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What goes up must come down.

I really want to sell and lock in what I've gotten on this, but I've only held it since August, so taxes will be about double on it what they'll be if I hold it another 5 months... the question I keep wondering is, will it manage to remain this high (or higher) for another 5 months? Or will it drop by enough that I should just swallow the taxes now?

I'm really overthinking it, given AAPL is only 3% of my portfolio, and I only have a single share of it. It's only the second share I ever bought, and will mark the first share I ever sold.

Not to be rude, but yeah, you're really overthinking it.

Hold that single share, indefinitely. Apple will become much bigger than today.
 
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Granted I am bias as hold AAPL and general bullish on it but I think that market has not fully digest the fact that they are going to spend prob $100b or more buying back the stock. Think about this...if they do do this sharebuyback it is roughly 12% of the market cap will disappear via share outstanding and being retired. You are going to have the mother of all short squeze on the stock. I could see $220 PPS...

Btw we may see a annual dividened but not going to be a one time dividend as Tim doesn't like it and also he mention they want to do something that rewards long time holder of the stock. One time dividends penalize long time holder as they would be getting double tax on the amount and it is tax based on income rate.
They might even do a tender offer with the $160B net cash and announce an additional massive buyback program that spans 3-5 years, using annual cash flow. The last one was a $300B capital return program (including dividends). With access to overseas cash, this could be even more.
 
What goes up must come down.

I really want to sell and lock in what I've gotten on this, but I've only held it since August, so taxes will be about double on it what they'll be if I hold it another 5 months... the question I keep wondering is, will it manage to remain this high (or higher) for another 5 months? Or will it drop by enough that I should just swallow the taxes now?

I'm really overthinking it, given AAPL is only 3% of my portfolio, and I only have a single share of it. It's only the second share I ever bought, and will mark the first share I ever sold.


HODL!

Do not sell! You would certainly regret it if you sell. Hold for longer!

If you desperately need to raise cash, you can even consider taking out a margin loan against your shares. But selling right now would cause you to miss out on a 40% speculative gain on the AAPL share price. Tighten your belt! What do you need that money for? Change your thinking towards building your portfolio up. This stock is undervalued. AAPL stock outperforms what most people can do in the real world with a real business actually! Think about that. Instead of running a small business, you'd be better off liquidating your entire business and buying AAPL shares and simply sit at home and do some gardening and watch your stock.

Sell off the rest of your portfolio and increase AAPL to 100% of your portfolio would be my advice.

I hope the rest of your portfolio has done really well and all that, but AAPL is still an incredible value.

AAPL stock will be greater than $200 per share in the next year. The interesting question for me will be "how much higher than $200 will AAPL stock go in the next year". It deserves to be at a PE of 25 let's say, so if we do the math on that, it probably means AAPL stock should be something like $240 - $260 and then that would make some sense of the rest of the entire stock market. Until then, I think it is the most incredible buying opportunity, very low risk and a decent dividend and a nice outlook for increased share price. A conservative investment that packs some heavyweight numbers.


EDIT - Whoops - I see you only have one share! haha - well good for you. Just think about it this way - you are fortunate, you picked the best stock when you bought AAPL. It is very safe. There are other stocks that could go up more perhaps, but overall, AAPL is the solid and safe pick. Take all your other stocks and maybe take some profit on those, and put that money ASAP into more AAPL stock. If you have one share - capital gains tax is a NOTHING issue for you. Your transaction fee of (guessing) $10.00 will be a bigger deal for your one share. Save your money and build up. Any time you think you need to spend money on something, don't. Just suck it up and know that you are the guy who is going to double his portfolio in the next 5 years.

Furthermore - when some of your jealous friends start asking/telling you that you need an "exit strategy" to sell your AAPL shares, ask them how their own portfolio has performed. Are they driving a Lambo? If not - don't listen to them. The worst thing you can do is get advice from other people probably. Figure it out for yourself and do what you believe in. If you are wrong about something, find out why you are wrong, what did you do wrong? what did you think wrong? Find that out. You are your own best advisor. People picking the highs and lows of something can be considered to be noise most of the time - consider the source of the opinion. No Lambo means they probably don't know enough to advise you.
 
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I’m just pleased you guys used the old Apple logo in the graphic accompanying the article. :)
 
Let me give you the same advice Buffett did when asked about dividends. Just sell a small piece of your AAPL holdings every year and take a long term capital gain (lower tax rate, still get some cash every year). The beauty of using the money for buybacks is you can decide to pay your capital gains tax if you want a little extra cash and you're not forced into being taxed on a dividend.

The buyback also reduces share count, increases EPS, and ultimately makes your shares more valuable, assuming the stock is undervalued (which Apple and I believe is the case). Apple's buyback has been very successful. Their average price is something insane like $120/share.

This is more or less what I was going to say.

Generally speaking... If a shareholder would prefer more dividends to more buybacks, they can (assuming the buybacks have the intended effect) sell the equivalent amount of shares such that they have the same amount in cash and still own as much of the company (as a portion) as they would have had more dividends been paid and less buybacks done.

If you own 100 shares and 10% of outstanding shares are bought back, you own about 11% more of the company. If you sell 10 shares, you're back to owning the same amount of the company as you would have without the buybacks. With buybacks, you get to decide whether or not to incur tax liability now.

That said, the average price that Apple had paid over the last 5 or so years to buy back shares was still, as of the end of last quarter, under $102.
 
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It needs to be explained as there are plenty of people who don't understand stocks that come here.

Statements of that kind don't promote understanding, they promote further confusion. My point being, AAPL has never traded higher, not "technically," not nohow. To say it another way turns a simple issue into a convoluted one.
 
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I just looked and AAPL is at $178. Stock market overall is down today.
 
Isn’t it wild that the value of Apple has swung by $100 billion within a month?

The whole market has though -- not isolated to Apple in any way. The DOW was 26,186 on Feb 1 and sank to 23860 on Feb 8 then bounced back to where we now are at 25660ish today. Now THAT is wild. Wish I had had the guts to double down but I'm not complaining just the same. I lost my shirt on Lucent and Cisco back in the day so once burned twice shy -- though I did buy Cisco back during the '08 crash. Not the best return so far but not terrible. Better than sitting in the bank for sure.
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Isn't it nice how people can manipulate the price of a stock using only words.

I think "manipulate" is a bit strong. Manipulate implies shenanigans. Buffet speaking his mind is not a criminal activity. Yes, Buffet is a well valued investment option on Wall Street and Main Street because he earned it. People can take it or leave it.
 
The greatest investor of all time now holds almost 166M shares ($28B at current value) of the best company in the world. This is Berkshire's LARGEST marketable securities holding. Gives you a sense how much Buffett likes the business and Tim Cook (besides him saying it all the time).

By the way, this is old information as we knew Buffett added over 30M shares when the 13F was released almost 2 weeks ago. He owned over 130M shares for the last year.

A very good chance, every individual investing in any IRA type account owns Apple Stock.
 
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Isn’t it wild that the value of Apple has swung by $100 billion within a month?
Every year like clockwork in December or January some negative Asian supply chain rumor on the iPhone comes out and Wall Street becomes a bunch of nervous nellies and dumps the stock. And then a month or two later get back into it. I don’t know of another company that has so much constant concern around it. The coverage on Apple is it’s always one bad quarter away from doom. I swear there’s nothing Apple could do that would make Wall Street not worried. If they had a blow out quarter in terms of iPhone sales then Wall Street would be fretting about it being a tough comp or that they’ll never be able to have another super cycle again. The stock is up now but as we get closer to the next earnings release I’m sure there will be more unsourced rumors about weak iPhone sales and it will get dumped again.
 
Hard to get too excited about a self serving comment from Warren Buffet AFTER he already purchased a large chunk of Apple. :rolleyes:

The market is for insiders, always has been and always will be that way. By the time the "news" gets to regular folks, it's too late.
 
Hard to get too excited about a self serving comment from Warren Buffet AFTER he already purchased a large chunk of Apple. :rolleyes:

The market is for insiders, always has been and always will be that way. By the time the "news" gets to regular folks, it's too late.

I disagree with you.

Do you somehow think that "news" about AAPL stock has not been given to you? Have you been on MacRumours for the last several years? Do you ever listen to Tim Cook? You SHOULD! He has been telling you 4 times a year in quarterly financial reports and conference calls and in writing nearly EXACTLY what Apple company has been doing. Tim Cook is the news! He has never been wrong and he has never lied! So I don't think you have a point, what you say is nonsense.

Maybe you won't listen to any "news" unless it comes from Warren Buffet? I don't get it.

What should I think when you say what you are saying.

Do you suppose Warren Buffet should be telling the world what stock he is going to buy tomorrow? Please realize that he always tells you about his recent past stock activity.

Maybe if Warren Buffet wanted to be "self serving" - he would keep his activities completely secret as possible. I mean, if the market jumps up because he says he bought AAPL, maybe he should just buy more AAPL and try to avoid telling us what he is doing. Hey, if he wanted to be "self serving" he could say a lot of things - but that probably would be illegal to make self serving statements.

If you could not manage to out guess Warren Buffet on AAPL stock, well then, consider yourself just a hair less of a savvy investor than him. He is no genius. He is 10+ years LATE to the AAPL party actually!

I like Warren Buffet - he has common sense! That's all. But he is an old man who knows more about "Campbells Soup" - I mean who even eats that tepid, salty broth these days? Senior Citizens maybe? Warren Buffet knows his Campbells Soup because he is 80+ years old! Campbells Soup is going to diversify into "snacks" - that's the big news that excites Warren Buffet about Campbells Soup!

If it takes a guy who does not own a smartphone at all to beat you to AAPL, well, I just laugh at you - seriously. Such a lame attitude you display with that lament! Go get a stock account with cheap trading fees and start gambling! It's fun!

Warren Buffet makes money in a way that sounds boring. It's called Time Travel. You too can be rich like Warren Buffet. Buy AAPL and wait and watch as you have a lifetime of portfolio doubling events. He is no shark! He didn't beat you to anything you couldn't have deduced with even a marginal amount of business savvy. Consider that and I hope it helps you.
 
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Yeah! because Apple is doomed right?

Guess not, go away!

No junior. Because iPhone sales will be down in Q2 from lack of demand, and Q3 from waiting for the new iPhone. Don't base your outlook on Q1 or Mr. Buffet. Don't forget his has a 30% stake in AAPL. Say some positive things boost the stock. Self serving. May pay off in the short term very well for him.

p.s Try to was up on the childish responses. It's unproductive. ;)
 
As other investors have said, I hope they continue heavily on buyback....but...I'd really like a slight bump in dividends this year. They've been pretty consistent with a ~10% bump every year, which makes me happy, but cranking it up 15-20% this year would feel good (at least to my wallet). Getting the dividend closer to 2% in the next 3-4 years would be nice.

My DRIP (Dividend Re-Investment Program, for those that don't know) rolls along. Keeping fingers crossed for early retirement. :)
 
The greatest investor of all time now holds almost 166M shares ($28B at current value) of the best company in the world. This is Berkshire's LARGEST marketable securities holding. Gives you a sense how much Buffett likes the business and Tim Cook (besides him saying it all the time).

By the way, this is old information as we knew Buffett added over 30M shares when the 13F was released almost 2 weeks ago. He owned over 130M shares for the last year.

We see how well Buffet's last "big" tech investment went. He was pretty hoodwinked by a CEO, and rode them down. So, I wouldn't put much importance in his buying Apple big. He's been proven at being not very smart in tech.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/nov/14/warren-buffett-buys-ibm-stake
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...berkshire-cuts-almost-its-entire-stake-in-ibm
 
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