And what happens to Apple when they've bought enough shares back that Carl owns 51% of what's left?
Icahn owns 0.88% of all AAPL shares. So Apple would have to buy back all but 1.8% of its shares, that is 98.2% of all shares. To do that, Apple would have to give 98.2% of all its value back to the share holders. Icahn would have 51% of a tiny company that isn't worth much.
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All correct. Just Icahn has a different opinion about the stock. He is saying that he thinks the shares are low. He is predicting that the market is going to catch on to this fact eventually. By saying "Apple is quite high at the moment", you are taking opposite view. If you are right, Apple should keep its money and continue to earn 1% on it investing in safe government bonds. If Icahn is right, Apple should buy shares for $101 today because they will be worth $203 in a year or two. We don't know which of you is right. However, we do know that Icahn was right when Apple was trading at 46% less a year ago. All of Apple's buybacks in the last year have been terrifically good trades.
Well, a year ago I would have agreed.
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That's mathematical gibberish. Given x number of shares owned by him, there's a specific number of shares that Apple could buy back and all he would need to do would be to hold on to his and he'd have 51%. No additional investing on his part required. Of course, he can use the dividends to continue buying shares, so the number Apple needs to buy back to give him control would be smaller. In addition, there's no reason he couldn't be working with a partner or partners on this, if control of the company is his ultimate goal. Together they could have more than 1% already.
If there are other shareholders owning 1.2% of the company right now, and these people don't sell, he can never get the majority.