I watched this live. I was genuinely surprised by how nonpartisan it was, and how everyone except for 1-2 congresspeople supported Apple's position.
The only two who I felt went way beyond acting in an impartial and ethical manner where Gowdy and Sensenbrenner. Unrealistic "what if... " scenarios, questions framed around examples that had no relevance, to outright threatening that Apple "won't like what we come up with... ". Aside from that, it was a great watch.
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China could require Apple to unlock an iPhone right now, whether the U.S. does or not. It could ban the sale of Apple products in China and confiscate and destroy all Apple property in China. A U.S. law requiring the hack may make it more palatable, but no provision of international law requires China to follow U.S. municipal law. Of course there are diplomatic consequences to consider, but it's China's decision.
China could however the impact to the way China is viewed, especially the Government would preclude that from happening unless the Chinese could couch this under the guise of "well they do it... ". With the current world economy and China's emerging position in it, they do not want to step back. Things are going too well for this type of behavior to become a public world wide spectacle.
Just my opinion...
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The thing is Apple WILL Lose.
Why?
Because they are "Setting Themselves Up For A Fail" with this PR move.
Why do I say that?
Look at is this way...............
Say we have 100,000 bad people around the world planning acts of terror on western countries, abducting children and women from poor countries as prostitutes, members of governments around the world (USA of course)
All the devious, evil, bad people you can think of.
Apple/Tim during all of this are basically putting up a GIANT NEON Flashing sign that says, "Use out products and you will be save from the authorities, we will, with our last dying breath not let anyone find out the bad things you are doing"
This stance, WILL... By it's very nature, attract the 100's of thousands to use iPhones etc for their bad/evil/illegal deeds.
So the snowball will start growing and growing so to speak, the momentum will be such that there will be more and more iPhones/Apple products that hold more and more data needed to catch/convict all these people.
Eventually, it will break, and even the normal people (here now) will have to give in and say, we need to access these people's data for the protection of normal people.
I cannot see any other long term scenario happening other than this.
You miss the point it appears.
There is nothing that says the NSA / China / others have not already broken iPhone access.
Aside from that. Let's say the FBI wins and now Apple has to give them access.
- We know the DOJ has another 12 in queue.
- We know NYC has 175+ in queue.
- We know LAPD/LA Sheriff's Department has 400+ in queue.
- There are likely thousands more beyond that.
- We now have a new Apple department and our personal privacy is shot.
- Next law enforcement asks the same of Android. The same of Windows. The same of....
- Then this is expanded to all similar devices; tablets, notebooks, home systems, cars, etc...
- However we aren't done yet!
- Now the FBI wants a "small" expansion to allow remote install.
- Then the FBI wants remote stealth install.
- Now we add in all the international nation states. And their law enforcement.
- By now the criminals have it.
- Terrorists have long ago moved on to any of the 400 or so international (read - not American) encryption offers.
However let's get back to your concern. Apple now has a backlog of 6 months plus due to the number of requests.
We now live in a police state as our every thought, post, call, message, surf, search is available for review or monitoring...
Where does it end.
Your "snowball" is a maybe at best. The scenario I laid above is a given if the FBI get's their way.
We need a different solution. This FBI "request" isn't it.
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To be honest, it concerned me quite greatly how clearly none of the old men in suits at congress had a clue about the technology they were talking about. They just don't seem qualified to discuss these issues.
Go back and rewatch the hearing. There were a few that were willing to learn and a couple of others that understood.
It is always a challenge when we are governed predominately by "generalists" who make decisions based on summaries or titles. Some by headline.
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I am watching this very closely as this very closely as I am sure Google, Microsoft are as well and I would not be surprised if there are already discussions going on in the 'dark web' about how to obtain such a tool if/when it ever exists.
To me it looks like here in the UK and the USA they are slowly turning into a police state.
Why would Google or MS be wanting this tool? They would be next in the request list from the FBI and other law enforcement agencies to provide exactly the same thing.