Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
What happens if customers decide they don't want to spend $1000+ on a new smartphone?

Well they would buy the normal iPhone I imagine. That's what I'm going to do.

The rumored $1000+ iPhone is a new higher tier to capture additional revenue from more upscale customers.

There is also a $10,000 Apple Watch. It doesn't mean that $10,000 is the base price for Apple watches.

This is such a simple concept that I don't understand why so many people are confused about it.
 
Well they would buy the normal iPhone I imagine. That's what I'm going to do.

The rumored $1000+ iPhone is a new higher tier to capture additional revenue from more upscale customers.

There is also a $10,000 Apple Watch. It doesn't mean that $10,000 is the base price for Apple watches.

This is such a simple concept that I don't understand why so many people are confused about it.

I'd like to see the 10th anniversary iPhone 128GB for £699.00 (the price I paid for my, still in use, iPhone 6 128GB in Sept 2014)
However with currency fluctuations and inflation 3 years on...
I realise this ain't going to happen.

I'm now looking at a target price of £799.00 anymore I'll start to be a tad scared off.

I paid £500 for a Psion Series 5 on launch day 1997, still have that somewhere, so I have room to justify the 'crazy cost'...but not too much room to justify!
 
Last edited:
Well they would buy the normal iPhone I imagine. That's what I'm going to do.

The rumored $1000+ iPhone is a new higher tier to capture additional revenue from more upscale customers.

There is also a $10,000 Apple Watch. It doesn't mean that $10,000 is the base price for Apple watches.

This is such a simple concept that I don't understand why so many people are confused about it.

Agreed. The top-of-line products are aspirational. They're intended to be drool-worthy, to get peoples' attention, to help sell them on the manufacturer's brand as a whole. The dream of owning one lures them into the showroom, the realities of paying for it may steer them to an "almost as good" model in the same showroom.
 
I bought AAPL when Gilbert Amelio was still CEO of Apple. :D

(too bad I only bought a small handful)


For those who don't know: Amelio was the Apple CEO that ran Apple during its near-bankruptcy era in the late 90s. But he should be given credit for bringing back Steve Jobs, and Amelio was gracious enough to step down and allow SJ to take full control once more. I also give Amelio credit for eWorld and the Newton.

I bough some Apple shares at that time, too. My first real dabble in the stock market. I bought 10 shares at $12/share. Obviously, I should have bought a ton more, but it was high risk at that time. I bought the stock because I loved Apple products. Have been through numerous splits since and have bought more shares as I could afford to. Best investment I ever did.
 
  • Like
Reactions: deany
Where are the Tim Cook haters now? you've all gone quite, wonder why! the guys switched on, Steve knew.

Not so quick - and I assume you meant quiet - not quite.

Apple's 5 year appreciation is around 15% annual growth - the S&P 500 is at 15% and consumer electronics is at 14%. So the 5 year charts demonstrate that over that period AAPL has not knocked the socks off in performance. They remain undervalued based on trading multiple. What are the chart comparisons for Amazon / Tesla / Alphabet / Facebook?

Insert Chupa Chupa's post #41 comments here - I agree with them.

I agree that Cook is switched on - just on to the wrong things as a CEO. He is the reason that Wall Street has AAPL at comparatively depressed levels. And yes, I do appreciate the recent improvement in share price.
 
Maybe after the iPhone 8 ;)

The rumors beforehand have been negative clickbait mostly beforehand. "They're getting rid of the audio jack! They won't make computers anymore! Samsung/Google/cheap Chinese super phones will crush them!" Coincidentally, this holds down their market price. Then the product is released, sells like hell. Futures that predicated that skim off the cream, wait for the next clickbait decline.
 
Unheard of for a company with nearly a one trillion dollar cap riding primarily on one average off-shore made product that's been rehashed three years straight. Either this is a magical unicorn fairy dust story or a well manipulated stock.
 
I agree that Cook is switched on - just on to the wrong things as a CEO. He is the reason that Wall Street has AAPL at comparatively depressed levels. And yes, I do appreciate the recent improvement in share price.

P/E ratio is a rough guide to investor sentiment about a stock. Apple's traditional P/E of 12 changed barely a blip from Steve Jobs' day to the present.

It's true that in circles like these, there's a fair amount of "Life was rosy in Steve's day" sentiment, but as far as the wider market goes, it's long been cautious about Apple's ability to succeed beyond the present moment.
 
For those who like to track Apple's market cap: We got an updated outstanding share count today. It was 5,165,228,000 as of July 21st. That puts Apple's market cap, based on today's closing price of $157.14, at $811.7 billion.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BuddyTronic
Where are the Tim Cook haters now? you've all gone quiet, wonder why! the guys switched on, Steve knew.

This is what I have always found amusing. The haters normally make such a big show of criticising Apple, yet they are conspicuously quiet during times like this when they are proven dead wrong for the world to see.

If you want credit in that eventuality that your assertions of Apple being doomed is proven right, then at least be ready to soak up the criticism and admit that you have been dead wrong thus far.

Else, even a broken clock is right twice a day.
 
P/E ratio is a rough guide to investor sentiment about a stock. Apple's traditional P/E of 12 changed barely a blip from Steve Jobs' day to the present.

It's true that in circles like these, there's a fair amount of "Life was rosy in Steve's day" sentiment, but as far as the wider market goes, it's long been cautious about Apple's ability to succeed beyond the present moment.

A number of metrics were provided by me - all pointing to a rather average to poor 5 year stock performance. That is on Cook. Less public emphasis spent on politics and conflicted gender rights and more on Apple's pipeline finally performing would, IMO, have yielded a better stock price result.
[doublepost=1501713408][/doublepost]
This is what I have always found amusing. The haters normally make such a big show of criticising Apple, yet they are conspicuously quiet during times like this when they are proven dead wrong for the world to see.

If you want credit in that eventuality that your assertions of Apple being doomed is proven right, then at least be ready to soak up the criticism and admit that you have been dead wrong thus far.

Else, even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Much of the criticism of Cook is still correct - nowhere dead wrong per your post. What is it with this stupid "doomed thing"? That is an absurd overstatement and made mostly as a sarcastic statement or whatever.
 
A number of metrics were provided by me - all pointing to a rather average to poor 5 year stock performance. That is on Cook. Less public emphasis spent on politics and conflicted gender rights and more on Apple's pipeline finally performing would, IMO, have yielded a better stock price result.
[doublepost=1501713408][/doublepost]

Much of the criticism of Cook is still correct - nowhere dead wrong per your post. What is it with this stupid "doomed thing"? That is an absurd overstatement and made mostly as a sarcastic statement or whatever.
db96d5bcecb0fb2a740d7bb6d3f7b087.jpg

AirPods are a success. Apple Watch is slowly but surely taking off. AR is clearly Apple's next huge ecosystem play, made possible by its strong control over hardware and software. Maybe the Mac isn't doing so great, but if it needs to die for the larger scheme of things, then so be it.

Much of Tim's criticism revolves around him not acting like Steve Jobs. I think his track record so far speaks for itself. Tim Cook is no Steve Jobs, and never will be, and that's perfectly all right as he is clearly no less competent a leader and there is no denying that Apple has never been more successful under his leadership.
 
If only I invested in AAPL 10 years ago... or even had money to invest 10 years ago.

Figure out what you can afford to lose - that's the worst case scenario.

then invest.

If I were aggressive (and I am), then I would get set up with a margin account options trading enabled and go buy some AAPL calls with half the money you can afford to lose.

I just did this a couple days ago, so it's not as sweet for you as it was for me, but I bought AAPL January 2018 165 calls for something around $3.80 per contract. They are double nearly today. If I sell today, I would double up on that AAPL call option.

Be prepared to lose, and don't gamble with more than you can lose.

Perhaps you could even think about an exit strategy, just to keep your confidence up. If you lose 35%, then sell and accept the loss and go back to working to get more capital.

If you are an Apple Fan boy, you have valuable information that the tainted world just doesn't see. Realize that most of the world is wrong about many many things, including AAPL stock.
[doublepost=1501738749][/doublepost]
Now is probably the worst time to invest. The biggest gains have been made, and there are always roadbumps ahead. Best time to invest is after a recession. If you bought in 2008 for example, you're golden now.
[doublepost=1501686332][/doublepost]
By 2030 Chinese phones will have made huge gains in the market, I'd guess. Better to buy index funds for long-term growth rather than focusing on specific companies.


I disagree. You could have bought AAPL last year for $100 per share and you would have done extremely well right? My view is that AAPL is still undervalued, albeit not as much when the P/E was like 10 last year! Now PE is probably around 18 or 20 - in line with some other lesser companies, but for other reasons I still feel AAPL is undervalued. Go buy some calls 6 months or a year into the future and you could make a lot of money if AAPL price goes up towards your future predicted price. You could lose it all too, so beware.

What you say about 2030, well, wow - I don't see much of a point made
 
Last edited:
If only I invested in AAPL 10 years ago... or even had money to invest 10 years ago.

About 12-13 years ago, I told my dad to invest in Apple. He wouldn't listen to me and would say "Why would anyone want an iPod? When you are in your car you have the radio and when you are at work you have that or cd's. Why do you need something that helps you listen to music while walking from your car to your office?" It took some convincing but he listened to me when the stock kept going up. He bought in and sold for a 10% gain and never got back in. :( I have got into Apple a few times now that I'm older and probably made about 50%. We would be millionaires if my dad would have left his cash in the stock when I told him to.
 
Where are the Tim Cook haters now? you've all gone quiet, wonder why! the guys switched on, Steve knew.
I am not a hater of Cook (personally, but I find it a rather dull and uninspiring guy) but I really despise the way he transformed Apple in a cashcow/streetfiller/etc. instead of the lean, innovative machine it once was. The way he lamented the computer company showed he is the betrayer of Steve's values.
The introduction of the TouchPad (as a cheap escape from a potential touch/Mac convert that would be a Surface contender) and the regular iPad called iPad (nothing more than a refurb to fill the streets) say enough. What a lame, massive, grey mess it actually has become from a tech perspective with ten thousands of defensive patents not being used. With all the predictable results when you spend truckloads of money to fill the streets of the planet with the same, safe line of products there is very, very little reward for shareholders. If that's what you mean with "the guys switched on" - yes mostly for themselves. With all their PR and empty phrasing it is just insane how little they achieve. Any other company with these insane budgets would bring 7/10 truly new products yearly.
Wauw, Cook is soo excited because he invented... a pair of self-pairing Airpods. A music box in a category defined by Amazon. Because these also-ran guys are loaded, far beyond criticism, have their own tax rules, and rule only by their truckloads of money. Apple, Google, FaceBook, companies once loved but now...arrghhhh
Maybe the wrong message at the wrong time, but you asked where I was.
Well if you'd really care: here.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: I7guy and deany
I am not a hater of Cook (personally, but I find it a rather dull and uninspiring guy) but I really despise the way he transformed Apple in a cashcow/streetfiller/etc. instead of the lean, innovative machine it once was. The way he lamented the computer company showed he is the betrayer of Steve's values.
Has it occured to you that perhaps this is simply the natural order of things?

There's a broader point to be made about the differences between Apple then and now. Whether it should be interpreted as Apple "losing their way" is a matter of perspective.

The simple fact of the matter is that Apple is a fundamentally different company than it used to be. The company can't help it. It's like if you went from paycheck-to-paycheck living, crashing on friend's couches, to a million-dollar a year job. You can claim to be the same person inside, but you're not. When your relationship with your surroundings changes dramatically, that filters down into your core, and it changes you. You can't help it, and you can't control it.

15 years ago, Apple was a company that living on the edge, metaphorically couch surfing. Its existence buoyed by a small population of die-hard fans that looked to it for technology and aesthetic leadership. It had a flock. That was its sustenance. That core group that was willing to follow where it led. Its investor pool was also similar - believers (and a few long-play speculators). You don't hold shares in a company teetering on the edge of non-existence unless you truly believe in it.

When the vast majority of the population that drives your existence are true believers, it gives you flexibility to bring that population with you as you navigate your challenges. If that population is small, then the small revenue limits your options, but their strong loyalty also lets you do things. You can change technology stacks quickly (OS9 => OSX). You can kill off entire classes of partnerships (clones). The population backs you, because they believe. Back in the late 90s, Mac users held a special pride. It took a certain about of personal conviction to stand the tide against "the default". You suffered, and struggled to be a mac user in the face of lack of software choice, and lack of hardware compatibility.. because it was worth it, and you "were a mac user”.

The proportion of Apple's userbase today that are true believers is far smaller. Likewise for their investor base. The current user base and investor loyalty is not based on conviction, or a personal identity-based affiliation

The current user base and investor loyalty is far more grounded in pragmatic self interest. For this user base, it’s a combination of their understanding of Apple products as “good products” and “cool products”, their understanding of the Apple brand as a trustworthy, fashionable, quality, desirable brand. For investors, it’s the typical investor mix - some mix of growth-oriented investment and revenue-oriented (i.e. dividend-oriented) investment.

This is the kind of loyalty most companies have to work with. It’s not as strong as the kind of identity and conviction-based loyalty that sustained the company through it’s dark days.

The problem is that this new, more pragmatically loyal user base and investor base is also what gives Apple its new identity as the most successful company in the world. If Apple’s product quality takes a stumble, some significant chunk of this user base moves on. If Apple’s brand is perceived as less fashionable than it used to be, or less fashionable than it used to be, some significant chunk of that user base moves on.

The user and investor base isn’t a flock anymore. It can’t “be led” like it used to. The company that could forge ahead with drastic decisions, relatively assured that its user base would follow, cannot make that assumption anymore.

Instead of leading a flock, it now has to cater to an audience. This is a drastically different relationship.

Their relationship with shareholders is likewise different. In this very forum, back in the 90s, people used to argue that Apple should just cash in the $4 billion they had in the bank, return it to investors, as that would be a bigger value than forging ahead with their products. Apple’s investors could certainly have forced that outcome, but they didn’t. They hung on, through dwindling marketshare and sales numbers, because they believed in the company.

Are the bulk of shareholders today just as likely to stick with them as those core shareholders from yore? If profits start dropping.. is this new shareholder population as willing to just go along with it? Or are they going to start thirstily eyeing those juicy hundreds of billion dollars sitting in the bank? How much would it take for this new population of shareholders to decide “hey, it was a good ride, let’s force the Apple directors to squeeze some of that juice out for us”?

In this new reality, that original core user and investor base.. those true believers.. they don’t matter anymore. They got to enjoy the ride from the start, but now their secluded island has been inundated by a population of visitors that outnumbers them by a couple of orders of magnitude.

This new population sets the tone for what kind of company Apple will be, because they have the power in this new relationship.

Has Apple “lost its way”? Apple will slowly transition into a much more traditional company (although I would argue that it already has), and its behaviour will start to match those of a traditional company’s behaviour. If you want to consider that as them “losing their way”, then yeah.

I wouldn’t call it “losing their way”, though. Circumstances changed, and the company changed, and that’s just the way she goes.
 
db96d5bcecb0fb2a740d7bb6d3f7b087.jpg

AirPods are a success. Apple Watch is slowly but surely taking off. AR is clearly Apple's next huge ecosystem play, made possible by its strong control over hardware and software. Maybe the Mac isn't doing so great, but if it needs to die for the larger scheme of things, then so be it.

Much of Tim's criticism revolves around him not acting like Steve Jobs. I think his track record so far speaks for itself. Tim Cook is no Steve Jobs, and never will be, and that's perfectly all right as he is clearly no less competent a leader and there is no denying that Apple has never been more successful under his leadership.
[doublepost=1501771157][/doublepost]
db96d5bcecb0fb2a740d7bb6d3f7b087.jpg

AirPods are a success. Apple Watch is slowly but surely taking off. AR is clearly Apple's next huge ecosystem play, made possible by its strong control over hardware and software. Maybe the Mac isn't doing so great, but if it needs to die for the larger scheme of things, then so be it.

Much of Tim's criticism revolves around him not acting like Steve Jobs. I think his track record so far speaks for itself. Tim Cook is no Steve Jobs, and never will be, and that's perfectly all right as he is clearly no less competent a leader and there is no denying that Apple has never been more successful under his leadership.

Air pods success thus far are a rounding error on Apple's lunchroom budget. Apple Watch a bit more significant but still a minor profit generator. Why would Mac have to die for the larger scheme of things??? Apple's cash, net of debt, is $180 billion. AR - remember the buzz was that Apple was going to own the living room for entertainment? Why is it taking Apple so long to do something with the Mac Pro? Where is the 4k Apple TV? What ever happened to the video content? When will that "magical pipeline" finally deposit all the products that Cook has been spouting off about for years?
 
[doublepost=1501771157][/doublepost]

Air pods success thus far are a rounding error on Apple's lunchroom budget. Apple Watch a bit more significant but still a minor profit generator. Why would Mac have to die for the larger scheme of things??? Apple's cash, net of debt, is $180 billion. AR - remember the buzz was that Apple was going to own the living room for entertainment? Why is it taking Apple so long to do something with the Mac Pro? Where is the 4k Apple TV? What ever happened to the video content? When will that "magical pipeline" finally deposit all the products that Cook has been spouting off about for years?
In a nutshell, Apple won mobile, and by extension, this gives them a huge competitive advantage in any market that is linked to the smartphone in any way. I believe their future product roadmap is still going to revolve around the iPhone and (to a lesser extent) the Apple Watch.

The Apple Watch and AirPods integrate more with the iPhone than the Mac. When you think about it, the Apple Watch runs a modified version of iOS, not macOS, and it serves more of an extension to my phone. The iPad runs iOS as well and Apple seems genuine about wanting to push it as a PC alternative for the masses. AR makes more sense on a mobile device like a smartphone than it does on a Mac. If and when Apple releases a pair of AR glasses in the future, it is likely to be linked to your iPhone or Apple Watch, not a Mac. Apple recently purchased a sleep-tracking company, and if they ever decide to release their own line of health-tracking accessories, they are going to integrate with your iOS devices, not your Mac. Even an Apple Car would probably run iOS over macOS.

It's like the Mac is gradually becoming a legacy system. Eventually, I won't be surprised if the Mac exists only to create apps for iOS. When that day comes, Apple may simply release X-code for Windows and drop the Mac altogether. I feel that in the greater scheme of things, the Mac is stealing precious resources and attention from the iOS side of things, with little integration to show for it. And this is something that can't be solved simply by throwing more money at it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Solomani
In a nutshell, Apple won mobile, and by extension, this gives them a huge competitive advantage in any market that is linked to the smartphone in any way. I believe their future product roadmap is still going to revolve around the iPhone and (to a lesser extent) the Apple Watch.
...

...
Quoting you "I feel that in the greater scheme of things, the Mac is stealing precious resources and attention from the iOS side of things, with little integration to show for it. And this is something that can't be solved simply by throwing more money at it."

On that point you must be kidding us - Apple has $180 BILLION $$$ in cash net of debt - it is clear that they are not in any way resource constrained. Under Cook's leadership they are innovation and product development constrained.

Per my earlier post, where is the 4K Apple TV & content & living room dominance? Why can't Siri understand basic English requests? It is as if Cook can't get core NLP up to standard in mid 2017 so he pivots to chatter about AR - always bla bla bla about the magical pipeline and future that never appears to arrive in the Apple Store.

The future path that you articulated so well is a possibility - but it is not the only one, it is not a binary future of one or the other IMO.
 
On that point you must be kidding us - Apple has $180 BILLION $$$ in cash net of debt - it is clear that they are not in any way resource constrained. Under Cook's leadership they are innovation and product development constrained.

Per my earlier post, where is the 4K Apple TV & content & living room dominance? Why can't Siri understand basic English requests? It is as if Cook can't get core NLP up to standard in mid 2017 so he pivots to chatter about AR - always bla bla bla about the magical pipeline and future that never appears to arrive in the Apple Store.

The future path that you articulated so well is a possibility - but it is not the only one, it is not a binary future of one or the other IMO.

It's more like $154 billion in cash net of debt, as of the end of this last quarter. That's obviously still a huge cash pile. But Apple's cash net of debt hasn't been growing all that fast in recent years. It's only $4 billion more than it was 9 quarters ago.
 
On that point you must be kidding us - Apple has $180 BILLION $$$ in cash net of debt - it is clear that they are not in any way resource constrained. Under Cook's leadership they are innovation and product development constrained.
There are other ways to be constrained, such as the number of qualified personnel you can hire. This, I believe, is their bottleneck, not money or any other factor. That at any one time, they have only so many people they can deploy to work on only so many products at any one time.

Per my earlier post, where is the 4K Apple TV & content & living room dominance? Why can't Siri understand basic English requests? It is as if Cook can't get core NLP up to standard in mid 2017 so he pivots to chatter about AR - always bla bla bla about the magical pipeline and future that never appears to arrive in the Apple Store.
They are not mutually exclusive.

The 4K Apple TV is likely waiting for a suitable skinny cable bundle to complement it, and Apple probably still can't get the right deal it wants from the cable companies, so they would rather not release it rather than release it without the accompanying bundles.

Services has always been Apple's weak spot. Just the consequence of their business model.

The future path that you articulated so well is a possibility - but it is not the only one, it is not a binary future of one or the other IMO.
It may well be the one that Apple has decided to embark on.
 
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.