Coronavirus (Covid-19) informational thread

[pshufd]

The N95s are a lot nicer to use than surgical masks. I did read the directions too. I opened up a box of the flat kind that you open up. I also have a box of the type that are 3D and don't change. Those came in a rather large package. I haven't opened those up yet but I will get around to it. I saw a person with a mask on at the gym working out. This was before 6 AM. I don't think that I'd do cardio with a mask on. I will run around the indoor track, particularly if I'm the only one in the field house where the track is. There usually isn't anyone else before 7 AM. If the place is otherwise deserted, then I'll run on a treadmill. There are treadmills in various places so I look for one in an area that's empty.

This is the last week of camp so I can go in the middle of the day if I want to without worrying about a large number of kids running around.

 

[Gregg2]

Never mind. Someone else already made the point I did. Posts were hiding on me!

 

[BoxerGT2.5]

I'm trying to understand the purpose of requiring proof of vaccination to enter certain establishments. Vaccinated people can carry and transmit the virus just as equally as someone who'd unvaccinated. So who are you trying to protect? This is coming from someone who's vaccinated and works in healthcare.

 

[Mainsail]

I'm trying to understand the purpose of requiring proof of vaccination to enter certain establishments. Vaccinated people can carry and transmit the virus just as equally as someone who'd unvaccinated. So who are you trying to protect? This is coming from someone who's vaccinated and works in healthcare.

No. Vaccinated people do not carry and transmit the virus as easily as an unvaccinated person. This is the single biggest failure of the CDC messaging when they reversed position on masking vaccinated people. An unvaccinated person is 8 fold more likely to be infected. So, when two vaccinated people are together they are both much less likely to be infected in the first place. You can not transmit if you are not infected. Also, there seems to be serious questions about the transmissibility of vaccinated people, since this was based upon nose and throat swabs and a now discredited singular outbreak in Provincetown. More research is necessary on transmissibility, but it is clear that vaccinated people are less likely to be infected in the first place. On CNN a week or so ago, Dr Wen said that she would much rather be in a small indoor space with a random vaccinated person than a random unvaccinated person.

Finally, and most importantly, if a vaccinated person gets infected they are 25 times less likely to experience serious illness. So, the risk of two vaccinated people interacting is significantly lower. Remember the formula for Risk: Probability x Consequence = Risk. For vaccinated: the probability of infection is much lower, and the consequence of infection is significantly lower. Therefore, the risk related to the interaction of two vaccinated people is substantially lower. Of course, there is no risk free public health policy, but allowing vaccinated people to interact appears to be an acceptable risk at this time.

 

[Mainsail]

First, let me say that I am a big fan of vaccinations, and everyone in my family is vaccinated....20 - 88 y.o. That said, I am concerned about vaccinating young children. The risk of death to children under 18 is extremely low. Per the CDC, there have been 430 deaths from a population of about 75 million under 18 y.o. So, death from COVID in children under 12 y.o. is extremely rare. I am ok with vaccinating this group if, and only if, the benefits to kids outweigh the risks, and no vaccination program is without risk. If the benefits don't outweigh the risk to children, I would not support vaccinating kids to reduce transmission and protect unvaccinated adults. Bad trade-off.

I suspect the CDC/FDA will do the right thing, but the vaccination risk to children better be damn low given the extremely low mortality rate in children. I get a little bent when I hear about how kids might infect their parents or grandparents. Adults should get vaccinated to protect themselves and others. Adults protect kids. Kids don't protect adults.

 

[pshufd]

First, let me say that I am a big fan of vaccinations, and everyone in my family is vaccinated....20 - 88 y.o. That said, I am concerned about vaccinating young children. The risk of death to children under 18 is extremely low. Per the CDC, there have been 430 deaths from a population of about 75 million under 18 y.o. So, death from COVID in children under 12 y.o. is extremely rare. I am ok with vaccinating this group if, and only if, the benefits to kids outweigh the risks, and no vaccination program is without risk. If the benefits don't outweigh the risk to children, I would not support vaccinating kids to reduce transmission and protect unvaccinated adults. Bad trade-off.

I suspect the CDC/FDA will do the right thing, but the vaccination risk to children better be damn low given the extremely low mortality rate in children. I get a little bent when I hear about how kids might infect their parents or grandparents. Adults should get vaccinated to protect themselves and others. Adults protect kids. Kids don't protect adults.

I recall problems with the Whooping Cough vaccine back in the 1990s and I asked the pediatrician about it. He understood my concerns and he said that there was an alternate vaccine that we could use and that he was going to use it for our kids. Vaccines are provided by our state government so healthcare facilities use the free stuff. They may also have alternate vaccines but you have to ask about them.

But the point is that we have had problems with vaccines in the past with kids.

 

[BoxerGT2.5]

No. Vaccinated people do not carry and transmit the virus as easily as an unvaccinated person. This is the single biggest failure of the CDC messaging when they reversed position on masking vaccinated people. An unvaccinated person is 8 fold more likely to be infected. So, when two vaccinated people are together they are both much less likely to be infected in the first place. You can not transmit if you are not infected. Also, there seems to be serious questions about the transmissibility of vaccinated people, since this was based upon nose and throat swabs and a now discredited singular outbreak in Provincetown. More research is necessary on transmissibility, but it is clear that vaccinated people are less likely to be infected in the first place. On CNN a week or so ago, Dr Wen said that she would much rather be in a small indoor space with a random vaccinated person than a random unvaccinated person.

Finally, and most importantly, if a vaccinated person gets infected they are 25 times less likely to experience serious illness. So, the risk of two vaccinated people interacting is significantly lower. Remember the formula for Risk: Probability x Consequence = Risk. For vaccinated: the probability of infection is much lower, and the consequence of infection is significantly lower. Therefore, the risk related to the interaction of two vaccinated people is substantially lower. Of course, there is no risk free public health policy, but allowing vaccinated people to interact appears to be an acceptable risk at this time.

I said equally, not as easily. A study out of John Hopkins was just published that revealed vaccinated people carry the same viral load (delta) as unvaccinated. Again, who are you protecting by banning unvaccinated people? You're protecting them against themselves, as they are the primary population coming down with serious disease.

Vaccinated People With Breakthrough Infections Can Spread The Delta Variant, CDC Says

In an outbreak in Provincetown, Mass., three-quarters of cases occurred in fully vaccinated people. The study's findings suggest that vaccinated people infected with delta can transmit the virus.

www.npr.org

The CDC said the finding that fully vaccinated people could spread the virus was behind its move to change its mask guidance.

"High viral loads suggest an increased risk of transmission and raised concern that, unlike with other variants, vaccinated people infected with Delta can transmit the virus," Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the CDC's director, said in a statement Friday.

 

[Mainsail]

I said equally, not as easily. A study out of John Hopkins was just published that revealed vaccinated people carry the same viral load (delta) as unvaccinated. Again, who are you protecting by banning unvaccinated people? You're protecting them against themselves, as they are the primary population coming down with serious disease.

Vaccinated People With Breakthrough Infections Can Spread The Delta Variant, CDC Says

In an outbreak in Provincetown, Mass., three-quarters of cases occurred in fully vaccinated people. The study's findings suggest that vaccinated people infected with delta can transmit the virus.

www.npr.org

The big problem is that the words "can spread" are completely useless. It is journalistic but gives no sense of probability or risk. The CDC has spent weeks trying to clean-up the mess they made by not giving enough context and feeding anti-vaxxer misinformation. They stepped all over their own message about the value of vaccination. The truth is vaccinated people are less likely to get infected (ergo less likely to transmit) and less likely to have sever illness if infected, so the risk to themselves and others is much less. Therefore, when two vaccinated people interact, the risk is much less of infection, hospitalization or death resulting from the interaction.

Likewise, when two unvaccinated people interact, the risk is significantly higher of both infection and serious illness. This is the reason our hospitals are filling up with unvaccinated people rather than vaccinated people. There is a societal cost to having ICUs and ERs taken down by people who are unvaccinated. If all of the unvaccinated adults lived on an island and never left and didn't drain the larger health care system and paid for their hospitalization out of their own pocket, it might be another story. But, this is not the reality that we live in.

BTW - If the consequence of being unvaccinated were only born by eligible vaccinated adults, I would be with you 100%. There is a big part of me that prefers not to waste resources protecting unvaccinated from themselves. Unfortunately, that's not how it works. We are all paying the price.

 

[poorcody]

I said equally, not as easily. A study out of John Hopkins was just published that revealed vaccinated people carry the same viral load (delta) as unvaccinated. Again, who are you protecting by banning unvaccinated people? You're protecting them against themselves, as they are the primary population coming down with serious disease.

As it turns out, having the virus load in the nose and throat does not translate to increased "infectioness" for the vaccinated. This is what caused a lot of confusion when it was first discovered. See my post from earlier in the thread:

The chance of passing the virus onto others [with Delta] is interesting. Despite the high viral load found in the nasal passages, for vaccinated people, the vaccine is still effective in blocking transmission, because you transmit by producing aerosols in the lungs, where your immune system has been able to mount a defense. For unvaccinated people, the amount of viral load in the nasal passages directly correlated to transmissibility because it migrated successfully to the lungs.

Bottom line: the vaccinated are more likely to test positive [with Delta], but it is of little consequence to them or others.

EDIT: Here is a link to Dr. Gottlieb describing this on Face the Nation August 1 (video and transcript).

 

[Mainsail]

As it turns out, having the virus load in the nose and throat does not translate to increased "infectioness" for the vaccinated. This is what caused a lot of confusion when it was first discovered. See my post from earlier in the thread:

Thanks for clearing that up. It seems that more research needs to be done on this transmissibility issue. Clearly, vaccinated people are less likely to get infected in the first place, and that means a random vaccinated person is less likely to infect someone else than a random unvaccinated person.

 

[44267547]

Fauci suspects the pandemic _could_ possibly under control by spring 2022 if the near 90 million unvaccinated turn the tables by changing their minds.

My thoughts are, so much can change between now and then, it seems almost unrealistic to make any predictions that far in advance, especially with the consistency of the mutations. But by any sort, given Delta is extremely dangerous, do these 90 million people care enough to be swayed even at this point to be vaccinated? (I’m asking rhetorically.) It’s been rehashed many times that the majority of people who are choosing not to be vaccinated at this stage, probably won’t change their mind at all for XYZ using any leverage possible. I already know a few people directly that still refuse to become inoculated, even when the FDA approved Pfizer.

 

[yaxomoxay]

Fauci suspects the pandemic _could_ possibly under control by spring 2022 if the near 90 million unvaccinated turn the tables by changing their minds.

My thoughts are, so much can change between now and then, it seems almost unrealistic to make any predictions that far in advance, especially with the consistency of the mutations. But by any sort, given Delta is extremely dangerous, do these 90 million people care enough to be swayed even at this point to be vaccinated? (I’m asking rhetorically.) It’s been rehashed many times that the majority of people who are choosing not to be vaccinated at this stage, probably won’t change their mind at all. I already know a few people directly that still refuse to become inoculated, even when the FDA approved Pfizer.

There are 75M unvaccinated adults, not 90, and we're still going at a rate between 800,000 and 1,000,000 vaccines a day (now increasing probably due to delta and companies enforcing rules). I think we're going to be in a much better shape by Christmas. I assume that a % of the population will not accept vaccines, ever, but at that point they'll likely just get COVID.

 

[44267547]

There are 75M unvaccinated adults, not 90,

You’d be incorrect. Perhaps check your balance with Fauci’s number. [Unless he’s including other factoring ages versus just ‘adults.’]

“If we can get through this winter and get really the majority, overwhelming majority of the 90 million people who have not been vaccinated, I hope we could start to get some good control in the spring of 2022,” Fauci told CNN’s Anderson Cooper Monday.”, I hope we could start to get some good control in the spring of 2022,” Fauci told CNN’s Anderson Cooper Monday.”

Fauci: US could control COVID-19 by next spring if ‘overwhelming majority’ is vaccinated

Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Anthony Fauci said the U.S. could have a handle on the coronavirus by next spring if vaccination rates rise substantially.…

thehill.com

 

[Cave Man]

That’s a really dubious analogy. First off, the medium age for Measles outbreaks I think it like six years old. I don’t see mask wearing to be significant in that age group at any time during COVID. The closing of daycares and decreased socialization is the most likely explanation, especially considering the absolute numbers are so low.

All day cares require current vaccinations, so they are unlikely to be the cause of measles virus declines. Besides, they opened back up last spring in most states and if your hypothesis were correct we should have many more than 2 measles cases in the entirety of the United States by now. Measles cases and outbreaks are nearly all tied to imported cases that then transmit to unvaccinated cohorts.

 

[yaxomoxay]

You’d be incorrect. Perhaps check your balance with Fauci’s number. [Unless he’s including other factoring ages versus just ‘adults.’]

“If we can get through this winter and get really the majority, overwhelming majority of the 90 million people who have not been vaccinated, I hope we could start to get some good control in the spring of 2022,” Fauci told CNN’s Anderson Cooper Monday.”, I hope we could start to get some good control in the spring of 2022,” Fauci told CNN’s Anderson Cooper Monday.”

Fauci: US could control COVID-19 by next spring if ‘overwhelming majority’ is vaccinated

Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Anthony Fauci said the U.S. could have a handle on the coronavirus by next spring if vaccination rates rise substantially.…

thehill.com

US Population: 328M
Less Vaccinated: 202M as of Tuesday
Less Individuals 0-12: about 48M
Equals About 78M.

 

[Mainsail]

Fauci suspects the pandemic _could_ possibly under control by spring 2022 if the near 90 million unvaccinated turn the tables by changing their minds.

My thoughts are, so much can change between now and then, it seems almost unrealistic to make any predictions that far in advance, especially with the consistency of the mutations. But by any sort, given Delta is extremely dangerous, do these 90 million people care enough to be swayed even at this point to be vaccinated? (I’m asking rhetorically.) It’s been rehashed many times that the majority of people who are choosing not to be vaccinated at this stage, probably won’t change their mind at all for XYZ using any leverage possible. I already know a few people directly that still refuse to become inoculated, even when the FDA approved Pfizer.

Well, I see three things that might change the unvaccinated person’s mind:

• FDA approval (no idea if this is a significant number, but there were probably some folks sitting on the fence)
• Fear of illness (getting sick or knowing someone severely sick)
• Vaccination mandates (by employers, airlines, gyms, hotels, schools, etc..)

My son’s university requires vaccination. They have 99% documented vaccination of students, faculty, and staff. A few people could be lying, but the penalty could be sever….. How would you like to explain on a job or college admissions application that you were fired or expelled because you lied about your vaccination status? Good luck finding another job or school that will take you.

 

[44267547]

Well, I see three things that might change the unvaccinated person’s mind:

• FDA approval (no idea if this is a significant number, but there were probably some folks sitting on the fence)
• Fear of illness (getting sick or knowing someone severely sick)
• Vaccination mandates (by employers, airlines, gyms, hotels, schools, etc..)

My son’s university requires vaccination. They have 99% documented vaccination of students, faculty, and staff. A few people could be lying, but the penalty could be sever….. How would you like to explain on a job or college admissions application that you were fired or expelled because you lied about your vaccination status? Good luck finding another job or school that will take you.

Personally, I would like to see airlines require a vaccination, but that’s a steep hurdle to cross. Quite a few private universities are requiring vaccinations in my area, with some public institutions, but not all of them.

I believe in the beginning, when vaccinations were first being introduced, quite a few employers were very hesitant to make any type of requirement. But over the last three months, that’s changing quickly with all types of employers in various industries requiring the vaccination, and now with the FDA approval, it’s just more leverage for employers to mandate it.

Also, a few of the people that I know that won’t get vaccinated, is more or less for ‘religious reasons’ that they don’t want to put something in their body that’s not wholesome/natural and of course those who use the rural excuse of ‘I live in the countryside, the virus doesn’t exist out here’. Well….we all know that’s not how this works and we’ve seen the dark result(s) time and time again for those people who claim religious reasons or rural exclusion.

 

[bunnspecial]

A few random thoughts on this Tuesday night when I really should be working on other things but am procrastinating:

1. Initially I had a bit of a hang-up with employers requiring the vaccine for one specific reason-it was being given under EUA and not FDA approval. That's not to say I personally doubt the safety or effectiveness of the vaccine-I got my first dose about a week after my local health department texted me that I was able(the soonest I could get it that worked in my schedule) and had my second dose 3 weeks to the day after the first.

Still, though, we now have one FDA approved vaccine, so that mental hurdle for me is gone and I say companies SHOULD start requiring it of their employees.

2. There's a whole lot to unpack with business requiring it for entry, the vaccine being required on flights, and the like and I don't like it. Again, from a public health perspective everyone SHOULD get it and I don't have a problem with employers, etc, requiring it but I have a real problem with a "show me your card" policy to be able to enter a store or other public business.

3. My own employer, a community college that serves an area with relatively low vaccine rates as a whole(some of our neighboring counties are in the mid-30% range) is considering requiring faculty/staff at a minimum and possibly students to be vaccinated. I support them in this, and a faculty poll last week showed that we are 82% full vaccinated and 2% at one dose. Staff numbers are similar. Unfortunately, we are at 14% in the never category. Unfortunately, student numbers are around 62%, and 22% in the "never" category(5% planning on it, remainder 1 dose).

I was glad, however, that we were specifically told we could actively encourage our students to be vaccinated. So far we're only halfway through the first week, but I have made it a point to tell all of my classes that I am vaccinated and encourage everyone to do so.

 

[pshufd]

One of my hospitals asked for my vaccination information and I’d guess that this is for treatment reasons. I suppose that they might send out emails to people too though they send reminders on vaccinations in their regular mails.

it would be difficult to mandate vaccination for customers in general because of the difficulty of verification.

 

[Gregg2]

There are 75M unvaccinated adults, not 90, and we're still going at a rate between 800,000 and 1,000,000 vaccines a day (now increasing probably due to delta and companies enforcing rules). I think we're going to be in a much better shape by Christmas. I assume that a % of the population will not accept vaccines, ever, but at that point they'll likely just get COVID.

You never know. Your last sentence is prescient, as we don't know if the rate of vaccinations will stay steady, slow down dramatically, or one day suddenly come to a halt.

 

[yaxomoxay]

You never know. Your last sentence is prescient, as we don't know if the rate of vaccinations will stay steady, slow down dramatically, or one day suddenly come to a halt.

Well, of course I don't have a crystal ball; that's why I prefaced with "I think".

I am pretty sure that a vast majority of the 75M adults that aren't vaccinated are not anti-vaxxers but just people that are slow or that for one reason or another couldn't get to the vaccine. We'll get there, slowly but we will.

 

[poorcody]

You never know. Your last sentence is prescient, as we don't know if the rate of vaccinations will stay steady, slow down dramatically, or one day suddenly come to a halt.

Yeah, and the increased virulence of Delta means we are going to need even higher thresholds of vaccinated people to slow it down:

“We’re now realizing with the variant that’s this transmissible, that we have to get to 85%, maybe, as Tony Fauci said, 90% of the country vaccinated,” said Dr. Peter Hotez, co-director of the Center for Vaccine Development at Texas Children’s Hospital.

From:

Covid: 85-90% of the U.S. must be vaccinated ‘if we’re going to get past this,’ warns Dr. Peter Hotez

Dr. Peter Hotez explains why the spread of the delta coronavirus variant has forced the threshold to achieve herd immunity much higher in the U.S.

www.cnbc.com

 

[pshufd]

I saw one of my sisters for the first time in two years. She was a lot thinner than before and she had a lot of stress lines on her face. She worked on a COVID ward and basically quit/retired last year. It looks like it took quite a toll on her. Her hospital was getting taken over by a for-profit hospital and they were eliminating accrued vacation time and renegotiating contracts. Not really a good way to go when workers are completely stressed out with the work and traveling nurses can make $140/hour.

 

[iOS Geek]

I came across something on Reddit about healthcare workers who refuse the vaccine. I will preface this by saying I'm a healthcare worker who got vaccinated in January/February. I'm pro-vaccine and would encourage other healthcare workers. Was I nervous to be first in line? Oooh you bet I was! With that out of the way, the post I read offered up an interesting perspective.

It was about how a lot (but not all) of the healthcare workers who are refusing...are doing so not because of mistrust in the vaccine. It's because they felt so abused and mistreated this past year and after being treated like absolute garbage, with poor PPE, no hazard pay, and short staff. Meanwhile, our administrations raked in the dollars and got huge bonus checks at year-end. We were steamrolled by our administration this past year and now they'll fire us without giving a second thought. At a time when cases are rising and they need us, they will get rid of us and not care.

It was a long post and what I put above was basically a summary, but to me, overall it came across as exposing how we were treated during the pandemic. And I would have to agree with that accusation. You had the public calling us "heroes". But inside the walls of those buildings, we were treated like the opposite.

So, to doctors, nurses, CNA's, etc...from a fellow nurse...if you can get the shot...please do it. But don't do it for your management. Do it for your patients. It may sound like management is saying "fine, then we don't need you" (heck, that is almost literally the messaging my administration is giving us). But your patients DO need you.

 

[poorcody]

I think it would be interesting if Insurance companies tried to tell their subscribers if you’re eligible and not vaccinated by D-date, we won’t cover your healthcare costs if you’re hospitalized for COVID. Not sure that would hold up legally but it would be interesting to explore.

Or this:

"Delta Air Lines is raising health insurance premiums for unvaccinated employees by $200 a month to cover higher Covid costs"​

Delta Air Lines is raising health insurance premiums for unvaccinated employees by $200 a month to cover higher Covid costs

Delta is the latest company to issue new rules for employee vaccinations, but stopped short of an outright mandate.

www.cnbc.com