Apple's Share of Worldwide Tablet Shipments Falls Below 40% in 1Q 2013

[tongxinshe]

There is a big reason why the Apple of today won't follow in the footsteps of the Apple of the 1990s. Actually, there are 150 billion reasons.

Apple doesn't have to worry about bankruptcy anymore. And with that kind of money they can afford to buy tens of millions of parts at a time. Or build new facilities and data centers. Or buy companies and talent. There's no limit to the amount of freedom that much cash can bring.

There's really no comparison between the Apple of the "bad ol' days" and the Apple of today.

But getting back to market share... why is "Android" having more market share such a threat to Apple?

I put "Android" in quotes because it's not really a singular thing. "Android" is made up of hundreds of phones in all shapes and sizes... and price ranges.

Are we surprised that, in India for instance, that an $80 Android phone is more popular than an iPhone that costs 5 times as much?

Of course every Android phone sold means that one less iPhone is sold. But someone who is buying an $80 smartphone wasn't looking at Apple phones at all.

Still though... Apple sells a ton of phones... and expensive phones at that. They sells phones as fast as they can make them. And Apple has developer support, and accessory support, and customer satisfaction.

So like I said earlier... Android gets the "most market share" headline... but it seems like a hollow victory.

Apple in the 1980's also had tons of money. IBM PCs (and WinTel PCs later) were manufactured by hundreds of different vendors as well, in fact a lot of them were garage assemblers who sell less than a thousand units a year. So what? They combined still pushed Apple to an almost distinction.

If Apple carries the same attitude it had in the 1980's and 1990's, as you've illustrated clearly above, ignores the threats until it becomes financially obvious, fails to respond correctly when the trend just starts to signal and when there are still chances to revert it, the "bad old days" could very possibly repeat itself.

 

[Icaras]

Marketshare IS, however, indicative (most likely) of longevity because of investments in an ecosystem. It plays a role at least.

Marketshare can also have a dramatically diminished impact when there is saturation and smart business management. Take Windows vs OS X for example. By the logic of some posters here, OS X, with its ~10% market share, should have died years ago. But the number of machines running both OSes out in the world is truly vast and look how well Apple is doing with the Mac today.

 

[tongxinshe]

given that both Android and iOS have great marketshare anyway - neither one has to worry. And all of this back and forth about marketshare and profits is (as I have said before) silly. The major players are making money - and unless you're a stockholder in one or the other - these stats are just link baits for forums to have a pissing contest of ridiculousness.

Sure they are both fine for now, but what I was talking about is the future (5+ years later), and the time left to prevent the bad thing (only one dominant platform) from happening. I hope to see a long-time healthy market -- all three (or maybe four) platforms play important roles (20% market share, each, at least, combine tablet and smartphone).

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Marketshare for iOS has been in a free-fall for the last two years. When will developer interest wane?

As I've been saying all the time, when the market share allotment, for tablet and smartphone combined, sort of stabilizes and iOS' share is less than 5%.

To elaborate, when the market share allotment stabilizes, if non-Android platforms (iOS + Windows + BB) don't make 20%+, the free fall will be very quick to less than 5% in total for them all.

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"Windows Dominates the Mac in Market Share"

THAT'S A HEADLINE

Can you still buy a Mac today? After 29 years? Do developers still make Mac software?

If the Mac is still around with single-digit market share... I think the iPhone and iPad can survive with double-digit market share.

Mac would surely be dead for years by now, together with Apple, if not for iPod and iPhone. iPod and iPhone being born in the same company as Mac, is a coincidence. If the same thing ever happens to iPhone+iPad, you don't necessarily get another coincidence.

 

[Michael Scrip]

Apple in the 1980's also had tons of money. IBM PCs (and WinTel PCs later) were manufactured by hundreds of different vendors as well, in fact a lot of them were garage assemblers who sell less than a thousand units a year. So what? They combined still pushed Apple to an almost distinction.

If Apple carries the same attitude it had in the 1980's and 1990's, as you've illustrated clearly above, ignores the threats until it becomes financially obvious, fails to respond correctly when the trend just starts to signal and when there are still chances to revert it, the "bad old days" could very possibly repeat itself.

Apple never had a market share advantage over the IBM PC... ever. The idea that WinTel PCs pushed Apple towards extinction is not entirely true.

Apple's downfall in the 80's and 90's was mostly from mistakes they made themselves.

Bad CEOs... the Mac clones... uninspiring product lines... the list goes on.

Then Steve came back as CEO... killed the clones... and streamlined their product lines. Then they eventually made new products and returned to profitability.

And all that happened regardless of what the WinTel guys were doing.

Here's a breakdown of computer market share over 24 years in history:

Some trend, huh.

How is the Mac still around today? WinTel is clearly "beating" Apple in market share, right?

Answer: Market share is for chumps

Apple instead focused on great products that people enjoy... and they happen to have great margins.

Apple never got involved in the "race to the bottom" like the other PC companies.

You're right... anything is possible. But I'm 99.999% sure Apple will still be around when I'm old and gray

 

[adnbek]

Yep and I wish sites like MR and others would stop giving any air time to research companies that do this.

Shipped means absolutely nothing....absolutely worthless data point.

On top of that, their definition of tablet includes things that can't even do what an iPad can do. A Nook reader or Kindle reader is considered a tablet.

Exactly, but I'm pretty sure we'll see headlines saying "Apple tablet market share plummets. The end of iPad dominance?" soon enough from media outlets lusting for another anti-Apple story.

Never mind if sales will be only a fraction of units shipped as it's always been in the past and that most will only sell when they reach the bargain bin and are not bringing the manufacturer any profit.

 

[dec.]

As market share falls, developer interest will wane. As developer interest wanes, market share will fall.

To paraphrase Bill Clinton's campaign team: it's the ecosystem, stupid.

That's why I said "for now".

To paraphrase our cleaning lady: it's all about details, stupid.

 

[Oletros]

Never mind if sales will be only a fraction of units shipped as it's always been in the past and that most will only sell when they reach the bargain bin and are not bringing the manufacturer any profit.

Any proof or it is only wishful thinking?

 

[Internaut]

That’s what exactly Apple’s Board said back in the 1980’s. Guess what happened? Even with the big technical advance Macintoshes had over IBM PCs, Apple’s market share shrunk to less 2% and consequently almost brought Apple to bankruptcy.

Different age. Different market. Giving away subsidised hardware to free loaders who would never dream of actually spending money on a app, book or tune, would make the kind of market share Apple could do without.

 

[samcraig]

Different age. Different market. Giving away subsidised hardware to free loaders who would never dream of actually spending money on a app, book or tune, would make the kind of market share Apple could do without.

That's a very broad generalization about Android customers, don't you think. A bit of hyperbole perhaps?

 

[Oletros]

Different age. Different market. Giving away subsidised hardware to free loaders who would never dream of actually spending money on a app, book or tune, would make the kind of market share Apple could do without.

iPhone 4S or 5 for free counts as "subsidised hardware to free loaders"?

 

[hexonxonx]

Different age. Different market. Giving away subsidised hardware to free loaders who would never dream of actually spending money on a app, book or tune, would make the kind of market share Apple could do without.

I've purchased apps for my Nexus 7/Nexus 4 that I never bought for my iPhone such as TomTom.

 

[Plutonius]

Because they don't have to. Actually they don't give out any numbers, neither shipped nor sold. The data is based on estimates from IDC.

Apple also doesn't have to either but they do. The question remains. Why doesn't the Android manufacturers indicate the number of units sold ? Apple has a 38% margin on their products but has a much higher profit (especially tablets) then Android. Unless Android is selling at a very large lose, actual Android sales are a lot lower then you think.

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I've purchased apps for my Nexus 7/Nexus 4 that I never bought for my iPhone such as TomTom.

Look at the stats for the two platforms. It's a fact that many more apps are purchased for IOS (and at a higher price) then for Android. You may buy many apps for your Nexus but that doesn't apply to the Android users as a whole.

 

[samcraig]

Look at the stats for the two platforms. It's a fact that many more apps are purchased for IOS (and at a higher price) then for Android. You may buy many apps for your Nexus but that doesn't apply to the Android users as a whole.

Are you aware that (at least for me) a bunch of widely used apps I had to pay for on iOS are free via the Amazon App Store or Android App Store?

Music - Apple has long since had the advantage. Same for Movies/TV. Although Amazon and Google often have better pricing. But you know what "they" say - when you're used to making purchases via one ecosystem - you're more likely to stay.

I don't think Apple's iBookstore is doing that well. Oh it's not doing badly- but it doesn't hold a candle to Amazon and may never. But that's Apple's choosing since their books can ONLY be read in iDevices.

 

[Oletros]

Unless Android is selling at a very large lose, actual Android sales are a lot lower then you think.

Why?

 

[Internaut]

That's a very broad generalization about Android customers, don't you think. A bit of hyperbole perhaps?

Nope. You'd have to read my original response, somewhere back there. I was very clear on on the type of Android customers I was talking about, and which Android customers Apple should be trying to reel in.

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iPhone 4S or 5 for free counts as "subsidised hardware to free loaders"?

There's no such thing as a free iPhone. Do the sums.

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I've purchased apps for my Nexus 7/Nexus 4 that I never bought for my iPhone such as TomTom.

See above.

 

[Oletros]

There's no such thing as a free iPhone. Do the sums

Like there is no such thing as free Android phones. Do the sums

 

[Internaut]

Like there is no such thing as free Android phones. Do the sums

No, but there is such a thing as a dirt cheap Android phone. Consider engaging your mind.

 

[Rogifan]

Where does IDC get their shipped numbers from? Does anyone besides Apple publicly report shipped figures? If not then IDC must be estimating everyone else's figures. Also why does IDC report actual figures from Apple along with estimated figures for other companies? I'd be curious to know if they applied their methodology to Apple would they come up with a figure that is close to what Apple reports?

 

[Oletros]

No, but there is such a thing as a dirt cheap Android phone. Consider engaging your mind.

You have said "giving away subsidised hardware", a free on contract iPhone or Galaxy S4 is "giving away subsidised hardware"

Consider engaging your mind

 

[samcraig]

No, but there is such a thing as a dirt cheap Android phone. Consider engaging your mind.

You just tipped your hand.

You can get both an iPhone and Android phone for free via some carriers.

So there's such a thing as a dirt cheap iPhone when you compare it to dirt cheap Android phones. Although there ARE more free versions of an Android phone.

 

[Internaut]

You just tipped your hand.

You can get both an iPhone and Android phone for free via some carriers.

So there's such a thing as a dirt cheap iPhone when you compare it to dirt cheap Android phones. Although there ARE more free versions of an Android phone.

And the cost of the monthly plan for the dirt cheap Android phone (assuming purchaser of phone and plan isn't a complete idiot)?

 

[samcraig]

And the cost of the monthly plan for the dirt cheap Android phone (assuming purchaser of phone and plan isn't a complete idiot)?

Well here in the states - one and the same. You need a minute plan and data plan. Maybe it's different where you are. But again - I'm not the one making generalizations.

 

[hexonxonx]

You just tipped your hand.

You can get both an iPhone and Android phone for free via some carriers.

So there's such a thing as a dirt cheap iPhone when you compare it to dirt cheap Android phones. Although there ARE more free versions of an Android phone.

Right now, the iPhone 4 is free with two year contract on AT&T, Verizon and Sprint.

 

[Winni]

I've yet to see a Samsung tablet out in the wild, but everywhere I go - I see iPads.

You can come to my office, my colleague has a Samsung Galaxy Tab. But we're not in the United States, which appears to be the hub of the tablet hype. Most people here regard tablets as fancy, but essentially useless toys.

You don't see many people using tablets in Germany, at least not in public or outside their homes. Phablets and smartphones with large screens are an entirely different story - those you can see very often, because they actually serve a purpose while still being true mobile devices that still fit in a pocket.

Everybody who I know who has a tablet only uses it at home on the couch or in bed before they go to sleep. You definitely don't see anybody outside taking pictures with a tablet. For everything that goes beyond simple web surfing (where "simple" means the kind that does not even involve typing a URL) or playing casual games, people still prefer to use a real computer.

Tablets might be a big thing in the US, but it seems that the average European is more resistant to their attraction.

 

[iGrip]

You just said exactly what I was talking about earlier.

"Windows Dominates the Mac in Market Share"

THAT'S A HEADLINE

Can you still buy a Mac today? After 29 years? Do developers still make Mac software?

If the Mac is still around with single-digit market share... I think the iPhone and iPad can survive with double-digit market share.

Yes, the Mac survives as a niche product. And Apple is forced to develop the core software because so few other companies can be bothered to invest substantial sums in order to sell very few copies of Mac titles. If not for Apple spending huge amounts to keep it afloat, and practically giving away Mac software for free, it would have died years ago.

All the cool new software was available only on the PC. We'll start to see that in mobile platforms too, as iOS devices continue to fade in the face of people overwhelmingly choosing Android devices.

Will iOS survive? Yes. Will it be the platform that runs the coolest newest software? Less and less as time goes on.

Its the ecosystem, stupid.

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As for the price, if you compare it directly to the iPad, you're right. I look at it more like an MBA with a higher resolution screen that I can draw on. For that, $999 ain't half bad.

The comparison to the MBA is the appropriate comparison. Windows 8 is a fully fledged computer OS while iOS is a cellphone OS used on big screened cellphones that are missing the phone. the iPad is like an overgrown iPod Touch, while the Win8 tablets are like a desktop computer that can be carried with you.

You really can't compare Windows 8 to iOS any more than you can compare an SUV to a moped.