Pacific1972
macrumors regular
Everyone that says this cannot show clear evidence of a qualitative change in LLMs. All they show is quantitative improvements, per se. It is just refinement. My biggest fear isn't even the impact of AI, it's the powers-that-be thinking it can have more of an impact than it possibly can. In other words, it's the difference between laying off 25% of your developers and having the rest use AI for certain things, while being careful not to add vibe coding debt, etc., and laying off 100% of your developers and saying the subject matter analysts can do it all with vibe coding because they know everything about how our processes work anyway.
Then when tokens start going up 11x overnight (already happened) and keep on increasing, suddenly they need those people back.
Look at it this way. No company has ever made money selling their LLMs. Not Google, not Microsoft, not Apple, not OpenAI (definitely not them. They are buy out candidate within 6 months), not Meta, not xAI, and not Anthropic.
After some major f-ups, everyone is going to realize that AI can't be held responsible for anything like a human worker, and that, combined with ever present drop in quality, will make everyone realize what a study in radiology showed years ago.
AI combined with a radiologist (with the radiologist in charge of the AI) found more instances of cancer than either could alone.
The other problem here is that the difference between models isn't stark enough to ever charge enough per token to justify the cost of AI (and that's without getting into power or water costs). In other words, say Anthropic 10x (again) their token costs. Everyone just switches to OpenAI. Then OpenAI switches, and people start figuring out how to run Deepseek on their local computers.
Eventually these costs will rise to where profits need to be made and everyone will realize they can only afford to use AI for actual important things--such as figuring out what compounds could make new antibiotics, etc.,
And as far as entertainment, everyone wants uniqueness and care. They do. not. want. AI slop. It will eventually be used in small ways to speed up digital work, but that's it. We want connections in our art, and AI has none.
Edited to add: So it appears I was incorrect about that oft cited radiology study. Here is an interesting follow up:
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Why Radiology AI Didn’t Work and What Comes Next | Out-Of-Pocket
FDA Approvals, PACS Pain, Selling Point Solutions, and Why Radiology AI Needed a Rethinkwww.outofpocket.health
I have a BROTHER-IN-LAW who works for a Chinese B2B company in Germany.
He is highly skilled (in his field) and, after 15 years, he is considering leaving the company and
his “secure” job because his Chinese B2B company doesn’t offer any guarantees or warranties
in Europe for AI graphics cards that cost business customers tens of thousands of dollars - and
he lost arguments for B2B sale (items perhaps also overpriced) - AliExpress Mindset !
But when he says, “I'm good in my job and could even sell Donald Trump an AI graphics card
with 24GB or more because I'm no longer afraid (of high-rise-persons) to take risks !” 🤪
I can only say that he's an 😉 IDIOT (multiple) 'cause he understands nothing about life !!!
I look at what he’s achieved in life — divorce, debt, and child support payments to the children
he fathered. His only lifeline at 50 is the prospect of retiring in another 15 years to what will
hopefully be a government-guaranteed pension 🙄😬🤮 !
Anyone who can't take care of themselves and doesn't make things a little easier for their own
children has already lost the race against AI, because the level of education for the most at 50
(+ muddy mindset) isn't the same as it was at 25 - Game Over !
"I know that I don't know !"
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