving most of the cost difference.
Apple probably can't afford to squat on the R1 for more than 2 years. Qualcomm or Microsoft or someone else has a decent chance to catch them if Apple sat completely still for 2+ years. In early 2026, they'll need to have something newer and better than R1.
1. Better battery life than any other Mac laptop. There is not a large , substantive faction of the laptop users that do not want hyper long battery life?
2. Some folks like the touchbar.
3. Fan so doesn't thermal throttle.
If buying on looks , lightest , 'newest shiny notched screen ' then no . Using the proven , mature parts for the rest of the system keeps the costs down. Which is why MBP 13" is #2 selling Mac.
Doubtful the MBA 15" is going to 'kill' the MBP 13". MBP 13" still has the battery life advantage. (MBA 15" matches the MBA 13". Does not use bigger chassis to push a battery advantage. Apple added just enough battery (and weight) to offset the bigger screen and stopped. Still has touchbar (for those that like it). Still less likely to thermal throttle than the MBA 15". It basically has same differentials it has over the MBA 13".
If Apple tweaked the MBP 13" to put MagSafe and incremental upgrade on webcam (without adding a notch) that would be all the fixes it would need. to stay either#2 or #3 in sales.
Pretty good chance the MBA 15" eats from out of MBP 14" sales than it does out of MBP 13" ones, but it could be enough to drop the MBP 13" to #3. More than likely though the MBA 15" more so brings in more switchers (and new users ) and doesn't really 'kill' either one of those two. Lots of folks didn't buy a Mac at all because there wasn't a more reasonably priced 15" options.
This was exactly my thoughts. They ship M3 Macs in October and then sometime in H1 of next year you get Vision Pro with M2?
I definitely don’t think the 13” Air will update with M3 that would be extremely strange in the line up.
I do think that the 13” MBP could update though. I think Apple really need to give the 13” MBP a design refresh… maybe similar design to the Air although slightly thicker, 120hz LCD display, additional ports (maybe SD card slot), better webcam, fan design, 14” display and M3 priced at say $1499, that way it would make sense in the lineup being a sort of middle ground laptop. So it has a few bells and whistles of the pro’s but not as expensive.
It would also then make sense why the Air 15” launched with M2 and not M3, as I presume similar to the iPad line up, the Airs will the latest chip towards the end of the chips cycle then the Pro’s get the latest chipset shortly afterwards.
In this scenario the line up would look like:
MacBook Air 13” M2 - $1099
MacBook Air 15” M2 - $1299
MacBook Pro 14” M3 - $1499
MacBook Pro 14” M3 Pro/Max - $1999
MacBook Pro 16” M3 Pro/Max - $2499
I also wouldn’t be surprised if they drop the Pro naming from the 13” Pro and just call it MacBook and possibly launch another size at some point.
Tim Cook loves a line up to suit all budgets and currently the mac line up need a max priced between the 15” Air and the 14” Pro.
I do think that the 13” MBP could update though. I think Apple really need to give the 13” MBP a design refresh… maybe similar design to the Air although slightly thicker, 120hz LCD display, additional ports (maybe SD card slot), better webcam, fan design, 14” display and M3 priced at say $1499, that way it would make sense in the lineup being a sort of middle ground laptop. So it has a few bells and whistles of the pro’s but not as expensive.
It would also then make sense why the Air 15” launched with M2 and not M3, as I presume similar to the iPad line up, the Airs will the latest chip towards the end of the chips cycle then the Pro’s get the latest chipset shortly afterwards.
In this scenario the line up would look like:
MacBook Air 13” M2 - $1099
MacBook Air 15” M2 - $1299
MacBook Pro 14” M3 - $1499
MacBook Pro 14” M3 Pro/Max - $1999
MacBook Pro 16” M3 Pro/Max - $2499
I also wouldn’t be surprised if they drop the Pro naming from the 13” Pro and just call it MacBook and possibly launch another size at some point.
Tim Cook loves a line up to suit all budgets and currently the mac line up need a max priced between the 15” Air and the 14” Pro.
I am in the market for a 13" MacBook Air and am planning to wait for an M3 model, since I dragged my feet on getting into an M2 when it first launched.
Given now recently the 15" M2 Air was introduced, I do wonder if Apple will hold the Air line until early next year before giving it an M3 chip across both sizes. The 13" M2 machine is by no means long-in-the-tooth at this point, with it's new design, display, and camera.
Anyone else think that the M2 Air's will have a little longer than normal life span so that Apple can give the 15" some more room to sell before updating the full line?
Given now recently the 15" M2 Air was introduced, I do wonder if Apple will hold the Air line until early next year before giving it an M3 chip across both sizes. The 13" M2 machine is by no means long-in-the-tooth at this point, with it's new design, display, and camera.
Anyone else think that the M2 Air's will have a little longer than normal life span so that Apple can give the 15" some more room to sell before updating the full line?
A 15'' Air with M3 and ProMotion display (miniLED or OLED) next year would really be THE ideal machine for me.
I’m not really sure about that. I didn’t really like the notch design when I went to the store and saw it myself on the other MacBooks, but maybe it’s not that bad practically. I would’ve just gone for the M2 Air if they both had the same design since the Air was all I needed as I’m not a heavy laptop user. The TouchBar is nice to have and is actually quite useful for me, but I still don’t mind it not being there.
I was actually going for the M1 MacBook Air at first, but I somehow ended up getting the 13-inch M2 MacBook Pro instead.
Anyways, I’m planning to keep this laptop for a few good years, and I’ll most likely replace it with a MacBook Air when it completely dies.
Interesting!
I've had both MBP and MBA's over the years, no real favorite, but it depends how much I've carried it with me.
Haven't considered the notch on the MBA that is out now at least 😒 it's not pretty, at all!
Not sure I need the power of the MBP today on a portable, but if I get away from the notch it might be worth it. How much use do you have of the Touch Bar, in real life and in the emoji life. Can be really useful I can imagine.
There will be a few rounds to go over this, both before the event, and a few more after we know exactly what will change in the MBA/MBP department for Apple 2023/24.
I would not be that surprised if it actually would be using M3 or a 3nm version of M2 due to the obvious efficiency gap. Apple just might not have wanted to overshadow AR features with the discussion of the new CPU. Timing works perfectly.
Been hoping for a new IMac for a while now, still chuging away on my 09 24'inch imac. Please give a new new one with larger screen, better thermals, more ports please and dont skimp! Bring back after purchase options for ram and HD replacement or upgrade if needed/wanted. it will either be a new imac for me or a tricked out mac mini. And lets keep the price down sub $2k pretty please for starts.
Was expecting M3 to launch only by 2024. iMac should be one of the first to get it. Don’t think the Macbook Air will be updated to M3 this year.
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I seriously doubt they'll match those sales figures in the near future. It was driven by the introduction of Apple Silicon plus a major jump in remote working. Most people won't replace those machines until they are 3-5 years old. Heck, I'm only considering to replace my M1 Air because I had to buy it with 8 GB ram because I needed a new laptop fast. But there's a good chance I'll fully move my work to cloud (Visual Studio Code backed by EC2) before M3 comes out, then I'll have very little incentive to upgrade what will be at that point essentially a glorified thin client.
It's already $100 more for the same specs as the 13 inch version, while every other notebook manufacturer prices the smaller notebooks higher. Where the hell would they raise the price even more? And if they think they can raise prices with every new chip version, they'll gonna have a really bad time.
That design, especially the old, wedge shaped Air are the most beautiful laptops ever made. The new ones are painfully ugly with their boxy shape and notches. So looks might be actually a reason to buy them. Plus it doesn't have that useless abomination called magsafe. If only they didn't had that stupid touchbar.
Mac sales aren't awful at all, and MacBook sales we simply do not know (but there's no reason to believe they're doing poorly). Recent Q2 revenue numbers for the Mac were:
| 2014 Q2 | 5.5M |
| 2015 Q2 | 5.6M |
| 2016 Q2 | 5.0M |
| 2017 Q2 | 5.8M |
| 2018 Q2 | 5.8M |
| 2019 Q2 | 5.5M |
| 2020 Q2 | 5.4M |
| 2021 Q2 | 9.1M |
| 2022 Q2 | 10.9M |
| 2023 Q2 | 7.2M |
So, sure, we're 21% below 2021, and 34% below 2022. But if you take the average of the years before (5.5M), we're still 31% above that. Similarly, if you take the median of all years 2014 through 2022 (5.6M), still 29% above.
2021 and 2022 were clearly outliers, and we all know why: increased demand due to COVID 19 WFH policies.
So I don't think Apple is worried about "awful" Mac sales figures.