This guy is lying. Don't trust him. He is just trying to stir something up. So many people here bought the 3G last July so most of them are one month away from the eligible July date for upgrading. If what this guy has said is true, why all the complaints and flaming. If what this guy said is true, why doesn't AT&T just approve everyone for the upgrade. Damn lying lunatic.
FWIW, AT&T will upgrade you early under certain circumstances. In fact, I've been with AT&T (under a family plan and then on my own) for ~10 years, and I don't recall waiting more than 13 months for a new phone at any point...a big part of that is because I have the 450 minutes/unlim data/unlim text plan, so my bill hits ~90/month, so for various reasons I tend to be randomly granted early upgrades. (Seriously-I've had times when I logged into my account and I'm 4+ months from a subsidized upgrade...and then logged in a week later and suddenly I'm set up for an upgrade.)
My theory has always been that it's a combo of how much you pay each month, your likelihood of upgrading when one is available, and how badly they want to recycle their existing smartphone stock. It seems like they roll out "upgrades" when they're a month to a month and a half away from a major lineup overhaul.