That's not really the point is it? Hypotheticals beget hypotheticals is more the point.
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Apple's Profit Downturn and Negative Customer Opinions Threaten 'Decade-Long Malaise' for Company
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It's always easy to criticize the people doing the creating. What would they know truly about what's going on internally at Apple. I'll admit that it doesn't seem like they're innovating at the same rate that they used to. They just don't wow us as much anymore. But to say that that doesn't mean there isn't anything wow-worthy in the works is a little bit short sighted. A decade long malaise? Give me a break!
Right so you assume the share price will hit 0? If apple can be seen to still be a profitable company, especially when re-organized, that is unlikely to occur.
From apple's financial statements, we know that Apple can still turn profits without an iPhone. Thus can still be an investment target.
Also, Investor issue can be minimized. It wouldn't be impossible for apple to turn themselves into a private company - depending on how much the company was valued.
Anyway, this scenario of apple of losing iPhone from its product lineup isn't going to happen anytime soon.
From apple's financial statements, we know that Apple can still turn profits without an iPhone. Thus can still be an investment target.
Also, Investor issue can be minimized. It wouldn't be impossible for apple to turn themselves into a private company - depending on how much the company was valued.
Anyway, this scenario of apple of losing iPhone from its product lineup isn't going to happen anytime soon.
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If Apple lost 60% of its revenue it will all of a sudden be that same value and size as plenty of other companies out there, now these other companies will not have just overnight decided to dump that 50% of its revenue, so as an investor you'll dump your stock from any corporation that does such a stupid wreck less thing and invest in other companies, now all of a sudden the same size and bigger, to get a return on your investment. Big investors couldn't care less that it's flipping Apple!
I have no idea why on earth you think any giant coporation dumping overnight over 60% of its revenu through its own choice means it would still have investors? I guess you feel because it's Apple then it's different to anyone else?
Whilst I'm not one of those people in the "Steve would never have..." camp - overlooking the guy's own flaws - I do think it's important to recognise that the Apple of before and following Tim Cooks appointment as CEO is both better and worse. To the longtime Apple customer, surely this cannot be refuted.
I think their web/cloud services have improved (though it's debatable whether these improvements would have happened anyway), which is a sign that they recognised the future was not 'app containers' afterall. I also think that the way they are catering to customers different tastes has, for the most part been successful. (If the Apple Watch and it's £49 rubber bands were not so expensive, I would call it a stroke of genius).
But as mentioned, they are also worse off in many - and perhaps more - ways. In a bid to compete with other companies, they are trying to accommodate too many product lines and services, instead of just focusing on fewer things better. They are consistently trying to accommodate an elitist market, rather than designing more affordable products for a greater number of people. Their retail stores are inclusive and borderline arrogant. Their quality control, at times, has been extremely questionable for things that you would expect to have been ironed out before launch.
And their ability to throw money around at things like Project Titan is not impressive; it merely proves they're just trying to see what sticks, rather than sowing seeds with the company's own creative strengths.
But I think worst of all, they're now doing something that Jobs was adamant Apple would never do. Market research. This for me is Apple's greatest sin right now. Instead of creating trends, they're simply following them and trying to play catch up with other companies. This comes off very awkwardly. Keynotes, suddenly, star comedians and bad actors who also happened to be rich executives, utilised for the audience because they happened to have different ethnicities and social classes. How convenient. Hey - I never get tired of that Soccer Mom character who just loves shopping! And we gotta have a black chick to demonstrate Apple Music because, y'know, she's sassy!
There is also the hiring of people like Angela Ahrendts, which says a lot about the company's ambitions to hone on status and building brand strength through quite artificial means. A brand takes care of itself when you have great products, and should not need to be force fed.
I actually think the best thing that could happen right now to happen is to go through a 'bad' patch (though I find this difficult to believe when you're holding hundreds of billions of dollars). It might make them rethink their priorities.
I think their web/cloud services have improved (though it's debatable whether these improvements would have happened anyway), which is a sign that they recognised the future was not 'app containers' afterall. I also think that the way they are catering to customers different tastes has, for the most part been successful. (If the Apple Watch and it's £49 rubber bands were not so expensive, I would call it a stroke of genius).
But as mentioned, they are also worse off in many - and perhaps more - ways. In a bid to compete with other companies, they are trying to accommodate too many product lines and services, instead of just focusing on fewer things better. They are consistently trying to accommodate an elitist market, rather than designing more affordable products for a greater number of people. Their retail stores are inclusive and borderline arrogant. Their quality control, at times, has been extremely questionable for things that you would expect to have been ironed out before launch.
And their ability to throw money around at things like Project Titan is not impressive; it merely proves they're just trying to see what sticks, rather than sowing seeds with the company's own creative strengths.
But I think worst of all, they're now doing something that Jobs was adamant Apple would never do. Market research. This for me is Apple's greatest sin right now. Instead of creating trends, they're simply following them and trying to play catch up with other companies. This comes off very awkwardly. Keynotes, suddenly, star comedians and bad actors who also happened to be rich executives, utilised for the audience because they happened to have different ethnicities and social classes. How convenient. Hey - I never get tired of that Soccer Mom character who just loves shopping! And we gotta have a black chick to demonstrate Apple Music because, y'know, she's sassy!
There is also the hiring of people like Angela Ahrendts, which says a lot about the company's ambitions to hone on status and building brand strength through quite artificial means. A brand takes care of itself when you have great products, and should not need to be force fed.
I actually think the best thing that could happen right now to happen is to go through a 'bad' patch (though I find this difficult to believe when you're holding hundreds of billions of dollars). It might make them rethink their priorities.
I would be incredibly happy if they actually upgraded every single one of its product lines in a more timely mannner. If that's too difficult they could at least simplify some of their product lines. They offer too many options on some lines which only create more stress on its supply chain. Which Cook is supposed to be so good at.
I'm a fan of Apple only because a lot of their products have worksd well and get job done. Too many people on these boards are fanboys willing to buy and accept anything apple does. If more people were brand neutral and tried other options Apple would be forced to step up. Perhaps that will be the case soon with its first year or annual revenue decline since 2001.
Phones are also a declining market: just like PCs, everybody who wants one already has one, and the technology has matured beyond the point where there's a compelling technical reason to upgrade every 18 months. The "18-month-contract" business model that helped drive upgrades is also becoming less ubiquitous. Unlike PCs, Phones are a bit more of a fashion item, and thus more in the "comfort zone" of the current Apple management. Doesn't sound like the iPhone 8 is going to have any groundbreaking new functionality (wireless charging is hardly new) - at best, just a incrementally-improved iPhone 7 in a swanky new glass enclosure - at worst, a badly compromised iPhone 7 crippled to make it fit in the non-negotiable swanky glass enclosure.
However, "fashion-driven" markets are also more fickle: tomorrow, some reality TV star could sign an endorsement contract with Xaomi or HTC, pose in a swimsuit with "their" phone and grab a huge chunk of iPhone sales.
The iPhone today seems to be about where the iPod was when the iPhone was launched - still selling well but with the writing large and clear on the wall for anybody paying attention. If Apple hadn't launched the iPhone when it did, someone else would have made a half-decent media player/phone and destroyed the iPod market a few years down the line.
If you're coming from an 2008 MBP, my 2011 quad-i7 MBP could show it a clean pair of heels performance-wise and a 2014 rMBP will stomp it into the dust size- and power- wise. If a 2016 MBP didn't feel "stellar" alongside a 2008 model then we wouldn't need to sit around debating the future of the Mac because Cook would already have been laughed off stage.
Problem is, c/f a 2014/2015 rMBP, the new model is barely faster, to the point that a slight difference in settings (e.g. the new default 'scaled' screen mode) can actually leave it slower. Now, some of that is simply a reflection on the modest progress in CPU/GPU tech in the last couple of years but Apple have exacerbated it by pushing for thin'n'light over performance - you can't even get the max performance out of the chips it uses if they're thermally throttled. Odds are the graphics glitches already being reported are overheating issues.
Woo-hoo you can run two 5k displays off it - but what is the performance of a thermally-limited ultra-mobile GPU going to be like with that many pixels to push? If you're going to use a laptop plugged into two 27" displays then you'd be stupid to sacrifice a single watt of power for the sake of a few mm of thickness, and if you did have such a desktop setup you'll be using an external keyboard - so what's the point of a touch bar or a super-large touchpad? Meanwhile, if you are on the road, you need to fish out a dongle every time someone hands you a USB stick. The design is an unbalanced mess reeking of form-over-function.
...and, along with all of these compromises, they've racked up the price significantly.
Have to say, that if i needed a new Mac tomorrow I'd probably either get the old model (which can drive a 4k/5k display if needed) or go with an iMac + MacBook Air combo.
Tim Cook should give up on this socio-political crap and focus on the products.Sales are tanking every quarter
I'm exactly the same. I was a computer enthusiast since my first computer as a kid (DOS/Norton/W3.11 times). Built countless computers myself. But I got tired of the messy PC world and I switched fully to Mac in 2007 - I found them to be truly superior and exciting. After that I had almost every iPhone model released, many iPads, multiple Airports, Apple TVs, displays, etc. etc. etc. Everything worked together nicely (but for me Mac has always remained essential and central). So as a pro user over the several last years I have increasingly felt neglected, fleeced and figuratively saying almost spitted on by watchband fashion company Apple. Something truly changed for the worst in Apple. Imo it just became big, fat, lazy, greedy. In 10 years Microsoft/Apple roles have completely reversed. For me 2016 was the tipping point. I'm now almost completely switched to powerful Windows 10 desktop as my main workstation (I'm a designer and I NEED a good pro desktop - the years old ovepriced Mac "Pro" trashcan is a total joke) - there are small adjusting problems, but overall I feel happy and very satisfied with the decision. The services I use are now all from Google, Microsoft, Adobe, Dropbox, Spotify. Nothing Apple. I'm free to soon drop iPhone/iPad as well - next spring for mobile computing needs I will get Surface Pro 5 (currently I still use my MBP and iPad Air 2).
To be perfectly honest - I still purchased iPhone 7 plus just a few weeks ago (decided it's still the best overall phone - but if I could, I'd choose Pixel software in iPhone 7 body). Next fall will be a big decision time - if the iPhone 8 will be truly amazing AND if Apple finally lets you choose default apps, I might stick with iPhone. But I will definitely also pay close attention to Pixel gen 2.
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I completely feel your pain. I've been fixing and upgrading A1278s for years here (they were probably the hottest Apple product ever here in Portugal apart from the iPhones and iPods), and most of my customers are very happy with my service and especially their Macs and their modular design (because most of then are designers themselves). I am flabbergasted at Apple's hypocritical stance on the environment, with their fully-soldered, disposable machines. I don't care whether slotted components would cause more visits to the Genius Bar, the cost/benefit ratio to the environment would still be better than with this Touch Bar model BS, and the loyal Apple customers who bought those and may have to fork over craploads of money if and when they malfunction wouldn't be and feel as screwed over if their machine was more modular.
And now, my gf is on the verge of buying the base 2016 13'' MBP with function keys model (alas, she wants to save some money and skimp on the memory :/ ), and… what should I tell her, when I am looking at alternatives to the Mac myself right now?
I switched in 2003, back when (then called) Mac OS X was a major selling point and a G4 iMac was a bit underpowered… But I stuck with Apple, because I believed their vision, with all their faults. My problem with Apple isn't their alleged lack of vision; they do have a vision, I just don't believe or agree with it, especially as far as the Mac is concerned. And, for the record, calling Ive's aesthetic “anorectic” is an apt comparison; much like anorexia, this obsession with thinness is kind of like a disorder that may eventually alienate its most loyal customers (the word-of-mouthers, the evangelists, the influencers, in a nutshell, us all in this very forum) and kill the company.
I've been sending a lot of e-mails to Tim Cook as of late; I hope he gets the seriousness of having managed to get the go-to Mac evangelist in a city of 1M (well, not that mant people knows me personally, but I would say that a sizeable percentage of designers and other creatives of my generation heard of me) to consider switching back to PCs again…
Apple can't make a TV. Apple can't make a professional OSX creative tablet. Apple can't make cinema displays. Apple can't make a car (duh). Apple can't make Airport Extremes and time capsules. Apple can't make computers with modern powerful hardware. Apple can't make any of the cutting edge technologies being invented every day for 15 years into new products that have new uses.
Apple can't make anything it didn't make ten years ago. And they can only figure out how make them larger or smaller, thinner, less feature packed, less serviceable, less reliable, and less user-friendly.
Apple is stuck in the past, which is a dangerous place to be for a premium technology company.
There is still a glimmer of hope they'll get it together as a company, but it's fading with each passing day.
Apple can't make anything it didn't make ten years ago. And they can only figure out how make them larger or smaller, thinner, less feature packed, less serviceable, less reliable, and less user-friendly.
Apple is stuck in the past, which is a dangerous place to be for a premium technology company.
There is still a glimmer of hope they'll get it together as a company, but it's fading with each passing day.
I do wish they'd take the pro market seriously. I like their social attitude, I love the iPad Pro and Pencil combo, I like how integrated their services are. Oh and the Apple Watch is neat but that second gen model needed much.
But overall I just hope all this negative stuff causes them to turn things around.
The turning point for me will be when my 2011 iMac dies. It's starting to fall apart now and the moment it finally does I'll need to buy a new machine that day. There's no way I'd buy the current (old) iMac after that price hike. And that will be it for me I imagine, the temptation from VR gaming is too much so I'll just spend that same fortune building a workstation and VR desktop PC.
But overall I just hope all this negative stuff causes them to turn things around.
The turning point for me will be when my 2011 iMac dies. It's starting to fall apart now and the moment it finally does I'll need to buy a new machine that day. There's no way I'd buy the current (old) iMac after that price hike. And that will be it for me I imagine, the temptation from VR gaming is too much so I'll just spend that same fortune building a workstation and VR desktop PC.
You do realize that Apple supports their PCs and mobile devices much longer than Windows does, right? I guess the grass will always be greener.
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If boot camp is so important to you, why didn't you just buy a Windows laptop in the first place?
It's not that Apple doesn't take Pro market seriously, its that they outgrew it completely. In fact, the Pro market changed more than Apple so asking them to take it seriously is like asking Apple to take the PC gaming market seriously. It is now too small for them and the profits aren't there. Especially when you consider how much more revenue hey can find in the consumer mobile markets. This is why we see Microsoft going after table scraps. But Microsoft isn't going to change anything. They are just tying to survive.
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Yes and you can run Mac OS 10.3 on a 20
year old computer. That doesn't make it a good thing. Just because new software runs on old hardware doesn't make it a good experience and doesn't mean it is "supported" either.
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All of the (iLife) products you are talking about are free with every Mac purchase and they are all great software.
I'm not sure how they've changed as you say. They've always catered to the "elite" because of their pricing which has gone down if anything. Except now they cater to a billion more people than they did back in the good ole days. Not sure if I would call that many people "elite".
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What have you replaced those devices with? Do you really think Android has more to offer? Switching is fine but I see zero innovation from Apple's competition. That's their biggest problem. No one is pushing them to be better. They're already the biggest thing with no real contenders.
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So everyone is wrong because you need an old fashioned computer. I know people like you. They're either old guys, require a special computer niche or dead.
Could not agree more - I think, unless something drastic changes technologically [and definitely price wise] my 2015 rMBP will be my last mac.
10.3 is the past. If Apple is following a good path, Sierra should also run on a 10 year old computer without hacking.
Windows 10 might be unsupported on a 10 year old computer (running with Vista or Windows 7 drivers), but the experience is not always bad. It could be worse to run Windows 10 on a newer Pentium, Celeron, Atom or U PC.
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Wrong on all points. Well, I guess it depends on what you consider old guys.
Besides, you are totally missing the point. Follow the thread.
So then the next question is; where do they go?
The professional market is only increasing, I look back at my industry and how quiet it was 10 years ago. Today it's just giant. Apple helped create a new market with mobile apps and games which require a different approach than traditional development. Basically there are more software developers. If Apple won't cater to them where do they go? How will that impact iOS app development and sales? They're already losing marketshare in the mobile market, how will cutting off pro support help them?
Overall I can only see it hurting Apple. You say it's not profitable for them - so, whilst I'm not running Apple, I'd reduce workforce numbers on the MBP line and keep it visually stagnant with the design and layout that served them well over the whole unibody era. Just add in more powerful components as time goes on. That would be considerably cheaper than redesigning it as they recently did.
And for iMacs and Mac Pros - the same. Let them be boring and functional whilst taking a bulk of the workforce from those and putting them into creating some "magical" mobile products.
Well they seem to be thinning out their product lines that's for sure. The new Mac Pro is horrible. I have a 2008 model and I'm sticking with it until either it dies, or they come to their senses and redesign it back to a proper expandable computer. I don't want hard drives hanging off the outside of my desktop computer. It defeats the purpose.
As for the dropping of the displays, big mistake I think. The whole point of apple made products is that they're designed to look good together as well as work great together. It's the same with the dropping of the Airport devices. Why? It's not like there aren't continual improvements in the 802.11 standard that could be implemented into new devices. Just another absolutely disastrous decision from my point of view.
Apple is a company that is all about innovation. Recently, they've become a company about stagnation. Their product announcements become more and more beige all the time. They need to start innovating again, or they will indeed die off, just like they were about to before Jobs came back in.
As for the dropping of the displays, big mistake I think. The whole point of apple made products is that they're designed to look good together as well as work great together. It's the same with the dropping of the Airport devices. Why? It's not like there aren't continual improvements in the 802.11 standard that could be implemented into new devices. Just another absolutely disastrous decision from my point of view.
Apple is a company that is all about innovation. Recently, they've become a company about stagnation. Their product announcements become more and more beige all the time. They need to start innovating again, or they will indeed die off, just like they were about to before Jobs came back in.
"Apple is like a ship with a hole in the bottom, leaking water and Tim Cook is trying to get the ship pointed in the right direction".
Please don't remind us of that event. I was at the time for the first time in 32 years of using Apple products really, really upset with Apple. Those MBPs may be spiffy machines, but not for Pros.
Like another poster, I am patient and don't expect perfection in anything.
But they keep concentrating on iPhones and iPads. What made them great seems forgotten and every once in a while a product escapes Jony Ives insane asylum of thinness.
No new Mac Pro, Mac Mini, no more servers, displays given to LG (without design input), still HDs in their machines, memory limits, dongles inferno, non upgradeable SSDs now, declaring headphone jacks old technology, the new MBPs disasters and the list goes on and on.
If they didn't have that OS, many would have jumped ship long time ago.
We don't need analysts to figure this out. It is so obvious that for the moment they seem totally lost.
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It is not the naysayers and the negativity that is getting to you. It is the realization that Apple currently has a lot of issues and doesn't seem to be able to fix them, which is grinding.
Since they never publish anything real about what they are doing, we don't know if they'll be able to fight their way out of this. For now the ship is spinning like their 5400 rpm hds and far from being steered in the right direction.
And, it isn't even that we have unrealistically high expectations of a once brilliant company. I have gone through
32 years of Apple products and history. There were always some product duds which tanked or were truly bad.
It never dawned on me to look for alternatives, as it all just worked, but props to Microsoft for sticking with the SURFACE and Dell's XPS 15 also looks good.
I do have some time to switch, because I use my MBPs for a long time. (Just bought 2 MBPs mid 2015 and have a 2014 MBP and a 2008 17" MBP which still works , but is at its end of upgradeability)
The usage cycle is now very much cut down with nothing upgradeable and they have raised the entry pricing into the stratosphere for what they are offering.
The only way to get the maxed out versions is now to buy them complete to begin with or comprise.
Since the 2014 and 2015 MBPs are still around, we hopefully have some time to see some better products coming than what they offer now.
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All of the negativity is overblown IMO. Apple is all about profit? Always have been! Greed? Greed = profit... Hardware/software glitches? ALL the computer industries have some now and then on some models, Apple no different. Prices? Apple has ALWAYS been pricier than the rest. By a lot. Always.
But product materials and finish are still second to none. No plastics here. Design? Still the industry leader. Operating system? Are you asking seriously? Decreasing profit this year? Happens to the best industries. Innovation? You can't bring magical and astounding new technology year on year. No one does. Phone obsessed? Yeah that's why they made 90% of the entire world phone industries profits. Can't blame them, that's where the money is. Apple is the Bang&Olofsen of the computer/phone industry, always have been. Don't like it? Go buy a cheap Sanyo "HIFI"... I have an iPad pro 12.9. I'm in awe of it. Splendid design, fast as hell, top alloy construction and the pencil is the best in the industry. Yeah, pricey. So is BMW which, by the way, have had many glitches over the years. But I'm not a Chevy type...
But product materials and finish are still second to none. No plastics here. Design? Still the industry leader. Operating system? Are you asking seriously? Decreasing profit this year? Happens to the best industries. Innovation? You can't bring magical and astounding new technology year on year. No one does. Phone obsessed? Yeah that's why they made 90% of the entire world phone industries profits. Can't blame them, that's where the money is. Apple is the Bang&Olofsen of the computer/phone industry, always have been. Don't like it? Go buy a cheap Sanyo "HIFI"... I have an iPad pro 12.9. I'm in awe of it. Splendid design, fast as hell, top alloy construction and the pencil is the best in the industry. Yeah, pricey. So is BMW which, by the way, have had many glitches over the years. But I'm not a Chevy type...
Ironically, in your defense of the company, you stated the problem that Oppenheimer is warning about. Stock prices staying relatively the same is NOT what I desire as an investor.
Your comments in defense of the company also shows your lack of ability to read simple financial filings. Stating something as fact without any proof does yourself and the larger community a disservice. And I quote, "[A]nd profits continue to flow...". Just what does that mean? You are implying that profits continue to flow in a positive direction. Well, Apple's latest SEC filing (Form 10-K filed on Oct 26, 2016) would state otherwise.
Net sales, otherwise known as gross income or top line revenue was $215.6 billion for fiscal year 2016 (specifically $215,639,000,000) and was $233.7 billion for fiscal year 2015 (specifically $233,715,000,000). Last I checked, that's a loss. A loss of 7.8% over the previous year.
But you did say "profits" so we should check that. Net income, otherwise known as "the bottom line" or profit was $45.6 billion ($45,687,000,000) for fiscal year 2016 as opposed to $53.3 billion ($53,394,000,000) for fiscal year 2015. That, too, is a loss and it is a loss of 14.5%.
Oppenheimer is a financial firm and they, correctly, told the investing public that Apple is no longer making profit year over year. They then stated their opinions as to why they have a negative future outlook for the company. It is your right to disagree with their opinions but please don't go spreading false information about how profits "continue to flow".