AidenShaw said:
If the Macrumours moderators were smart, you would be promoted from "newbie" to "demi-god" based on this post alone.
William Henry Gates III knows that mobile computing is the next big thing, and has been pushing MS for years to be the lead player in this space.
Today, while at work, I saw a CNN story about a special on TV tonight. Looked very interesting, so I wanted to make sure that my TiVo caught it (I have to go into the city tonight for a business dinner, so I couldn't do it after I got home (even if I remembered)).
I could have gone to TiVo's central website to program my home TiVo to grab it (my TiVo's on the home 802.11 LAN and regularly phones home to the TiVo servers for instructions) - but no need.
I have a Slingbox (
http://www.slingmedia.com) connected to the TiVo, so I opened my cellphone (Samsung i730 from Verizon with 700 Kbps EVDO internet connection) and connected directly to the Slingbox. A couple of clicks here and there, and I added tonight's show to the TiVo "grab" list.
On the way, however, it happened that the TiVo was tuned to the Weather Channel. The few seconds of Weather Channel that I saw when the phone connected showed a dark band of thunderstorms moving into the area.
After telling TiVo to record the special, I went back to the weather channel. Looked like bad news, big rainstorm moving in during the evening commute.
That was a pretty ugly prospect, so I changed my plans to take Caltrain into the city (if you live in the Bay Area, "the city" is San Francisco proper - and if you live in Silicon Valley, going into "the city" during an evening commute thunderstorm is not a pleasant thought). Much better to take the commuter rail (Caltrain) into the city.
But I didn't know today's Caltrain schedule, so I opened Internet Explorer on my phone, and typed in the Caltrain URL.
A few clicks on the touch screen, and I saw that the northbound "bullet" trains were at 4:58, 5:37, and 5:58. The 5:37 would be perfect. (I mentally kicked myself for not having the current PocketPC schedule already on the phone.)
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This is how *I* used Windows Mobile on my cellphone *today*.
Apple is *nowhere* on the exploding growth of connected devices. Nowhere. The train left the station....
As usual, William Gates, III gets a little help from his friend Aiden Shaw...
No, the situation is not as obvious as you perceive; in fact, the mobile market is NOT up for grabs as some of you may imply.
I am truly happy that Apple did not start this crazy iPhone adventure, and I am sure they have more than a thousand reasons not to.
1) In terms of devices, the mobile market is clearly shared by a few makers; it's a sort of oligopoly between Nokia, Motorola, Samsung and Siemens. The rest is the rest, catching scraps on the floor of a saturated scenario. It's a similar situation as with the digital download market. Apple totally dominates, and 2 or 3 niche players barely make money with the remaining 25% of the market.
2) Apple has NO expertise in mobile phone industry, and as TS showed, it would again delegate "powers" to another maker/designer. This means that, as with the ROKR/STNKR, Apple would have limited say in the final delivery of the product. The content would be the key; but honestly, few people care about OS-driven features that have been there for YEARS, such as calendars, phone book, syncing, mp3 and games. You want something else? Buy a laptop.
As for Treo or Blackberry supporters, I can only loathe those little things full of buttons and superfluous capabilities. Sure, Treos seems to be doing fine in some markets, but that doesn't mean Palm is in wonderful shape...they have a proportionally paltry revenue, trading today at around 22 and having a higher P/E ratio than Apple.
People need simplicity, and Apple IS about simplicity. However, the mobile market ALREADY has its simple models and Apple would add nothing to that, apart from a nice white design by Ive.
3) Mr. Shaw then gives us a long, wonderful display of how to use a complicated device; surely for tech-savvy people like him, Windows Mobile seems like a good proposition. But he seemingly forgets that MUCH simpler alternatives exist. His 3 actions were:
a) I wanna record a show;
b) I check the weather;
c) I need to see the train schedule.
on a), I could have done it from my computer at work; on b) I usually check weather right after entering and before leaving office; on c), I can send a SMS to SBB (the train company) in Switzerland, and get all the next schedules for my intended destinations.
Now tell me, which alternative is cheaper...1 quick browse for free PLUS one SMS, or a lengthy small-screen Internet session on the mobile phone?
4) Handheld makers fight a sorry battle, as shipments fell almost 20% in 2005; fortunately, Apple doesn't make these mistakes again...they ONLY enter a market when they KNOW they will make clear money. And the handheld market is far from being attractive right now, no matter how enthusiastic savvy users might look.
5) Those that advocate Apple's entry into this market have no clue about the crazy mish-mash of network operators, incumbents and content providers. You may say that Apple's difficulties in getting music and videos for iTunes can be multiplied by 100 in the mobile market. Where would they make money if content, interconnection fees and exclusive deals make revenue go elsewhere? No, iPhone fans don't answer that.
I am HAPPY that Apple is not joining this crazy loss-making war. Keep making Macs and iPods...it's a much safer bet.
