So, mystery of mystery in the UPS tracking data. The order was processed at 11am yesterday and scanned by UPS at 6:21p last night in Chicago BEFORE my card was charged. It departed Chicago after midnight BEFORE my card was charged. It arrived in Maumee, Ohio (?!) around the time my card was charged status changed to PFS at 6:25 a.m. today. It arrived in Parsippany, N.J., at 3:15, an hour and a half before Apple sent me a shipping confirmation. It's going to take a day to cross the Hudson, apparently, but I'm fine with that.
This sort of explains what seem like incredibly fast shipping times. In fact, this is "standard shipping" -- the packages are on the move before the confirmations go out.
This is probably good news for anyone who had a billing / bank problem. If you sort it out your package is already on its way.