Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
Monday is VW’s version of Battery Day, so we will get to see how they plan on securing enough supply to produce 500,000 EV’s a year. So far they are the only other maker talking in that kind of scale. Realistically no one other than Tesla has produced that many EVs a year, so I am not sure if Apple will go for low volume high priced cars (think S-Class) or if they are going to try for high volume low price (think Camry).
I actually think (and this is just my opinion of course) that Apple doesn't intend to sell cars to consumers at all.

I think their plan is to have a subscription service where you hail a car on your iPhone and using self-driving it takes you to your destination and you don't physically drive it at all. I also think it will launch in the US only city-by-city and only expand to other cities outside of the USA over a long time period.

Apple Car now available in London that sort of thing. I just can't envision them selling to consumers directly but that's just my opinion. Maybe they really do just want to sell cars to people.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SuperCachetes
I actually think (and this is just my opinion of course) that Apple doesn't intend to sell cars to consumers at all.

I think their plan is to have a subscription service where you hail a car on your iPhone and using self-driving it takes you to your destination and you don't physically drive it at all. I also think it will launch in the US only city-by-city and only expand to other cities outside of the USA over a long time period.

Apple Car now available in London that sort of thing. I just can't envision them selling to consumers directly but that's just my opinion. Maybe they really do just want to sell cars to people.
Which would be the Waymo approach. In that case it is surpising, for as advanced as every seems to think Apple self driving tech is, they are not going what Waymo is doing now (driverless ride sharing in select cities).
 
I don't see how this refutes anything I said? in USA that same Tesla is estimated 11 weeks. In UK it is almost a year. As I said in my comment: The manufacturing infrastructure Tesla has is very restricted compared to any of their traditional rivals (Mercedes, Nissan, Toyota, BWM, Citreon etc).

Their Rivals all have that global manufacturing. That's the problem Tesla has to solve and Apple won't have to solve because they will partner with a Tesla rival who already has the manufacturing ready to go from day one.

Apple just needs to make a car that is desirable and manufacturable by their chosen partners. Tesla has to actually build the factories which is where they're lagging behind. Which is easier to accomplish? - time will tell.

Actually, Tesla is the one with the headstart in manufacturing. They're already using 40 GWh of batteries per year. Nobody is close to Tesla in terms of GWh of batteries. Volkswagen appears to be closest - they used around 13 GWh of batteries last year.

That Tesla has such a long queue of people waiting for vehicles while other manufacturers don't doesn't indicate that Tesla has less manufacturing capabilities - it just means that Tesla has more demand than supply right now and nobody else does. Porsche can't manufacture anywhere near as many vehicles as Tesla but they don't have a long queue the way Tesla does.
 
Actually, Tesla is the one with the headstart in manufacturing. They're already using 40 GWh of batteries per year. Nobody is close to Tesla in terms of GWh of batteries. Volkswagen appears to be closest - they used around 13 GWh of batteries last year.

That Tesla has such a long queue of people waiting for vehicles while other manufacturers don't doesn't indicate that Tesla has less manufacturing capabilities - it just means that Tesla has more demand than supply right now and nobody else does. Porsche can't manufacture anywhere near as many vehicles as Tesla but they don't have a long queue the way Tesla does.
Are you sure about the Porsche statement; I had read somewhere that there was more than 40 deposits taken per 2020 Taycan production capacity of 20K vehicle, which at the time [before pandemic] was being doubled to 40K in 2021.

If the Tesla queue is so long, and they cannot meet demand, why are they always doing huge promotions to get volume out at the end of the quarter?

To the thrust of your post, there is no doubt no one is near [yet] to having the Tesla's capacity
 
Actually, Tesla is the one with the headstart in manufacturing. They're already using 40 GWh of batteries per year. Nobody is close to Tesla in terms of GWh of batteries. Volkswagen appears to be closest - they used around 13 GWh of batteries last year.

While I agree TEsla certainly currently has teh most expereince with EVs; I don't think taht necessarliy translate to a lead in manufacturing. Auto maskers have vasts amounts of experience designing and cghanging over production lines that tehy can draw on as EV production ramps up.

That Tesla has such a long queue of people waiting for vehicles while other manufacturers don't doesn't indicate that Tesla has less manufacturing capabilities - it just means that Tesla has more demand than supply right now and nobody else does. Porsche can't manufacture anywhere near as many vehicles as Tesla but they don't have a long queue the way Tesla does.

Very different sales models. Tesla lets you get into the que for $100, Porsche requires a substantial commitment before they let you into the que with a delivery date. Much of Tesla's demand is soft and as more EVs become available I doubt they'll continue to see the demand.

Are you sure about the Porsche statement; I had read somewhere that there was more than 40 deposits taken per 2020 Taycan production capacity of 20K vehicle, which at the time [before pandemic] was being doubled to 40K in 2021.

If the Tesla queue is so long, and they cannot meet demand, why are they always doing huge promotions to get volume out at the end of the quarter?

Gives them a boost in the numbers to show they are still growing and keep up the stock price? Nah, no company would do that to make numbers look good.

To the thrust of your post, there is no doubt no one is near [yet] to having the Tesla's capacity

Very true.
 
Actually, Tesla is the one with the headstart in manufacturing. They're already using 40 GWh of batteries per year. Nobody is close to Tesla in terms of GWh of batteries. Volkswagen appears to be closest - they used around 13 GWh of batteries last year.

That Tesla has such a long queue of people waiting for vehicles while other manufacturers don't doesn't indicate that Tesla has less manufacturing capabilities - it just means that Tesla has more demand than supply right now and nobody else does. Porsche can't manufacture anywhere near as many vehicles as Tesla but they don't have a long queue the way Tesla does.
I don't disagree with you that they have a headstart when it comes to manufacturing batteries.

But they are behind when it comes to manufacturing actual cars when you include internal combustion engine vehicles. At the moment the car manufacturers that aren't Tesla are still able to sell millions of non-EV's and so they continue to do so.

We've seen them all dabble a bit with a single or a handful of electric options but no one has gone all in because they don't need to. Tesla will never launch an ICE car so they have to put everything into their electric ambitions and it shows with the gigafactory and their battery partnerships with Panasonic on that battery factory.

But when Apple enters the fray and they partner with a car manufacturer to build their vehicles that part should solved. Where will they get batteries? who knows. Maybe they'll build battery factories in China. Maybe leverage their Foxconn million man army to produce batteries. Maybe they'll go the Tesla way and make their own gigafactories next to their partners assembly plants.

Personally I think they'll go the flat pack battery way as opposed to cylindrical cells to ease manufacturing output and then lean on traditional battery manufacturers with large contracts worth billions of dollars. Think Sony, Sanyo, Panasonic, Mitsubishi etc anyone who can make batteries they'll throw money at just like they do with screen manufacturers for the iPhone.

But again just my thinking and again I agree that Tesla is ahead on battery manufacturing and output capacity this is an undeniable fact. It's just their overall ability to push cars out compared to other automakers (who predominantly still make ICE cars) that limits them currently.
 
If the Tesla queue is so long, and they cannot meet demand, why are they always doing huge promotions to get volume out at the end of the quarter?
Huge promotions? They throw in 1000 miles of free charging, worth under $100. They do it because their cars are mostly build to order, so people don't normally buy them off the floor. If Tesla just let the floor models never be bought, then they'd end up with older models on the floor and couldn't show newer models. Thus they give a little push out the door so they can roll in some newer vehicles.
 
IBFInternational Boxing Federation
IBFInternational Basketball Foundation (est. 2008)
IBFIntranet Benchmarking Forum (UK)
IBFInternational Business and Finance (various organizations)
IBFInstitute of Banking and Finance (various locations)
IBFIslamic Banking & Finance
IBFInternet Best Friend
IBFIntegrated Body Frame
IBFIntent Based Filtering
IBFInput Buffer Full
IBFInternational Banking Facility
IBFInternational Badminton Federation
IBFInternational Business Forum
IBFInternational Bicycle Fund
IBFInformation Bridge Framework (Microsoft)
IBFInternational Buffalo Federation
IBFIstituto Di Biofisica (Italian)
IBFInternational Basketball Federation
IBFInternational Business Fellowship (various locations)
IBFInlet Barrier Filter
IBFInternally Blown Flap (US NASA)
IBFIcebound Fortitude (World of Warcraft)
IBFInstitute of Business and Finance
IBFInternational Broadcast Facilities (London, UK)
IBFInternational Bamboo Foundation
IBFIndian Broadcasting Foundation
IBFInvision Board Forums
IBFInternet Business Forum
IBFIowa Barn Foundation
IBFIon Beam Facility
IBFInternational Buddhist Foundation (est. 1995)
IBFInvestment and Brokerage Firm
IBFInternational Brotherhood of Freeloaders
 
Huge promotions? They throw in 1000 miles of free charging, worth under $100. They do it because their cars are mostly build to order, so people don't normally buy them off the floor. If Tesla just let the floor models never be bought, then they'd end up with older models on the floor and couldn't show newer models. Thus they give a little push out the door so they can roll in some newer vehicles.
At the end of the Dec 20 quarter they were offering one whole year of supercharging and generally do some sort of promotion at the end of every quarter, including producing the "$35K" Model 3 for a period again last year - if a business cannot make enough of something to meet demand, there is no need for promotions - especially if everything is built to order.
 
At the end of the Dec 20 quarter they were offering one whole year of supercharging and generally do some sort of promotion at the end of every quarter, including producing the "$35K" Model 3 for a period again last year - if a business cannot make enough of something to meet demand, there is no need for promotions - especially if everything is built to order.
A year of free supercharging has minimal cost to Tesla. Most charging is done at home or work. I’d guess the average year of free supercharging works out to about 10 stops that would otherwise cost about $10 each, so again, about $100.

Talking about free supercharging is funny because people think of it like free gas, but it’s really not at all the same. First, it’s a lot cheaper than gas. Second, it’s done a lot less frequently than gas.

Tons of businesses offer totally free “slow charging” (~30 kW instead of ~250 kW). It has minimal cost to the business - maybe $1 per person and it brings them into a store where they’ll spend $100+.

As for the $35K car, you can always get that. It’s not offered online, but if you ask in store for it, they’ll give it to you. They just disable several features that are otherwise standard, and they tell you that you can reenable those features at any point by tapping a button in the app and paying $3K. Which features get disabled has changed overtime - I know at one point they would disable seat profiles so you’d have to manually adjust them. Obnoxious stuff like that. They view it more as financing - sell the hardware now, and upsell you into enabling the features later, at which point you’ve paid more than you would have had you just ordered the standard base.
 
A year of free supercharging has minimal cost to Tesla. Most charging is done at home or work. I’d guess the average year of free supercharging works out to about 10 stops that would otherwise cost about $10 each, so again, about $100.

Talking about free supercharging is funny because people think of it like free gas, but it’s really not at all the same. First, it’s a lot cheaper than gas. Second, it’s done a lot less frequently than gas.
Wasn't one of the issues Tesla had when supercharging was included in the purchase price was people would use them for routine charging and leave a car parked tehre for and extended period and thus it was difficult to find one.
 
Wasn't one of the issues Tesla had when supercharging was included in the purchase price was people would use them for routine charging and leave a car parked tehre for and extended period and thus it was difficult to find one.
That was true, but they have since added idle charges to busy supercharging stations. Even if your supercharging is free you'll still get hit with idle fees if you leave the vehicle plugged in after the charge completes.
 
Wasn't one of the issues Tesla had when supercharging was included in the purchase price was people would use them for routine charging and leave a car parked tehre for and extended period and thus it was difficult to find one.
Yeah. Because Tesla offered free unlimited supercharging forever, it meant that some people found just charging at superchargers 100% of the time more convenient than getting a charger installed at their house or work.

By adding a limit, people know that sooner or later they'll need a charger installed elsewhere. So may as well just get that charger installed and use that instead of misusing the supercharger network.
 
Yeah. Because Tesla offered free unlimited supercharging forever, it meant that some people found just charging at superchargers 100% of the time more convenient than getting a charger installed at their house or work.

By adding a limit, people know that sooner or later they'll need a charger installed elsewhere. So may as well just get that charger installed and use that instead of misusing the supercharger network.
That's the problem when you offer free unlimited - people take you at your word for it. If Tesla offered me free and unlimited I would use it as often as I could and expect others to do the same and Tesla to build out their network to keep pace. Saying they didn't mean for people not to use it that way is a cop-out; don't offer it if you can't deliver it.
 
That's the problem when you offer free unlimited - people take you at your word for it. If Tesla offered me free and unlimited I would use it as often as I could and expect others to do the same and Tesla to build out their network to keep pace. Saying they didn't mean for people not to use it that way is a cop-out; don't offer it if you can't deliver it.

Think of it this way - you can get free, unlimited water from a drinking fountain. This is in contrast to the tap water at your home, where you have to pay a monthly water bill.

Do you exclusively drink from the drinking fountain?

No, that would make you an insane person. You drink from it when you're in the area and thirsty, and otherwise you just get tap water even though it costs more because it's more convenient.

Tesla thought people would handle supercharging the same way. Handy when you're in the area and you need it, but otherwise you'll just charge at home.

Instead, Tesla found that people would just park at the supercharger all day. Queues would form for the supercharger. It's like somebody sleeping at the drinking fountain keeping anyone else from using it. It's like people queueing up for the drinking fountains.

Of course, the reason for the breakdown in the analogy is not everyone had a charging solution at home. They knew the superchargers were available, so they didn't bother getting a solution at home. It's kind of like not calling a plumber to fix your sink because you decide you just won't drink water at home, you'll just use a drinking fountain... which is probably an apt comparison that a few people would actually do if they found their sinks didn't work at home.

So... now Tesla gives a nudge. You can't just use superchargers forever, so call an electrician and figure out how you'll be charging at home or at work.
 
Of course, the reason for the breakdown in the analogy is not everyone had a charging solution at home. They knew the superchargers were available, so they didn't bother getting a solution at home. It's kind of like not calling a plumber to fix your sink because you decide you just won't drink water at home, you'll just use a drinking fountain... which is probably an apt comparison that a few people would actually do if they found their sinks didn't work at home.

So... now Tesla gives a nudge. You can't just use superchargers forever, so call an electrician and figure out how you'll be charging at home or at work.

While I agree with you, even with parking fees if Tesla offers free supercharging again it will get overused; or there will be so few round that people will consider the freebee useless.

I took a look at several major metropolitan areas and could easily combine a supercharger trip with a grocery trip, so why not? No need to charge at home regularly.
 
While I agree with you, even with parking fees if Tesla offers free supercharging again it will get overused; or there will be so few round that people will consider the freebee useless.

I took a look at several major metropolitan areas and could easily combine a supercharger trip with a grocery trip, so why not? No need to charge at home regularly.
Honestly, the biggest “hidden” reason you shouldn’t DC Fast charge often is it kills the battery faster, but not fast enough to get a warranty replacement. Tesla nerfs the charge rate for S and X when you have some number of KWh from fast charging. It isn’t clear if the 3 and Y have a limit or where it is yet.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ArtOfWarfare
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.