Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
Originally posted by AlphaTech
Something else, did ANY of the other countries in the previous war with saddam have troops come down with the "gulf war syndrome"?? Don't answer unless you have facts to back it up.
Yes: the British Army. Many, many cases.

And for God's sake think what you are saying when you advocate using nuclear weapons. I can't believe you seriously consider this to be a solution. How much "collateral damage" would you accept? 200,000? 500,000?
 
Originally posted by FatTony
I don't think it is appropriate to use this statistic to make conlusions about radioactivity. One would have to make huge leaps to connect the two, there are just too many variables.

Yes, that's exactly my point: it is scientifically irresponsible to place all possible blame on but one possible variable when you haven't even bothered to eliminate any of the other known contributing variables.



As far as levels of radioactivity being healthy vs. causing cancer, there is still much debate about this. Many credible scientist fall on each side of the debate. There just isn't enough research to determine the truth about low levels of radiation, yet.

Agreed - - there's a lot of research that needs to be done. What I've seen is that there's often several tenuous leaps of faith that are required to link animal studies to human bioeffects. Radiation used to scare me a lot more in the past, when I was unaware of just how much of it exists within our ambient environment, and for which we have essentially no control over. Personally, I've been in Uranium-contaminated structures and was quite nervous, until it was pointed out to me that the airline flight I took to get to that destination gave me a stronger radiation dose than if I would get even if I were to get down and literally lick the dust off the floor.


I'm not making any conclusion about health risks...I just don't know enough about it, but I can't imagine it would be benficial. Is this one of the theories behind Gulf War Syndrome?

My perspective is that I'm not going to be Chicken Little about what we already have a pretty good idea is only a relatively small risk. If I were truely risk-adverse, I'd have to give up my automobile. There's enough things in this world to worry about, and this one is not high enough on the priority list to make the cut.

Insofar as the Gulf War Syndrome, everything is on someone's radar screen. I have a relative who's afflicted and I know that their exposure to DU was zero, but their exposure to the burning crude was known to be high. As such, I'd say that the most likely "smoking gun" for their health challenges were due to the oil fires.


FWIW, there's also people out there who are claiming that Tungsten is the new DU. While there have been some toxicology studies which have shown that there is biological uptake in worms and ryegrass, W alone has no-as-yet-measured adverse health effect...it is problemmatic when alloyed with Nickel and/or Cadmium, which are bad players with or without the W. Nevertheless, there are people who are playing political games by choosing to blame the W and conveniently forget to mention the alloying agents, which is scientifically reprehensible.


-hh
 
Gulf War Syndrome is real.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/special_report/1998/gulf_war_syndrome/48037.stm

It really upsets me to see this stance from the pro-war crowd. How can you be "pro-troops" in one breath, use that stance to attack the anti-war protesters as being unpatriotic (especially while an American who volunteered to risk his life is dying for the protesters' right to protest :rolleyes: ) and then attack the vets as being "fakers" when they get sick from fighting? Talk about exploitation.

Oh, well. Bush does the same thing -- uses people (poor kids, troops, vets) for a photo-op or co-ops their life to sell the American people on a tax cut or some such daft thing in a speech and then guts their funding the next day with his pen.
 
Originally posted by skunk
Yes: the British Army. Many, many cases.

And for God's sake think what you are saying when you advocate using nuclear weapons. I can't believe you seriously consider this to be a solution. How much "collateral damage" would you accept? 200,000? 500,000?

Where are your facts to back your statement up?? Has it been determined that DU rounds ARE the cause of the GWS??

The GWS could be a byproduct of Saddam lighting the well as the troops pulled back at the end of the last war.

As for using nukes, a strike centered on the area Saddam holds up in would have collateral damage determined by where he is hiding. If he is in a population center, then that would be the count. IF you recall, I advocate use of nukes only IF he starts using biological and chemical weapons on OUR forces. Both biological and chemical weapons can lead to extremely painful, if not prolonged, deaths. Nukes on the other hand will kill everyone in the blast area instantly. Granted nukes have additional longer lasting effects, but so do some of the biological and chemical weapons. Both biological and chemical weapons can easily drift into population centers causing even more deaths. The technology in nukes is to the point where you can have a [relatively] clean blast with a small area of effect. Use a tactical nuke, and you can take out part of a city, not the entire thing, especially with how large Bagdad is.

I will search for additional information on nukes later... I have places to go, people to see, things to hurt... heh
 
pseudobrit, I NEVER said GWS wasn't real. As mentioned by -hh there are more potential causes for it OTHER then DU munitions. Hell, there could have been something in the sand in certain areas that people inhaled when diggin in, or during storms.

As the oil fires were burning for an extended period of time, thus effecting many more people then DU munitions.
 
Originally posted by -hh
Agreed - - there's a lot of research that needs to be done. What I've seen is that there's often several tenuous leaps of faith that are required to link animal studies to human bioeffects. Radiation used to scare me a lot more in the past, when I was unaware of just how much of it exists within our ambient environment, and for which we have essentially no control over. Personally, I've been in Uranium-contaminated structures and was quite nervous, until it was pointed out to me that the airline flight I took to get to that destination gave me a stronger radiation dose than if I would get even if I were to get down and literally lick the dust off the floor.

My perspective is that I'm not going to be Chicken Little about what we already have a pretty good idea is only a relatively small risk. If I were truely risk-adverse, I'd have to give up my automobile. There's enough things in this world to worry about, and this one is not high enough on the priority list to make the cut.

Insofar as the Gulf War Syndrome, everything is on someone's radar screen. I have a relative who's afflicted and I know that their exposure to DU was zero, but their exposure to the burning crude was known to be high. As such, I'd say that the most likely "smoking gun" for their health challenges were due to the oil fires.

I'd say there's a lot of smoke coming from the gun up in the Balkans too, where the cancer rates are similarly high to those in Iraq around the "hot spots" where DU was deployed, AND the troops are experiencing "Balkan Syndrome."

It turns out that radioactive elements cause much quicker symptoms that science had determined it would -- Chernobyl taught us that. We do not fully know the effects that embedded radioactive particles can cause to humans, but what we do know is that they are worse than we ever presumed they could be.

The epidemiology facts can mislead, but there are too many circumstances here to say that DU is safe until proven harmful.

Comparing swallowing uranium or plutonium to taking an airline flight is a fallacy -- the flight exposes you to outside radiation over your entire body.

Think of it this way -- natural radiation as pressure on a knife held to your throat. Natural radiation can be every bit as powerful over time as the collective radiation in a few particles of uranium. But the natural radiation places the pressure of the knife on the side of the blade -- no matter how hard you press, it won't penetrate the skin. Uranium puts that blade on the point. The same amount of pressure now causes damage, because the force is localised? Does this metaphor make the danger clear?

Natural radiation gives a random sampling of cells a dose. Unnatural radiation exposure of the same scientific magnitude gives a few cells that entire dose.
 
Originally posted by AlphaTech
As for using nukes, a strike centered on the area Saddam holds up in would have collateral damage determined by where he is hiding. If he is in a population center, then that would be the count.
The technology in nukes is to the point where you can have a [relatively] clean blast with a small area of effect. Use a tactical nuke, and you can take out part of a city, not the entire thing, especially with how large Bagdad is.

Poor bastards, we'll have to kill them in order to liberate them.

God has a hard-on for AlphaTech, because he keeps heaven stocked with fresh souls.
--paraphrased from "Full Metal Jacket"
 
Originally posted by AlphaTech
As for using nukes, a strike centered on the area Saddam holds up in would have collateral damage determined by where he is hiding. If he is in a population center, then that would be the count. IF you recall, I advocate use of nukes only IF he starts using biological and chemical weapons on OUR forces. Both biological and chemical weapons can lead to extremely painful, if not prolonged, deaths. Nukes on the other hand will kill everyone in the blast area instantly. Granted nukes have additional longer lasting effects, but so do some of the biological and chemical weapons. Both biological and chemical weapons can easily drift into population centers causing even more deaths. The technology in nukes is to the point where you can have a [relatively] clean blast with a small area of effect. Use a tactical nuke, and you can take out part of a city, not the entire thing, especially with how large Bagdad is.

You're talking in part about neutron bombs I assume. What you're talking about is killing millions of Iraqi civilians and poisoning their land for thousands of years to get one man. Our active tactical nukes are by no means "baby" nukes; they're still about 5Kt, 1/3 as destructive as Little Boy.

I'd hardly call any nuclear weapon "clean" at all -- the fallout and generations of effects are horrible.

Do you understand the geopolitical implications of a US policy of first nuclear strike? You can kiss the planet goodbye now that we're not the only ones with the bomb.
 
So, AlphaTech, let me get this straight: we invade another country without international agreement, on the pretext that they have WMD (which they deny and we can't find), and if the leader of that country resists, as he should, we kill hundreds of thousands of their innocent civilians on the off-chance we'll also kill him? Is that about right? And is this your considered and preferred policy? Your New World Order? How many MORE people do you want to encourage to blow up your buildings? How much MORE misery do you think you are justified in imposing on the rest of the world? If you support this kind of obscene behaviour, you are supporting nothing less than a fascist state.
 
Read this before trying to tell us that using nuclear weapons is okay if he gasses our troops.

Then, I looked next door and I saw the father of
neighboring family standing almost naked. His skin was peeling off all over his body and was hanging from finger tips. I talked to him but he was too exhausted to give me a reply. He was looking for his family desperately.

Still there was a lot for us, medical doctors to learn on that day. I learned that the nuclear weapons which gnaw the minds and bodies of human beings should never be used. Even the slightest idea using nuclear arms should be completely exterminated the minds of human beings. Otherwise, we will repeat the same tragedy. And we will never stop being
ashamed of ourselves.
 
Originally posted by gbojim
The CANDU is designed to use natural uranium containing typically 0.7% U-235. The CANDU can also handle spent PWR fuel quite well which generally contains 0.9 - 1.2% U-235 (which is far higher than the 0.2% U-235 normally found in depleted uranium munitions. Apparently, it is theoretically possible to operate the CANDU at U-235 levels as low as 0.2%, but it would most likely not start at that level.

It's always nice to see someone who knows what they are talking about! Your post is exactly my point! Although it would probably take some fiddling around with the CANDUs to allow them to fission DU, it is certainly possible. No technical modifications would be needed. The control rods would just have to be almost entirely removed from the reactor so that enough slow neutrons would still be present to maintain criticality. As an added bonus to help the DU achieve criticality much faster, a chunk of regular natural uranium (0.7% U-235 concentration) could be thrown in. I also doubt the fission of DU would release much energy or would be able to sustain itself for very long. I'm simply saying that it's possible.

Originally posted by MrMacman
Maybe you can post some articles or facts and please, stop ranting and raving... geez...

I didn't mention sources because most of my information is stuff that I learned several months ago when I worked for AECL (Atomic Energy of Canada Limited). If you want proof of what I am stating, feel free to find it yourself or take a trip to AECL headquarters in Mississauga, Ontario. You could also travel to Chalk River Laboratories in Chalk River, Ontario if you would like an indepth tour (although they are hard to come by, what with all the heightened security they have there now-a-days).

I also have several books handy, which are jam-packed full of information on nuclear power generation and other juicy topics. For proof on the specific raving rant you cited in your quote please refer to chapter 7.1 of the book entitled "Energy Conversion" MCG 4126, written by "Dr. W. Hallet" and copyrighted in 1995.

Some people on these forums are so skeptical of others that its annoying, and sometimes even scary.
 
Originally posted by pseudobrit
I'd say there's a lot of smoke coming from the gun up in the Balkans too, where the cancer rates are similarly high to those in Iraq around the "hot spots" where DU was deployed, AND the troops are experiencing "Balkan Syndrome."

And there were also chronic health issues in Korea, WW-II and -I, where we know that DU hadn't been employed because it hadn't been invented yet.

My point is that there's very reasonable explanations for these observed health issues, if we're able to objectively look (just takes time, money and science). For example, we know that there's a lot of adverse health effects from injesting fine particles, be they plaster or be they asbestos insulation, including cancer. And we know tha any old bomb is sufficient to pulverize a building to release these agents. In doing the science, have we practiced due care in assuring that we've properly run down through the causality budget to attribute the appropriate percentages for each cause? Well, if we're blaming everything on just the "latest and greatest" tech element, then the answer is no: we've failed to be scientifically objective in our risk attributions budget.


It turns out that radioactive elements cause much quicker symptoms that science had determined it would -- Chernobyl taught us that.

And looking at Bikini Atoll, many the adverse health effects have subsided far more rapidly than suspected: Bikini is now open to human visitation after only a 50 year quarrentine from multiple (around a dozen?) atomic blasts. Today, the only significant health restriction is to not eat any land vegitation that accumulatees Cesnium (sic), such as coconuts.


The epidemiology facts can mislead, but there are too many circumstances here to say that DU is safe until proven harmful.

Because the science is not complete, we're obligated to predict the implications based on trends observed in lower forms (rats, etc). The current general conclusion is that there are no gross and obvious health issues that have been found to be expected. We're still a long ways to having 100% fidelity on any human biological process: for example, we don't even know every process step by which cigarettes cause cancer! But the bottom line is that to the best of my knowledge, there's no obvious "low hanging fruit" that warn us of unaccepable significant long term hazards.

Comparing swallowing uranium or plutonium to taking an airline flight is a fallacy -- the flight exposes you to outside radiation over your entire body.

No, its not. The macroscopic effects of point and area doses are what have been historically examined and compared, because the resolution to do the science in any other form did not exist.

The science today is improving, but because of research resourcing limitations, logically, when you macroscopically have observed no significant hazard, you're unlikely to waste the resources to repeat the experiment. If you're examining if a new vaccine is effective for a deadly disease, your first figure of merit is but binary: "did the patient live or die?"


{knive} Does this metaphor make the danger clear?

It makes your approach clear.

Now continue your illustration and reduce the resolution with which you can view your scene. There will become a point where the only conclusion that you would be able to draw from that fatality is that it was likely due to a loss of blood, and you don't know how that loss of blood was caused.

That's where we're really at.

And when you know that there's many other possible environmental hazards for that subject - - car accident, animal attack, hemophelia, etc - - if you lack the resolution to identify the specific cause, it is scientifically irresponsible to jump to the conclusion that any one possible cause is strongly favored over any of the others.


-hh
 
I can understand your thinking, and I think we're both taking the same scientific unknowns and applying a reasonable policy of "better safe than sorry" to them, which is the only logical thing to do. :)

Which means it's simply a difference of how we would apply such a policy.

You're saying better safe than sorry for the troops and I'm saying better safe than sorry for the civilians.

Six of one and a half dozen of the other I guess...
 
Of course if you take into account that our troops have no right to be there in the first place, none of this sophistry would be relevant...
 
Originally posted by pseudobrit
I can understand your thinking, and I think we're both taking the same scientific unknowns and applying a reasonable policy of "better safe than sorry" to them, which is the only logical thing to do. :)

Which means it's simply a difference of how we would apply such a policy.

You're saying better safe than sorry for the troops and I'm saying better safe than sorry for the civilians.

Six of one and a half dozen of the other I guess...
Psuedo your attempt to compare yourself to hh is laughable. He obviously knows what he is talkign about, you obviously do not. He has approached this issue in a scientific way. You have approached in your typical conspiracy theory method. You're not Mel Gibson give it a break. You have been proven repetively wrong, so stop hoping from one foot to the other and admit you don't know what you are talking about. Your sources have been political, not scietnific; this is where your argument is destroyed. If you were able to approach the topic objectively to see whether DU was actually a risk, or just the word uranium gets conspiracy theorists rolling, then you might actually be able to have an intelligent conversation here. However, you have taken your general overly subjective stance of America is evil and this is our latest atrocity. You have obviously been proven wrong by someone who actually knows what they are talkign about. Be a mature adult and admit when you were spewing BS. I have made posts where I was incorrect, and I apologized in those cases. Do you have the maturity to do the same?
 
Originally posted by skunk
Of course if you take into account that our troops have no right to be there in the first place, none of this sophistry would be relevant...
Stop the flamebaiting. This is really getting pathetic.
 
Originally posted by leprechaunG4
Psuedo your attempt to compare yourself to hh is laughable. He obviously knows what he is talkign about, you obviously do not. He has approached this issue in a scientific way. You have approached in your typical conspiracy theory method. You're not Mel Gibson give it a break. You have been proven repetively wrong, so stop hoping from one foot to the other and admit you don't know what you are talking about. Your sources have been political, not scietnific; this is where your argument is destroyed. If you were able to approach the topic objectively to see whether DU was actually a risk, or just the word uranium gets conspiracy theorists rolling, then you might actually be able to have an intelligent conversation here. However, you have taken your general overly subjective stance of America is evil and this is our latest atrocity. You have obviously been proven wrong by someone who actually knows what they are talkign about. Be a mature adult and admit when you were spewing BS. I have made posts where I was incorrect, and I apologized in those cases. Do you have the maturity to do the same?

What are you talking about?? Psuedo makes many valid points, and is no less "scientific" than hh's posts. Just because you don't like what he says doesn't make him wrong. :rolleyes:

Look at this quite balanced article on DU use during the Gulf War.

http://www.antenna.nl/wise/uranium/pdf/dumyths.pdf

It basically makes the point that both sides exxagerate (they do), but that a significant amount depleted uranium did enter areas civilians are regularly exposed to. And that the long term effects of this are unknown.

And, BTW, hh, this is my citation. There were DU bombs dropped on Iraq. And other types of munitions were used. The US also refused shipment of DU contaimenated vehicles back to the US and paid to decontaminate many others. We aren't taking chances with our lives over here, but we don't have a problem doing it with Iraqi lives.

Taft
 
Originally posted by Taft
Look at this quite balanced article on DU use during the Gulf War.

http://www.antenna.nl/wise/uranium/pdf/dumyths.pdf

And, BTW, hh, this is my citation. There were DU bombs dropped on Iraq.

And the very document that you cite states the following disproof of your claim, in Paragraph 3.1, page 8:

"It is possible other missiles contain DU counterweights{25} but there is no reliable evidence to support the highly speculative claims that hundreds of kilograms of DU are used in missiles, rockets and bombs."

If you don't trust your own citation to tell you that there's no reliable emphasis, then there's nothing I or anyone else can say, because you're refusing to be rationale.


FWIW, the same document also goes on to say that the only bomb known to contain a DU casing is nuclear, specifically the B61-11.


And on page 9:

"About 90 percent of the DU dust created by the impact of a tank round against a hard target falls to the ground within 50 meters of the target{29} although airborne DU has been measured out to 400 meters immediately following an impact{30}"

This compiments pretty well with what I said on that subject yesterday. I also located my particle size falling rates information: 100 micrometers takes 11 seconds to fall 10ft, 240um takes 5sec, and 400um, 2sec. Note also that this is was for a material that's more than an order of magnitude less dense than DU.


And paragraph 4.2 addresses what it explictly refers to as the "myth" that DU has caused thousands of cancer deaths, birth defects and other illnesses among people living in Iraq, the Balkans, and Afghanistan. It goes on to say:

"...much of the commentary has suffered from lack of accurate information, and material put out by pressure groups is often willfully misleading{41}.", which affirms what I said yesterday.


Insofar as the issue of DU-contaminated equipment, I am reminded of a fairly recent local radiation "scandal" where a Vietnam vintage Huey helicopter hulk was being removed from a test range. It turns out that the Huey was determined to be "dangerously hot", and the problem was eventually traced down to the chopper's Tritium-powered glow in the dark exit signs.

I also had a college professor who worked for GE and consulted on Nuclear Subs...his wristwatch had tritium glow-in-the-dark capsulets in it, and it was routinely confiscated from him during post-visit radiation sweeps, even after he sent the watch back to the manufacturer to have the capsulets removed.

Meantime, our local homes typically have rads being generated from Radon gas in the basement, which collects there from naturally occuring deposits. The State has no deadline by which time all homes must be tested. Instead, its handled the same way as their smoke detectors requirement: its a conditional deed transfer requirement (translation: ain't going to happen until the house is sold).

Finally, I am prohibited from throwing out glass, aluminum and newspapers in my local trash, but I am not legally prohibited from discarding legal domestically consumed low level nuclear waste.


From all of this, conclude what you wish in regards to how strict and how consistant our domestic standards may or may not be.


-hh
 
Originally posted by -hh
And the very document that you cite states the following disproof of your claim, in Paragraph 3.1, page 8:

"It is possible other missiles contain DU counterweights{25} but there is no reliable evidence to support the highly speculative claims that hundreds of kilograms of DU are used in missiles, rockets and bombs."

If you don't trust your own citation to tell you that there's no reliable emphasis, then there's nothing I or anyone else can say, because you're refusing to be rationale.

...

-hh

You should have read on...

4.2.1 Iraq
During the Gulf War, US tanks and aircraft shot approximately 286 metric tons of DU in Kuwait and Iraq (see Table 1). It is worth noting that for all that DoD has hyped the importance of DU munitions during the Gulf War, it has not released any estimate of the quantity of Iraqi tanks destroyed by DU rounds.(42) In fact, a large variety of guided missiles, cluster bombs, and bullets destroyed approximately 3,700 Iraqi tanks(43) but DU rounds accounted for only around 500 of this total. The real "tank killer" in the Gulf War was the Maverick missile, not the DU round:

• A-10s destroyed 900 Iraqi tanks with Maverick missiles but just 100 with 30mm DU ammunition(44)

• US tanks destroyed approximately 400 Iraqi tanks(45) mainly with DU rounds;

• AV-8Bs primarily targeted Iraqi artillery with cluster bombs, but artillery as well as some tanks and other targets were likely targeted by DU ammunition.(46)

Remember, I was talking about the Gulf War specifically. Read that section, then get back to me.

Taft
 
Though, you may have been right about the bomb/missle point. I may have misread. My bad. But alter my post to read "There were DU munition used in Iraq" and the point stands.

That is the real point of my argument, anyhow.

Specifically addressing your point of the "air time" of the particles, I think its a fallacy to assume that this "fact" negates the harm DU particulates can do to the population. Outside of a laboratory, you have no idea how far the particulates spread, especially in windy conditions, with assimilation with sand, when it gets into gear and vehicles. And when it is used in civilian areas where it could be easily transported by a variety of means to ground water and inside homes.

The paper I cited notes that Iraqi children sometimes used destroyed and contaminated vehicles as playtoys.

This isn't as clearcut as citing some bogus "airtime" statistic. A variety of factors go into creating an environmental hazard and we don't have enough information to state either way about the effects of the use of DU have had.

Taft
 
Originally posted by leprechaunG4
Psuedo your attempt to compare yourself to hh is laughable. He obviously knows what he is talkign about, you obviously do not. He has approached this issue in a scientific way. You have approached in your typical conspiracy theory method. You're not Mel Gibson give it a break. You have been proven repetively wrong, so stop hoping from one foot to the other and admit you don't know what you are talking about. Your sources have been political, not scietnific; this is where your argument is destroyed. If you were able to approach the topic objectively to see whether DU was actually a risk, or just the word uranium gets conspiracy theorists rolling, then you might actually be able to have an intelligent conversation here. However, you have taken your general overly subjective stance of America is evil and this is our latest atrocity. You have obviously been proven wrong by someone who actually knows what they are talkign about. Be a mature adult and admit when you were spewing BS. I have made posts where I was incorrect, and I apologized in those cases. Do you have the maturity to do the same?

Until you can argue like a mature person, please just shut up. I am sick of the personal attacks. You are the only one flamebaiting here.

hh and I both agree that science cannot fully back up either one of our claims for sure, and that we should take a policy to play it safe until and unless that happens.

hh, correct me if I am wrong.
 
Originally posted by Taft
Though, you may have been right about the bomb/missle point. I may have misread. My bad. But alter my post to read "There were DU munition used in Iraq" and the point stands.

That is the real point of my argument, anyhow.

And I fully concede that point; I took dispute with the claims that there were "thousands" of multi-ton DU gravity bombs.


Now at the same time I should warn us all to be very careful as to the statistics that we see so casually thrown about.

For example, for the claimed "tons" of DU munitions, I have no doubt that the numbers add up, but were they added up properly? Specifically, have they been properly accounted for that percentage of the munition that actually is the DU, or did they merely the raw shipping weight for the entire munition?

To illustrate, consider a generic small arms bullet, whose core is made of lead and is a focus of environmental consideration issues. The lead core does not constitute 100% of the actual total bullet mass (its typically no more than ~66%), because it is surrounded by a copper bullet jacket. Next, the bullet is put into a brass cartridge case filled with powder, so its typically only ~33% of the total cartridge weight. The cartridge then gets packaged, and so on. Consequently, when you faithfully go down through the constituent component masses, what you find is that for each literal ton of ammunition on your loading dock, the actual amount of elemental lead is only around ~300lbs. If you get this part wrong, you've made a not quite an order-of-magnitude error: its "only" a ~700% error :D.

My point is maybe they got it right, or maybe not. But when there's a political axe being actively grinded, IMO probably not.



Specifically addressing your point of the "air time" of the particles, I think its a fallacy to assume that this "fact" negates the harm DU particulates can do to the population.

My point is not that there is never any hazard, but merely the objective observation that there must be a reasonable exposure in order to apply any risk metrics. For harm to occur from aerosolized particles, they must be breathed, which means that once the particle hits the ground, the statistical likelihood of subsequently inhaling it drops significantly. In other words, you can't have harm without exposure, and the current analysis infers that the airborne hazard is very discrete and short-lived.


Outside of a laboratory, you have no idea how far the particulates spread, especially in windy conditions...(etc).

Actually, there are empirically validated Gaussian plume computer models that do exactly this type of analysis. Here's a description of one, and here's another. The third one I'm personally aware of doesn't appear to have any open literature references that I can freely cite; sorry.


-hh
 
Originally posted by pseudobrit
hh and I both agree that science cannot fully back up either one of our claims for sure, and that we should take a policy to play it safe until and unless that happens.

hh, correct me if I am wrong.


Pretty close, I'd say. Our difference of opinion is in how to interpret the existing science, and from that, make what decision to proceed (or not).

Until there's literal 100% knowledge, we're always going to have some (small) fraction of individuals who are going to be unwilling to accept any risk of uncertainty.

Similarly, as the knowledge becomes thinner and thinner, we're probably going to have individuals who are willing to accept a risk no matter how little we really know about it.

For this one, we're somewhere in the middle.


FWIW, I'm reminded of the research done by Princeton University's psychology professor Daniel Kahneman, who won the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize for economics with a study on irrational behaviour regaring how risk is perceived versus how it is presented, and the decisions that ensue. Its relevent to this discussion because of the spin-dotoring hot buttons such as this has gotten. When you're tired of Macintosh discussions, its an interesting read.



-hh
 
Originally posted by -hh
My point is not that there is never any hazard, but merely the objective observation that there must be a reasonable exposure in order to apply any risk metrics. For harm to occur from aerosolized particles, they must be breathed, which means that once the particle hits the ground, the statistical likelihood of subsequently inhaling it drops significantly. In other words, you can't have harm without exposure, and the current analysis infers that the airborne hazard is very discrete and short-lived.

But there is evidence that DU spread 25 miles downwind of the munitions plant making it.

There is evidence that the micron size of the particles is significantly smaller than what your initial assumptions in this thread were based on.

I've cited the sources for that.
 
Originally posted by -hh
Pretty close, I'd say. Our difference of opinion is in how to interpret the existing science, and from that, make what decision to proceed (or not).

Until there's literal 100% knowledge, we're always going to have some (small) fraction of individuals who are going to be unwilling to accept any risk of uncertainty.

I admire you as a fellow skeptic. :)

There need to be more people willing to question both facts, science and the spin applied to both.
 
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.