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BMW CFO on Apple Car: 'Competition is a Wonderful Thing'
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By the time Apple makes a car Elon Musk will be in a mental ward after laughing about how many millionaires he killed on his Space Titanic.
Then Tesla will be finished and all these car companies BMW, Jaguar, Ford etc will own the EV market because they own the auto market anyway.
Then Tesla will be finished and all these car companies BMW, Jaguar, Ford etc will own the EV market because they own the auto market anyway.
He sleeps peacefully? REally? How can anyone sleep peacefully, when THIS
is in their company product pipeline?
Apple car already looks much better than this, and it doesnt even exist!
is in their company product pipeline?
Apple car already looks much better than this, and it doesnt even exist!
It is still the case in the UK, just depends on the model of Tesla you want. If I go to their website and want a Model S it says: Est. Delivery: 2022. That's almost a year away.
I know they've gotten much faster at delivery in the USA (est 10-11 weeks for that same Model S there) but their rivals are delivering new models below that time range worldwide. The manufacturing infrastructure Tesla has is very restricted compared to any of their traditional rivals (Mercedes, Nissan, Toyota, BWM, Citreon etc).
But to be clear I'm not knocking the company, I think their cars are nice. I'm just saying their problem isn't people don't want their vehicles it's often other issues. They have a very desirable product.
They have no BEVs worth buying right now and AFAIK none are coming out in 2021.
PIHV-sales are bridging them over, for now.
But god knows what they do with all these plugin-leases coming back in 2023 and ongoing.
You can talk all day about VW making a loss with every BEV they sell. They are making the loss now, while there's still profit in ICE. At least, they don't have to take back ICE-leases in 2023 when ICE doesn't even make a profit anymore...
PIHV-sales are bridging them over, for now.
But god knows what they do with all these plugin-leases coming back in 2023 and ongoing.
You can talk all day about VW making a loss with every BEV they sell. They are making the loss now, while there's still profit in ICE. At least, they don't have to take back ICE-leases in 2023 when ICE doesn't even make a profit anymore...
But within 12 months (i.e. long before Foxconn starts making EVs or the legacy car companies catch up to Tesla in EVs and batteries) Tesla will have Giga Berlin and Giga Texas fully operational, Giga Shanghai will have much larger manufacturing capacity than it has now, etc. Customers in the UK or any EU country won't be depending on a single Tesla factory in Fremont, California.
I am not promising that Tesla will be completely capable of meeting demand a year from now, but at that point it will be in the "good problem to have" category -- the same one Apple has when they release a new especially desirable device like AirPods or a specific iPhone. It's not like the competitors are capable of taking advantage of it and steal Apple's market share by manufacturing their version of the AirPods faster. Customers patiently wait for the real deal.
The 8 series doesn't seem to get the love I think it deserves. The e24 is one of the best designs BMW ever made, and a great followup to the e9, but I am biased as I have an 85. The 80's saw some of their best design work, even with the mandatory diving board bumpers. The e30 has classic lines and is a worthy successor to the 02.
The new Z4 is, IMHO, the best of BMW's recent design, and the Z8 is stunning.
It will be interesting to see wha Apple does on the design side. Cars are an emotional purchase, all the tech in the world won't sell a car that doesn't stir someone emotionally. Buyers also have some brand loyalty, especially in the enthusiast market. If Apple comes in at the high end, they'll have some stiff competition for customers.
Sure, there will be buyers who buy one simply because it is from Apple or want to be see with the new hot thing. The question is "is that a sustainable market?", especially since cars don't churn every 2 years unless you lease them; but then you have to sell used ones.
The rumor that Apple is going into the transportation business makes more sense, because design is less of an issue and ideally you are selling fleets which don't require lots of showrooms and things like TCO and operational costs are more of an issue. That's why I think Tesla's semi truck is a good idea. A tractor that doesn't require a CDL and has lower operational costs and TCO than an ICE tractor, and operates over known routes so charging isn't an issue, should be a hit with fleets. Maybe Apple will come out with the Apple Car Pro model that is a semi truck tractor; the trailer would require a proprietary coupling and cost 200,000 dollars...
Gotta tell ya....If Im a shareholder I don’t want my CEO or CFO or COO and all the Chiefs to sleep peacefully. He or she gets paid the big bucks to NOT sleep peacefully. He or she gets paid to always be on the alert of competition(especially for the love of God a company like Apple in the rear view mirror no pun) Sorry but you can sleep peacefully when you retire Sir
Blackberry's problem was they saw the iPhone as a consumer device, and their main market was to businesses that wanted enterprise features. Once the iPhone could fit into the enterprise, BB was doomed because so many of their customers already had one as a personal device and liked it; even if they liked their Crackberry. Given the ease of switching a phone vs a car I think Apple will face a bigger challenge if they want to be a mainstream car company.
That certainly will help meet current demand. Tesla will still have to figure out how to actually make a profit as a car company to stay viable.
Car buying habits are a bit different. People may be willing to wait for a hot product, like the C8 Corvette or the new eMustang, but in general they want or need it now. The question is how inelastic is Tesla's demand? You can order one with no obligation to buy, so if you lose interest you are out $100. At one point 25% of the orders for the 3 were canceled, not sure what it is now. As more EVs come out Tesla will face a lot more competition all across the price spectrum; and the major car companies have a lot more showrooms and buyer relationships to bring in customers.
Tesla right now has smooth sailing with what, 50% of the worldwide market, but there are storm clouds in their future. Other manufacturers are bring out EVs, increasing competition for customers as well as key components such as batteries.
China right now is the largest market for EVs and Tesla only has 20% of that market. The question is will they be able to keep that market share as the market grows?
I think Tesla makes a good product and can survive, but I doubt they will see the kind of growth they've enjoyed as the market matures.
I’m going to feel bad for other car companies when Apple Car is released. Some of them may not sell enough and some may possibly go out of business.
Sheesh, don't bite my head off! I should have read the article before commenting, I must concur.
Model S *now* is more of a preorder since the new refresh + giga berlin. If you checked the archive, placing a Model S order back in November resulted in a March delivery date. https://web.archive.org/web/2020111...a.com/en_GB/models/design?redirect=no#battery
What metrics are you looking at? I was looking at number of vehicles sold worldwide.
For 2020, the numbers were:
1 - 6.5M Toyota
2 - 6.0M VW
3 - 4.1M Hyundai
4 - 3.9M Ford
5 - 3.7M Honda
6 - 3.2M Nissan
7 - 3.0M GM
8 - 2.5M Kia
9 - 2.4M Mercedes
X - 2.0M BMW (Looks like the pandemic helped them in 2020 - normally they're closer to #12 on the global rankings.)
I only said that VW spends a lot of time not in first place. I didn't say they've never been there. I was looking at a much longer period of time - GM has spent a lot of time as the #1 auto company, even if it's been a few years since they last were up there... GM was the top auto company from 2000-2005 and also in 2011. Toyota was the top auto company from 2006-2017 excluding 2011, and also in 2020.
I was looking at revenue not volume as it feels like a more appropriate comparison. Although I may have been looking at older data.
I don't see how this refutes anything I said? in USA that same Tesla is estimated 11 weeks. In UK it is almost a year. As I said in my comment: The manufacturing infrastructure Tesla has is very restricted compared to any of their traditional rivals (Mercedes, Nissan, Toyota, BWM, Citreon etc).
Their Rivals all have that global manufacturing. That's the problem Tesla has to solve and Apple won't have to solve because they will partner with a Tesla rival who already has the manufacturing ready to go from day one.
Apple just needs to make a car that is desirable and manufacturable by their chosen partners. Tesla has to actually build the factories which is where they're lagging behind. Which is easier to accomplish? - time will tell.
You said "order a car now, receive it in a year". You're cherry picking the data and generalizing that to everything that Tesla does. That mischaracterizes Tesla's most popular products which applies to most people. You can order a Model 3/Y and receive it far less than a year.
You said about Tesla: "Maybe 3 years if you want an unreleased model.". Well, Ford took preorders back in 2019 for their Mach-E GT and initial deliveries won't happen until late 2021 in the UK. That's two years. Does that mean Ford's biggest problem is "Always manufacturing"? Nope.
Delivery dates for high margin, low volume products as well as upcoming products hardly justifies calling Tesla's main problem being a manufacturing problem.
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Cherry picking? You can get it in 6-11 weeks in USA. 1 year in UK. It's the same model of car, same updated new model. The discrepancy shows the manufacturing bottleneck outside of the US that their competitors don't have.
Also in the UK the Model X is also "estimated: 2022". That's 2 out of 3 models they sell.
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Choosing Model S and X that was recently refreshed is cherry picking, yes. Tesla doesn't consider Model S or X to be important at all. Even Elon literally said "Without them, we couldn't spell ‘sexy,’".
Now if you're talking about the Model Y, then refer back to my comment about Ford's Mach-E rollout.
Again, so you can understand my position. These models are available in the USA right now with a 6-11 week lead time. The brand new models.
In the UK it is 1 Year+ for 66% of all the car models they sell. Are you seeing the time discrepancy? This is a sign of their lack of worldwide manufacturing that the new models are available in North America so immediately and the rest of the world has to wait a whole year.
Something that does not happen with other car brands. We're looking to buy a brand new Nissan which is coming out in the summer, we asked the dealer about availability and he said and I quote it will be available worldwide at the same time you'll have it a month or two after the worldwide release date. Same level of release schedule worldwide.
Why? because Nissan has a plant in the UK that pumps these cars out. Just as they do in France, America, Japan etc - Something Tesla does not have.
Sure if you want the old Model 3 you can get it in 3 months in the UK, I'd not call that fast but it's reasonable. But it's not the car we want, we were looking at the Model X which is comparable to the Nissan Qashqai we're also looking at purchasing (the model I spoke about being refreshed above which isn't just a new paint job its the new Generation 3 with an entirely new Chassis, drive train, engine etc).
Also I don't care what Musk or Tesla thinks is important. It's crazy to me that you could announce a new refresh of your vehicles and not have them available for over a year. No one wants to buy the old models once the new models are out, that's the Osbourne effect. I would rather wait 2 months to buy the latest iPhone upon release than walk into a shop and buy last years model. Tesla's issue has always been manufacturing.
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You're completely ignoring what I'm saying. Again, you don't have to wait for a Model 3. There's no production "problem". Your idea that waiting "maybe 3 years" is so misleading. All car companies announce a new car years ahead of the first deliveries. So how is that a sign of a "problem" with production?
People in UK are waiting for the Model Y as much as people are still waiting for the Mach-E GT from Ford. Why are you suggesting that Tesla has a production "problem" but still say production problems "[do] not happen with other car brands" like Ford? Cherry picking.
Apple staggered their iPhone release in previous years to different countries. Was that a sign of "production problems"? I wouldn't think so. An iPhone being sold out for months isn't a sign of production "problems" either.
I really don't have time to repeat myself, so I'm going to end it here. Have a good one.
uhuh right.. (Feb 2021):
I'm talking about the Model S and X which have been refreshed and won't be available in the UK for a years time. I don't care about the mythical Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster etc.
When it comes to Ford and the Mach-E GT, many of these companies don't want to transition to electric vehicles before they're pushed to do so as they're heavily invested in ICE vehicle production. Selling literally millions of vehicles a year compared to Tesla's hundreds of thousands. You pick one car from one car manufacturer where as I'm talking about 66% of the cars Tesla makes right now not even being available in Europe for a year when they're available in America from 6 weeks.
Also Apple did do what you said with early iPhones. Did you also forget Tesla has been selling cars for 10 years already? And I never said production problem, you're just changing things because you know you're wrong. I said manufacturing scale, I said compared to the other car makers ability to produce in large volume etc
Tesla's problem has always been the limits of their limited manufacturing capability compared to other car makers. If Apple was able to make enough iPhones for everyone to have they would have done so instead of the staggered launches at the start of the iPhones.
I'm glad you've decided to bow out of the discussion. Anyway some facts about the situation. When was the last time you ever saw their established competitors talking about the need to ramp up production and how difficult it will be, doesn't happen because they already did it and have factories all over the world pumping out cars. Tesla is on that path but it's not here today just accept that fact and move on.
Tesla warns on challenges of scaling up production (Sep 2020)
Tesla warns on challenges of scaling up production
Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk warned on Tuesday about the difficulties of speeding up production as an expert cautioned the carmaker's increased reliance on large-scale aluminium parts could bring new manufacturing challenges.
Elon Musk blames production ramp-up for Tesla quality issues (Feb 2021)
Elon Musk blames production ramp-up for Tesla quality issues | Autocar
Tesla CEO outlines steps taken to tackle well-documented variations in EV manufacturer's build quality
All Elon ever talks about is the factories and how they need more factories, smarter factories, more capacity. How he slept in the conference room at Tesla's Freemont factory during Model 3 ramp-up. How they made a separate manufacturing line outside using temporary buildings to increase production to meet demand.
But sure, farewelwilliams says there's no production problem, give me a break dude. I point out one little issue that Tesla is working to overcome by their own admittance hundreds of times and you come out of the woodwork guns blazing. This company is not your friend and defending them is pointless.
As far as we all know Tesla isn’t going to produce the S or X anywhere but in CA. So building more factories isn‘t really meant for those two vehicles. Generally speaking Tesla refreshes have always taken longer to get to EU/UK than other places because there is more paperwork involved. It is like how you guys have nerfed NoA Highway, or probably wont ever see NoA City Streets.uhuh right.. (Feb 2021):
I'm talking about the Model S and X which have been refreshed and won't be available in the UK for a years time. I don't care about the mythical Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster etc.
When it comes to Ford and the Mach-E GT, many of these companies don't want to transition to electric vehicles before they're pushed to do so as they're heavily invested in ICE vehicle production. Selling literally millions of vehicles a year compared to Tesla's hundreds of thousands. You pick one car from one car manufacturer where as I'm talking about 66% of the cars Tesla makes right now not even being available in Europe for a year when they're available in America from 6 weeks.
Also Apple did do what you said with early iPhones. Did you also forget Tesla has been selling cars for 10 years already? And I never said production problem, you're just changing things because you know you're wrong. I said manufacturing scale, I said compared to the other car makers ability to produce in large volume etc
Tesla's problem has always been the limits of their limited manufacturing capability compared to other car makers. If Apple was able to make enough iPhones for everyone to have they would have done so instead of the staggered launches at the start of the iPhones.
I'm glad you've decided to bow out of the discussion. Anyway some facts about the situation. When was the last time you ever saw their established competitors talking about the need to ramp up production and how difficult it will be, doesn't happen because they already did it and have factories all over the world pumping out cars. Tesla is on that path but it's not here today just accept that fact and move on.
Tesla warns on challenges of scaling up production (Sep 2020)
Tesla warns on challenges of scaling up production
Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk warned on Tuesday about the difficulties of speeding up production as an expert cautioned the carmaker's increased reliance on large-scale aluminium parts could bring new manufacturing challenges.www.reuters.com
Elon Musk blames production ramp-up for Tesla quality issues (Feb 2021)
Elon Musk blames production ramp-up for Tesla quality issues | Autocar
Tesla CEO outlines steps taken to tackle well-documented variations in EV manufacturer's build qualitywww.autocar.co.uk
All Elon ever talks about is the factories and how they need more factories, smarter factories, more capacity. How he slept in the conference room at Tesla's Freemont factory during Model 3 ramp-up. How they made a separate manufacturing line outside using temporary buildings to increase production to meet demand.
But sure, farewelwilliams says there's no production problem, give me a break dude. I point out one little issue that Tesla is working to overcome by their own admittance hundreds of times and you come out of the woodwork guns blazing. This company is not your friend and defending them is pointless.
Monday is VW’s version of Battery Day, so we will get to see how they plan on securing enough supply to produce 500,000 EV’s a year. So far they are the only other maker talking in that kind of scale. Realistically no one other than Tesla has produced that many EVs a year, so I am not sure if Apple will go for low volume high priced cars (think S-Class) or if they are going to try for high volume low price (think Camry).