It doesn't add up. If 10% of phones are jailbroken, and for every sale, 3 copies are pirated,
Lots of developers have good evidence for the above numbers from analytic data sent back to them about their apps. Some apps are pirated by even more than 3:1, according to server hits by patched/modified apps. Furthermore, lots of jailbreakers have (and only jailbreakers can) modified their system to block sending out analytic data. And some pirated apps have analytic reporting removed. So the above piracy numbers may be on the
low side.
Don't be surprised at these numbers.
Pirates tend to run in groups. For every bunch of you who have never seen a pirated app, there is another group in another country where almost everybody has pirated apps.
then there are 30 times as many (non-free) applications on the average jailbroken phone, compared to the average legit phone.
If 10% of those would have been bought if piracy were not an option, then they are saying that the average pirate, without a means to pirate, would buy 3 times more applications than the average non-pirate. Pure nonsense.
Agreed.
People tend to download between 5X and 20X more free apps than paid. Since, for a pirate all apps are free, their pirating at least 10X more paid apps, compared to paying customers, would not be surprising. The 30X number might mean the average pirate samples 2X to 4X more apps (e.g. maybe there is some sort of app addiction mental problem in a much bigger percentage of pirate personality types.)
Back when the pirates weren't as clever at cracking/patching apps, a few devs could make their apps stop working when detecting that they were pirated (for example: pirate changed something that a normal iTunes install doesn't), and put up an advertisement to buy the app from the App store instead. The conversion rate these apps saw was more like 1%, not 10%.
That percentage could be used to calculate more like $45 Million in lost potential app sales revenue (instead of $450M).
It's still a big deal.
And a huge amount more of Federal (and International) copyright law violation.