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It's not true to assume that a vast majority of people won't own a 4k TV. You have to realize that these sets will become the new tv's "to buy" and as prices continue to drop, these 4k tv's will replace current HDTV's and the customer will end up buying the 4k tv if that is what is only being sold. It will take some time naturally, but the market will move that way. Try to find a CRT tv at a store now a days and you will probably have a hard time trying to do so. Once 4k tv's continue to flood the market, they will replace current HDTV's. This will be very different than 3D. 3D got a big hype because of Avatar, but in reality, that was almost the only movie the 3D hype lasted for. 4k/2160p sets will replace current HDTV's, not supplement them.
Sorry, let me clarify. I don't disagree that 4K TV's could very likely become standard. The technology behind these things will decrease, so it could make sense that 4K TVs and projectors could become standard. 4K programming? I guess that could become standard, too, but I'd say that that would be farther out if/when standard household/wireless internet speeds get much faster.

Sony's 4K download service is a neat idea, but the infrastructure isn't really there for it. There will be some cutting edge folks who buy into it, but it's not a mainstream idea. Too expensive and too long of a wait time before you can start watching something. Plus, no rental option. The *vast* majority of people want to rent most movies for a couple of bucks, not pay $20+ to own a movie. And when they want to watch a movie, they want to watch it today, not wait overnight for it to download.

You've rightly stated that the vast majority of people don't know much about quality, and don't really care. The reason that HDTV's took off wasn't so much about the added resolution. It was about how flat/light the TVs were, in comparison to CRT. There are countless stories of people who own HDTVs but mistakenly watch the standard-def version of a channel (even when they have access to the HD version of the same TV channel), or hook up their old VHS VCRs, and they don't seem to be bothered by it. Sad, but true.

Until ultra-high-fast internet speeds become standard, 4K programming will be best served by some sort of enhanced Blu-ray disc format. But that will be a niche product catered to videophiles. More and more people are moving to online-delivered formats. iTunes, Netflix, etc. With the current internet speed limitations, 4K simply won't be an option in the near term. Heck, Amazon is touting some sort of "ultra HD" format, but Netflix's picture quality has pretty much always sucked in comparison to iTunes HD.

Again, as someone who owns a front-projection setup, I would love 4K, but I'm a realist. Discs are pretty much dead. And quality 4K delivered over the internet in a "watch now" mode is not feasible in the short term.
 
The reason that HDTV's took off wasn't so much about the added resolution. It was about how flat/light the TVs were, in comparison to CRT. There are countless stories of people who own HDTVs but mistakenly watch the standard-def version of a channel (even when they have access to the HD version of the same TV channel), or hook up their old VHS VCRs, and they don't seem to be bothered by it. Sad, but true.

this. there's also the fact that most tv's arent in an ideal placement/size, especially in bedrooms. even for me, i have my main tv viewing area setup ideally, but bedroom tvs are much to small for the viewing distance, but can't be bigger by virtue of the layout. i'd never have use for a 4K tv in the "other" rooms. people started putting tvs in more rooms because of the slimness/weight and ease of being able to do so, over CRT. 4k doesn't offer some next level reason other than quality
 
Sony's 4K download service is a neat idea, but the infrastructure isn't really there for it. There will be some cutting edge folks who buy into it, but it's not a mainstream idea. Too expensive and too long of a wait time before you can start watching something. Plus, no rental option. The *vast* majority of people want to rent most movies for a couple of bucks, not pay $20+ to own a movie. And when they want to watch a movie, they want to watch it today, not wait overnight for it to download.
That article I quoted says:
whathifi said:
Engadget reports that 4K film downloads will cost $7.99 for a 24-hour rental or a hefty $30 to buy.
You're right, connection speeds are the foremost issue with that said service, but it will improve too, not only the TVs. Especially if more and more media gets streamed online (not just video rentals).
As it stands now, the service is for early adopters, in every respect. But pioneers are needed to venture into new territories.
PAL&NTSC reigned for 50 years, before FullHD took over. This time we transition much faster, I'm sure.
As I see it, even BluRay didn't (and won't) take off as widely as the DVD did. Because it was late to the party and medialess online delivery came, saw and conquered.
 
Sorry, let me clarify. I don't disagree that 4K TV's could very likely become standard. The technology behind these things will decrease, so it could make sense that 4K TVs and projectors could become standard. 4K programming? I guess that could become standard, too, but I'd say that that would be farther out if/when standard household/wireless internet speeds get much faster.

Sony's 4K download service is a neat idea, but the infrastructure isn't really there for it. There will be some cutting edge folks who buy into it, but it's not a mainstream idea. Too expensive and too long of a wait time before you can start watching something. Plus, no rental option. The *vast* majority of people want to rent most movies for a couple of bucks, not pay $20+ to own a movie. And when they want to watch a movie, they want to watch it today, not wait overnight for it to download.

You've rightly stated that the vast majority of people don't know much about quality, and don't really care. The reason that HDTV's took off wasn't so much about the added resolution. It was about how flat/light the TVs were, in comparison to CRT. There are countless stories of people who own HDTVs but mistakenly watch the standard-def version of a channel (even when they have access to the HD version of the same TV channel), or hook up their old VHS VCRs, and they don't seem to be bothered by it. Sad, but true.

Until ultra-high-fast internet speeds become standard, 4K programming will be best served by some sort of enhanced Blu-ray disc format. But that will be a niche product catered to videophiles. More and more people are moving to online-delivered formats. iTunes, Netflix, etc. With the current internet speed limitations, 4K simply won't be an option in the near term. Heck, Amazon is touting some sort of "ultra HD" format, but Netflix's picture quality has pretty much always sucked in comparison to iTunes HD.

Again, as someone who owns a front-projection setup, I would love 4K, but I'm a realist. Discs are pretty much dead. And quality 4K delivered over the internet in a "watch now" mode is not feasible in the short term.
I agree, and it's the sad truth that people mainly buy just to buy it. I was one of them too. When I got my first HDTV a long time ago, I assumed everything I would watch was automatically in HD, even though I didn't even have one HD source hooked up to that tv. Only once I began looking further into it, it's when I actually learned. But I would guess that for most people it still is like that.

I also don't see any way that 4k content will be provided widely over cable or satellite, they still are sending 720p/1080i video, and streaming services or downloads will take way too long. Even if greater speeds are provided, it seems that the providers will put a cap on how much data they will allow the customer to use.

Where I tend to disagree a bit is that part about 4k Blu-ray physical disc remaining a niche. This will be the studios best delivery source for 4k content. I don't think they will sell it as a new format, like Blu-ray was to DVD, but rather a supplement to it. All they have to do is release a regular 2k/1080p Blu-ray of a film and also offer a 4k/2160p - 2k/1080p combo Blu-ray and that will facilitate the transition and availability. Even offer those 4k discs in rental stores. Because even now, physical media makes more revenue than digital media, so I'm sure the studios will want to extend its life without making it seem like a new format is replacing the previous ones.

The .h265 encode will help with the streaming services, but it looks like it will be much more beneficial to the 1080p content rather then the streaming 4k content. The main source of 4k content will probably be in a future physical format and the personal recorded 4k videos.

That article I quoted says:

You're right, connection speeds are the foremost issue with that said service, but it will improve too, not only the TVs. Especially if more and more media gets streamed online (not just video rentals).
As it stands now, the service is for early adopters, in every respect. But pioneers are needed to venture into new territories.
PAL&NTSC reigned for 50 years, before FullHD took over. This time we transition much faster, I'm sure.
As I see it, even BluRay didn't (and won't) take off as widely as the DVD did. Because it was late to the party and medialess online delivery came, saw and conquered.
DVD was a monster, revenue wise, and it seems that no other format will come close to making what DVD's made in its peak. Which is why the studios were never able to kill it off DVD's like they did with VHS. Digital media became very big, but it too still doesn't overtake current DVD/ Blu-ray revenue and it will likely never reach the height that DVD's once had. Also, illegally downloaded or copied movies will continue to cannibalize the revenues of both physical and digital media.
 
Also, illegally downloaded or copied movies will continue to cannibalize the revenues of both physical and digital media.
Exactly! It'd be interesting to compare 720p/1080p "revenues" over torrenting channels vs brick&mortar sales vs online digital sales!
Considering all odds, I still have a feeling that the cumulative online "revenue" is far exceeding the physical media sales. But I have no numbers to back this feeling up.

PS From the start of this thread I feel so weird about the notion "physical and digital media". That's because both DVD and BD are 100% digital media as well.
 
Exactly! It'd be interesting to compare 720p/1080p "revenues" over torrenting channels vs brick&mortar sales vs online digital sales!
Considering all odds, I still have a feeling that the cumulative online "revenue" is far exceeding the physical media sales. But I have no numbers to back this feeling up.

PS From the start of this thread I feel so weird about the notion "physical and digital media". That's because both DVD and BD are 100% digital media as well.
lol true, it's all digital. But here is the breakdown of physical and digital movie sales for the first half of 2013. When the year is up, the new data will be added for the entire 2013.

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So from there you can see that Physical copies, including both Blu-ray and DVD made $3.5 Billion in sells in the first half of 2013, while the revenue for digital movies sold was $490 million for the same time period.

Physical movie rentals revenue was $2 billion. While digital rental revenue was $2.5 Billion. Video On Demand accounted for $1.1 Billion and Subscription Sreaming accounted for $1.5 Billion.


If you add the revenue for physical media between actual sales and rental, total revenue was $5.5 Billion for the first half of 2013, while revenue for digital sell through, streaming and rental was $3 Billion.

Numbers will be higher, especially after the holiday season, but that's how consumer spending was for physical and digital media for the first part of 2013..... Not sure about torrent data though but that should be really high. Some places keep track of the most illegally downloaded films and shows but I forgot which ones. Then you will also have to take into account the people who rent/borrow movies just to copy them lol

But even with all of this, DVD's still make most of the revenue lol.
 
I haven't bought a blu ray in a few years and I ripped a few blu rays, but they take so long. I'll rip my DVDs and I buy from iTunes. I don't care about the "you don't really own it" crap at all. It's on my hard drive, and backed up twice after that. I love the convenice in it, and very happy with my set up. I get iTunes cards so cheap also and free in some cases, so it works out for me nicely.
 
I haven't bought a blu ray in a few years and I ripped a few blu rays, but they take so long. I'll rip my DVDs and I buy from iTunes. I don't care about the "you don't really own it" crap at all. It's on my hard drive, and backed up twice after that. I love the convenice in it, and very happy with my set up. I get iTunes cards so cheap also and free in some cases, so it works out for me nicely.

How do you get them cheap or free?
 
The vast majority of people won't own a 4K television, and even the select few who did buy into the hype won't actually be able to tell the difference from a normal viewing distance (though that won't stop them from telling everyone how much better it looks to them). You'll need a really huge screen (think front projector) to notice the difference with 4K, and 4K front projectors will be insanely expensive for quite a while.

This is 3D all over again and it's going to meet the same fate (dead man walking). I have a 1080p front projector with a very large screen, and I certainly wouldn't mind swapping my projector for a 4K unit, but: a) Front projector owners like me are not the norm, and b) I won't pay top dollar for a 4K projector (My 1080p Epson 8350 set me back about $1300 a little over a year ago and it puts out a great picture).

Truth is, even overly compressed 720p/1080p content looks acceptable on my big screen. Back in the early days, my first exposure to a front projector was a Sony CRT unit. Huge. Three RGB lenses. And 480p (if memory serves). Even DVD hadn't been invented yet (about 430 lines of resolution for laserdisc was the best there was). And, believe it or not, a huge screen paired with that was still an impressive sight to behold.

When it comes to movie watching, I'm a big believer in getting a *bigger* screen and not worrying so much about the resolution. Bigger is better. Get yourself a nice 1080p projector and a big screen and enjoy. For the same money, you could get a much smaller 4K TV, and if you sit 6" away from it you may be impressed by all of that extra resolution, but sitting close to a small TV makes for a poor movie watching experience.

And let's not forget the convenience factor. The world willingly gave up LPs and higher-bitrate CDs for the convenience of MP3. I'd love to watch a 4K movie in my living room, but right now I enjoy having my entire movie collection ripped and stored on disk, so that I can stream my movies at will to whatever room in my house I want to. With 4K you can forget about that. The movies will be too huge to store. So you'd better like having to deal with discs and having to sit through 10 minutes of commercials before you can watch your movie.

My wife and I bought an Epson 8350 projector and a 120" screen last year for $1,500 combined on sale. We sit about 12" (the width of our living room) from the screen, so the picture takes up most of our field of view. Even though a good LED HDTV is brighter and sharper, the Epson produces an excellent picture for the price, and, in my opinion, nothing else equals the impact of sheer size. Something like Lawrence of Arabia needs to be seen on the biggest screen possible. We rarely go to a movie theater anymore. A friend of ours, who has a bigger space, recently upgraded his 120" screen to a 150" screen, which is even more impressive.

As for picture quality, I'm surprised by how good even old home VHS tapes look on our big screen. I thought they'd be unwatchable when blown up to that size. DVDs look very good, and streaming HD content looks even better, but nothing matches the quality of a Blu-Ray disc. The difference between streaming HD and Blu-Ray isn't great, though -- it's noticeable mainly during low-light action scenes, where streaming HD shows artifacts.

Our approach is this: We usually watch things for the first time on Comcast or Netflix. There is very little that we like well enough that we want to own it, but for those few movies or shows that we do want to own, we want the best quality possible -- which means Blu-Ray, if it's available. We wait until it's been out for a while, though, and get it discounted or used on Amazon. We did buy the complete series The Sopranos via iTunes, though, because that's the only place where you can buy it in HD. Only seasons 1 and 6 were released on Blu-Ray.

We've never bought a movie via iTunes. Do you get the extras that come with a DVD or Blu-Ray? If not, that's another reason to get the physical media. A discounted or used Blu-Ray usually is cheaper than the digital version, anyway.

I don't understand why some people are saying that the price per terabyte of storage hasn't come down since 2008. I bought a couple of 4 TB Seagate drives on sale at Costco for $159 each. The regular price is $179. This is from Wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terabyte

In 1991, consumer grade, 1 gigabyte (1/1000 TB) disk drives were available for $2699 and up,[13] and two years later prices for this capacity had dropped to $1499.[14] By 1995, 1 GB drives could be purchased for $849.[15]
  • 2007 1 terabyte hard disk $370 ($417 adjusted for inflation)
  • 2010 2 terabyte hard disk $200 ($214 adjusted for inflation)
  • 2012 4 terabyte hard disk $450 (Hitachi, largest available in consumer market), 1 terabyte hard disk $100
  • 2013 4 terabyte hard disk $179, 3 terabyte hard disk $129, 2 terabyte HD $100, 1 terabyte HD $80

So in 2010, 1 TB cost about $105 (adjusted for inflation), and now 1 TB can be had for $45. They don't give a figure for 2008, but it would have been $300+. I've ripped some of our DVD collection to hard drive, but, honestly, that seems like more trouble that putting a DVD or Blu-Ray disc into the player.

Regardless, when I became a film buff in college circa 1980, I never dreamed that I'd someday be able to own a home theater and copies of the movies I loved. Blu-Rays at 1080P already look so good to me that I can't imagine how 4K could look significantly better, but I'll wait and see.
 
The amount of space we saved going to digital was worth it. I know the quality is not there but who cares when the convenience is great, and is the quality really that bad? I will admit I have jumped into the Blu-ray so I can't really compare the quality.
 
My wife and I bought an Epson 8350 projector and a 120" screen last year for $1,500 combined on sale. We sit about 12" (the width of our living room) from the screen, so the picture takes up most of our field of view. Even though a good LED HDTV is brighter and sharper, the Epson produces an excellent picture for the price, and, in my opinion, nothing else equals the impact of sheer size. Something like Lawrence of Arabia needs to be seen on the biggest screen possible. We rarely go to a movie theater anymore. A friend of ours, who has a bigger space, recently upgraded his 120" screen to a 150" screen, which is even more impressive.
Small world. I, too, have an Epson 8350. My screen is probably a little bigger than yours (I switched to a 2.35:1 format screen shortly after getting my 8350 about a year ago, and for 16:9 content, it might be a bit smaller than a 120" 16:9 screen, but for 2.35:1 movies, it's effectively larger as it fills the screen with no black bars at all). If I'm remembering correctly it's 49.5" x 116". I agree that the bigger the better when it comes to the movie experience.

As for picture quality, I'm surprised by how good even old home VHS tapes look on our big screen. I thought they'd be unwatchable when blown up to that size. DVDs look very good, and streaming HD content looks even better, but nothing matches the quality of a Blu-Ray disc. The difference between streaming HD and Blu-Ray isn't great, though -- it's noticeable mainly during low-light action scenes, where streaming HD shows artifacts.
My signature line on the AVS Forums is "I'd much rather watch a great movie in B&W at 240 lines of resolution than a lousy movie in 1080p with lossless audio." My point there is that a great movie is still enjoyable even in sub-par conditions. An awful movie is still unwatchable even if it's delivered via a pristine 1080p transfer.

But if I had to choose between a great movie delivered at 1080p on a small screen or 480p on a larger screen, I'd go with the latter.

Sorry for getting off-topic. But if the OP wants to discuss projectors and big screens, I'm good with that, too. ;)
 
The problem I have with buying movies off iTunes that I want or TV shows is that a lot of it is on netflix .. so it seems weird to buy when I can just stream. But then again Netflix does add and delete stuff often.
 
I would go full iTunes digital library, but a few issues hold me back.

If I could be 100% sure that what I bought on iTunes was available to me forever, then I would be more inclined to go this way.
I have read a few stories of people purchasing movies via iTunes, only to lose it when the movies rights changed to another studio/holder.

I know the chances of this happening are probably very low, however I would be left very bitter if it did, so I'd rather not take the risk.

The second issue is price. I think iTunes rentals are a great way to avoid buying lots of crap, however I wish they would have some kind of discount on the full purchase price if you've previously rented. It's clearly possible. I rented Drive when it was first available. £4.50. Watched it and immediately wanted to buy it. It's a bummer to then pay full whack for the movie on top of the rental.

The other issue with pricing is TV shows. I know that it's not Apple that's setting the price, but it seems way to inflated. £9.99 for the latest Christmas episode of Downton Abbey. I still cannot fathom how they manage to charge more for an iTunes digital download than a physical DVD box set.

It's a shame because if am fully invested in the Apple ecosystem and the convenience of iTunes in the cloud now is super. These little niggles just hold me back a little.
 
Physical discs take up too much space. I've got in excess of 500 titles and that was after a major cull. Most of my discs are in storage in the basement. Moving forward I think Ill continue to but Star Trek content as physical discs, but try to move towards iTunes/google play.
 
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