Apple's Predicted Share of 2010 U.S. Mobile Advertising Market Slashed to Under 10%

[MacRumors]

In a stark reversal from projections made just over two months ago, Bloomberg Businessweek reports that new predictions from research firm IDC peg Google as taking a whopping 59% share of the U.S. mobile advertising market for 2010 while Apple is expected to garner only 8.4% of the U.S. market with its own iAd program. IDC's earlier report had projected that Apple and Google would finish the year neck-and-neck, with each holding about 21% of the market.

The sudden change appears to come, however, not from Apple grossly underperforming earlier expectations but from IDC grossly underestimating the total size of the U.S. mobile advertising market and Google's share of it. The earlier report had cited a total market size of under $250 million for 2009, while the new report claims that 2009 saw a market of $368 million.

Earlier this year, IDC projected Google would lose market share this year. It revised estimates after Google's October announcement. "Google is a lot bigger than we thought," Weide says. "We rectified that, based on the numbers they provided in their last earnings call."

Those underestimations have led to a dramatic upward revision in Google's market share numbers for 2009 and 2010, with all of its competitors, including Apple, seeing corresponding significant decreases in their market share numbers. IDC's September report claimed that Google held a 27% share in 2009 when including data for AdMob, which it acquired late in the year, but the firm's new report claims that Google held 48.6% of the market on its own in 2009, with AdMob holding an additional 8.4% share for a total of 57% of the expanded market.

The revised projections for Apple show the company holding 8.4% of the market for 2010, good for second place in an industry it hadn't even entered in 2009. Quattro Wireless, which was acquired by Apple right around the beginning of 2010, held 5.4% of the market in 2009.

Apple is continuing to expand its iAd program, pushing out worldwide delivery of ads early last month and following that up with announcements that it would be adding programs for advertisers in Japan and Europe this month and early next year.

Article Link: Apple's Predicted Share of 2010 U.S. Mobile Advertising Market Slashed to Under 10%

 

[appleexpert15]

Yea but this is putting up apple's 1 phone against how many? Almost a hundred or so by now?

 

[davids8477]

Don't you love all these "experts" who get well paid for GUESSING!
The are as bad as the weather forecasters - I take that back - at least there is some hard science in weather forecasting.

 

[HiVolt]

Well this just highlights that advertisers aren't all giddy about Apple's controlling nature of the creative process, big names like Adidas pulling out.

Alternatives do exist to advertise on the iPhone, and they are spending their dollars elsewhere.

I think also there are ver high minimums, I think I read $10M commitment. That severily limits the number of advertisers, and the big boys can certainly decide to go elsewhere.

 

[jwesty5]

Percent is percent. It doesn't matter how big the market is. If they had predicted Apple would have 21% of the market and they only have 8% that is underperforming no matter how you spin it. Basically other companies were able to take advantage of the growing market and Apple was not.

 

[AidenShaw]

Apple's fault

Yea but this is putting up apple's 1 phone against how many? Almost a hundred or so by now?

Who's fault is that but Apple's?

And, the logic behind that is faulty. Having two models of phones doesn't double your market share. Having four models doesn't quadruple it. Having phones that meet different needs is what increases market share. The "one size fits all" pushes some people over to Android phones that meet their needs better.

And, of course, Apple sells two models of Iphone - not one.

 

[Consultant]

You can get a large market share if you give your stuff away.

Also, Apple did not set any market share goals, so it cannot be slashed.

 

[TimmyDee]

I wonder if the erroneous report played a role in the DoJ approval of Google's acquisition of AdMob.

 

[AidenShaw]

I wonder if the erroneous report played a role in the DoJ approval of Google's acquisition of AdMob.

Ludicrous, considering that Google announced the AdMob buy in Nov 2009 and closed in May 2010.

Iads was announced in April 2010.

The "correction" was about projections made in September 2010.

The attempt at suggesting a conspiracy is a FAIL.

 

[Stella]

Don't you love all these "experts" who get well paid for GUESSING!
The are as bad as the weather forecasters - I take that back - at least there is some hard science in weather forecasting.

But yet, when Macrumours publish a positive Analyst-Apple-Report many people here are ready to lick it up... and take the report as being accurate.

Apple are finding iAds very tough sell, due to being expensive and having a lot of control over the content. Advertisers are used to more freedom.

Yea but this is putting up apple's 1 phone against how many? Almost a hundred or so by now?

So? Android was designed to be deployed on many devices, from level entry up to High spec'd devices. This shows the success of Android.. If the consumer didn't want Android they wouldn't buy it, period.

 

[nagromme]

Who's fault is that but Apple's?

And, the logic behind that is faulty. Having two models of phones doesn't double your market share. Having four models doesn't quadruple it. Having phones that meet different needs is what increases market share. The "one size fits all" pushes some people over to Android phones that meet their needs better.

And, of course, Apple sells two models of Iphone - not one.

This isn’t about mobile market share, it’s about mobile advertising market share.

Apple’s gotten into advertising, but Google IS an advertising company.

You could also look at OS sales revenue of Apple vs. Google (zero). But Apple’s an OS company. Google isn’t.

This is just about one facet of what Apple does. Not about the reasons why Verizon customers choose an Android phone over an iPhone

 

[GoodWatch]

But yet, when Macrumours publish a positive Analyst-Apple-Report many people here are ready to lick it up... and take the report as being accurate.

Apple are finding iAds very tough sell, due to being expensive and having a lot of control over the content. Advertisers are used to more freedom.



So? Android was designed to be deployed on many devices, from level entry up to High spec'd devices. This shows the success of Android.. If the consumer didn't want Android they wouldn't buy it, period.

Save your breath, valid remarks like these only fall on deaf ears and if arguments can't save the bacon you will be called a troll

 

[paul4339]

These new numbers make much more sense... i can't see how Apple's iAds can have equal share to Google's, since iAds only works on Apple's platform; and Apple only has 20% (or so) smartphone market share.


P.

 

[ZephyrMontego]

I think the important thing to keep in mind here is that some poor schnook (and his/her boss?) probably got fired at IDC. This is a pretty high profile screw-up.

 

[iPhysicist]

I am glad about it. Really! Do you like to be bothered by ads? stay as as ad free as possible.

 

[BaldiMac]

Apple are finding iAds very tough sell, due to being expensive and having a lot of control over the content. Advertisers are used to more freedom.

Apple has about a 25% share of the install base for smartphone users. So iAd has a 30-35% share of the ads on the iPhone by these estimates. And it was available only half the year. Is that bad? It sounds great to me.

 

[franswa za]

another analysis............ by whom?.......yawn, gasp?, whatever

 

[a.gomez]

guess thats why you have news like Android Angry Birds projected to take $1m per month by the end of the year in ad revenue via Google/AdMob

 

[bwillwall]

Im dissapointed in iAds, not the iAd market itself, but the companies making crap ads for it. Its just as bad as googles except that they can view them in the app. They should be really good with how much beter iAd allows them to be.

 

[carmenodie]

These new numbers make much more sense... i can't see how Apple's iAds can have equal share to Google's, since iAds only works on Apple's platform; and Apple only has 20% (or so) smartphone market share.


P.

this is about the click traffic and not actual buying power. You can have as much mobile ad share all you want but that doesn't mean the advertiser will sell more stuff. The formula is about ad clicking, not buying.
But Google gets paid no matter if you pay for a product an ad showcases or not. Same for Apple.

 

[Boghog]

Isn't this comparing apples and pears?
For Google advertising is where their income comes from - it's their main business. They started way earlier and should have well developed relationships with many partners.
For Apple it's a new business segment that is mainly supposed to help app developers make money on free (or cheap) apps - thereby making the app store and thus the iPhone more attractive to consumers, which is where they make their money. Even if it never goes beyond 10% it might still be enough to achieve that goal.

 

[samab]

Im dissapointed in iAds, not the iAd market itself, but the companies making crap ads for it. Its just as bad as googles except that they can view them in the app. They should be really good with how much beter iAd allows them to be.

It doesn't matter how good your ads are --- if you can't increase sales of your product, then it's a dud. Apple's "1984" ad and Wendy's "Where's the beef?" ad won artistic awards left and right --- but they were duds in improving sales. Steve Jobs was ousted soon in 1985 and Wendy's had to restructure their operations in 1986.

They rather make crappy ads that improve sales.

 

[CFreymarc]

This a sign of yet another Wall Street insider short sell scam? I mean Apple stock has been climbing steadily and some may see this as time to "cut it down to size."

 

[uraniumwilly]

"The earlier report had cited a total market size of under $250 million for 2009, while the new report claims that 2009 saw a market of $368 million."

For a year long market stat that's still chicken feed. This market has just barely gotten off the ground.

 

[MacinDoc]

Well, given that every time you do a Google search, Google gets advertising revenue, what do you expect? AdMob is only a small portion of Google's advertising revenue. Makes me wonder why Google's purchase of AdMob was approved. Certainly, if the DoJ took this into account in its deliberations, the acquisition would never have been approved. So I guess you could say that Google deliberately avoided reporting the majority of its advertising revenues in those proceedings. Comparing iAds to Google's similar mobile advertising service, AdMob, the have similar market shares.