Apple's Stock Price Reaches All-Time High Above $180 After Warren Buffett Praises iPhone Maker

[noupf]

Don’t tell me you are using Nikkei as a source. Please. They have been consistently wrong, including the fake news they reported on iPhone 7 and iPhone X prior to the Q1 report. ASP debunked that story completely.

Attempts to try to understand Apple’s supply chain are almost always wrong. If you follow the stock, you know this.

For Q2, they guided for $62B, which they probably will beat. $65B is again, analyst nonsense. $62B would represent a 17% increase y/y and they’ll probably beat it by some margin, making it more like 20%. Do you know how insane 20% growth is for a company of Apple’s size on a revenue base of over $50B? We are talking about INCREASING sales by almost $10B in 90 days. $10B is only $2B less than DISNEY’s total revenue in Q417. Disney! It’s almost as much revenue as Netflix made in all of 2017.

Do you know how insane that is? This company is absolutely treated unfairly with unrealistic expectations. Meanwhile, Netflix trades at 200 times earnings and Tesla is constantly given a pass for losing more and more money. Value takes time to play out.

the problem is, apple is seen as a one trick pony on wallstreet. The iphone makes up like 60% of their sales. If something were to happen and the iphone were seen as no longer a consumer favorite, the stock would plunge. The fact that apple is growing its services / subscription busniness, watches, wearables, homepod and whatever else is in their future product pipeline.....and if these other parts of apples business continue to blossom and grow, than apple will be less dependant on the iphone as its core product and at that point, wallstree will notice how well rounded the company has become and apple will get a higher PE ratio. I suspect that if apple can grow the smaller parts of the business over the next couple years at a good clip, it will begin to see a PE ration in the mid 20's in stead of the mid to high teens.

theres a reason why microsoft has a PE near 29 and apple is at like 18. Microsoft has constant revenue through services and subscription for its portfolio of products. As apple grows its services and subscription business, wallstreet will slowly grant them a higher PE. If apple could have a PE of 25 today, it would be a $242 a share.
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AMZN is a great company, but I think the current valuation is approaching or already a bubble. I couldn’t sleep if I owned enough to matter to me.

ever single time i wanted to buy amazon over the last couple years, i kept telling myself that there is no way it can go much higher.

I would have more than double my money if I had just bought in a year and a half ago.....

 

[chas_m]

I can only speak for myself, but I'd prefer it if MR would refrain from publishing stories about intraday activity, since none of that counts (and the story was wrong before you'd finished writing it). What matters is when AAPL hits a record high at the closing bell. It was, IMO, a waste of your time and resources to write this piece, since in fact the stock lost ground by the end of the day. There's plenty more meaningful stuff to cover.

 

[IJ Reilly]

Depends. Either 15% or 20% depending on your tax bracket to long term gains. Short term gains are treated as ordinary income and subject to your (likely) higher personal rate up to 39.6%.

I’d answered this question already. Long term is 10%. The rate increases to 15% above $400k. It can also be zero at low incomes.

 

[bushman4]

2018 iPhone holds the key to the stock price. All the other products( that we know of) coming out certainly arent barn burners. If the 2018 iPhones are more of what the people want and it creates a super cycle then we're in

 

[Carnegie]

I’d answered this question already. Long term is 10%. The rate increases to 15% above $400k. It can also be zero at low incomes.

Long-term capital gains are taxed at 0 or 15 or 20%. There's also the net investment income tax of 3.8% that kicks in at $125,000 (in MAGI) for individuals and $250,000 for married couples. Then, depending on the state, there may be state taxes.

 

[triton100]

Depends. Either 15% or 20% depending on your tax bracket to long term gains. Short term gains are treated as ordinary income and subject to your (likely) higher personal rate up to 39.6%.

Hmm so fairly equal(ish) to uk taxation. Though that 5 % difference can add up over large amounts of capital gains increase.

 

[Chupa Chupa]

Actually last quarter was stellar IMHO.

OK. In your opinion. Our opinions don't really count for much though. Reality is what matters here and AAPL did take a days long punching after its conference call. Earnings represented by fewer sales than desired but still manages to beat revenue is not stellar. It's like winning a playoff berth on a technicality. Stellar is when a company executes perfectly. That doesn't describe last quarter based on actual data, not emotion. It was B+, and Apple has adjustments to make with the way the X or iPhone is marketed. Hey, they can't all be A, and really the X was kind of a blind product for everyone because it was a total re-think of the iPhone. Now Apple has data and can make corrections for this year's models. For now Buffet really put the wind back in AAPL's sails, not a terrible thing to have.

 

[ChrisCW11]

Why do people praise Apple for having one of the worst years for product quality? Getting a new shiny thing in a box into customer hands is not, and should not, be the end game for Apple; the quality of product and service and respect for their customers has GREATLY diminished in the past year, so that deserves praise?

Warren Buffett pretty much just made himself billions by opening his mouth to praise a company, and it leads to significant questions about the ethical practices of billionaires.

For instance Buffett and Bezos cause the market to tank simply mentioning they might get into a health service company, now Buffett opens his mouth and artificially spikes a stock? In the meantime these guys, or their massive team of high priced financial managers, are buying and selling share pre and post announcement to increase their personal and company wealth. And if you think these guys are not shorting or grabbing up stock before they open their mouths you are just naive.

There should be legal and ethical investigation every time one of these billionaire makes any kind of public announcement that impacts the stock markets like they do.

In the meantime Apple is scaling back iPhone X due to less then anticipated demand, but Buffett is ensuring the stock doesn't reflect Apple's true performance.

 

[BuddyTronic]

OK. In your opinion. Our opinions don't really count for much though. Reality is what matters here and AAPL did take a days long punching after its conference call. Earnings represented by fewer sales than desired but still manages to beat revenue is not stellar. It's like winning a playoff berth on a technicality. Stellar is when a company executes perfectly. That doesn't describe last quarter based on actual data, not emotion. It was B+, and Apple has adjustments to make with the way the X or iPhone is marketed. Hey, they can't all be A, and really the X was kind of a blind product for everyone because it was a total re-think of the iPhone. Now Apple has data and can make corrections for this year's models. For now Buffet really put the wind back in AAPL's sails, not a terrible thing to have.

Did you miss the bit about one less week in this years Q1? Calc by week = stellar.


Don’t forget, it’s a billion dollar day x7. (or is it? I think it is something like $1B per day!).

 

[Baymowe335]

the problem is, apple is seen as a one trick pony on wallstreet. The iphone makes up like 60% of their sales. If something were to happen and the iphone were seen as no longer a consumer favorite, the stock would plunge. The fact that apple is growing its services / subscription busniness, watches, wearables, homepod and whatever else is in their future product pipeline.....and if these other parts of apples business continue to blossom and grow, than apple will be less dependant on the iphone as its core product and at that point, wallstree will notice how well rounded the company has become and apple will get a higher PE ratio. I suspect that if apple can grow the smaller parts of the business over the next couple years at a good clip, it will begin to see a PE ration in the mid 20's in stead of the mid to high teens.

theres a reason why microsoft has a PE near 29 and apple is at like 18. Microsoft has constant revenue through services and subscription for its portfolio of products. As apple grows its services and subscription business, wallstreet will slowly grant them a higher PE. If apple could have a PE of 25 today, it would be a $242 a share.
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ever single time i wanted to buy amazon over the last couple years, i kept telling myself that there is no way it can go much higher.

I would have more than double my money if I had just bought in a year and a half ago.....

That's where the value has to play out. The "one trick pony" narrative is a false narrative, particularly with services growing at 20%. This company is going to expand more and more into a services company with the hardware just being the gateway. It's already happening. 1.3B devices buying stuff and using Apple services.

Apple trading at a lower multiple than Clorox? LOL

 

[BuddyTronic]

Why do people praise Apple for having one of the worst years for product quality? Getting a new shiny thing in a box into customer hands is not, and should not, be the end game for Apple; the quality of product and service and respect for their customers has GREATLY diminished in the past year, so that deserves praise?

Warren Buffett pretty much just made himself billions by opening his mouth to praise a company, and it leads to significant questions about the ethical practices of billionaires.

For instance Buffett and Bezos cause the market to tank simply mentioning they might get into a health service company, now Buffett opens his mouth and artificially spikes a stock? In the meantime these guys, or their massive team of high priced financial managers, are buying and selling share pre and post announcement to increase their personal and company wealth. And if you think these guys are not shorting or grabbing up stock before they open their mouths you are just naive.

There should be legal and ethical investigation every time one of these billionaire makes any kind of public announcement that impacts the stock markets like they do.

In the meantime Apple is scaling back iPhone X due to less then anticipated demand, but Buffett is ensuring the stock doesn't reflect Apple's true performance.

reduced product "quality"?

I didn't see much news about that. I mean, I don't love my newish MacBook Pro, but it was some design issues I think. Where are the "quality" issues?

And The Buffet Ethical issues - I think you just do not understand the legal obligations that Buffet has - he is obviously clean as Boy Scout Whistle as far as ethics are concerned. I think you are missing some knowledge.

Also - you say some bulldada about iPhone X demand? It's wrong. You got that wrong. Go find out for yourself. Best selling Apple phone every week since introduction is what Tim Cook said. Numbers do not lie, but you can lie with statistics. There was an extra week in the previous year Q1, and it translated to 1 week less on this years latest Q1 report. It is only a matter of "conveniently" ignoring such information that fuels the propaganda that must have been giving you that "idea" or "knowledge" - I think it's sad that we have to point out to each other whatever lies there are that must be navigated in order to see someone else's point - but that's where we are at. You say black I say white on iPhone X demand. Who is right? Me actually. Go look for yourself and really find out if you care and if you have an open mind.

 

[Baymowe335]

OK. In your opinion. Our opinions don't really count for much though. Reality is what matters here and AAPL did take a days long punching after its conference call. Earnings represented by fewer sales than desired but still manages to beat revenue is not stellar. It's like winning a playoff berth on a technicality. Stellar is when a company executes perfectly. That doesn't describe last quarter based on actual data, not emotion. It was B+, and Apple has adjustments to make with the way the X or iPhone is marketed. Hey, they can't all be A, and really the X was kind of a blind product for everyone because it was a total re-think of the iPhone. Now Apple has data and can make corrections for this year's models. For now Buffet really put the wind back in AAPL's sails, not a terrible thing to have.

The whole market was down as it hit all time highs yesterday. Be careful judging quarters on immediate market reaction. It's computerized/automated trading. Again, the quarter was unbelievable if you zoom out a little and stop focusing on a 90 day stopwatch for unit sales, which by the way, were excellent anyway given the reality of iPhone X launch date.
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Did you miss the bit about one less week in this years Q1? Calc by week = stellar.


Don’t forget, it’s a billion dollar day x7

Don't let facts get in the way of a good story.

 

[Chupa Chupa]

Did you miss the bit about one less week in this years Q1? Calc by week = stellar.


Don’t forget, it’s a billion dollar day x7. (or is it? I think it is something like $1B per day!)

Did you miss the bit that if I had one more second I'd wouldn't have missed the train? Problem is I'm not on the train so doesn't matter. I have to deal with reality, not recast history as something it wasn't. You give nice spin, but the reality is the X was touted as a super cycle that turned out to be much less than that. And one more week wouldn't have changed that either.

For an AAPL investor like me -- heck like Buffet -- that didn't bother me at all because, heck, I've been holding my AAPL for 17 years. Safe to say I'm a long termer. Apple is a cash cow. But that doesn't mean I'm not going to honestly assess it's business because my money is on the line and I need to be honest, not sentimental, so I can accept fundamental changes when they occur. I think the X sales were just teething pains. Apple will work it out. But it's folly and untruthful to suggest they were monumental last quarter. They'd be great for a lesser company, but we are talking about Apple.
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The whole market was down at it hit all time highs yesterday. Be careful judging quarters on immediate market reaction. It's computerized/automated trading. Again, the quarter was unbelievable if you zoom out a little and stop focusing on a 90 day stop watch for unit sales, which by the way, were excellent anyway given the reality of iPhone X launch

Right, like I said -- and the subject of this "article" is: Warren Buffet put the sails back into AAPL of late. Frankly I'm not one to watch stocks on a daily basis because I'm long term. And a company like Apple 90 days, even 365 days, doesn't really give an investor -- as opposed to a trader -- a complete picture.

I merely pointed out to another poster than sales and revenue is not always linked. A company can have lower sales and still have higher revenue, which IS what happened with Apple last quarter. People can say "but it was a week shorter," but that's how it was planned. It's not like Apple got shortchanged. Every new product has a learning curve for companies. The X is not exempt. There is no shame in that and it will get worked out. Not sure why some get all up in arms over the idea the X wasn't a blockbuster. It's really pointless. Longterm it will be a sales killer for Apple. That is what matters unless you only hold AAPL for days at a time.

 

[Matz]

Bought some shares on the last dip, will buy a few more on the next dip.

 

[Squeak825]

I’d answered this question already. Long term is 10%. The rate increases to 15% above $400k. It can also be zero at low incomes.

But you answered it wrong -- here are the real rates:

 

[IJ Reilly]

Long-term capital gains are taxed at 0 or 15 or 20%. There's also the net investment income tax of 3.8% that kicks in at $125,000 (in MAGI) for individuals and $250,000 for married couples. Then, depending on the state, there may be state taxes.

Yeah sorry don't know where I got those other rates. Might have been thinking of California's separate capital gains tax. To my knowledge I've never be subjected to any excise tax/AMT, and I've certainly had gains of over $125k.
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But you answered it wrong -- here are the real rates:

Again sorry. My mistake. Posting late at night...

 

[BuddyTronic]

Did you miss the bit that if I had one more second I'd wouldn't have missed the train? Problem is I'm not on the train so doesn't matter. I have to deal with reality, not recast history as something it wasn't. You give nice spin, but the reality is the X was touted as a super cycle that turned out to be much less than that. And one more week wouldn't have changed that either.

For an AAPL investor like me -- heck like Buffet -- that didn't bother me at all because, heck, I've been holding my AAPL for 17 years. Safe to say I'm a long termer. Apple is a cash cow. But that doesn't mean I'm not going to honestly assess it's business because my money is on the line and I need to be honest, not sentimental, so I can accept fundamental changes when they occur. I think the X sales were just teething pains. Apple will work it out. But it's folly and untruthful to suggest they were monumental last quarter. They'd be great for a lesser company, but we are talking about Apple.
[doublepost=1519832713][/doublepost]

Right, like I said -- and the subject of this "article" is: Warren Buffet put the sails back into AAPL of late. Frankly I'm not one to watch stocks on a daily basis because I'm long term. And a company like Apple 90 days, even 365 days, doesn't really give an investor -- as opposed to a trader -- a complete picture.

I merely pointed out to another poster than sales and revenue is not always linked. A company can have lower sales and still have higher revenue, which IS what happened with Apple last quarter. People can say "but it was a week shorter," but that's how it was planned. It's not like Apple got shortchanged. Every new product has a learning curve for companies. The X is not exempt. There is no shame in that and it will get worked out. Not sure why some get all up in arms over the idea the X wasn't a blockbuster. It's really pointless. Longterm it will be a sales killer for Apple. That is what matters unless you only hold AAPL for days at a time.

Chuppa if you are holding for 17 years, you are like me somewhat. I have held for much longer than that, and acquired more along the way continuously whenever I could. The only sales I made were because of a divorce settlement!

I try NOT to be sentimental. But I do see a lot of people reading things wrong based on propaganda, all the time!

"Super Cycle" - go check what Tim. Cook said about "Super Cycle" - he said there is no such thing. I don't know if I think he is right or wrong, but he said it, and it carries weight for me. Maybe what he says does not matter to you? Why Not? It should! If Tim Cook statements do not carry weight for you do you feel you are possibly making some misjudgements? Objectively check Tim Cook's words out for the last many years. Find me something he said that was garbage please - you can't find it! Not the same for what YOU say though. That's why I comment about it to you.

I mean if you are into "Super Cycle" are you also into "Technical Analysis" or "Go Away in May" or "Dark October". If that stuff dominates the gestalt of your thinking, then I hope you recognize that. I get spooked any time some guy tells me "Go Away in May and come back another day". Then I realized my net worth is probably 20X - 100X what this old man is telling me. Humans are good at seeing faces in clouds. Enough of them believe the nonsense that it can be a self-fulfilling prophesy.

Just listen to Tim Cook - the dude is a philanthropist practically. They have so much money I don't think they even care if they are "spinning" the facts - they just tell it like it is.


Riddle me this:

What was AAPL's biggest Revenue Quarter?
What was AAPL's biggest Profit Quarter?
What was the most iPhone's sold in a single Quarter?

There was a graph showing the breakout of average sales price, and yeah it jumped, and yes you are right, you don't need the biggest number of units to get the biggest profit. But combine the numbers and do what Tim Cook told you to do with the weekly instead of quarterly numbers and wow, you'll see my point. What data should a person use when assessing things? Use the weekly! Of Course!
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But you answered it wrong -- here are the real rates:

View attachment 752720

wow - someone should show a chart of Canadian Capital Gains Tax. It would make you sick.

 

[Chupa Chupa]

"Super Cycle" - go check what Tim. Cook said about "Super Cycle" - he said there is no such thing. I don't know if I think he is right or wrong, but he said it, and it carries weight for me. Maybe what he says does not matter to you? Why Not? It should! If Tim Cook statements do not carry weight for you do you feel you are possibly making some misjudgements? Objectively check Tim Cook's words out for the last many years. Find me something he said that was garbage please - you can't find it! Not the same for what YOU say though. That's why I comment about it to you.

Go ask anyone, any company who came up short and what to they do... spin it in the most positive outlook. Whether it's the coach of a pro team, a corp exec., a kid bringing home a report card riddled with B-es. They always have their answer. But that doesn't mean we should swallow them whole hog and then parrot them back as truth. Our Creator gave us cognitive reasoning skills. We are obligated to use them.

I personally don't rely solely on Tim Cook's statements to determine if I should hold or sell AAPL -- or any other CEO regarding their company's stock. I use the company's historical data, my understanding of it's product line and consumer reception -- perhaps reliance -- on it., competition, societal trends, a whole host of data points. What CEOs or other company execs say is really akin to the foam on a latte. It's not that what TC or other CEO's say is garbage -- it's that it's not enough to solve a puzzle. It's just a piece.

But yeah, TC has spouted BS before. How many times has he touted an exciting product line-up in the coming year and by Dec it's nothing but speed bumps. Seems that was the case in 2015, 2016. Last year was the first year of really exciting new stuff.

 

[BuddyTronic]

Go ask anyone, any company who came up short and what to they do... spin it in the most positive outlook. Whether it's the coach of a pro team, a corp exec., a kid bringing home a report card riddled with B-es. They always have their answer. But that doesn't mean we should swallow them whole hog and then parrot them back as truth. Our Creator gave us cognitive reasoning skills. We are obligated to use them.

I personally don't rely solely on Tim Cook's statements to determine if I should hold or sell AAPL -- or any other CEO regarding their company's stock. I use the company's historical data, my understanding of it's product line and consumer reception -- perhaps reliance -- on it., competition, societal trends, a whole host of data points. What CEOs or other company execs say is really akin to the foam on a latte. It's not that what TC or other CEO's say is garbage -- it's that it's not enough to solve a puzzle. It's just a piece.

But yeah, TC has spouted BS before. How many times has he touted an exciting product line-up in the coming year and by Dec it's nothing but speed bumps. Seems that was the case in 2015, 2016. Last year was the first year of really exciting new stuff.

Actually, you have some good points there - a different point of view on Tim Cook, and I like that.

He does not lie, but yeah, I did think it was a bit of a cheat when he said "look at the weekly data". I mean he is "right", but most people look at "quarterly reports - without massaging and without adjusting for weird calendar issues". Tim Cook does do the same spin - you are absolutely right about that. And yes I do agree about the speed bumps on exciting products stuff too. Keep in mind that I DO listen to every word Tim Cook says - I listen to every quarter phone conference, and every TV interview. There are valuable nuggets in there. Remember - these big guys are regulated as to what they can say publicly, so if you watch them, you can often get some of the best information. Particularly when the markets seemed to have "China iPhone Numbers" in their crosshairs. Tim Cook had to tiptoe through those interviews about China. If you listened, you could have made money.

But - looking at it weekly DOES give you much different numbers, so if you really want to know how things are doing, it does help to make the right bet, and I think that is what any investor really wants. It's not a secret, but you do have to look a bit deeper here to realize that Q1 is actually "better" than what the average analyst is going to say about it. When you look at the whole picture, I think the AAPL price is still lagging way way behind the value there. What an opportunity. It makes the January 2017 price of $107 look like - wow - even more so of a value

I am way past respecting almost ANY analyst opinion about AAPL. Not until they do start paying attention to ALL the things I watch for will I bother to pay attention to any of them. No analyst has taught me anything new about AAPL. I agree or disagree somewhat, but I really do not take what they say with any weight on my decision process. Carl Icahn was a different story - I DID like what Carl Icahn was saying, and he was right. But even he dropped out of AAPL - he started sandbagging his portfolio in other ways I guess? Not sure why he got out of AAPL. I'm still curious about that whole Carl Icahn thing with AAPL. I mean, he knows the value - shouldn't Carl Icahn be back into AAPL stock by now? If not, then I wonder why? Stuff like that is more interesting to me than whether you are able to ascertain that AAPL stock when viewed by weekly data is better than quarterly - what everyone else wants to focus on and beat down until Q1 seems to be a crappy quarter. That's just false, and silly stuff and it's money we are talking about here! You want the good info right? You want to avoid the lies and propaganda and slanted viewpoints right?

 

[BuddyTronic]

Woah, woah, woah. Let me stop you there. You're using the wrong brokerage. Robinhood. Zero fees. Use this link and both of us get a free random share when you sign up:
http://share.robinhood.com/taylorm149

Other than that, you've convinced me to hold.

Most of my stock trading life I paid $500 and higher, for a stock trade to my brother-in-law stock broker. Horrible!

He retired several years ago and I finally got myself a self-managed online trading account with $10.00 fees. I basically had to do that when I realized that the guy who replaced him did not even have certification to trade options! What a joke! My online account is dirt cheap in comparison to the ripoff I had endured for a few decades! It was stupid. I never took my stock brokers advice - I avoided diversification and had to argue too many times just to keep holding my AAPL shares. I probably taught the whole firm something. While they were pushing garbage mining stocks and other lame Canadian equities to all their high value clients I did my own thing with AAPL. In fact, I missed great IPO's like GOOG because of my stock broker! Horrible. All water under the bridge. The only good thing was that I did get some phone calls with market information and suggestions, but wow - a lot of years doing that dumb way of buying stocks. $10.00 per trade is basically free for me and actually I pay more because mostly all I do now is options on AAPL, but it's still just a few hundred dollars and I consider it to be basically free.

 

[TallManNY]

We've probably had this conversation in the past but I am totally with you on those hopes and fears. The question is far more urgent now than it's been in the past.

Actually, we've had this conversation for years now at this point. It would not be an Apple financial thread if IJ Reilly didn't chime in at some point.

 

[Allyance]

I have 205 shares and Warren Buffet has 134 million, I think he knows more than I do, I'll just sit tight and not worry about the daily ups and down (even thought I have the current quote on my Modular Watch Face!) . It has gone up 258% since initially bought it.

 

[Baymowe335]

I have 205 shares and Warren Buffet has 134 million, I think he knows more than I do, I'll just sit tight and not worry about the daily ups and down (even thought I have the current quote on my Modular Watch Face!) . It has gone up 258% since initially bought it.

Buffett has 165.3M shares, more specifically, Berkshire has the shares.

 

[IJ Reilly]

Actually, we've had this conversation for years now at this point. It would not be an Apple financial thread if IJ Reilly didn't chime in at some point.

Oh where did I get these magical super powers?

 

[s15119]

What goes up must come down.\.

Actually stocks have historically always gone up for long term investors.